• Tag Archives OPEC
  • OPEC To Take Drastic Action Despite Shale Slowdown

    WTI recently dipped below $50 per barrel for the first time in a month, erasing the strong September rally. It’s no coincidence that after two weeks of price declines, OPEC has tried to talk up the oil market again, hinting that more drastic action could be forthcoming.
    Echoing the world’s top central bankers, OPEC’s Secretary General said that the oil cartel might need to take ‘extraordinary’ measures to balance the oil market next year. ‘There is a growing consensus that, number one, the re-balancing process is underway,’ OPEC’s Mohammad Barkindo told reporters on Sunday in New Delhi. ‘Number two, to sustain this into next year, some extraordinary measures may have to be taken in order to restore this stability on a sustainable basis going forward.’
    As always, OPEC is vague on the specifics, but the working assumption is that the group will agree to an extension of the cuts until at least mid-2018, or perhaps even as late as through the end of the year. There’s been some discussion about deeper production cuts, but there aren’t a ton of analysts who see OPEC going that far, despite Barkindo’s cryptic language.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2017.


  • “All-In” Hedge-Funds Turn Cautious Ahead Of OPEC As Oil Prices Stumble

    With WTI back below the Maginot Line of $50, speculative investors are growing increasingly anxious about their record extreme bullish positioning across the energy complex.
    As Reuters’ John Kemp reports, hedge fund bullishness towards crude oil and refined products including gasoline and diesel appears to have peaked for now, according to an analysis of regulatory and exchange records.
    Speculative traders’ positioning across crude and especially refined fuels had looked increasingly lopsided in recent weeks as fund managers turned from very bearish in June to super-bullish by the end of September.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 9, 2017.


  • WTI/RBOB Plunge On Saudi, Russia Comments; Rig Count Resumes Decline

    WTI and RBOB are plunging following comments from the Saudi minister that “he doesn’t know” if November meeting will agree on a production cut deal extension, and Russia’s Novak confirmed that there is “no clarity” on a deal extension.
    Saudi Arabia will work with Russia to reach a consensus in the next few weeks before the Nov. 30 OPEC/non-OPEC meeting in Vienna, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih says at a meeting with Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Moscow. OPEC and non-OPEC producers will discuss ‘what to do beyond March’ at that meeting: Al-Falih
    Both ministers say it’s too early to say whether or not the November meeting will yield an agreement to extend the production cuts
    Amid higher OPEC production and the prompt return of supplies from Libya, futures prices are under pressure.
    After last week’s surprise rise (+6) in the rig count, the US Oil rig count declined by 2 this week to 748…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles Below $50 To 3-Week Lows

    On the heels of continued dollar strength, output increases by OPEC (and US production at 2 year highs), and Libya restarting its biggest oilfield, WTI prices are tumbling for the 3rd time this week, back below $50 to their lowest in 3 weeks…
    As Bloomberg notes, while oil rallied into a bull market last month on the prospect of stronger demand, prices struggled to hold above $52 a barrel as supply grew from the U. S. and two members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that are exempt from making cuts.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2017.


  • Maduro Visits Putin, Proposes Global Oil Trade In Rubles, Yuan

    Three weeks after the US imposed financial sanctions on Venezuela in an effort to cripple its economy and choke the Maduro regime, which in turn prompted Caracas to announce it would no longer receive or send payments in dollars, and that those who wished to trade Venezuelan crude would have to do so in Chinese Yuan, today during an energy summit held in Moscow, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro proposed to expand his own personal blockade of the US, by proposing that all oil producing countries discuss creating a currency basket for trading crude and refined products. One which is no longer reliant on the (petro)dollar.
    ‘Developing a new mechanism of controlling the oil market is necessary,’ Maduro said on Wednesday at the Russian Energy Forum, being held in Moscow this week.
    Quoted by RT, Maduro also blamed trade in crude oil paper futures as having an adverse impact on the oil market, which has undermined attempts by OPEC to stabilize prices. To counteract such “speculation”, Maduro proposed an alternative currency basket, one which is based not on the world’s reserve currency but includes the yuan, ruble, and other currencies, and which will mitigate the alleged adverse impact of futures trading.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 4, 2017.


