• Tag Archives WTI
  • Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As ‘Traders’ Panic-Buy Crude Futures

    The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today’s sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its 3rd weekly close lower as BNP notes the “whole supply surplus story is not likely to go away anytime soon.”
    *U. S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US *U. S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 1 TO 182 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US As we have noted previously, this inflection point in the rig count fits with the rolover in crude prices…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 18, 2017.


  • Stock Market Warning Siren is Blaring

    Are we blinded yet by the brilliance of corporate earnings?
    ‘Adjusted’ earnings growth is 10.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to FactSet, based on the 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results. The energy sector was a key driver, with 332% ‘adjusted’ earnings growth from the oil-bust levels of a year ago.
    The sectors with double-digit earnings growth: information technology (14.7%), utilities (10.8%), and financials (10.3%). The rest were single digit. Earnings in the consumer discretionary sector declined.
    Revenues grew 5.1%, also led by the energy sector. At the beginning of Q2 last year, the WTI grade of crude oil traded at $35 a barrel. In Q2 this year, WTI ranged from $42 to $53 a barrel.
    So the Wall-Street hype machine is cranking at maximum RPM to propagate the great news that earnings are soaring, and that this is the reason why stocks should also be soaring, and forget everything else. The hype machine carefully avoids showing the bigger picture which is dismal for earnings and ludicrous for stock valuations.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Aug 12, 2017.


  • WTI/RBOB Sink After Biggest Gasoline Build In 7 Months, Production Hits New Cycle High

    Last night’s mixed bag from API has been dominated by ‘war premium’ in oil prices as WTI bounced off $49 ahead of the DOE report which confirmed that gasoline inventories surprisingly built (+3.42mm vs -1.5mm exp) – the biggest build since January – and Crude inventories drew (though less than API). Crude production in the Lower 48 rose to 9.048mm b/d – a new cycle high.
    API
    Crude -7.839mm (-2.2mm exp) Cushing +319k Gasoline +1.529mm (-1.5mm exp) Distillates -157k DOE
    Crude -6.45mm (-2.2mm exp) Cushing +569k Gasoline +3.42mm (-1.5mm exp) Distillates -1.73mm (-500k exp)

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 9, 2017.


  • WTI Slides After Disappointing Crude Draw & Production Surge

    WTI prices dumped on last night’s surprise crude build but have limped back above $49 heading into the DOE prints this morning (although Russia sanctions headlines dipped it). DOE did not help as the report was a disappointment for the bulls with production rising to a new cycle high, crude inventories drawing less than expected but total U. S. oil inventories (that’s crude plus all products, including the often volatile “other oil” category) rose by 1.1 million barrels last week.
    API
    Crude +1.78mm (-3.1mm exp) Cushing +2.562mm (-700k exp) Gasoline -4.827mm (-1mm exp) Distillates -1.225mm DOE
    Crude -1.53mm (-3.1mm exp) Cushing -39k (-700k exp) Gasoline -2.52mm (-1mm exp) Distillates -150k

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 2, 2017.


  • Dow To Rise Above 22,000 On Apple Earnings; Europe Pressured By Surging Euro

    Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.8% after Apple surged to record highs following a strong beat and optimistic projections ahead of the launch of the company’s new batch of iPhones. Eminis are little changed, up 0.1% to 2,475, trailing Asian markets, while European stocks and crude oil fall.
    Apple surged 6% after-hours to a new record highm taking its market capitalization above $830 billion. That should help carry the Dow through the 22,000 mark when the market opens. Among Asia’s Apple suppliers, LG Innnotek jumped 10 percent and SK Hynix, the world’s second-biggest memory chip maker, rose 3.8 percent. Murata Manufacturing firmed 4.9 percent and Taiyo Yuden 4.4 percent, helping the Nikkei up 0.47 percent.
    “It is all about Apple,” said Naeem Aslam chief market analyst at Think Markets. “The firm comfortably topped its forecast and produced stellar numbers for its revenue and profit.
    Oil came under pressure again as higher than expected US inventories and reports of rising OPEC output helped drive prices below back below $48/bbl (WTI crude). In FX markets, the USD dollar gave up some gains late in the session with DXY edging down by 0.1% and the euro rising to $1.1827. Treasury yields are 0.5-2bps higher across the curve with the 10y at 2.273%.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 2, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles After Surprise Crude Inventory Build

