Economic Recovery Illusion Is Coming To An End – Episode 927a

The following video was published by X22Report on Mar 24, 2016
British economy slowed and retail sales have declined. French unemployment increases by 1.1 percent. Chinese are purchasing real estate like crazy in Canada pushing the bubble even higher. The initial jobless claims do not match up to ISM services and manufacturing prints. Markit manufacturing signalling a recession. Durable good has declined for 13 months. Harry Dent warns the stock market is overvalued and is due for a major correction

The Big Unwind Hits Investment Banking

Everyone but China.
The meme has been that central-bank-imposed low interest rates and negative interest rates are killing bank earnings, and that oil-and-gas loan loss reserves maul what’s left of these earnings. But it’s tough for banking all around, as the global QE bonanza is bumping into real-world limits. And the Big Unwind has started.
For investment banking revenues, a key income source for ‘systemically important’ banks, it has been one heck of a terrible first quarter, according to Dealogic’s preliminary Global IB Strategy Review. And the damage will show up in earnings reports soon.
If, in the list of fee mayhem below, you frequently stumble across phrases like ‘plunged,’ ‘plummeted,’ ‘lowest since Q1 2009′ when the bond market imploded during the Financial Crisis, or ‘lowest since Q1 2001′ when the dotcom and IPO bubble imploded, it’s because that’s the kind of quarter it has been for investment banks and their lifeblood: extracting big-fat fees coming and going.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ March 24, 2016.

For The Average American, Owning A Home Is Increasingly Unaffordable

One month ago, in its traditionally cheerful assessment of the US housing market, the NAR’s Larry Yun snuck in an unexpected warning:
“Home prices ascending near or above double-digit appreciation aren’t healthy – especially considering the fact that household income and wages are barely rising.“ He did it again just a few days ago:
“The overall demand for buying is still solid entering the busy spring season, but home prices and rents outpacing wages and anxiety about the health of the economy are holding back a segment of would-be buyers.“
This is about as close to a warning that the US housing market is back into bubble territory as one can hope to get from the NAR.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.

In Praise of Moderation

Last week, I was sitting on the couch, goofing around on the computer, watching the primary results come in. Trump won Florida handily. Sanders wasn’t threatening to win this time, but the fact that we are even worried about this guy really speaks to the state of politics in 2016.
I’m going to roll back the clock to 1986, 30 years ago, when American politics was completely different. Remember? We used to complain that Democrats and Republicans were essentially indistinguishable. After all, they used to cross the aisle frequently to vote in favor of the other party’s legislation. I would characterize both parties in 1986 as fairly centrist.
I am a little bit nostalgic for those days.
The cool thing about the Internet is that you get to find out that most people are basically out of their minds. Spend much time on Facebook? You get political opinions on Facebook, for sure – extreme right and extreme left. The vast majority of my Facebook friends are either closet communists or nativist Trumpkins. Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody in between.
When I was in my twenties, I thought being in between meant that you were a sellout, that if you really had any principles you would occupy an extreme position. For a period in my life, you could have called me a pretty extreme libertarian. I’ve come to view political polarization as not being a very good thing.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on MARCH 24, 2016.

Podcast: Huge Government Deficits Coming

If easy money has stopped working, then what’s left? Massive deficits, of course. Pressure is building on governments around the world to increase spending and pay for it with borrowed funds. Sound familiar? It should, since it’s what they’ve been doing on and off for decades. But this time, ‘fiscal stimulus’ will, like QE and NIRP, turn out to be too much of a good thing, with dire consequences for just about everyone.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on March 24, 2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – All Things New

“And the angel said to the women, ‘Do not be afraid. I know you are looking for Jesus, who was crucified. He is not here; He is risen from the dead. Go and tell the others. This is my message to you.’”
Mt 28:5-8
“For God so loved the world…”
John 3:16
Gold and silver were pushed lower today after an early rally attempt.
The US dollar managed to add a little to its multi-day rally.
The Bucket Shop was relatively quiet again for the metals. The reports are included below.
Nothing has changed. Not one thing.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 24 MARCH 2016.

“Why We Need To Beat Russia”

250,000 capitalists read the Financial Times, and it has been our undertaking to chronicle our understanding of capitalism via our book The Philosophy of Capitalism. A USA led team has answered the question ‘What is The Nature of the Monetary System?’ The Monetary system has three layers – the core is Religion and the unconscious mind – as they formed first. The outer layer is operational and intersects with geopolitics, it explains:
Why we need to beat Russia
We may see Syria as a testing ground for Imperial Power. Russia has tested our influence and shown the World it’s wanting, so it’s crucial to appreciate why and of what consequence.
Our Imperial weapons give definite form to our Empire. And nothing has shaped our Empire more than the FIAT. The deformation began in 1971, when the US imposed her Power to re-define the rules of the monetary system for her sole benefit. The ability to print IOU’s in exchange for real value is more clever than theft as we borrow and do not pay back in kind due to inflation. Our enemies, adversaries and vassals must found their financial systems upon the printed dollar which they must purchase with hard earned money. That seizure has financed a vast network of military bases, bribery, assassinations, coup dtats and perpetual war.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.

