Gold Seasonality Chart Points To Strong Gains September Through February

The month of September has historically been the strongest for precious metals. Since the start of the current bull market, gold has averaged a gain of 2.6% during the month of September. This is typically followed by a smaller gain of 0.8% in October and then a few more strong months in November, January and February. Taken together, we are exiting the weakest seasonal period for gold (Spring-Summer) and entering into the strongest seasonal period (Fall-Winter).
The following chart has been updated to include data through September of 2014:

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 2, 2014.

Gold Tumbles Most In 6 Weeks As USD Surges

It appears JPY weakness (or generalized USD strength) is mirroring the demise of precious metals (and oil) this morning. Gold’s 1.7% drop is the biggest in 6 weeks and drops the yellow metal to near 3-month lows. Treasury yields are up 5-8bps at the long-end. Troublingly, for the carry bulls, equity futures are not playing along with the JPY weakness.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

Gold: The Thin End Of The Wedge

Gold had a horrendous year in 2013 disappointing many of its supporters; however, 2014 started brightly bringing with it much hope for an attempt at achieving new record highs. Gold prices moved quickly from the $1200/oz level to flirt with $1400/oz by mid-March. The summer brought some confusion with gold rallying and falling without much in the way of conviction in either direction. As optimists we can argue that the summer doldrums arrived to take the steam out of the market and that better times lie ahead. The pessimists suggest that gold is struggling to gain some traction and will head lower in the near future, so we will take a brief look at some of the factors that affect gold’s movements.
Factors for consideration regarding the purchase gold:
Back in June 2006 we listed some the reasons for buying gold as follows:
No new large discoveries of gold deposits dampening supply Lack of previous investment for gold exploration It takes up to 10 years to bring a new mine to production Falling gold production worldwide adding to its scarcity Gold EFTs take gold off the market thus reducing supply In the last Bull Run 70s to 80s gold prices increased 20 fold Metrics: DJIA vs. Gold, about 19ozs buys the Dow Jones, it has been 1:1 in the past and could be again in the future. Assuming the Dow Jones remains above 10,000 then the gold price could hit $10,000 Gold at its previous high of $850 adjusted for inflation puts the gold price at $2000 plus Geopolitical uncertainty, a nuclear Iran creates world tension which pushes up the price of gold A Dictatorial South America imposing restrictions such as increased taxation and nationalization will deter investment and reduce gold production India is growing and the sleeping dragon of China has awoken, their hunger for gold will drive gold prices higher Internet: information travels around the world in a nano-second, reactions to news, true or false, will add to the volatility of the gold price Web trading: increasing every day, resulting in the trends being more exaggerated than ever before The mania that I traded in during the last Bull market will be nothing compared to the coming Gold price explosion and the maniacal actions of traders and everyday people in the precious metals sector.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 2, 2014.

Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are at a critical juncture – either they break down to new lows soon or a major new uptrend is about to start. Which is it? – while we cannot be 100% sure either way, we can certainly attempt to figure which way they are likely to break.
Many have been tempted to conclude, because of the dismal response to date by the Precious Metals to the growing geopolitical tensions in various regions of the world, that this is an indication of intrinsic weakness, and that they are therefore destined to break down soon, but there is another way of looking at it.
The vast majority of investors have no idea just how dangerous the worsening situation with Russia really is. The West is looking for trouble with Russia – and like most people who go looking for trouble, they are going to find it – this is a situation that could quickly lead to a World War. They have made it obvious that they are not interested in compromise – they want to overcome and subdue Russia, and the consequences are likely to be grave – especially for Europe which is on the front line. We have gone into this in detail on the site and will not look at it further here, but it deserves to be mentioned at the outset, because this could drive a meteoric rise in Precious Metal prices – and it could start with a big move that seems to come out of nowhere.
With this in mind let’s now move on to look at the latest gold charts.
We will start by looking at gold’s long-term chart, as we need an overall perspective from the start. On gold’s 15-year chart we can see that despite the rough time it has had over the past 3 years, it still hasn’t broken down from its long-term uptrend – and if this uptrend is valid, then it is clear that a huge upleg could be in prospect from here. If it were to run to the top of its major uptrend channel again, it would result in a massive increase in the price to the $4000 – $5000 area. Of course, the pattern that has formed over the past year could be a continuation pattern to be followed by a breakdown and another steep drop, but this doesn’t look like it is on the cards as it would require a significant easing of geopolitical tensions, considered highly unlikely, and a deflationary implosion, which the money printers will ‘move heaven and earth’ to avoid. Volume indicators on gold’s long-term chart look positive relative to price, with Accum-Distrib line in particular looking strong. This chart makes plain that we are at a critical juncture here.