    Following the ugliest day in a month for WTI (on OPEC production increase survey), bulls hopes rest on tonight’s API data confirming the recent trend of inventory draws but that was not to be. Against expectations of a 3.1mm draw, API reported crude inventories built by 1.78mm barrels last week. The kneejerk reaction was clear – down hard.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


  • These Were The Best Performing Assets In July And YTD

    July was a great month for virtually all asset classes (at least those tracked by Deutsche Bank) with the notable exception of what, which tumbled after surging previously.
    As DB’s Jim Reid writes, there was strong performance for most assets in the bank’s sample as various market volatility measures trended lower over the past month to touch new all-time lows. 33 out of 39 assets posted positive total returns in local currency terms while all assets except for one (wheat) saw positive returns in USD terms after a tough month for the Greenback (-2.9%). In summary commodities and equities make up the top of both the local currency and USD performance tables while European assets (equities and government bonds) crowd at the bottom of the LC performance table. However the strong performance of the Euro (and USD weakness more generally) lifted most European assets into more positive territory in USD terms. Thus in USD terms the worst performers were mostly US credit and treasuries, rounded out by two relatively underperforming agricultural commodities in Corn (+0.1%) and Wheat (-7%).
    In terms of the key movers on the month, oil was one of the strongest performers as it led all assets in local currency terms (WTI +9%; Brent: +8%). It should be noted that nearly all of the gains came at the tail end of the month following news of Saudi Arabia’s pledge to reduce crude exports in August. Elsewhere the Bovespa (+11%) and FTSE MIB (+8%) matched gains in oil to top the USD table following a rally in the underlying equities (Bovespa LC: +5%; FTSE MIB LC: +5%) and strong performance in their respective currencies (BRL +6%; EUR +3%). Broader EM equities also saw strong performance in general (MSCI EM: +6%). An important dynamic to note is the fact that despite the poor performance of broader European assets in LC terms (and middling performance in USD terms), European banks actually saw strong returns on the month with gains of +3% in LC terms and over +6% in USD terms as Euro area economic momentum continues to hold strong and Eurozone government bond yields have risen following Draghi’s speech at Sintra.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


  • Oil Just Plunged To A $48 Handle After Survey Suggests OPEC Output Jumped In July

    Extending losses from Goldman’s overnight report noting the minimal impact of Venezuelan sanctions, WTI crude just crashed below $49 on heavy volume after Bloomberg reports that a survey suggests that OPEC’s July oil output rose by 210K to 32.87mmb/d, led by growth in Libya who upped production by 180Kb/d to the highest since June 2013.
    The recovery of crude production from Libya is undermining OPEC’s efforts to curb its output as the African nation pumps unabated.
    Total crude production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in July rose 210,000 barrels a day from June to reach 32.87 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


  • WTI Jumps Above $50 On Report US Prepping Sanctions Against Venezuela Oil Industry

    After both Brent and WTI rose above their respective 50DMAs on Friday, capping 2017’s best weekly rally for oil, the rising tide is accelerating as the latest CFTC COT data confirmed, when net specs boosted bullish Nymex WTI crude oil bets by 27K net-long positions to 423K, the highest in two months, as producers continued to cover short hedges, sending their net position to the most bullish since the summer of 2015.

    Meanwhile, oil started the Sunday session jumping out of the gate, with WTI rising above $50 for the first time since May in early Asian trading, following the usual non-material weekend chatter and “noise” out of OPEC (which to exactly nobody’s surprise “can’t stop pumping“), however what has attracted traders’ attention, is a WSJ report that following last week’s latest round of sanctions, and after today’s vote to overhaul Venezuela’s constitution further entrenching Maduro’s unpopular regime, US government officials are considering announcing sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry as early as Monday, although as the WSJ notes, a full-blown “embargo against Venezuelan crude oil imports into the U. S. is off the table for now.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 30, 2017.


