The biggest question remains that when silver does decisively penetrate its key moving averages, will the near-certain rush by technical funds to buy cause the price to move in the manner I have suggested recently, namely, explosively? That, of course, depends on how aggressive the commercials and, particularly, JP Morgan respond to the technical fund buying. I don’t mean to repeat myself, but somethings must be repeated.
This is a process as mechanical as any motor engine. If JP Morgan and the other big commercials add aggressively to short positions on the next moving average upside penetration, they would appear to be quite capable of eventually snuffing out any silver rally caused by technical fund buying; and the exact same thing that has occurred on countless occasions over the years – snuffed out silver rallies – will occur again. And I completely empathize with those (in the majority) who hold that to expect otherwise would be on the insane side of the ledger, you know, expecting different results from the same circumstances.
I would stipulate further that if JPM and the other big commercials short aggressively, then silver prices would likely fall eventually and we go back to the very beginning of the wash, spin, repeat cycle. But there’s not much to be gained for assuming JP Morgan will load up on the short side again, until it does load up. That’s because as long as JP Morgan is not heavily short COMEX silver futures, there is little reason to expect significantly lower silver prices. A large concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures is always the prime (sole) reason to expect lower silver prices. The lack thereof should not be feared.
If it does turn out that the market crooks at JP Morgan again short silver futures aggressively, that will only come on higher prices and with generally fair warning. Specifically, if JP Morgan adds back much of the 16,000 short contracts it bought back over the past five reporting weeks (including last week’s increase), then my ‘big one’ premise goes out the window. Look, I’m just the analyst/piano player, not a principle participant in the ongoing COMEX silver scam. If JP Morgan does end up adding aggressively to its price-controlling silver short position, that’s beyond my control in any event.