This post was published at Clive Maund on September 1st, 2014.

The Precious Metals Complex : Contradiction And Potential

In this Weekend Report I’d like to look at some of the Precious metals stock indexes as there was a fairly strong reversal off of the previous lows made over the last two months. It was one of those inflection points where the PM stock indexes could have gone either way. It just so happened that they all had a decent bounce off the lows with the last two days being up. We’ll examine some of the PM stock indexes in a minute but I would first like to show you the BPGDM as it’s still on a buy signal that was generated three weeks ago.
The reading of 46.67 is the highest point the BPGDM has reached in about year so there is some underlying strength. The BPGDM is above the 5 dma and the 5 dma is above the 8 dma so the buy signal is in place. Also the price action is still finding support at the neckline of the potential one plus year inverse H&S bottom.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 2, 2014.

The Fall Is Golden For Bullion Bulls

September is the hottest month of the year for gold prices, rising on average 3% over the past 20 years. As the yellow metal tests hovers off 2-month-lows, Bloomberg notes that “Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks,” ahead of the festival period, which runs from late August to October (andis followed by the wedding season) when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. As GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne notes, “a lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength… They tend to buy and that creates momentum.”
Some color on the week’s Precious Metals Trading from Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney,
The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London’s bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London’s pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York.
It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/31/2014.

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be!

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be! With Remarks On Texas Governor Rick Perry & Texas Gold! Accompanied by a Warning to Jewelers!
Presented August 2014 by Charles Savoie
Effective mid-month August 2014, the old silver ‘fix’ has been replaced by a new silver ‘fix,’ run jointly by the CME Group, owner of the COMEX, and Thomson Reuters. But has anything of real substance changed? It certainly has not. The new ‘fix’ was awarded by the LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, composed of neer-do-well entities including Barclays Bank, HSBC Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, and additionally Bank of Nova Scotia, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui & Company, and Paris based Societe Generale. For 116 months I’ve routinely made details available about a unique organization known to few as ‘The Pilgrims Society.’ Persons who haven’t become aware of this group can find details on Google search. If you especially want the monetary details relating to this group and precious metals, add my name to theirs in the search box or read ‘The Silver Stealers’ documentary. Therefore, I won’t go into another basic explanation of The Pilgrims Society here. The ringleaders of the megabanks above have all had heavy representation in The Pilgrims Society. The rest have been and remain represented in interlocking groups such as the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg conferences – groups founded by Pilgrims Society members. I am not among the commentators you can read the fastest, because of the nature of these presentations, in depth examinations must be made to substantiate my claims. However, just to make reference to this alleged ‘new’ silver fix, and how bogus it is, I offer this brief report. An oft repeated phrase most have heard, and which drives home how dismal this old world often is, has it that ‘the more things change, the more they remain the same.’ We will not get into a long documentary such as ‘Who Controls The Gold Stealing New York Fed Bank,’ released last February, but will let a few points suffice. This is a mere matter of a group of gangsters who tossed the ball to others in their racketeering organization. Mitsui Global Precious Metals, a Silver Users Association member, is a subsidiary of Mitsui & Company – a Trilateral Commission interest. The Mitsuis and the Rockefellers have been associates since before 1907 when the Japan Society was founded by Rockefeller-Vanderbilt liaison Lindsay Russell as another offshoot of The Pilgrims Society. The Japan Society in fact was forerunner to the Trilaterals, founded 66 years later, but represented an expansion into Britain and Europe, in response to Bilderberg not including Japanese industrialists and bankers. Meaning that Bilderberg is over-rated compared to the Trilaterals! However, they both sprang from this older organization which remains in the shadows.

This post was published at Silver-Investor on August 29, 2014.

Prepare For Longterm Instability and Hardship

Unlike the normal business cycle that allows for a recession every few years to clear out the mal-investments and keep the system functioning properly, the current cycle has been artificially induced with money that has unseated the foundation of good financial practices and caused a series of bubbles that must pop at some point. When this happens the business cycle will be heavily damaged and will take many years to reestablish some type of normalcy.
If you think of a cycle as a pendulum swinging back and forth, you must realize that the further it swings to one side, the further it will swing to the other to balance itself. That is what we must realize with the current bubble boom in the financial sectors. The further out of balance they get, the further they will need to swing back to preserve equilibrium. When these bubbles finally pop, the offsetting swing will be monumental. A normal recession of a few years will be exaggerated to a multi-year disaster.
These are the type of conditions that usher in depressions of long duration. This bubble induced mania is far beyond anything experienced in human history and will result in an equally disastrous financial contraction destroying paper assets and making hard assets desirable and difficult to acquire in the aftermath.
In this type of situation, hard assets and a wide knowledge base are as good as it gets. The ownership of capital equipment that produces necessary consumer goods and the ability to finance yourself internally combined with sufficient knowledge to use these resources will provide a safe harbor to get through the difficulties that arise. Becoming your own bank requires the ability to store financial assets such as precious metals and diamonds that have universal value. This is one of the few ways to store wealth that can survive such market destruction.

