• Tag Archives NASDAQ
  • No Vol And No Volume – Even The WSJ Questions Equity Melt-Up

    It’s encouraging to see that one mainstream media outlet questioning the recent market melt-up which wasn’t just notable for the lack of volatility, but also a severe lack of volume. The new normal seems to be ‘No vol and no volume’, although we saw a bit of a regime shift today, before the normal reversal.
    The WSJ noted today that ‘Stocks continue to hit record highs, yet those pushing them there are trading less and less. The number of stocks and exchange-traded products changing hands in the U. S. and Europe has fallen steadily in recent months as ultralow volatility, a lack of market-moving news and the rising popularity of passive investment funds have kept many investors on the sidelines.’
    The chart below of trading volume in both regions is ugly, to say the least, especially in Europe where it’s the lowest in five years. Aggregated trading volume for NYSE, NYSE American, NYSE Arca and the NASDAQ this month is reported to be down 12% versus the average for the year and 22% below last year’s average. It’s become so bad that even ETF trading is 8.5% below last year.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 19, 2017.

  • Mnuchin Deploys Stock Market Bubble as Political Weapon

    But the National Debt has disappeared from the agenda. The S&P 500 has soared 20% since the presidential election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 26%, and the Nasdaq 28%, in about 11 months. Understandably, everyone is taking credit for the surge in stock prices, including President Trump, who according to CNBC, has tweeted ‘more than 20 times since the election’ about the stock market, ‘extolling the market’s gains,’ including this gem on Monday: ‘Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase.’
    The folks in Congress are heavily invested in the skyrocketing stock market, and unless they pass the tax cut, their gains could be eviscerated – that’s the warning that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has thrown their way in an interview with Politico.
    Sure, everyone wants a tax cut – the lucky ones that get them. Especially since we no longer have to worry about how to pay for it. The reason we don’t have to worry about it anymore is because the US national debt has miraculously disappeared from the agenda.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Oct 18, 2017.

  • Eric Peters: “This Is The Nightmare Scenario For The Next Fed Chair”

    While we will have much more to share from the latest weekend letter by One River’s Eric Peters shortly, we found the following section on inflation vs asset bubbles – a topic which BofA’s Michael Hartnett has been focusing extensively on in the past year and which serves as the basis for the “Icarus Rally” – particularly notable as it explains all of today’s comments from Janet Yellen and other central bankers, discussing why it is only a matter of time before inflation returns, as the alternative, as Peters’ explains, is a world in which yields simply refuse to go up, leading to a nightmare scenario for the next Fed chair, who will be forced to pop the world’s biggest asset bubble.
    Excerpted from the latest weekend notes by One River CIO, Eric Peters:
    ‘Why are we not experiencing deflation?’ he asked. ‘How can the top five stocks in the Nasdaq reduce US GDP but we feel better off?’ he asked. ‘Why are Americans buying no more cars today than in 1978 when our population is 100mm higher?’ he asked. ‘Why compare today to a world of combustion engines when we have so many more interesting things to do without moving an inch?’ he asked.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 15, 2017.

  • Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid But Dow Bounces Back To Another Record High


    The S&P (orange) managed to scramble back into the green on the week but Small Caps (dark red) and Nasdaq (green) remain red. Trannies (blue) knee-jerked higher (on airlines) at the open but faded all day… The Dow hit a new record high (thanks to WalMart and Boeing)

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 10, 2017.

  • October Realized Volatility Is Now The Lowest On Record

    After September was declared the lowest volatility month on record, October is starting auspiciously, if only for the vol sellers.
    After last week stocks rose again on renewed hopes of a Trump tax deal and following a payrolls report which showed the hottest wage inflation since the financial crisis, the S&P 500 closed the week 1.19% higher, while the Russell 2000 added 1.30%, the NASDAQ 100 increased 1.43%, and the Dow gained 1.65%.
    And while implied vol limped up slightly week-over-week as the VIX increased 0.14 points to 9.65 last Friday, this was the eighth consecutive close below 10. However, on Thursday the VIX closed at 9.19, the lowest close of all time. The trend appears set to continue, because as Bank of America’s derivatives expert Benjamin Bowler writes while October tends to have the highs volatility of all months of the year, this time is different and currently the annualized month-to-date realized vol for the S&P is 5.22%, the lowest October we’ve seen on record spanning back to 1928. For comparison, the median SPX realized vol in October is 17.22%, while the 1st percentile is 6.15%. Interestingly, the other four lowest vol Octobers were all in the 1960s (’61, ’64, ’65, and ’68), the period prior to “The Great Inflation” and rapidly rising rates of the 1970s.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 10, 2017.

