US Stocks Are The Most Overbought In 12 Years

With GAAP valuations topping 22x, macro data weakening everywhere, and US equities at their most overbought since 2004, what could possibly go wrong?
The McClellan Oscillator has reached over 90 which represents a highly overbought level. However, more amazingly, if you look at it through the lens of a monthly chart there is no evidence of any correction ever having taken place in 2016. No red whatsoever

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

Introducing The New QE- Quantitative Expropriation, Thanks To NIRPitrage

This explication of quantitative expropriation is excerpted from the semiweekly examination of Fed balance sheet manipulation and banking system elevation, part of the Pro Trader Macroliquidity services.
While US bank loan and deposit growth continues to go bonkers at annual growth rates of more than 8% for loans and around 6% for deposits, loan and deposit growth in Europe are near zero. That’s in spite of the fact that Mario Draghi and his merry band of madmen central bankers have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at their system to try to get it to grow.
Macroliquidity Pro Trader weekly subscribers (or Professional Edition), click here to download complete report in pdf format. Macroliquidity Investor Monthly subscribers, click here to download complete report.
But here’s the thing. NIRPitrage is killing them. At the same time, it is boosting the US markets. In this report I do a little show and tell on the details of what is going on and how it works.
Unfortunately, Mario Draghi is such a raving, foaming-at-the-mouth madman, that he is likely to do even more of what is causing NIRPitrage to simultaneously strangle Europe slowly to death and send cascades of capital into the US, the Last Ponzi Game Standing.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Lee Adler ‘ March 2, 2016.

Striking Admission By Former Bank Of England Head: The European Depression Was A “Deliberate” Act

Once again we find that it is only after they leave their official posts that central bankers finally tell the truth.
Last night, it was Alan Greenspan who blasted the state of the economy, saying that “we’re in trouble basically because productivity is dead in the water” and when asked if he is optimistic going forward, Greenspan replied “no, I haven’t been for quite a while.”
Then on Sunday, the former head of the BOE, Mervyn King, warned that another aspect of the global economy, namely the financial system whose structural problems remain untouched since the financial crisis have been untouched, is “certain to have another crisis.”
To be sure, warnings by former central bankers who are more responsible about the current global mess sound as nothing but revisionist bullshit. And yet, it was what King said today at the launch of his new book that left us surprised.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

Warren Buffett’s extraordinary delusion about America

Before there was an America, before there was a Britain, before even Rome and Ancient Greece, there was Assyria.
For more than five centuries, the Assyrian empire was the wealthiest, strongest superpower in the world.
If you could go back thousands of years during the reign of Ashurbanipal and suggested even the possibility that the Assyrian Empire would decline (let alone cease to exist) you would have probably been executed.
The mere thought was heresy.
Of course, once empires reach their apogees they always assume that they’re entitled to the top spot forever.
But the historical record is filled with former superpowers who fall victim to their own narcissism. And yet the pattern continues to repeat.
Today is no different. The political and financial establishment in the Land of the Free refuses to acknowledge the obvious data evidencing America’s decline in wealth and power.
One of those members of the establishment is Warren Buffett, America’s self-appointed Minister of Economic Good Cheer.
With grandfatherly charm, Buffett always seems to find the silver lining.
And that’s certainly great – there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic.
But to anchor one’s optimism in this absurd notion of ‘once a superpower, always a superpower’ is absolutely nuts.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on March 2, 2016.

‘No Bread’ – This Is What Happens When Your Economic And Monetary Systems Collapse

While Americans still enjoy easy access to basic necessities like food and medicine, the last several years have shown us just how bad things can get when it all hits the fan.
When the country of Greece collapsed in 2012 we highlighted the desperate situation faced by its millions of residents:
With untold billions in private and public sector debt, the situation in Greece (and other debt laden European countries like Spain and Italy) has devolved to such an extent that some EU member nations are mobilizing their military personnel in preparation for full spectrum meltdown across the entire region.
Jobs are so scarce that many have been forced into underground barter economies and family farming to make ends meet. From massive austerity spending cuts that have torn to shreds the government social safety net, toshortages in critical life saving medicines and the near breakdown of the nation’s power grid, Greece is experiencing all of the overt signs of a nation on its last leg.
It’s a story that we have seen time and again throughout history, and one that is once again playing out before our eyes. Though the economic factors that trigger a crisis may be different, the outcome is often the same for the general populace.
We need look no further than the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, where the government has tried everything from currency devaluations and price controls to blaming the country’s malaise on ‘hoarders’ and speculators who purportedly drove up prices. As anger and frustration gripped the country, the government took unprecedented steps to restore order, to no avail:

This post was published at shtfplan on March 2nd, 2016.