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 30, 2014.

Precious Metals Continue To Show Weakness With One Exception

U. S. markets and leading stocks continue to show strong and positive action, mostly early in the week. It really has been a great August, and that is rare, but it just shows that you must always be paying attention to things and can’t rely wholly on historical or past norms.
Does this mean the usually strong fall period will be weak, or does it mean it will be extra strong? Only time will tell and I will be keenly watching for the answers.
As for the precious metals, gold and silver tried to move higher a couple times this past week only to reverse and resume the dominant trend, which remains lower.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on August 30, 2014.

Precious Metals Markets: China vs US

In anticipation to the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange international board, that presumably will start shifting gold pricing power from West to East, in this post we’ll examine the historical trading volumes of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the COMEX. By charting the weekly volumes we get a clear view of the size of these exchanges. (In the London Bullion Market most likely the largest volumes are traded, but because this is an OTC market that doesn’t disclose much data we can’t use it in our West – East comparison.)
From now on I will publish the trading data of all three exchanges after every trading week to closely monitor if the gold market’s center of gravity is moving to Asia.
The largest precious metals futures exchange in the world is the COMEX located in the US. This exchange started trading silver futures in June 1963 and gold futures in December 1974. Futures are a derivative of an underlying asset, in this case precious metals, as they are traded on margin. Through futures traders can take on positions in precious metals but only deposit a fraction, the margin, of the total cash value in advance. This provides leverage; price movement is magnified relative to the margin on deposit. Futures can be used, for example, to hedge or speculate. Historically the COMEX has been the dominant futures exchange in the world and plays a significant role in the pricing of precious metals.

This post was published at InGoldWeTrust on August 30, 2014.

Comex Gold Warehouses Filling Up…With Paper

Willing or unwilling; we all now dwell in the fantasy-realm previously dubbed ‘the Wonderland Matrix’. For the small minority who still retain mental awareness; this all-encompassing illusion of propaganda is like a thick fog which blankets reality. However, for the legions of brainwashed drones in our societies, the Wonderland Matrix is reality.
Nowhere is this blanket of fog thicker than in the precious metals sector. Here perversity is a way of life, as the genesis of the Wonderland Matrix began with the fantasy-world constructed here by the propaganda of the Corporate media.
As must inevitably occur with such serial perversion (i.e. consistently reporting the precise opposite of reality), these perverse lies soon begin to contradict each other. We see a glaring example of this by simply viewing the Corporate media’s ‘perversion (2014 version)’ versus its ‘perversion (2013 version)’.
The insanity of last year began shortly after the Cyprus Steal, when a corrupt Western government rubber-stamped the first ‘bail in’. This, in turn, opened the floodgates to the unlimited confiscation (i.e. theft) of paper assets by our corrupt governments, as these puppet-leaders mumbled in unison about how this (act of theft) was now a ‘precedent’.

This post was published at BullionBullsCanada on 29 August 2014.

Should Retirement Plans For Individuals Hold Precious Metals And How?

Diversifying a portfolio is the first thing they teach you about investment, especially for retirement plans. With these funds, security is often prioritized over quick, short term speculation. For that reason, precious metals and other commodities have now become preferred choices for retirement plans for individuals. Traditionally, this is not allowed for qualified plans, but things have change and now investors are looking at innovative retirement plans for individualsto invest in commodities.
Why Precious metals work for retirement plans for individuals?
Retirement plans for individuals are often all about flexibility and security. Unlike a traditional 401k account with an employer, people look at retirement plans for individuals as it allows them to take better control of their retirement funds. Precious metals or commodities work because trading can be done quicker with less legality involved than other investments, say real estate for example.
A person can also choose to play safe with a buy-and-hold strategy, which can guard their nest egg against inflation. He or she can also choose to speculate and trade more often when opportunities arise.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on August 29, 2014.