  • The Blow-Off Top: “More S&P Delta Was Bought In Last 2 Weeks Than At Any Point Since 2007”

    Last week, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett summarized the current market as follows: the “best reason to be bearish in Q4 is there is no reason to be bearish.” He also observed that tha market’s “blow off top” phase, which he dubbed the Icarus Rally previously, had been activated and was approaching its final thrust, with BofA’s Q4 targets for this final push in risk assets as follows: S&P 2630, Nasdaq 6666, 10-year Treasury 2.85%, EUR 1.15.
    And yet, some have argued that Hartnett’s designation is not accurate, as there simply is not enough exuberance and euphoria to defined this phase of the market as a blow off top. Which, of course, is also debatable: for one, CNN’s frequently noted Fear and Greed index closed last week at a level of 95, indicating of near widespread euphoria.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 9, 2017.

  • The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

    Man, what an awful stretch of events.
    When I penned last week’s article on tragedy, little did I expect something as horrible as the Las Vegas massacre would immediately follow. And nearly lost in the headlines was the untimely passing of rock legend, Tom Petty, one of my all-time favorite musicians. Sure can’t wait for this week to be over…
    In memory of Tom, I’ve been listening to a lot of his and the Heartbreakers’ best hits. The lyrics to one song in particular, The Waiting, well-captures an important message today’s investors should take to heart:
    The waiting is the hardest part Don’t let it kill you baby, don’t let it get to you Those waiting for the financial markets to experience some sort (any sort!) of pullback have been waiting a long, looong time. How long?
    It has been over 100 months (more than 8.5 years) since the current bull market began in April of 2009 It has been 15 months since the last (and very brief) drop of 5% in the S&P 500 This past September saw record low volatility, including a stretch now claimed to be ‘the most peaceful days in the history of the markets’ Since last year’s presidential election, at which point the markets were already considered dangerously overvalued, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 20% As of this article’s publishing, the Dow, the S&P and the NASDAQ are all trading at record highs.

    This post was published at PeakProsperity on Thursday, October 5, 2017,.

  • Homebuilder Stocks Surge To Bubble Highs, There’s Just One Thing…

    A key index of housing stocks has finally made it back to the highs of last decade’s bubble.
    As Dana Lyons explains, one of the, in some ways surprising, achievements of the current bull market in stocks has been its ability to resuscitate former busted bubble sectors once left for dead. For example, early this year we saw the Nasdaq 100 finally break decisively above its dotcom-laden bubble top of 2000. This year has also seen a resurgence in bank stocks, with the dead cats jumping off the financial crisis mat to within spitting distance of their pre-crisis levels. And in this latest rally, we are seeing another former bubble poster child building its way back up to its former highs – housing stocks.
    In fact, at the end of last week, the benchmark PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) made its way all the way back to its 2005 bubble top for the first time in a dozen years.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2017.

  • Kolanovic: “This Is What The Next Crisis Will Look Like”

    There are two distinct parts to the latest, just released research note from JPM’s quant “wizard” Marko Kolanovic.
    In the first part, the infamous predictor of market swoons takes on an unexpectedly cheerful demeanor, and explains why contrary to his recent market outlooks, near-term risks for a market selloff appear to have abated. First, he looks at the tax-related rotations within the market in the past month, and notes that in September “the administration drip-fed US tax reform news, which propped up the market and spurred large sector rotations.” As a result, “financials, Industrials, and Materials were up ~5%, Energy ~9% and Small Caps ~7%. On the other side of the Tax trade were bond proxies (Utilities, Staples, REITs) down ~2-3% and Technology-heavy Nasdaq that was down ~0.5%. These offsetting sector moves reduced the typically elevated September volatility to its lowest level since 1964.”
    He then goes on to note that in addition to the tax rotations, “volatility was reduced as market rose and got pinned at the 2,500 level for most of the month (this level was popular with option sellers, leaving dealers locally long gamma).”
    Picking up on what Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar Kocic has been writing about in recent weeks, namely the apparent failure of “exogenous shocks to shock the market”, as shocks themselves become endogenous phenomena, Kolanovic also writes that in fading daily headline risk, “tax reform and infrastructure will remain a central focus for investors, and it seems that bits and pieces of information can still excite fund managers”, something he previously called the ‘Trump Put’ effect.
    As a result, between rotations and fundamentals, the coast – at least for the near-term – appears to be clear:
    “With the upcoming positive Q3 earnings season, uptick in global growth, promise of tax reform keeping fundamental funds invested, and low volatility keeping systematic strategies invested, near-term risks of a sell-off have abated.”
    Putting this view into a trade recommendation, Kolanovic says that “our equity market upside trades include upside on Small Caps, Financials, Value and diversified tax-beneficiaries basket.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2017.

  • SocGen: “Global Earnings Are Back To 2014 Levels; Stocks Are 15% Higher”

    Is it QE or is it earnings?
    With the Dow starting off the final quarter with a bang, surging to new all time highs alongside the S&P, few care what is prompting the latest surge in risk assets, which is a problem because as One River CIO Eric Peters noted yesterday, we have gotten to the point where measures of market performance have mutated into trading vehicles (and price targets) – such as the VIX, which drifted lower after an early spike today that appeared to briefly break the Nasdaq, and launch today’s buying spree. And with everyone selling vol, the implication is that there is nothing to be worried about, even if the actual indicator of implied vol is no longer relevant as it itself has become the most actively traded product by retail and institutional investors alike (hardly surprising to anyone who has read Soros’ 10+ year old ruminations on market reflexivity).
    Whatever the reason though, stocks continue to levitate and not just in the US, but across the world, with SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne reporting that the MSCI World index surpassed 2000 for the first time and in turn has delivered its eleventh successive month of positive total returns. This ranks as the second longest period of consecutive gains for MSCI World since its formation in 1969, with realised volatility collapsing as a consequence.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 2, 2017.