Great Depression Redux: First Currency War, Now US Unleashes Trade War With China

Given the vicious downward spiral of competitive devaluation that is washing around the world’s economic bathtub, it appears – just as we saw during The Great Depression – that currency wars have given way to mal-investment-fueled protectionism as US launches the first missile in the trade wars with a massive 266% tariff on imports of cold-rolled steel. ‘There’ll be a short-term benefit,’ said John Packard of Steel Market Update. ‘However, in the long run, the U. S. mills are always going to want more tariffs, and it’s questionable how much more [protection] they can get.”
In December, we warned of China’s flooding the world with its unwanted commodities – all created and warehoused in the biggest credit-bubble-fueled mass mal-investment “boom” in human history…as Bloomberg notes, shipments of steel, oil products and aluminum are reaching for new highs, according to trade data from the General Administration of Customs.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Counting the Cars on the NJ Turnpike

“It does not matter how small the sins are, provided that their cumulative effect is to edge the man away from the Light and out into the Nothing. Indeed the safest road to Hell is the gradual one–the gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.”
C. S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Gold and silver managed to poke their heads a little higher today, struggling against strongly defended overhead resistance.
There were some deliveries in the Comex licensed gold and silver warehouses as noted on the reports below.
Reform ignored still comes, sooner or later. What might have once been clear and simple at first has been made into something more complicated by long repression and denial. What is both wondrous, and awful, is when that change finally comes, and what may be coming with it.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 MARCH 2016.

The Recovery Is An Illusion, 36 States Have Not Recovered – Episode 908a

The following video was published by X22Report on Mar 2, 2016
French bank warns that if the recession continues it will cause the Euro zone to collapse. Britain is claiming if they exit the EU they will be unsafe and weaker. ADP jobs report showing everything is ok, but once again the report is manipulated. Sport Authority is bankrupt and closing stores, more corporations are laying off. Mortgage apps are declining, manufacturing is declining and out of the 50 states 36 have not fully recovered. Russia will be freezing oil prices to the January 2016 price level.

Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 13: The Unprotected Push Back

Peggy Noonan, former Reagan administration speech writer and current Wall Street Journal pundit has, like most of her peers, been wondering what’s gotten into the unwashed masses lately that makes them such unpredictable voters. And she’s come up with a useful conclusion: The rise of Donald Trump (and similar iconoclasts in other countries) is due to the gradual division of society into the protected – that is, people who make the rules and therefore benefit from them – and the unprotected, who don’t make the rules and end up getting screwed. The latter have finally figured this out and have stopped supporting the former. Here’s her latest OpEd piece, in its entirety:
Trump and the Rise of the Unprotected: Why political professionals are struggling to make sense of the world they created.
We’re in a funny moment. Those who do politics for a living, some of them quite brilliant, are struggling to comprehend the central fact of the Republican primary race, while regular people have already absorbed what has happened and is happening. Journalists and politicos have been sharing schemes for how Marco parlays a victory out of winning nowhere, or Ted roars back, or Kasich has to finish second in Ohio. But in my experience any nonpolitical person on the street, when asked who will win, not only knows but gets a look as if you’re teasing him. Trump, they say. I had such a conversation again Tuesday with a friend who repairs shoes in a shop on Lexington Avenue. Jimmy asked me, conversationally, what was going to happen. I deflected and asked who he thinks is going to win. ‘Troomp!’ He’s a very nice man, an elderly, old-school Italian-American, but I saw impatience flick across his face: Aren’t you supposed to know these things?

This post was published at DollarCollapse on March 2, 2016.

