This post was published at Rachel Blevins
WTI/RBOB had roundtripped off initial API gains into the DOE data this morning which confirmed the sixth weekly crude draw, gasoline build in a row. Production dropped for the first time in 2 months, but WTI limped lower after the data.
Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Vince Piazza notes that attention turns to 2018 after a relatively quiet holiday season. Concerns for production growth with stout hedging likely places a ceiling on WTI in the $60 range. Domestic storage remains elevated heading into a benign 1Q, even with the tailwind of crude exports.
It’s difficult to appreciate how it gets much better for global crude with the OPEC/Russia accord in the rear view and North Sea and Canadian pipeline issues largely transitory curtailments. Regime intrigue in Saudi Arabia and broader geopolitical concerns in the region aid uncertainty and boost risk premiums, but the WTI benchmark is likely to be range bound next year on higher domestic upstream production.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/28/2017 –.
Back when oil was at $100 and above, the Saudi economy was firing on all cylinders, and nobody even dreamed that the crown jewel of Saudi Arabia – Aramaco – would be on the IPO block in just a few years. However, with oil stuck firmly in the $50 range, things for the Saudi economy are going from bad to worse, and today Riyadh – when it wasn’t busy preventing Yemeni ballistic missiles from hitting the royal palace – said its economy contracted for the first time in eight years as a result of austerity measures and the stagnant price of oil, as the Kingdom announced record spending to stimulate growth.
OPEC’s biggest oil producer said 2017 GDP shrank 0.5% due to a drop in crude production, as part of the 2016 Vienna production cut agreement, but mostly due to lower oil prices. The last time the Saudi economy contracted was in 2009, when GDP fell 2.1% after the global financial crisis sent oil prices crashing. Riyadh also posted a higher-than-expected budget deficit in 2017 and forecast another shortfall next year for the fifth year in a row due to the drop in oil revenues: the finance ministry said it estimates a budget deficit of $52 billion for 2018.
More surprising was the Saudis announcement of a radically expansionary budget for 2018, projecting the highest spending ever despite low oil prices in a bid to stimulate the sluggish economic, saying it expects the GDP to grow by 2.7%. While we wish Riyadh good luck with that, we now know why confiscating the wealth of ultra wealthy Saudi royals was a key component of the country’s economic plan…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 19, 2017.
Six months ago, the Gulf Cooperation Council, helmed as always by its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, severed diplomatic ties with Qatar. This move was apparently meant to punish the country for its supposed support of terrorism. Riyadh announced the closure of its shared land border with Qatar. The remaining GCC members denied Qatar use of their airspace and ports. The measures were meant to bring the Qatari economy to its knees by isolating the government in Doha.
Why the Measures Failed
At first, these measures seemed as though they might succeed. They quickly sent a shock through the economy, particularly in banking and trade.
Since the Saudi announcement, an estimated $30 billion has been removed from Qatari banks, interest rates have risen, and deposits have declined. Foreign customers with deposits at Qatari banks have withdrawn and relocated their money. Deposits totaled 184.6 billion riyals ($50.7 billion) at the start of June; they have since declined to 137.7 billion riyals.
Trade initially suffered too.
This post was published at Mauldin Economics on DECEMBER 11, 2017.
At Peak Prosperity, we strive to help people advance in three key areas: Knowing, Doing and Being.
Doing and Being are the resilience-building steps we recommend. Helping folks develop their own personal action plans in these areas is the main focus of the seminars we run.
But Knowing? That’s the essential first part to master. Without sufficient understanding and insight to guide you, any action you take is merely groping in the dark.
That’s why Chris and I spend the majority of our time info-scouting: following the data and analyzing where macro trends are likely to head next given the latest developments.
We dedicate so much time and energy to this because it’s not the domino that’s falling today that matters. What’s much more important is: Which dominoes will fall tomorrow as a result?
And make no mistake, the pace of falling dominoes is accelerating. From the geo-politically destabilizing regime change in Saudi Arabia, to the ending of the central bank liquidity bubble, to the largest species extinction wave in millennia, to the bursting retirement dreams of the Baby Boomer generation, to the fast-worsening net energy predicament — change is afoot. The relative calm of the false ‘recovery’ that the world’s central planners engineered in response to the Great Financial Crisis has reached its terminus.
Now, more than ever in recent years, understanding where events are headed next is critical to preserving your wealth and well-being.
This post was published at PeakProsperity on Monday, November 27, 2017,.
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed that OPEC and non-OPEC allies should announce an extension of the cuts at the highly-anticipated meeting in Vienna on November 30, Bloomberg reported on Friday, quoting people involved in the talks.