  • ‘Broken’ Market Sparks Buying Panic In Stocks…

    t appears the crucial link between HFT algos and the options market just broke as BATS options exchanges have declared self-help again NASDAQ ISE. VIX is spiking as stocks open, but stocks limping very modestly lower.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 2, 2017.

  • Bank of America: “The Best Reason To Be Bearish Is…There Is No Reason To Be Bearish”

    Back in mid-July, Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote “The Most Dangerous Moment For Markets Will Come In 3 Or 4 Months” in which he warned that “further upside in risk assets will create problems later in the year” and concluded that “ultimately, we believe the extremely strong performance by equities and bonds in H1 is very unlikely to be repeated in H2” because “monetary policy will have to tighten to raise volatility, reduce Wall St inflation, and reduce inequality. There are two ways to cure inequality: you can make the poor richer, or you can make the rich poorer. The Fed will reduce its balance sheet in the hope of making Wall St poorer.”
    Or maybe not, because almost three months later, the same Hartnett today writes that the “best reason to be bearish is…there is no reason to be bearish.” and admits that the “Icarus ‘long risk’ trade extended into autumn (Humpty-Dumpty “great fall” postponed a tad longer) by low inflation, big liquidity ($2.0tn central bank buying), high EPS, and promise of US tax reform”, noting that the “monster rally in credit and equity markets began 18 months ago when best reason to be bullish was there was no reason to be bullish.”
    And with the VIX approaching all time lows as the S&P hits another daily high, the BofA strategist reiterates that his “Icarus Rally” price targets for Q4 remains 2630 in the S&P, 6666 on the Nasdaq, and the 10-year Treasury hitting 2.85%, as the rising dollar pushed the EURUSD down to 1.15. So what will prompt Q4 peak in the market? According to the BofA strategist, the catalyst will be a “Q4 “top” driven by tax reform, i.e. “peak Policy, a rise in MOVE index, and a peak RMB.
    As Hartnett details further, here are the three catalysts that could end the current period of record complacency. Tax reform = “peak policy” = buy rumor, sell fact…but too early to sell fact; tax reform = quicker Fed balance sheet reduction and less share buybacks if capex accelerates (since 2009 lows S&P equity market cap up $15.3tn, Fed’s balance sheet up $4.5tn, share buybacks up $3.5tn) Big jump in the MOVE index of US Treasury market volatility (i.e. “bond shock”) catalyst for cross-asset vol, but requires inflation to rise

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 29, 2017.

  • Apple Stock Slump Continues – Tests Key Technical Support

    Apple share price continues to tumble since it unveiled the iPhone 8 and X, following yesterday’s triple whammy of bad news.
    Back at it lowest since August 1st’s after-hours spike on earnings, AAPL is now testing the key 100-day moving average…
    And as goes AAPL, so goes the Nasdaq.. again

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 21, 2017.

  • Tech Stocks Are Tanking, Banks Panic-Bid

    After an exuberant overnight session – ignoring the slump in USDJPY and bond yields – the US cash session open appears to have triggered a wave of selling (especially in tech stocks)…
    Nasdaq is getting whacked at the open…
    Bank stocks are bid once again – back to pre-FOMC Minutes levels – as Tech rolls over…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 19, 2017.

  • Quad Witch ‘Pins’ S&P At Exactly 2500 Despite Dismal Data, Nukes, & Terrorism

    So to be clear, this week we had:
    Hurricane Irma crushes Florida North Korea test fires ICBMs across Japan (again) Economic data misses across the globe (China and US most notably) Terrorism in UK and France And the result – drum roll please – new record highs for The Dow, The S&P, and The Nasdaq… with The Dow’s best week of the year!!
    And in case you wondered what sent stocks soaring this week… The Fed (which is supposedly on the verge next week of starting to reduce the balance sheet) saw a $17.7bn spike in its balance sheet – the biggest weekly jump since Dec 2016

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.

  • How the Dow Jones Today Will Respond to Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal with Democrats

    The Dow Jones today is starting the day flat after U. S. President Donald Trump shocked Washington by making a surprise deal with Congressional Democrats on raising the debt ceiling. Dow Jones futures are down five points in premarket hours as Trump’s economic agenda is now in question and Florida braces for Hurricane Irma.
    Here are the numbers from Wednesday for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq:
    Index Previous Close Point Change Percentage Change Dow Jones 21,807.64 54.33 +0.25% S&P 500 2,465.54 7.69 +0.31% Nasdaq 6,393.31 17.74 +0.28%

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Garrett Baldwin ‘ September 7, 2017.