• Tag Archives WTI
  • Record High Stocks, Record Low VIX But Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid

    Buy it all… On the week – Stocks are up, Treasury Bonds are up, Corporate Bonds are up, Gold is up, Bitcoin is up, and WTI Crude is up…


    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 13, 2017.


  • Global Stocks Hit New Record High, Dollar Mixed After Dovish Fed

    In a trend observed every day this week, S&P futures are slightly in the red ahead of a post-open ramp with the VIX rising to 9.91, as Asian shares climb, European stocks are little changed. WTI crude pares recent gains, slipping below $51 after API showed an unexpected crude build. Earnings season launches with bank earnings reports from JPMorgan and Citigroup, while Economic data include PPI figures, jobless claims.
    As Reuters notes, broader investor risk sentiment has improved this week after Catalonia dialed back plans to break away from Spain, with MSCI’s 47-country world stocks index reaching a record high. Global equities now appear to be taking geopolitical developments such as the secessionist push in Spain and tensions on the Korean peninsula in their stride, to reach those record tops.
    Analysts will be keeping a close eye on banks Q3 reports: Trading probably dropped from the same period a year earlier. Executives from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. told investors last month to expect declines ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., coming off its worst first half for the trading business in more than a decade, said the third quarter remained challenging. Subdued volatility, especially compared with the turmoil from Brexit and the U. S. election a year earlier — made the period particularly tough.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 12, 2017.


  • OPEC To Take Drastic Action Despite Shale Slowdown

    WTI recently dipped below $50 per barrel for the first time in a month, erasing the strong September rally. It’s no coincidence that after two weeks of price declines, OPEC has tried to talk up the oil market again, hinting that more drastic action could be forthcoming.
    Echoing the world’s top central bankers, OPEC’s Secretary General said that the oil cartel might need to take ‘extraordinary’ measures to balance the oil market next year. ‘There is a growing consensus that, number one, the re-balancing process is underway,’ OPEC’s Mohammad Barkindo told reporters on Sunday in New Delhi. ‘Number two, to sustain this into next year, some extraordinary measures may have to be taken in order to restore this stability on a sustainable basis going forward.’
    As always, OPEC is vague on the specifics, but the working assumption is that the group will agree to an extension of the cuts until at least mid-2018, or perhaps even as late as through the end of the year. There’s been some discussion about deeper production cuts, but there aren’t a ton of analysts who see OPEC going that far, despite Barkindo’s cryptic language.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2017.


  • “All-In” Hedge-Funds Turn Cautious Ahead Of OPEC As Oil Prices Stumble

    With WTI back below the Maginot Line of $50, speculative investors are growing increasingly anxious about their record extreme bullish positioning across the energy complex.
    As Reuters’ John Kemp reports, hedge fund bullishness towards crude oil and refined products including gasoline and diesel appears to have peaked for now, according to an analysis of regulatory and exchange records.
    Speculative traders’ positioning across crude and especially refined fuels had looked increasingly lopsided in recent weeks as fund managers turned from very bearish in June to super-bullish by the end of September.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 9, 2017.


  • WTI/RBOB Plunge On Saudi, Russia Comments; Rig Count Resumes Decline

    WTI and RBOB are plunging following comments from the Saudi minister that “he doesn’t know” if November meeting will agree on a production cut deal extension, and Russia’s Novak confirmed that there is “no clarity” on a deal extension.
    Saudi Arabia will work with Russia to reach a consensus in the next few weeks before the Nov. 30 OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Vienna, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih says at a meeting with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Moscow. OPEC and non-OPEC producers will discuss ‘what to do beyond March’ at that meeting: Al-Falih
    Both ministers say it’s too early to say whether or not the November meeting will yield an agreement to extend the production cuts
    Amid higher OPEC production and the prompt return of supplies from Libya, futures prices are under pressure.
    After last week’s surprise rise (+6) in the rig count, the US Oil rig count declined by 2 this week to 748…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles Below $50 To 3-Week Lows

    On the heels of continued dollar strength, output increases by OPEC (and US production at 2 year highs), and Libya restarting its biggest oilfield, WTI prices are tumbling for the 3rd time this week, back below $50 to their lowest in 3 weeks…
    As Bloomberg notes, while oil rallied into a bull market last month on the prospect of stronger demand, prices struggled to hold above $52 a barrel as supply grew from the U. S. and two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that are exempt from making cuts.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.