Mises Daily Thursday: Give Us More Tax Revenue, Or Else

The budget crisis in Louisiana is so bad that it apparently threatens the upcoming college football season. This is according to the state’s new Democratic governor John Bel Edwards. The current yearly budget deficit has reached $940 million. The situation is so dire that higher education in the state faces the realistic possibility of running out of money and taking college sports with it.
Even though all Louisiana state funded colleges are faced with this harsh reality, the focal point of much of the public’s scorn is directed at the possibility of no LSU football this coming season. Much of the old south is Southeastern Conference (SEC) country and college football commands more attention there than even professional sports. Thus, the emotion that comes with the threat of not having LSU football looms much larger in the minds of many Louisianans than the threat of cancellation of other school’s athletics or even the possibility of academic shutdown on campuses. In the land of the SEC, college football will grab headlines over most other issues. This is especially true when its very existence is being threatened.
Upon closer inspection of Louisiana’s state budget, one can see that a major culprit for the deficit has been corporate giveaways. Under former governor Bobby Jindal’s predecessor, money given to the six largest recipients of government subsidies totaled $200 million. But under Jindal, that amount grew to $1 billion. Combine this with the state’s 400 other handouts, plus the raiding of rainy day funds to cover shortfalls and you have a recipe for a budget disaster.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on MARCH 24, 2016.

Emory Students “Scared, In Pain” After Safe-Space Violated By Word “Trump” Written In Chalk

The Daily Mail reports, the president of Emory University has spoken to demonstrators who said they were frightened after someone wrote ‘Trump 2016’ in chalk around campus.
Students at the Atlanta school, which has an enrollment of more than 14,000 claim their ‘safe space’ was violated when the messages appeared on sidewalks and buildings. Jim Wagner, president of the Atlanta university, wrote Tuesday that the students viewed the messages as intimidation, and they voiced ‘genuine concern and pain’ as a result.
He acted after student government wrote to him and slammed the university’s response, prompting a meeting that led to protests.
Now administrators want to track down those responsible for the controversial markings.
Be warned the following “controversial markings” may offend…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.

Trump Is “Loser” In 18 Of 21 Funds, But Individual Stock Picking Record Is “Exactly Perfect”

Listen to experts who say @realDonaldTrump might have more money today if he’d put his inheritance in an index fund & left it alone.
— Elizabeth Warren (@elizabethforma) March 21, 2016

Donald Trump ‘has a good brain and he’s said a lot of things,’ which is why he often ‘speaks with himself’ when he needs advice.
Be that as it may, Trump has apparently chosen to give his ‘good brain’ a well deserved break when it comes to investing the portion of his net worth that isn’t tied up real estate because according to FEC filings, he has some $121 million stashed away in nearly two dozen funds run by a variety of asset managers including John Paulson and BlackRock.
The problem: they’re performing horribly.
‘Eighteen out of 21 hedge funds and mutual funds in Trump’s portfolio lost money in 2015, and 17 of them are down so far this year,’ Reuters reports. ‘The funds managed by Paulson & Co, BlackRock Inc, Baron Capital and others lost an average of 8.5 percent last year and are down another 2.9 percent so far this year.’
‘By the looks of it, Mr. Trump’s investing prowess is very pedestrian,” Brian Shapiro, chief executive of Simplify LLC, which tracks and analyses alternative investments like hedge funds told Reuters.
“For someone who prides himself on being surrounded by the best talent, I’m surprised to see so few winners,” added Brad Alford, an investment advisor and CEO of Alpha Capital Management.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.


Gold: $1,221.40 down $2.30 (comex closing time)
Silver 15.19 down 7 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1217.00
silver: 15.18
(pay no attention to this access knockdown/there is nobody to sell to/all left for the Good Friday holiday)
Let us have a look at the data for today.
At the gold comex today, we had a poor delivery day, registering 12 notices for 1200 ounces and for silver we had 0 notices for nil oz for the active March delivery month.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 212.17 tonnes for a loss of 91` tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest FELL by only 3863 contracts DOWN to 171,913 despite the fact that the silver price was whacked by 61 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading . In ounces, the OI is still represented by .860 billion oz or 123% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by 13,363 contracts to 497,216 contracts as the price of gold was down $24.50 with yesterday’s trading.(at comex closing). I was expecting a larger contraction in OI
This is a huge surprise!!we had a huge deposit of 2.08 tonnes in the GLD despite gold’s drubbing yesterday and today/ thus the inventory rests tonight at 823.74 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver,/we had no changes in inventory tonight, and thus the Inventory rests at 328.914 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on March 24, 2016.