  • Rig Count Rises By Just 2 As Goldman Expects Oil Market To Rebalance By Early 2018

    With WTI heading for its best week since 2016, demand and inventory data is trumping production for now and today’s Baker Hughes rig count data did nothing to change that as, following last week’s 1 rig drop, producers only added 2 oil rigs in the last week to 766.
    *U. S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 6 TO 192 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US *U. S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 2 TO 766 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US Judging by the lagged correlation to WTI, rig counts are stalling as expected…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 28, 2017.


  • WTI Surges Towards $50 – Breaks Above Key Technical Level

    Ahead of today’s rig count data, WTI (and Brent) Crude is extending its short-squeeze gains after the bullish inventory data trend was confirmed (shrugging off the surge in production). Signals from an increaisng number of firms that they are cutting capex (and this drilling) has helped send WTI and Brent back above their 200-day moving-averages.
    Halliburton, promising to be disciplined in adding more fracking gear to the oilfields, says U. S. explorers are “tapping the brakes” on drilling as the price of oil struggles to breach $50 a barrel.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 28, 2017.


  • S&P Futures Bounce As VIX Hammered, Europe “Euphoric”

    After sliding to 3 month lows on “car cartel” concerns yesterday, European stocks have rebounded after three days of declines, while oil extended gains after Saudi export cuts, with Brent rising above $49 and WTI just shy of $47. Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rose 0.2% to 2,473, putting yesterday’s GOOGL drop on plunging Costs-Per-Click in the rearview mirror.
    Helping today’s episode of global, pervasive complacency is the VIX which was hammered early by 3% in early Tuesday trading, down to 9.17. As previewed on Monday, the dollar rebounded after dropping to its lowest since August as investors await Wednesday’s U. S. interest rate decision; the greenback strength sent Gold lower for the first time in four days.
    US TSYs sell-off in relatively heavy volume after a large futures block trade in London hours and Bunds decline as strong German IFO data weighs. The dollar rallied from overnight low against G-10 and UST move helps USD/JPY trade through yesterday’s high.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.


  • Barclays Exit Of Energy Business Triggers Surge In Oil Options Trades

    Several hours before the US stock market opened on Monday, the commodity world was shaken by an unexpected surge in crude options trades, with traders noting that “someone is either moving positions, blown up or getting out of commodities. MASSIVE amount of blocks going through in crude options.”
    Someone is either moving positions, blown up or getting out of commodities. MASSIVE amount of blocks going through in #crude #options.#OOTT
    — Mark Scullion (@mscullion) July 24, 2017

    A Bloomberg alert shortly after confirmed the huge size of trades crossing the tape, when nearly $100 million in oil options traded simultaneously:
    WTI crude oil options traded the equivalent of 48m bbl of contracts via block, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Total value of all options combined is ~$99m Options include contracts from September 2017 through December 2020 5 largest blocks were: 4.4k Dec. $90 calls, 2.8k Dec. $60 calls, 2.5k Dec. $125 calls, 1.7k Dec. $95 calls, 1.4k Dec. $46 calls

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 24, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles Towards $45 Handle After Tanker-Tracker Signals OPEC Supply At 2017 Highs

    Despite the ‘bullish’ inventory data (and demand), WTI Crude just sank towards a $45 handle – red on the week – as tanker-tracking firm Petro-Logistics signals OPEC crude supply rising again this month will be the highest this year (along with US shale output at record highs).
    As Bloomberg notes, supply from OPEC members is set to exceed 33 million barrels a day this month, more than 600,000 barrels a day higher than the first-half average, according to Petro-Logistics. The data could reinforce skepticism about the effectiveness of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ production cuts as officials from the group gather for meetings in St. Petersburg, Russia.
    This pushed prices below the pre-DOE data lows…and red for the week.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 21, 2017.