  • The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2017 YTD

    While September and Q3 were the latest solid month for US risk assets, which ended the month and quarter at all time highs, across the globe returns were relatively more mixed for the sample of assets tracked by Deutsche Bank. That said, a large number of assets (21 of 39 in local currency terms) finished with a total return between -1% and +1% which in part reflects another month of incredibly low volatility with the VIX in particular spending much of it trading between 9.5 and 11.0. In the end, excluding currencies 19 out of 39 assets finished the month with a positive total return in local currency and USD hedged terms.
    As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid reports this morning, in terms of the movers and shakers, commodities dominated the top of the German bank’s leaderboard with Wheat (+9%), WTI (+9%) and Brent (+8%) all finishing with a high single digit return. It’s worth noting however that this does follow heavy falls for the price of Wheat and WTI in August. Equities generally had a strong month, particularly in Europe where a slightly weaker euro (-1%) aided local currency returns. The DAX (+6%), FTSE MIB (+5%), Stoxx 600 (+4%), Portugal General (+4%) and IBEX (+1%) all finished firmer – the latter underperforming however reflecting elevated tension around the Catalan referendum. Returns in USD terms were 0% to +6%. It’s worth also noting the return for European Banks (+5% local, +4% USD) which got a boost from the slightly higher rate environment. There were two standout underperformers in equity markets however. The first was the Greek Athex which tumbled -8% in local terms although still remains up an impressive +19% YTD. The other was the FTSE 100 which fell -1% under the weight of a strong month for Sterling (+4%) following the BoE signalling an imminent rate hike as well as some progress around Brexit talks. Indeed in USD terms the FTSE 100 was up +3%.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 2, 2017.


  • WTI Hovers Above $50 As US Oil Rig Count Slides To 3-Month Lows

    With crude production rebounding back to pre-Harvey levels, and refinery demand coming back on-line, WTI has trod water around $50 all week. The US oil rig count dropped for the 6th straight week (down 5 to 744), back at its lowest level since early June.
    *U. S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 744 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US *U. S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 4 TO 190 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US As Bloomberg reports, it looks like shale billionaire Harold Hamm might be right in saying U. S. producers are being more cautious than government output forecasts seem to imply.
    At least that’s what the Baker Hughes weekly drilling report suggests, showing producers idled five oil rigs this week, adding to 19 parked over the previous five weeks.
    The numbers released every Friday increasingly make it look like the drilling boom might have peaked, and that should impact output down the road.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 22, 2017.


  • Global Markets Spooked By North Korea H-Bomb Threat; Focus Turns To Brexit Speech

    S&P futures retreated along with European and Asian shares with tech, and Apple supplier shares leading the drop while safe havens such as gold and the yen rose, as the war of words between U. S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. Trade focus now turns to a planned speech by Theresa May on Brexit (full preview here).
    As reported last night, the key overnight event was the latest threat by North Korea that its counter-measure may mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific, according to reports in Yonhap citing North Korea’s Foreign Minister. North Korea’s leader Kim said North Korea will consider “corresponding, highest level of hard-line measure in history” against US, while he also stated that President Trump’s UN speech was rude nonsense and demonstrated insanity and inhumanity which confirmed North Korea’s nuclear and missile advances are on right path and will continue to the end. There was more on the geopolitical front with the Iranian President
    informing armed forces that the nation will bolster its missile
    capabilities, according to local TV.
    As a result, treasury yields pulled back and the dollar slid the most in two weeks following North Korea’s threat it could test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index edged lower as a rout in base metals deepened, weighing on mining shares. WTI crude halted its rally above $50 a barrel as OPEC members gathered in Vienna.
    US stock futures pulled back 0.1% though markets were showing growing signs of fatigue over the belligerent U. S.-North Korea rhetoric. ‘North Korea poses such a binary risk that it’s very hard to price, and at the moment investors just have to look through it,’ said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Despite the latest jitters, MSCI’s world equity index remained on track for another weekly gain, holding near its latest record high hit on Wednesday as investors’ enthusiasm for stocks showed few signs of waning.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 22, 2017.