Market Report: Summer doldrums coming to an end

The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London’s bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London’s pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York. It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.
Measured by deliveries on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Chinese demand is increasing, with last week’s figure rising to 46 tonnes, having increased every week in August. So far this year over 1,200 tonnes have been delivered, and the extension of trading and therefore potential demand into the Free Trade Zone is due to kick off in September.
The chart of the gold price and open interest on Comex is shown below.

This post was published at GoldMoney on 29 August 2014.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – A Tale of Two Metals Markets – Shout and Feel It

Nothing of particular interest was shown in the Comex reports from yesterday. Tomorrow we bid adieu to the August contract. Time to move our eyes to the September month which is active for silver but not gold. The precious metals are unfortunately very politicized in this currency war. That is both a risk, and an opportunity. There was intraday commentary on the metals here. There are obviously two metals markets, one of paper, and one of real metal delivered and taken. One is most expressed in the overnight market with trading in Asia and Europe, and another that starts after the New York opening bell.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 28 AUGUST 2014.

Silver Pricing Change Takes Effect, Other metals to follow

With the launch in mid-August of a new system to arrive at the price for silver, precious metals investors are dealing with the first in a series of changes in how the market prices of silver, gold, platinum and palladium are reached.
More change is coming, since the other three metals have yet to go through the process, but what’s happened so far is this: Concerns about price fixing after everything from LIBOR to currency were found to have been manipulated led to accusations about the gold and silver markets, and in January of this year Germany’s financial regulator Bafin said that the manipulation of precious metals prices was worse than that occurring with LIBOR.
Deutsche Bank was interviewed by Bafin on the matter before the end of 2013, and in January the bank announced that it would exit the commodities business and abandon its positions in the processes of fixing gold and silver prices. Since Deutsche Bank was one of only three involved in the 117-year-old process of setting the price of silver – the other two were HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia – that meant a new method had to be found before Deutsche Bank departed the scene.
In August, that new method launched. An electronic, auction-based mechanism has taken the place of the traditional conference call among the three banks that had determined how silver would be priced since the time of Queen Victoria. Run by CME Group Inc. and Thomson Reuters Corp., the new system uses electronically entered orders proposing a starting price; if buy and sell orders don’t match up, an algorithm will determine the price to be used for the next bidding round. CME had said in a report when the system went live that each round should take 30 seconds or less, and that participants will be able to view bid and offer volumes, as well as total volumes traded once the price is set.

This post was published at TruthinGold on August 28, 2014.

Can The New Silver Fix End The Ongoing Silver Price Manipulation?

The new silver fix is a fact since 17th August 2014. The silver fix has been a driver in setting the silver price in the last 117 years, but now a revised ‘fixing mechanism’ with other ‘fixing members’ is in place. Up until August 14th2014, three institutions have been participating to the daily silver fix, i.e. Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA N. A. and The Bank of Nova Scotia. In the new silver fix, the participating members are HSBC, ScotiaMocatta and Mitsui.
Before looking into the question what to expect from the ‘new’ silver fix, it is important to understand what the ‘old’ silver fix has done to the price of silver. Commodity analyst Dimitri Speck has focused his research on discovering silver price manipulation related to the silver fix, more so than the Gold Fix. Based on his extended statistical analysis around intraday average price patterns, he was able to pinpoint when exactly the manipulation (or, intervention) took place, and he provided the world unbiased charts. The next paragraphs focus on his findings; they are based on Dimitri Speck his book ‘The Gold Cartel.’
The book ‘The Gold Cartel; Government Intervention in Gold, the Mega-Bubble in Paper and What this Means for your Future’ is written by commodity analyst and precious metals expert Dimitri Speck. The book is available at Amazon. It is one of the few ‘must read’ books on precious metals with important investment insights for serious investors.
The key in uncovering the silver price manipulation is to analyze price patterns in three distinct time frames:
Before 2010 Between 2010 and April 2011 After May 2011 In the period before 2010, the intraday average silver price chart clearly shows statistically significant anomalies. The first chart shows the intraday average price between August 1998 and 2011. The obvious observation is that a significant price break down has been appearing right at the silver fix, which is at 7AM EST (New York time). A second sharp decline is visible at 10AM EST, which is probably linked to the gold fixing, see below. The chart takes into account almost 13 years of data, it excludes every form of coincidence or randomness.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on August 28, 2014.