  • Euro Surges To 2-Year High In “Bipolar” Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

    The euro’s surge to an almost two-year high put a cap on the global market rally in Friday’s quiet session, with most major exchanges consolidating after a second strong week of gains. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index declined for first time in ten days while the European Stoxx 600 index was fractionally in the green as were US equity futures ahead of earnings reports from General Electric, Honeywell, Schlumberger and others. Oil gained with Brent flirting with $50, zinc rallied along with most base metals. European stocks are little changed, while Asian stocks decline with Tokyo shares falling for first time in three days.
    Also overnight, AUD traders were caught wrongfooted for the second time in one week after the Aussie fell sharply following an unexpectedly dovish speech from RBA Deputy Governor Debelle, who said there’s no significance in the board’s neutral rate discussion, which earlier this week sent the Aussie surging. “No significance should be read into the fact the neutral rate was discussed at this particular meeting,” Debelle said in text of speech. “Most meetings, the board allocates some time to discussing a policy-relevant issue in more detail, and on this occasion it was the neutral rate.” In addition to the drop in AUDUSD, Australian sovereign yields all dropped 5-7 basis points in bull steepening move; three-year yield drops as much as nine basis points to 2.00% – the steepest decline since March on a closing basis. Kiwi rallied to highest since September 2016 on Finance Minister Joyce comments; yen little changed. S&P futures near unchanged. WTI crude holds near $47; Dalian iron ore falls 0.7%.
    But most of the attention was on the EUR in the aftermath of Thursday’s paradoxical Draghi press conference, which led to a “bipolar” market reaction, seen as dovish by rates while hawkish by FX.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 21, 2017.


  • Gartman Covers Oil Short

    Two days ago, when oil was plumbing its latest cycle lows, Goldman came out with a “contrarian” note in which it admitted that its bullish commodity outlook had been wrong, and cautioned that absent “shock and awe” from OPEC, oil could drop below $40, to which our logical counter was that this likely capped the latest crude selloff, but there was one outstanding item: the world-renowned momentum chaser, Dennis Gartman: “As to whether this means that the “suddenly” skeptical Goldman, which as we sarcastically pointed out was selling oil throughout its entire “bullish phase”, is now finally buying WTI, consider that Gartman remains bearish and do the math.”
    Fast forward 48 hours when after the latest rebound in oil, Gartman is no longer bearish…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 13, 2017.


  • Another Day, Another V-Shaped Panic-Buying Spree in Crude Oil

    Suuposedly catalyzed this time by EIA forecast production cuts, WTI crude has spiked off an early tumble for the 3rd day in a row, running stops above $45. It appears the algos missed the fact that EIA also cut its price forecasts for the next two years, cut demand growth estimates, and confirmed OPEC production is higher than expected…
    The trigger – apparently:
    *EIA LEAVES 2017 U. S. CRUDE OUTPUT ESTIMATE UNCH AT 9.33M B/D *EIA CUTS 2018 U. S. CRUDE OUTPUT ESTIMATE TO 9.9M B/D FROM 10.01

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 11, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles Back To $43 Handle After Saudis Breach OPEC Agreement

    Having v-shaped recovered yesterday after disappointing Russian comments (on no news whatsoever), crude prices are tumbling once again this mornig, WTI back to $43 handle, after Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 10.07 million barrels a day in June, a person with knowledge of the data said, exceeding its production limit for the first time since brokering a deal to curb global crude supply to counter a glut.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 11, 2017.


  • Gartman: “The Time Has Come To Be Short Of Oil Once Again”

    When we pointed out yesterday that “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman remained bearish of oil, we quoted him as saying that “it has been our intention all along to await the opportunity to sell crude oil short on protracted rally and we are getting that rally as we write. We can be patient a while longer.” His patience lasted less than 24 hours, because one day later – as oil is on the cusp of extending its bullish run for a near record 9th consecutive day – Gartman this morning that “the time then has come to be short of crude oil once again.”
    The section of note:
    CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE and have now risen for 8 or 9 days in a row, depending upon when one has marked the close. Going by the CME’s official closes, yesterday was the 8th day in row higher and the ‘bounce’ from the lows made two weeks ago amidst what was then panic liquidation has now taken the market to an almost equally over-bought, hyper-extended level to the upside. We have maintained that the ‘bounce’ would take crude back to The Box marking the 50-62% retracement in nearby WTI crude to somewhere between $47.00-$48.15 and for all intents that was satisfied yesterday when the high of $47.07. Note then the chart of nearby August WTI and note The Box.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 4, 2017.