Recent OPEC/non-OPEC oil pact chatter had it that Saudi Arabia was pushing for an announcement of the cuts extension next week in Vienna, while Russia was more hesitant about telling the market on November 30 how the participants in the deal would act. Russia appeared to be stalling and playing for an announcement to be issued closer to the current expiration deadline of the deal, March 2018.
According to Bloomberg’s sources, now Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed on the need to announce some sort of a deal next week, but Russia has insisted on additional phrasing in the extension deal that would link the size of the cuts to the state of the oil market.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 26, 2017.
In early March 1938 in a dusty corner of the Arabian desert, Max Steineke finally had the breakthrough he was hoping for.
Steineke was the chief geologist for the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC), a venture owned by what we know today as Chevron.
And he hadn’t had a lot of success despite years of effort.
Steinke was convinced that massive oil reserves were beneath the sands. He just couldn’t find any.
His prized oil well, what was called Dammam #7, had been riddled with mishaps, accidents, and delays, and it was costing the company a LOT of money.
Steinke was about to be shut down when, finally, on March 4, the well started gushing. And Saudi Arabia was never the same.
This post was published at Sovereign Man on November 20, 2017.
So much can change in ten days.
Having entered last week short, “world-renowned commodity guru”, Dennis Gartman, got spooked last Tuesday when faced with the relentless melt-up in global stocks, and admitted that he had “been wrong… badly… in taking even a modestly bearish view of the global equity market and effecting that bearish view via a position in out-of-the-money puts on the US equity market bought a week and one half ago.” He then said he would immediately cover his short “and covered it shall be” because as he then explained, he was afraid
“…we are about to enter that violent… and ending… rush to the upside that has ended so many great bull markets of the past. At this point, the buying becomes manic and prices head skyward. Speculation is the order of the day, not investment and when such periods have erupted in the past prices have gone parabolic until such time as the last bears have been brought to heel and the public has thrown investment caution to the wind. We’re there now; this may become wild.”
Fast forward to yesterday when, with nothing but price momentum changing in the interim, Gartman’s flipped 180 degrees, and boldly predicted that “the bear market is upon us we fear”:
Today’s ‘universal’ weakness…only a week from the global market’s all-time high… is a harbinger of further material weakness we fear and sets the stage for the start of what we fear might well be a bear market of some serious vintage. There is concern… very real concern… on our part that one market after another has broken its upward sloping trend line that has heretofore been very well defined. A trend line drawn across the recent lows of the Dow has been broken; a trend line drawn across the recent lows of the S&P has also; trend lines of the Russel… of the Nikkei… of the DAX… of the EUR STOXX 50… of the Tadawul in Saudi Arabia… have all been broken, and we can go of if need be but our point here is made. Something material has happened to the global equity market and only the most fervent of stock market bulls shall not recognize that fact.
The equity market, by its very definition, anticipates the change in the economy, rising before the economy rises and falling before the economy falls. We are at the latter tipping point. It has been months in the coming, but it is here and adjustments in one’s investment policies must be made accordingly. The bear is upon is, we fear.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 16, 2017.
For years now, I have been warning about the relationship of interdependency between the U. S. and Saudi Arabia and how this relationship, if ended, would mean disaster for the petrodollar system and by extension the dollar’s world reserve status. In my recent articles ‘Lies And Distractions Surrounding The Diminishing Petrodollar’ and ‘The Economic End Game Continues,’I point out that the death of the dollar as the premier petrocurrency is actually a primary goal for establishment globalists. Why? Because in an effort to achieve what they sometimes call the “global economic reset,” or the “new world order,” a more publicly accepted centralized global economy and monetary framework is paramount. And, this means the eventual implementation of a single world currency and a single global economic and political authority above and beyond the dollar system.
But, it is not enough to simply initiate such socially and fiscally painful changes in a vacuum. The banking powers are not interested in taking any blame for the suffering that would be dealt to the masses during the inevitable upheaval (or blame for the suffering that has already been caused). Therefore, a believable narrative must be crafted. A narrative in which political intrigue and geopolitical crisis make the “new world order” a NECESSITY; one that the general public would accept or even demand as a solution to existing instability and disaster.
That is to say, the globalists must fashion a propaganda story to be used in the future, in which “selfish” nation-states abused their sovereignty and created conditions for calamity, and the only solution was to end that sovereignty and place all power into the hands of a select few “wise and benevolent men” for the greater good of the world.
This post was published at Alt-Market on Wednesday, 15 November 2017.
In this scenario, time is running out for Saudi Arabia’s free-spending royalty and state– and for all the other free-spending oil exporters.