  • Global Markets Spooked By North Korea H-Bomb Threat; Focus Turns To Brexit Speech

    S&P futures retreated along with European and Asian shares with tech, and Apple supplier shares leading the drop while safe havens such as gold and the yen rose, as the war of words between U. S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un escalated and North Korea threatened to launch a hydrogen bomb, leading to a prompt return of geopolitical concerns. Trade focus now turns to a planned speech by Theresa May on Brexit (full preview here).
    As reported last night, the key overnight event was the latest threat by North Korea that its counter-measure may mean testing a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific, according to reports in Yonhap citing North Korea’s Foreign Minister. North Korea’s leader Kim said North Korea will consider “corresponding, highest level of hard-line measure in history” against US, while he also stated that President Trump’s UN speech was rude nonsense and demonstrated insanity and inhumanity which confirmed North Korea’s nuclear and missile advances are on right path and will continue to the end. There was more on the geopolitical front with the Iranian President
    informing armed forces that the nation will bolster its missile
    capabilities, according to local TV.
    As a result, treasury yields pulled back and the dollar slid the most in two weeks following North Korea’s threat it could test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index edged lower as a rout in base metals deepened, weighing on mining shares. WTI crude halted its rally above $50 a barrel as OPEC members gathered in Vienna.
    US stock futures pulled back 0.1% though markets were showing growing signs of fatigue over the belligerent U. S.-North Korea rhetoric. ‘North Korea poses such a binary risk that it’s very hard to price, and at the moment investors just have to look through it,’ said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Despite the latest jitters, MSCI’s world equity index remained on track for another weekly gain, holding near its latest record high hit on Wednesday as investors’ enthusiasm for stocks showed few signs of waning.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 22, 2017.


  • The Low Oil Price Guts Another OPEC Oil Exporter

    The low oil price is negatively impacting another OPEC oil exporter as it continues to liquidate its foreign exchange reserves. Algeria, like Saudi Arabia, has seen its international reserves plummet by more than 40% as the oil price fell in half since 2014.
    Algeria joined OPEC back in 1969 and is currently producing 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (mbd). While Algeria is not one of the larger OPEC members, it still exports roughly 670,000 barrels of oil per day. At $50 a barrel, the country receives $33.5 million a day in oil revenues. However, Algeria’s oil revenues have taken a nose-dive as the oil price declined from over $100 in 2014 to below $50 currently:

    This post was published at SRSrocco Report on SEPTEMBER 20, 2017.


  • Oil Prices Today Are Finally Rebounding and Will Hit This Target Before 2018

    Oil prices today (Tuesday, Sept. 19) are trading above $50 a barrel, which puts oil on track for its highest closing price since July. And we predict oil prices will head even higher before the end of the year, too…
    WTI crude oil prices are trading at $50.26 a barrel today and are up 3.5% since just last week, when they opened at $48.23 on Thursday.
    Oil prices continue to rebound after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma wiped out demand across the southeast United States. The destruction of pipelines, refineries, and commerce across Florida and the Gulf Coast region meant oil pumped out of the ground was being stored instead of used. That boosted supplies and lowered prices. Commercial crude supplies rose 2.2% between the weeks of Aug. 25 and Sept. 8.
    Oil prices fell 4% between Aug. 25 and Aug. 30 as Hurricane Harvey made landfall in Texas, and they fell 3.2% between Sept. 7 and Sept. 12 as Irma barreled through the Caribbean and Florida.
    Oil prices have struggled to stay above the $50 a barrel mark this year, despite OPEC renewing its oil production cut in May.
    But our oil price forecast shows oil prices will continue to rise in 2017, and one important oil price indicator shows it’s about to happen soon…

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Dustin Parrett ‘ September 19, 2017.