Oil Options Traders Ain’t Buying It – Bearish Bets Biggest In A Year

Despite Andy Hall’s wish hope forecast guess statement that “the bottom is in,” for crude (and oil analysts unicorn-like forecast of $47 by year-end), it seems oil options traders disagree significantly.
The cost of protect against downside risk is the highest it has been in a year, despite underlying oil prices being at 8-week highs.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

Always Watched, Always Monitored, Always Recorded

Trade Slump
BALTIMORE – When we left you yesterday, we were discussing the War on Cash – the push by governments to abolish physical currency. It is a fraud. The idea is not to fight crime or boost the economy, as its proponents claim. It is part of a bigger campaign by the Deep State to take more control over your money… and your life.
We’ll return to our theme in a moment. But first… an update on the markets and the economy. It came out last week that world trade did indeed fall in 2015. It was the first time this had happened since 2009.
Starting at the end of last year, we began following the trains, trucks, ships, and sales of ‘yellow machines’ – backhoes, loaders, bulldozers, etc. – and watching them all slow down.
Sure enough, they were telling us something important. Reports the Financial Times:
‘The value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 14% in dollar terms.’
Most notably, a decline in world trade means China is not exporting as much merchandise as before. This, we guessed, would mean a greater outflow of foreign exchange reserves from China’s central bank… and make it more difficult for it to prop up the exchange value of the renminbi.

This post was published at Acting-Man on March 2, 2016.

A Secret About Oil You Won’t Find Anywhere Else

In early 1983 – the first week of February, to be precise – the inventory of crude oil in the U. S. reached an all-time economic high. I say ‘economic high’ because nominal supply of crude oil has since far surpassed its 1983 number. In fact, current U. S. crude-oil inventory (504 million barrels) is the actual all-time high. Supply today is about 150 million barrels more than total supply in 1983.
Obviously, we have a lot more oil in storage than we’ve ever had before – about 40% more. But nominal supply numbers aren’t as important as you might think. Demand for crude oil in our economy has grown a lot since 1983.
To make a bona fide ‘apples-to-apples’ comparison to today’s supply glut, we should measure the amount of oil supply relative to consumption. In 1983, the number of days’ worth of consumption in the U. S. hit a peak of 33.4. That’s the largest amount of crude oil we’ve ever held in private storage, relative to demand. That’s the all-time highest amount of ‘economic supply’ – supply in relation to actual demand.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Porter Stansberry ‘ March 2, 2016.

“How To Move To Canada” Searches Spike 1,000% After Trump Super Tuesday Rout

Super Tuesday sure was ‘super’ for Donald Trump.
The billionaire – who has gone from ‘joke’ to ‘frontrunner’ in the span of just 9 months – is now the presumed pick for the GOP nomination.
That’s rattled the Republican establishment and sent shockwaves through Washington where no one – and we mean on one – can figure out how this happened.
And while citizens clearly believe Trump is preferable to America’s entrenched political aristocracy, there are quite a few people who have very real reservations about the prospects of a Trump presidency. As we noted earlier this week, readers will likely disagree with a number of Larry Summers’ points, but the bottom line is that some Americans are concerned about the direction the coutnry will take under a Trump presidency.
As The Telegraph notes, searches by Americans for ‘how can I move to Canada’ were up more than 1,000% at their peak after Trump’s Super Tuesday victory.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

ADP Employment Surprises 214K, But Quality Not Quantity Matters

I have a headache watching CNBC. The announcement of 214K jobs added in February led talking heads to proclaim ‘The Fed HAS to raise rates now!’ Take Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, for example:
‘Despite the turmoil in the global financial markets, the American job machine remains in high gear. Energy and manufacturing remain blemishes on the job market, but other sectors continue to add strongly to payrolls. Full-employment is fast approaching.’
To be sure, the US economy is adding jobs at a fairly steady rate since 2011. Unfortunately, many of those jobs are low wage jobs of not the finest quality.
Look at real median household income and average weekly earnings (3 month average growth YoY). Both measures are lower than they were prior to 2008 and The Great Recession.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ March 2, 2016.

