Ohio: Kascich and Trump both 38%, Cruz 16%. Watch the SE counties; they’re rural and Appalachian, and Trump swept them in Kentucky just over the border. If the turnout is good there the odds go way up that he wins, and being smaller counties they’ll report early.
Florida: Trump 46% (!), Rubio 22% (!!!), Cruz 14%. As I have repeatedly pointed out Rubio is smoked up here in the Panhandle, and without the non-urban areas west of Tallahassee voting for you as a Republican you cannot win this state. I’ve seen a decent number of Cruz signs around these parts, but zero Rubio ones, and nobody I know is voting for him here. He’s done.
Note that Cruz is third in both of the most-recent polls in these two states. Anything other than first is worth zero in these two contests.
North Carolina isn’t looking good for Cruz either: 45% Trump (!), 33% Cruz, 11% Kascich and dead last 7% for Rubio. Both Cruz and Trump gained equally from a collapse in Rubio’s numbers; Cruz did not get his votes by majority in any way.
This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2016-03-14.