While there are numerous dynamics at work in the turmoil roiling Saudi Arabia and by extension, the Mideast, one way to cut to the chase is to follow the oil, follow the money. Correspondent B. D. recently posited a factor that has been largely overlooked in the geopolitical / fate-of-the-petrodollar discussions: Perhaps the core dynamic is a technical one of diminished oil production. Here is Bart’s commentary: “I think the Saudis may be quickly running out of profitable oil to produce/export. I think they tried to over-produce for a while to damage the competition… and they now have production issues resulting from that. (As has happened in the past) I think they may have recently slipped over the event horizon for being the world’s swing producer of ‘cheap-ish and abundant’ oil. That has huge ramifications for the global markets ability to quickly respond to supply/demand fluctuations.
This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2017.
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, 0.41 percent. CenterraGold is set to buy Aurico Metals for $1.80 per cash share for a 38-percent purchase price premium on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Centerra currently holds more than $350 million in cash and has now secured a $125 million acquisition facility, according to Bloomberg. Gold prices rose after Saudi Arabia said a recent attempted missile strike at Riyadh’s airport could be an act of war by Iran. Additionally, Turkish investors are continuing to buy gold with demand expected to reach the highest since 2013. According to Google Trends, global searches for ‘buy bitcoin’ have overtaken ‘buy gold’ demonstrating a surge in popularity of the cryptocurrency. However, the BullionVault Gold Investor Index edged slightly higher to 54.6, demonstrating the number of buyers is higher than sellers. Weaknesses
The worst performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down 0.82 percent. Due to platinum’s primary use in internal combustion engines, the metal could be among the biggest losers from electrical vehicle growth, reports Mining Review. The World Gold Council said it’s a tough quarter for gold as prices weakened in September and October. Global gold demand fell 9 percent in the third quarter as investor buying slowed and regulations in India tightened, reports Eddie van der Walt.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 13 November 2017.
GOLD: $1287.00 UP $3.25
Silver: $17.00 DOWN 11 cents
Closing access prices:
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1289.93 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1281.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.33(premiums getting LARGER AGAIN)
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1293.60
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.70
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.90 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER AGAIN)
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1284.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.95
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1284.80
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1284.60
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 975 FOR 97,500 OZ (3.032TONNES)
5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 869 for 4,345,000 oz
Bitcoin: BID $7119 OFFER /$7149 DOWN $328.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING; BID $7192 OFFER: 7217 // DOWN $265.00
Let us have a look at the data for today
In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1386 contracts from 208,500 DOWN TO 201,944 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER ROSE BY A RATHER LARGE 16 CENTS. THIS TIME WE HAD OVER 1000 EFP’S ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS IN SILVER FOR DECEMBER DUE TO THEIR ‘EMERGENCY SITUATION’ WHERE THEY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH METAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS. OUR LONGS AT THE COMEX RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT AT A DIFFERENT EXCHANGE AND THAT NO DOUBT IS LONDON. THIS IS THE EARLIEST THAT I HAVE SEEN THAT EFP’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AN UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH. GENERALLY IT IS GOLD THAT IS THE MEGA RECIPIENT OF EFP’S WITH SILVER MUCH SMALLER. SO NO DOUBT WE WILL SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF EFP’S ISSUED WITHIN A WEEK OF FIRST DAY NOTICE.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DROP IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE 16 CENT PRICE RISE. COMEX LONGS EXITED OUT OF THE COMEX WITH OVER 1000 EFP’S ISSUED FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.009 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A TINY 453 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($8.35) WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING . WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 536,390. NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. OUR BANKERS WERE MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN COVERING A TINY PORTION OF THEIR GOLD SHORTS.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE DECEMB CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($8.35). WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME BANK SHORT COVERING. WE CERTAINLY HAD NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERING THE GOLD COMEX AREA TO WHICH OUR BANKERS REGRETFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
we had: 2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
No changes in gold inventory at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 843.09 tonnes.
TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ
This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 9, 2017.
Recently I identified five agents of change that I believe investors should know about right now. I’d like to add one more to the list: Mohammad bin Salman. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, 32, was little known outside the region before this past weekend when he jailed members of the royal family, presumably in an attempt to consolidate power ahead of taking the throne. Resembling a plotline from an episode of ‘Game of Thrones,’ the mass detentions signal a seismic change in Saudi leadership – which, in turn, is putting upward pressure on global oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and single biggest oil exporter, so any development that might alert investors that the kingdom’s production levels or oil policy could be disrupted has historically had a profound effect on prices. When the country’s former king, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, passed away in January 2015, oil jumped more than 8.6 percent for the week.