Buy Gold in 2016 Because of These Two ‘Flashing’ Signals

One of our top recommendations at Money Morning this year is that investors should buy gold in 2016. While gold prices have climbed already in 2016, there are two ‘flashing’ signals that show the price of gold will climb even higher this year.
Before we get to those signals, here’s how gold prices have trended in 2016…
Gold prices are enjoying the best start to a year since 1980. The price of goldis up 16.06% so far this year, easily outpacing and other commodities. The gold pricegained 10.5% last month. That marked the metal’s best monthly gain in four years as benchmarks moved out of correction and bear market territory.
Gold prices are off to positive start in March as well. The gold price was up $5.90, or 0.48%, at $1,238.60 an ounce in early trading this morning (Wednesday).

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Diane Alter ‘ March 2, 2016.


Gold: $1,241.40 up $10.80 (comex closing time)
Silver 15.00 up 27 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1240.50
silver: 14.91
At the gold comex today, we had a strong delivery day, registering 390 notices for 3900 ounces and for Silver surprisingly saw only 10 notices for 50,000 oz for the active March delivery month. They must have problems sourcing silver!
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 210.79 tonnes for a loss of 92 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest rose by 88 contracts up to 162,293. In ounces, the OI is still represented by .811 billion oz or 116% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China). Generally as we go into an active delivery month the liquidation is much bigger.
In silver we had 10 notices served upon for 50,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI rose by a tiny 89 contracts to 450,555 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold was down $3.60 with yesterday’s trading.(at comex closing)
We had another huge change in gold inventory at the GLD, a mammoth sized deposit of 9.83 tonnes and gold goes down early this morning? and rises only slightly? / thus the inventory rests tonight at 786.20 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver,/we had no changes in inventory tune of and thus the Inventory rests at 311.618 million oz
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on March 2, 2016.

Can US Equities Go Green For The Year?

Via ConvergEx’s Nicholas Colas,
With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: ‘Can U. S. equities go green on the year?’ The S&P 500 is now down ‘just’ 3.2% in 2016 and there’s nothing like a 2% one-day rally to hold out hope of actual gains before March 31.
To think through this question, we outline the scenarios that DO push equities higher (a good jobs number, a quiescent Fed, and good economic data) and compare them to those that DON’T (presidential politics, oil prices, and corporate fundamentals). To our thinking, it’s a coin toss either way. For the bullish camp, we recommend Financials – laggards YTD, but set for a rally based on the catalysts that might move markets higher. And for the bears: the biggest winners YTD (Utilities, Staples and Telecomm) along with gold and Treasuries.
Nothing is working the way it’s supposed to, at least lately. Just consider a few of yesterday’s headlines:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Richard Cory

Stocks were drifting a bit today, consolidating the big gains from the first day of March yesterday.
The ADP jobs number was better than expected this morning, which caused some to reflect on the coming Non-Farm Payrolls Report, and the likely actions of the Fed at their March FOMC meeting.
In other news, the ex-CEO and fabled ‘father of US shale oil,’ one of Oklahoma City’s leading citizens, and NBA team co-owner Aubrey McCendon died last night in a fiery car crash. Police are investigating. There were no other cars involved, and no skid marks on the road. Mr. McCendon went off the road in his car at a very high rate of speed. They said he ‘drove straight into a wall.’
Mr. Mcclendon had been indicted yesterday by the Justice Department with conspiracy in rigging the prices of oil leases and using loans to benefit his personal stakes in wells from the company.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 MARCH 2016.

China Presses Its Maritime Luck, Blocks Access To Fishing Lanes

‘No fishing for you!’
We suppose it was only a matter of time, but Beijing has now escalated the South China Sea dispute.
The waters around the Spratlys have become the subject of international diplomacy after China decided to dredge up 3,000 acres of new sovereign territory in what amounts to the most epic sand castle building exercise in maritime history.
The world first caught on to what China was up to (and no, that’s not derogatory because they were literally ‘up to something’), early last year when satellite images depicted rapid construction on Fiery Cross Reef. The situation escalated quickly and before you knew it, the PLA was warning a Poseidon spy plane with a CNN crew aboard to ‘go now’ in a move that pretty clearly indicated China intended to establish a no-fly zone over its new islands.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/02/2016.