  • Oil Prices Today Are Finally Rebounding and Will Hit This Target Before 2018

    Oil prices today (Tuesday, Sept. 19) are trading above $50 a barrel, which puts oil on track for its highest closing price since July. And we predict oil prices will head even higher before the end of the year, too…
    WTI crude oil prices are trading at $50.26 a barrel today and are up 3.5% since just last week, when they opened at $48.23 on Thursday.
    Oil prices continue to rebound after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma wiped out demand across the southeast United States. The destruction of pipelines, refineries, and commerce across Florida and the Gulf Coast region meant oil pumped out of the ground was being stored instead of used. That boosted supplies and lowered prices. Commercial crude supplies rose 2.2% between the weeks of Aug. 25 and Sept. 8.
    Oil prices fell 4% between Aug. 25 and Aug. 30 as Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas, and they fell 3.2% between Sept. 7 and Sept. 12 as Irma barreled through the Caribbean and Florida.
    Oil prices have struggled to stay above the $50 a barrel mark this year, despite OPEC renewing its oil production cut in May.
    But our oil price forecast shows oil prices will continue to rise in 2017, and one important oil price indicator shows it’s about to happen soon…

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Dustin Parrett ‘ September 19, 2017.


  • WTI/RBOB Jump After Smaller Than Expected Crude Build

    After last week’s record-breaking draw in Gasoline stocks, and big crude build, the noise from Harvey and Irma disruptions continues to add volatility to the data. API reported a smaller than expected crude build and bigger than expected gasoline (and distillates) draw sent prices for both WTI and RBOB higher.
    API
    Crude +1.43mm (+3.9mm exp) Cushing +420k (+900k exp) Gasoline -5.063mm (-2.13mm exp) Distillates-6.13mm A smaller than expected crude build and considerably bigger than expected draws in gasoline and distillates…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 19, 2017.


  • Crude Is Getting Slammed After China Headlines

    WTI crude is suddenly tumbling. While it’s unclear of the specific catalyst (storms outweighing most other events), desk chatter suggests it is due to a story in The FT that China is striving to reduce capacity of its ‘teapot’ oil refineries – thus cutting demand notably.
    Beijing’s push to use crude import quotas and licences as a tool to spur consolidation within China’s independent refining sector is working to correct an industry that has grown ‘out of control’. A new report from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy argues the number of privately owned ‘teapot’ refineries will shrink over the next decade as larger, sophisticated plants thrive at the expense of smaller rivals. Consolidation comes as the industry faces pressures from overcapacity, a battle for market share between independent and state-owned companies and slower demand for refined products. Large plants with higher utilisation rates and greater access to imported crude had already begun acquiring smaller plants that had not been granted the same rights by Beijing.
    ‘The government does not want dozens of refineries running at 40-50 per cent capacity,’ said Erica Downs, the author of the report.
    ‘Beijing is correcting a course for an industry that has gotten out of control.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 8, 2017.


  • Copper, Oil, Gold and US Stocks: Big Picture Status

    Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading.
    First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral resistance at a handy 38% Fib retrace.**
    * Well, insofar as I own UUP and EUO, it has not been fruitful; but that is the whole point because the positions are just a partial hedge against what has been a very successful long deployment in items rising against the declining USD. Still not thinking of dropping long-USD positioning, and I remember how long it took to see my bullish Treasury bond view get proven out against the herds earlier this year.

    ** Insert here the usual stuff about targets and resistance points being objectives, not stop signs.
    Crude Oil sported a bullish looking pattern last year but has faded this year. The pattern is still viable. I am not currently an oil bull, but if at any time you see WTIC go above 55, plan on 75.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 September 2017.


  • WTI Algos Uncertain After Gasoline Inventories Draw But Crude Production Surges

    WTI crude prices managed to scramble back up to pre-API-tumble levels ahead of DOE’s data dump this morning with all eyes on gasoline inventories, which did not disappoint showing a small draw (in line with expectations) along with crude’s draw which was roughly in line with API and expectations. Production continues to rise to highest since July 2015.
    API
    Crude -3.595mm (-3.5mm exp) Cushing -462k (+300k exp) Gasoline +1.402mm (-1mm exp) Distillates +2.048mm DOE
    Crude -3.33mm (-3.5mm exp) Cushing -503k (+300k exp) Gasoline -1.22mm (-1.25mm exp) Distillates +28k

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 23, 2017.


  • Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As ‘Traders’ Panic-Buy Crude Futures

    The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today’s sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its 3rd weekly close lower as BNP notes the “whole supply surplus story is not likely to go away anytime soon.”
    *U. S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US *U. S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 1 TO 182 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US As we have noted previously, this inflection point in the rig count fits with the rolover in crude prices…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 18, 2017.


  • Stock Market Warning Siren is Blaring

    Are we blinded yet by the brilliance of corporate earnings?
    ‘Adjusted’ earnings growth is 10.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to FactSet, based on the 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results. The energy sector was a key driver, with 332% ‘adjusted’ earnings growth from the oil-bust levels of a year ago.
    The sectors with double-digit earnings growth: information technology (14.7%), utilities (10.8%), and financials (10.3%). The rest were single digit. Earnings in the consumer discretionary sector declined.
    Revenues grew 5.1%, also led by the energy sector. At the beginning of Q2 last year, the WTI grade of crude oil traded at $35 a barrel. In Q2 this year, WTI ranged from $42 to $53 a barrel.
    So the Wall-Street hype machine is cranking at maximum RPM to propagate the great news that earnings are soaring, and that this is the reason why stocks should also be soaring, and forget everything else. The hype machine carefully avoids showing the bigger picture which is dismal for earnings and ludicrous for stock valuations.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Aug 12, 2017.


  • WTI/RBOB Sink After Biggest Gasoline Build In 7 Months, Production Hits New Cycle High

    Last night’s mixed bag from API has been dominated by ‘war premium’ in oil prices as WTI bounced off $49 ahead of the DOE report which confirmed that gasoline inventories surprisingly built (+3.42mm vs -1.5mm exp) – the biggest build since January – and Crude inventories drew (though less than API). Crude production in the Lower 48 rose to 9.048mm b/d – a new cycle high.
    API
    Crude -7.839mm (-2.2mm exp) Cushing +319k Gasoline +1.529mm (-1.5mm exp) Distillates -157k DOE
    Crude -6.45mm (-2.2mm exp) Cushing +569k Gasoline +3.42mm (-1.5mm exp) Distillates -1.73mm (-500k exp)

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 9, 2017.


  • WTI Slides After Disappointing Crude Draw & Production Surge

    WTI prices dumped on last night’s surprise crude build but have limped back above $49 heading into the DOE prints this morning (although Russia sanctions headlines dipped it). DOE did not help as the report was a disappointment for the bulls with production rising to a new cycle high, crude inventories drawing less than expected but total U. S. oil inventories (that’s crude plus all products, including the often volatile “other oil” category) rose by 1.1 million barrels last week.
    API
    Crude +1.78mm (-3.1mm exp) Cushing +2.562mm (-700k exp) Gasoline -4.827mm (-1mm exp) Distillates -1.225mm DOE
    Crude -1.53mm (-3.1mm exp) Cushing -39k (-700k exp) Gasoline -2.52mm (-1mm exp) Distillates -150k

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 2, 2017.


  • Dow To Rise Above 22,000 On Apple Earnings; Europe Pressured By Surging Euro

    Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.8% after Apple surged to record highs following a strong beat and optimistic projections ahead of the launch of the company’s new batch of iPhones. Eminis are little changed, up 0.1% to 2,475, trailing Asian markets, while European stocks and crude oil fall.
    Apple surged 6% after-hours to a new record highm taking its market capitalization above $830 billion. That should help carry the Dow through the 22,000 mark when the market opens. Among Asia’s Apple suppliers, LG Innnotek jumped 10 percent and SK Hynix, the world’s second-biggest memory chip maker, rose 3.8 percent. Murata Manufacturing firmed 4.9 percent and Taiyo Yuden 4.4 percent, helping the Nikkei up 0.47 percent.
    “It is all about Apple,” said Naeem Aslam chief market analyst at Think Markets. “The firm comfortably topped its forecast and produced stellar numbers for its revenue and profit.
    Oil came under pressure again as higher than expected US inventories and reports of rising OPEC output helped drive prices below back below $48/bbl (WTI crude). In FX markets, the USD dollar gave up some gains late in the session with DXY edging down by 0.1% and the euro rising to $1.1827. Treasury yields are 0.5-2bps higher across the curve with the 10y at 2.273%.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 2, 2017.