A RISING JUNIOR GOLD STOCK TO WATCH

You’ve barely heard from me in The Dollar Vigilante (TDV) Blog for the last few years in terms of my picks for gold and silver stocks. If you aren’t a TDV newsletter subscriber, where I comment nearly weekly on the markets and on precious metals stocks you’d think I’d all but disappeared.
However, Jeff Berwick and I have been on the same page that the market wasn’t ready for a heavy focus the last few years, and I’ve been helping our subscribers maintain and manage their portfolios and develop their broader macro-economic outlooks (which included a bullish call on stocks up until the end of 2013 that was not popular with most subscribers). Meanwhile, Jeff has done a great job in focusing on other areas that have had massive growth including bitcoin (up from $7 to $500 since he began talking about it in 2011) and now medical marijuana stocks, one of which, Organigram, just delivered a double since it was brought to TDV and TDV Golden Trader subscribers just a few weeks ago and went public yesterday at more than double the price our subscribers got into it at.
But, as Jeff has recently stated, we believe now is the time to buy gold and silver shares, if for no other reason because they’ve been abandoned by even the value investor. In the TDV portfolio, we have about 18 companies, and we are working towards rounding it out at 20 names.
Two of them have disappeared in takeovers in recent months: Osisko Mining and Papillon Resources.
The buyers are companies that are already included in our portfolio (i.e. Agnico Eagle, Yamana, and B2Gold) so we have not lost the assets altogether. But it gave investors a bit of liquidity and nice gains for those who bought along with us, as we suggested, and it left room for us to bring in a couple of new picks. I will be telling you about them soon (of course subscribers will get first access – you can subscribe here). Importantly, the timing is good. What we see now is that most gold/silver shares have been bottoming for over a year. Some have been rallying through the year, like Agnico Eagle.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on August 26th, 2014.

Is This A Gold And Silver Bear Market Or A Correction In A Secular Uptrend?

Does the following contrast sound familiar to you? Mainstream media headlines, mostly based on either mainstream economists or large financial institutions, report continuously how weak the precious metals market is; they hasten to remember readers how the bull market had burst in 2011 and that much lower prices are just around the corner. In their view, after peaking in 2011, gold and silver are in a clear bear market. On the other hand, writers and analysts that are non-mainstream (most of them non-Keynesian) consider today’s gold and silver market as a long correction in a gigantic secular uptrend; they expect (much) higher prices in the years to come. The interesting thing is that everyone is looking at the same data and charts.
The key question is whether the gold market is correcting in a secular trend or the bear market is here to stay(till the next cycle starts).
In order to answer that question, the team at ShortSideOfLong did an excellent job comparing the ongoing correction in gold and silver with previous corrections. Based on purely chart observations it seems feasible (with a high probability) to come to a reliable answer. One should note that the data in the following two charts come from the period after 1971, as that was the year when gold started to trade in a ‘free market’ (after US President Nixon closed the gold window on August 16th 1971).
The first chart shows different gold bear markets since 1971. The conclusions from the chart come from the analysts at ShortSideOfLong:

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on August 23, 2014

Jim Kunstler’s 2014 Forecast

Over at ZeroHedge, Jim Kunstler’s latest post on his forecast for 2014 is a MUST READ!!  Readers should greatly benefit from his astonishingly honest take on everything from the shale oil sham to last year’s gold slam.  He even gets into Obamacare, Bitcoin the Euro crisis and the middle east.

Excerpt: Paper and digital markets levitate, central banks pull out all the stops of their magical reality-tweaking machine to manipulate everything, accounting fraud pervades public and private enterprise, everything is mis-priced, all official statistics are lies of one kind or another, the regulating authorities sit on their hands, lost in raptures of online pornography (or dreams of future employment at Goldman Sachs), the news media sprinkles wishful-thinking propaganda about a mythical “recovery” and the “shale gas miracle” on a credulous public desperate to believe, the routine swindles of medicine get more cruel and blatant each month, a tiny cohort of financial vampire squids suck in all the nominal wealth of society, and everybody else is left whirling down the drain of posterity in a vortex of diminishing returns and scuttled expectations.

Read the entire article at ZeroHedge.

The Big Picture = Corruption

In a recent interview, Kyle Bass, the well-known founder of Hayman Capital, revealed that “There’s no real way out” of the current economic situation that has resulted from the fiscal profligacy of the central banks.  And later in that same interview, when asked his opinion of what the ‘average investor’ should be doing in this environment, Mr. Bass could only make the suggestion that they “should be very careful doing what the central bankers want them do.”  With low yielding interest rates, the central banks are pushing average investors into taking on more risk with higher yielding equities.

But it’s even worse than that.  Fundamentals don’t seem to matter much in these uncharted economic waters.  Why?  Because as Barry Ritholtz has so thoroughly outlined in his Big Picture analysis of the markets – they’re all rigged!  The average investor is at the mercy of the big banks and crony capitalism.

Yes, be very careful indeed!