• Tag Archives Jim Rickards
  • 5 Things We’ve Learned Since China Entered the World Money Basket

    Beginning in October of last year, China’s renminbi was added to the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket known as the Special Drawing Rights, or SDR.
    The IMF, founded after Bretton Woods, established the SDR to be its own international reserve asset – what many have identified as world money.
    Prior to Chinese inclusion, the elite currency basket was calculated with the U. S dollar, Euro, Japanese yen and British pound sterling. While China joining the SDR may have been largely status-driven at the time, the yuan and the Chinese economy have become open to heightened concern.
    Significant worries over debt, wasted investments and threats of sweeping deflation left macroeconomists seeing a Chinese financial crisis on the horizon. Financial commentators ranging from hedge fund manager Kyle Bass to economist Jim Rickards highlight that the Chinese economy is on a dangerous course.
    So what does that mean for China and its inclusion with the SDR’s world money basket?
    Here’s five things we’ve learned from the Chinese entrance into world money:
    1. October 2017 is Crucial
    This October, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held. Thousands of lawmakers will gather in Beijing for the Congress. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does hold ultimate power, but certain influencers are beginning to rise.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 26, 2017.


  • Jim Rickards Exclusive: Dollar May Become ‘Local Currency of the U.S.’ Only

    Mike Gleason: It is my great privilege to be joined now by James Rickards. Mr. Rickards is editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and global capital. He’s also the author of several bestselling books including The Death of Money, Currency Wars, The New Case for Gold, and now his latest book The Road to Ruin.
    In addition to his achievements as a writer and author, Jim is also a portfolio manager, lawyer and renowned economic commentator having been interviewed by CNBC, the BBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and CNN just to name a few. And we’re also happy to have him back on the Money Metals Podcast.
    Jim, thanks for coming on with us again today. We really appreciate your time. How are you?
    Choose From 10-100oz Pure Silver Trusted Bullion Dealer – Buy Now! silvergoldbull.com Jim Rickards: I’m fine, Mike. Thanks. Great to be with you. Thanks for having me.
    Mike Gleason: Absolutely. Well first off, Jim, last week, the fed increased the fed funds rate by another quarter of a point as most of us expected, but during that meeting, we also heard Janet Yellen say she wants to normalize the Fed’s balance sheet, which means the Fed could be dumping about $50 billion in financial assets into the marketplace each month. Now you’ve been a longtime and outspoken critic of the fed and their policies over the years. So, what are your thoughts here, Jim? Do you believe they will actually follow through on this idea of selling off more than $4 trillion in bonds and other assets on the Fed’s books? And if so, what do you think the market reaction would be including the gold market?
    Jim Rickards: Well, I do think they’re going to follow through. Of course, it’s important to understand the mechanics of the Fed. They’re actually not going to sell any bonds. But they are going to reduce their balance sheet by probably two to two and a half trillion. So just to go through the history and the math and the actual mechanics there, so prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet was about $800 billion. As a result of QE1, QE2, QE3, and everything else the fed has done in the meantime, they got that balance sheet up to $4.5 trillion. By the way, if the Fed were a hedge fund, they’d be leveraged 115 to one. They look a really bad hedge fund. But that’s how much the Fed is leveraged, they have about 40 billion of equity, versus 4.5 trillion of assets. Mostly U. S. government securities of various kinds. So, they’re leveraged well over 100 to one.

    This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on June 23, 2017.


  • Why Is the Fed So Desperate to Raise Rates? Jim Rickards Explains (Video)

    The June Federal Reserve rate hike wasn’t a surprise. Most analysts expected Yellen and company to boost rates by 0.25 points. The only thing that was a little surprising was the hawkish tone the central bankers took at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed is hinting it will continue to push forward with interest rate normalization and begin to shrink its balance sheet. This raises an important question.
    Why?
    As we have pointed out, the data simply doesn’t support the hawkish stance taken by the Fed. Even some mainstream analysts have made this observation. So what gives? Why is the Federal Reserve so desperate to hike rates?


    This post was published at Schiffgold on JUNE 23, 2017.


  • James Rickards: Gold Will Start Heading Higher On ‘Dwindling’ Supply

    James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
    Gold was down after the Fed’s hike, but I expect it to start heading higher again. Too many powerful forces are driving it behind the scenes. Dwindling physical supply is a major one.
    ***
    On a recent visit to Switzerland, I was informed that secure logistics operators could not build new vaults fast enough and were taking over nuclear-bomb proof mountain bunkers from the Swiss Army to handle the demand for private storage.

    This post was published at Gold Core on June 19, 2017.


  • Is China manipulating the gold market?