  • Algeria Officially Launches Helicopter Money Amid Sliding Oil Revenue, Budget Crisis

    One year ago, the imminent arrival of helicopter money among endless discussions of pervasive lowflation was all the rage within high-finance policy circles. Then, everything changed as if on a dime, and in recent months the dominant topic has been global coordinated tightening – and in some cases even revisions to central bank mandates and the lowering of inflation targets – perhaps as a result of central banks’ realization that monetizing debt by central banks leads to bad outcomes, not to mention global asset bubbles.
    But not everywhere.
    On Sunday, Algeria’s prime minister unveiled a plan to plug the country’s budget deficit as the the OPEC member state looks to offset lower oil revenue by directly borrowing from the central bank, while avoiding international debt markets. In other words, direct monetization of debt, which bypasses commercial banks as a monetary intermediate, and is better known as “helicopter money.”
    According to Bloomberg, the five-year plan presented by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia aims to balance the budget by 2022, and reverse a deficit that ballooned with the plunge in global crude prices, which also cut foreign reserves by nearly half.
    “If we turn to external debt, as the IMF suggests, we will need to borrow $20 billion a year to repay the deficit and within four years we will be unable to repay the debt,” Ouyahia said. ‘This is what made the government look at non-traditional financing.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 17, 2017.


  • Yesterday’s “Watershed” Central Bank Announcement Which Everybody Missed

    In what may have been a watershed moment in monetary policy – which awkwardly was missed by almost everyone as a result of the concurrent launch of the latest North Korean ballistic missile which immediately drowned out all other newsflow – late on Thursday, the Bank of Canada held a conference on inflation targeting and monetary policy titled “Bank of Canada Workshop ‘Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal” in which, in a stunning shift of monetary orthodoxy, BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins said that Canada was open to changes in the BoC mandate.
    WILKINS: OPEN TO LOOKING AT `SENSIBLE’ ALTERNATIVES TO MANDATE Or in other words, lowering or outright abolishing the central bank’s inflation target, or explicitly targeting financial conditions and asset prices.
    While still early in the process, the BOC may be setting a precedent, one which other DM central banks may have no choice but to follow: If the Bank of Canada is going to look at alternatives to their mandate (with an emphasis on inflation), it – as several trading desks have suggested – could become the first central bank to officially change its mandate to reflect financial conditions that are too loose in the context of the current low r-star lowflation environment.
    In practical terms, this would mean that instead of seeking chronically easier conditions to hit legacy inflation targets around ~2.0% while inflating ever greater asset bubbles, one or more central banks could simply say that 1.5% (or less) is sufficient for CPI and call it a day, in the process soaking up record easy financial conditions and bursting countless asset bubbles. In the context of a “new supply paradigm” in retail (where even FOMC members now blame Amazon for lack of inflation) and energy (same but with OPEC) which appears to be gaining traction within central banks, as well as frustration with distortion in asset markets, It would make much sense for the Fed to lower the inflation target to 1.5%, declare victory, and normalize policy.
    Why? Because as several banks noted after the BoC conference, we know that central banks world-wide are concerned about the size of their balance sheets and associated dysfunctionality in government and other bond markets, and the ever-increasing risks from the ultimate unwind as the QE programs continue to grow in a war against inflation where the victory looks increasingly Pyrrhic. Furthermore, negative rates have caused money markets to become dysfunctional and less efficient, which could be a structural issue “if the temporary was allowed to become permanent.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.


  • Hurricane Harvey Is A Disaster For OPEC

    Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,
    The skies are clearing over Houston, but the damage from the remaining elements of Hurricane Harvey has spread east to Port Arthur and Lake Charles along the Texas-Louisiana border. That has knocked more refineries offline, including the largest refinery in the United States.
    In the aftermath of the storm, the most serious threat to the energy industry is the extended outage of refineries and pipelines, according to Goldman Sachs. The problem actually looks worse than it did earlier this week as the deluge has shifted towards Port Arthur, another refining hub. Motiva, which runs the U. S.’ largest refinery in Port Arthur, began to completely shut down its 600,000 bpd facility on Wednesday.
    Goldman says the refinery shut downs, as of August 30, have spiked to 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), although upstream oil production outages have dropped below 1 mb/d. More ports are now closed – in addition to Corpus Christi and Houston, the ports of Lake Charles, Beaumont, and Port Arthur have shut down.
    These outages, the investment bank says, will mean that the ‘ongoing recovery in production will only be partial.’ The refinery and pipeline closures are ‘leaving the oil market long 1.9 mb/d of crude vs. last Thursday, short 1.1 mb/d for gasoline and 0.8 mb/d for distillate.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 1, 2017.