And so was the case on Monday, after news broke of the shakeup. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark for crude, closed above $57 a barrel for the first time since June 2015, adding nearly 35 percent from its summer 2017 low. A weaker U. S. dollar, down about 3.2 percent from the same time last year, is also providing support, as is slower U. S. supply growth following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 November 2017.
The drums of war are beating at a deafening pace: with Saudi Arabia ordering its citizens to immediately leave Lebanon on Thursday, just a few hours later Kuwait joined in.
According to the Kuwait News Agency, citing a foreign ministry statement, Kuwait citizens currently in Lebanon are urged to leave the country immediately.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 9, 2017.
Gold and silver are not out of the woods. So far Trump has not said anything to destabilize the markets. Fears of a surprise resulted in the rise of gold and silver yesterday. Developments in Saudi Arabia are here to stay. It may or may not affect metals and crude oil. The internet is filled with speculation that there is collusion between Israel and Saudi to expand Israel among other political agendas. Something is fishy in Saudi Arabia. Something big will happen in the Middle East over the coming months. Only big political news from the Middle east will impact global financial markets.
The trading volumes in bitcoins is not even five percent of its current potential. Bitcoins and other crypto currencies have a lot higher to go. A few Mount Gox type vanishing will be needed to prevent bitcoin prices from zooming. Nations will be forced to adopt and regulate bitcoins. Greater adoption of crypto currencies will imply greater investment demand for gold and silver.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 November 2017.
This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Silver prices are finally on the rise again, after their price weakness appears to have finally ended over the last trading week. Since my Oct. 31 update, when silver reached a bottom of $16.69, the metal has rebounded 2.6%, to $17.12 today (Tuesday, Nov. 7).
The biggest catalyst this week is uncertainty surrounding Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s arrest of 11 high-profile princes and four ministers. Prince Mohammed bin Salman – the son of King Salman – is widely seen as the power behind his father’s throne. While the government cited efforts to purge corruption as the reason for the arrests, they appear to be Prince Mohammed’s move to consolidate his power.
The news not only pushed oil prices up nearly 3% yesterday (Monday, Nov. 6), but it also gave the silver price a 2.4% boost. That gain outperformed gold’s 1% gain and demonstrated the relative ‘undervaluation’ of silver compared to gold right now.
And as much as gold stocks remain an incredibly undervalued sector, silver stocks are arguably even cheaper relative to silver. To me, that indicates an incredible buying opportunity is forming for silver right now.
This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Peter Krauth ‘ November 7, 2017.
From the very beginning, there was something off about Sunday’s unprecedented countercoup purge unleashed by Mohammad bin Salman on alleged political enemies, including some of Saudi Arabia’s richest and most powerful royals and government officials: it was just too brazen to be a simple “power consolidation” move; in fact most commentators were shocked by the sheer audacity, with one question outstanding: why take such a huge gamble? After all, there was little chatter of an imminent coup threat against either the senile Saudi King or the crown prince, MbS, and a crackdown of such proportions would only boost animosity against the current ruling royals further.
Things gradually started to make sense when it emerged that some $33 billion in oligarch net worth was “at risk” among just the 4 wealthiest arrested Saudis, which included the media-friendly prince Alwaleed.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 8, 2017.
Gold prices held most of yesterday’s 1.0% jump against the Dollar and touched new 3-week highs for Euro investors on Tuesday, trading higher as crude oil rose and Saudi Arabia accused Iran of “direct military aggression” tantamount to a declaration of war.
Wall Street’s S&P500 index of US stocks ended Monday with its 11th new record closing high in a month.
Crypto-currency Bitcoin today rallied to regain half of Monday’s 6% drop, trading back above $7000 after hitting 5 new daily all-time highs in succession last week.
Listen to Tom McClellan on Stocks and Real Estate; Keith Barron on Peak Gold
Crude oil spiked Tuesday to new 2.5-year highs, while Arabian stock markets fell hard – down over 3% – as news broke of further detentions and sanctions against senior Saudi figures by new crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
“We expected to some interest in gold following the close above $1280,” says one Asian trading desk in a gold price note, “[but] Chinese selling appears to be capping the market.”
“Stocks are at record highs, so you don’t need gold,” says George Gero at the wealth management division of Canada’s RBC.
This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/07/2017.
Was Saturday a “Red Wedding” moment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? As the plot thickens in Riyadh, here’s a roundup of the chatter on the streets…
It started off with the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a clearly orchestrated move produced and executed by his paymasters in Riyadh.
Hariri announced on a Saudi-owned channel from the Saudi capital that he was resigning his post in protest at foreign intervention in Lebanon‘s domestic affairs. The irony was lost on him.
The ostensible reason he gave, as he invoked his late father’s name, was that he too is threatened with assassination.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 6, 2017.