Our survey said

[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.] ‘It is because the public are a mass – inert, obtuse and passive – that they need to be shaken up from time to time so that we can tell from their bear-like grunts where they are – and also where they stand. They are pretty harmless, in spite of their numbers, because they are fighting against intelligence.’
– Alfred Jarry, ‘La Revue Blanche’, 1897.
What – if anything – can we conclude from the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey? The survey was conducted between March 4th and March 10th among 209 panellists managing an aggregate $591 billion in assets. Most types of investment life forms participated, including pension funds, insurers, hedge funds and mutual funds. (Somewhat disconcertingly, the single largest cohort of investment managers described their investment time horizon as ‘3 months or less’. That sounds less like disciplined fund management and more like speculative trading.)
Among the highlights:
Cash levels were down from their recent high of 5.6% in February. This, with hindsight, was an ‘unambiguous buy signal’, since which point stock markets have risen by 11%, high yield by 7%, and oil by 31%. But cash, at 5.1%, is still a shade above its 3-year average of 4.8%. The monthly jump in allocation to commodities was the biggest on record.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on March 21, 2016.

Jihad In Brussels

“Islam belongs in Europe…. I am not afraid to say that political Islam should be part of the picture.” – Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The Western narrative represents a complete refusal to examine the doctrines of Islam, out of fear of offending Muslims. This is not a purely European phenomenon. The Obama Administration ordered a cleansing of training materials that Islamic groups deemed offensive. One crucial aspect of sharia that the West refuses to internalize is the injunction to perform jihad, both violent and non-violent. “[T]he most important factor is Belgium’s culture of denial… Observers who point to unpleasant truths such as the high incidence of crime among Moroccan youth and violent tendencies in radical Islam are accused of being propagandists of the extreme-right, and are subsequently ignored and ostracized.” – Teun Voten, a Dutch cultural anthropologist who lived in a Muslim area of Brussels between 2005 and 2014. Federica Mogherini, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said on June 24, 2015, at a conference aptly named “Call to Europe V: Islam in Europe”:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.

The Bubble Will Burst, But Fed Is Waiting For Politics ‘With Trump Lurking Around’

It’s no conspiracy. The music will soon stop and the economy will take a big hit when the bubble bursts – even the timing has been chosen.
The Fed has been pumping easy money and buying time with future pain for years now, but the worm is turning. Only, the turn is taking a pause so as to avoid helping – yes – Donald Trump and his bid for the presidency.
SHTF just reported on the startling revelation that not only has quantative easing changed the financial landscape in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, but it has been directly responsible for a full 93% of market action since that time.
The Federal Reserve is a leviathan if there ever was one. Even its whispers float boats and sink ships. Easy credit has gone so far beyond the logical extremes, and the proverbial roadrunner has pointed out that we are all hanging out over a cliff.
Contracting the money supply (by raising interest rates) is the snap reaction, but it will hurt. So they are prolonging the pain in order to shift the blame and distract everyone from the real problem as much as possible.
Like everything else, it is now somehow Donald Trump’s fault. This time, because the Fed is a in a position where it supposedly ‘can’t’ raise markets and stabilize the economy.
Via the New York Post:

This post was published at shtfplan on March 24th, 2016.

What Oil Production Freeze: Russia Just Revealed The Laughable Loophole In The OPEC “Agreement”

The main catalyst that pushed the price of oil from a 13 year low in early February, when crude briefly traded in the mid-$20 to well over 50% higher less than one month later in one of the world’s most furious short squeezes, was the recurring infatuation with the fabricated narrative that OPEC would if not cut production then, then at least freeze it.
We mocked this, as recently as one month ago, when we wrote “About That “Oil Freeze”: Russian Crude Production Sets New Post-Soviet Record In February” an article which was self-explanatory:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/24/2016.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – The Gross Mispricing of Risk Enabled By the Fed

“Complexity is often a device for claiming sophistication, or for evading simple truths.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Stocks were lower in light trading volume, and like so many pre-holiday weekend days the light volume allowed trading algos to push the major indices back to unchanged.
VIX stuck its nose up a bit, but was beaten back down in the afternoon.
The Fed is a key enabler, if not one of the primary engineers, of a series of financial bubbles and collapses that act as wealth transferal events from the many to the financial sector and their wealthy few.
US markets will be closed tomorrow. Therefore there will be no market updates posted here.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 24 MARCH 2016.