  • $20 Oil? Forget OPEC, China Controls Oil Prices

    U. S. shale has taken a lot of headline space recently as the biggest headwind for oil prices and the highest stumbling block for OPEC’s efforts to prop them up by cutting production. Yet, there may be another factor that could bring down oil prices as soon as next year…
    China.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 24, 2017.


  • NEW EASTERN ENERGY CARTEL: Replacement to the Dead Petro-Dollar

    The Petro-Dollar is dead. It had served so well for over 40 years in maintaining the USDollar as global currency reserve, while keeping tight the controls on geopolitical power. The link between crude oil and the USDollar has been broken, painfully evident since 2016 with a harsh price decline that cannot rise about the $50 level. It remains stuck below that level despite heavy collusion in a demonstration that OPEC is dead defunct also. A void has been created in the energy sector, a most important sector. Enter Russia & China to fill the void. Both the crude oil market and the natural gas market have new alliances which feature nations acting in a cooperative manner. The common element is Russia on the production side, complete with pipeline arrays. The common other element is China on the demand side with large customer needs and financial influence. This article describes the two emerging organizations, which the Jackass calls the Oil Consortium and the NatGas Cartel. It will serve the Eurasian Trade Zone. It will function outside the USD payment system. It is ripe for Gold payment structure in the near future. In no way do these qualify as coffin nails for the Petro-Dollar. The funeral for the corrupted abused hegemon USDollar might have taken place with the Trump charade in Saudi Arabia a month ago. The emerging energy organizations signal the new dawn after the funeral without eulogy.
    GLOBAL DOMINANCE CAST ASIDE
    The USDollar is integrally related to the global dominance that the United States has fostered for global benefit, then later distorted into a credit abuse dynamic but hardly for benefit, then finally abused beyond legitimate basis for global aggression and financial extortion. The dominance is unraveling within the Global Paradigm Shift. It is indeed late in the game for the shift, whereby no reversal to repair the USDollar is possible. The Eastern energy cartel has a firm foundation, leaving the West with no possible response. The consequences are vast, extending to the USMilitary. Its reliance upon free oil is ending. The over-stretched military presence will repeat the end of the road that the British Military faced several decades ago. Both the British and the Americans have lost their cherished global reserve currency, and along with it, lost power and prestige. In recent months, the US has proved it has very few friends even among its list of allies.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 24 August 2017.


  • The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil

    One of the key objectives for OPEC is to bring down inventories, a goal that has been elusive this year. But if the oil futures curve is anything to go by, the oil market is showing signs of tightening.
    Brent futures have recently begun to exhibit a state of backwardation, which is when near-term oil futures trade at a premium to contracts dated further off into the future. This is the first time in years that backwardation has occurred, and most analysts are taking it as a sign that the oil market finally could be getting closer to rebalancing. In the past, backwardations have accompanied a rebound in the oil market after a bust, while a contango (the opposite of backwardation) tends to occur when the market crashes because of a supply glut.
    There are several reasons why backwardation is bullish, which has been discussed in previous articles. A declining futures curve makes it uneconomical to store oil, so backwardation could accelerate the drawdown in inventories. It also complicates the hedging strategies of shale producers, which could hold back expansion plans. It also is a symptom of tightening near-term supplies, although, to be sure, the flip side of that argument is that it could merely be a reflection of expectations that the supply glut will reemerge at some point in the future.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 17, 2017.


  • World Equity Indexes Mostly Up; OPEC Meeting In Focu

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading, following the gains posted on Wall Street Friday. Focus early this week is on a two-day OPEC meeting. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
    Gold prices are weaker on some follow-through selling pressure from Friday’s losses that came in the wake of an upbeat U. S. jobs report that favored U. S. monetary policy hawks who would rather see another Fed rate hike soon.
    The U. S. dollar index rallied following the jobs report and closed at a bullish weekly high close Friday. That is an early technical clue that a market bottom is in place. However, the greenback is a bit weaker on a corrective pullback Monday, and is still in a solid price downtrend on the daily chart.
    Nymex crude oil futures are lower in early trading Monday and trading just below $49.00 a barrel. Oil market watchers are awaiting news coming out of this week’s OPEC meeting in Abu Dhabi. Many believe some OPEC members are cheating on their production quotas, and the meeting will address that matter.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 7, 2017.


  • Dow To Rise Above 22,000 On Apple Earnings; Europe Pressured By Surging Euro

    Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.8% after Apple surged to record highs following a strong beat and optimistic projections ahead of the launch of the company’s new batch of iPhones. Eminis are little changed, up 0.1% to 2,475, trailing Asian markets, while European stocks and crude oil fall.
    Apple surged 6% after-hours to a new record highm taking its market capitalization above $830 billion. That should help carry the Dow through the 22,000 mark when the market opens. Among Asia’s Apple suppliers, LG Innnotek jumped 10 percent and SK Hynix, the world’s second-biggest memory chip maker, rose 3.8 percent. Murata Manufacturing firmed 4.9 percent and Taiyo Yuden 4.4 percent, helping the Nikkei up 0.47 percent.
    “It is all about Apple,” said Naeem Aslam chief market analyst at Think Markets. “The firm comfortably topped its forecast and produced stellar numbers for its revenue and profit.
    Oil came under pressure again as higher than expected US inventories and reports of rising OPEC output helped drive prices below back below $48/bbl (WTI crude). In FX markets, the USD dollar gave up some gains late in the session with DXY edging down by 0.1% and the euro rising to $1.1827. Treasury yields are 0.5-2bps higher across the curve with the 10y at 2.273%.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 2, 2017.


  • WTI Tumbles After Surprise Crude Inventory Build

    Following the ugliest day in a month for WTI (on OPEC production increase survey), bulls hopes rest on tonight’s API data confirming the recent trend of inventory draws but that was not to be. Against expectations of a 3.1mm draw, API reported crude inventories built by 1.78mm barrels last week. The kneejerk reaction was clear – down hard.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


  • Oil Just Plunged To A $48 Handle After Survey Suggests OPEC Output Jumped In July

    Extending losses from Goldman’s overnight report noting the minimal impact of Venezuelan sanctions, WTI crude just crashed below $49 on heavy volume after Bloomberg reports that a survey suggests that OPEC’s July oil output rose by 210K to 32.87mmb/d, led by growth in Libya who upped production by 180Kb/d to the highest since June 2013.
    The recovery of crude production from Libya is undermining OPEC’s efforts to curb its output as the African nation pumps unabated.
    Total crude production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in July rose 210,000 barrels a day from June to reach 32.87 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


  • WTI Jumps Above $50 On Report US Prepping Sanctions Against Venezuela Oil Industry

    After both Brent and WTI rose above their respective 50DMAs on Friday, capping 2017’s best weekly rally for oil, the rising tide is accelerating as the latest CFTC COT data confirmed, when net specs boosted bullish Nymex WTI crude oil bets by 27K net-long positions to 423K, the highest in two months, as producers continued to cover short hedges, sending their net position to the most bullish since the summer of 2015.

    Meanwhile, oil started the Sunday session jumping out of the gate, with WTI rising above $50 for the first time since May in early Asian trading, following the usual non-material weekend chatter and “noise” out of OPEC (which to exactly nobody’s surprise “can’t stop pumping“), however what has attracted traders’ attention, is a WSJ report that following last week’s latest round of sanctions, and after today’s vote to overhaul Venezuela’s constitution further entrenching Maduro’s unpopular regime, US government officials are considering announcing sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry as early as Monday, although as the WSJ notes, a full-blown “embargo against Venezuelan crude oil imports into the U. S. is off the table for now.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 30, 2017.