    Hedge fund, PhD statistician claims gold market is ‘the most blatant case of manipulation’ PhD: ‘Statistically impossible unless there’s manipulation occurring’ Gold serves as political chips on the world’s financial stage. Price is being suppressed until China gets the gold that they need Gold will go higher when all central banks ‘confront the next global liquidity crisis’ ‘When that happens, physical gold may not be available at all.’ Jim Rickards: The Golden Conspiracy
    Is there gold price manipulation going on? Absolutely. There’s no question about it. That’s not just an opinion.
    There is statistical evidence piling up to make the case, in addition to anecdotal evidence and forensic evidence. The evidence is very clear, in fact.
    These are the opening lines of Jim Rickards’ piece ‘The Golden Conspiracy’, an op-ed that may surprise even the most seasoned followers of gold markets.
    Gold and silver price manipulation is not a new topic to regular readers. For years the idea that precious metals markets are subject to more than just free market forces has been dismissed by the mainstream. Many have referred to gold and silver manipulation as topic fodder for the conspiracy and deep web forums. This is despite evidence to the contrary.

    This post was published at Gold Core on May 31, 2017.


  • The Golden Conspiracy

    Authored by Jim Rickards via The Daily Reckoning blog,
    Is there gold price manipulation going on? Absolutely. There’s no question about it. That’s not just an opinion.
    There is statistical evidence piling up to make the case, in addition to anecdotal evidence and forensic evidence. The evidence is very clear, in fact.
    I’ve spoken to members of Congress. I’ve spoken to people in the intelligence community, in the defense community, very senior people at the IMF. I don’t believe in making strong claims without strong evidence, and the evidence is all there.
    spoke to a PhD statistician who works for one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. I can’t mention the fund’s name but it’s a household name. You’ve probably heard of it. He looked at COMEX (the primary market for gold) opening prices and COMEX closing prices for a 10-year period. He was dumbfounded.
    He said it was is the most blatant case of manipulation he’d ever seen. He said if you went into the aftermarket, bought after the close and sold before the opening every day, you would make risk-free profits.
    He said statistically that’s impossible unless there’s manipulation occurring.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 27, 2017.


  • Jim Rickards: The Golden Conspiracy

    Is there gold price manipulation going on? Absolutely. There’s no question about it. That’s not just an opinion.
    There is statistical evidence piling up to make the case, in addition to anecdotal evidence and forensic evidence. The evidence is very clear, in fact.
    I’ve spoken to members of Congress. I’ve spoken to people in the intelligence community, in the defense community, very senior people at the IMF. I don’t believe in making strong claims without strong evidence, and the evidence is all there.
    I spoke to a PhD statistician who works for one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. I can’t mention the fund’s name but it’s a household name. You’ve probably heard of it. He looked at COMEX (the primary market for gold) opening prices and COMEX closing prices for a 10-year period. He was dumbfounded.
    He said it was is the most blatant case of manipulation he’d ever seen. He said if you went into the aftermarket, bought after the close and sold before the opening every day, you would make risk-free profits. He said statistically that’s impossible unless there’s manipulation occurring.

    This post was published at Daily Reckoning


  • Jim Rickards: Don’t Watch the Circus in D.C., the Real News Is Gold

    Over the last few weeks, the media has fixated on whether or not firing FBI director James Comey and allegations of Russian collusion will turn into Donald Trump’s Watergate. But in a recent column, economic analyst Jim Rickards said that really isn’t the most significant thing that’s happened.
    While everyone is focused on the Washington circus this week, they’re missing what could be the real news – gold.’
    On May 10, the media scarcely noticed when gold launched a decisive turnaround from its most recent dip. But that’s not the big news. We find it in a pattern that’s been establishing itself since the end of last year. As Rickards notes, since mid-December, we’ve seen the price of gold hit higher highs and higher lows.
    Every retreat finds a footing higher than the one before and each new high reaches new, higher ground.’
    Starting with the interim low of $1,128 on Dec. 15, we can see the pattern establishing itself. Since then, gold has hit the following highs before retreating,

    This post was published at Schiffgold on MAY 23, 2017.


  • James Rickards: Gold’s ‘Decisive Turn Around’ – ‘Next Stop Is $1,300 Or Higher’

    James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
    But the most important development this week may be the one you never heard about on the news or the internet.
    On May 10, gold launched a decisive turnaround from its most recent decline.
    This kept intact the pattern I’ve been writing about for weeks of ‘higher highs, and higher lows’ as every retreat finds a footing higher than the one before and each new high reaches new, higher ground.

    This post was published at Gold Core on May 22, 2017.


  • Rickards: Trump Will Not Be Impeached

    Above the initials R. B. we are dealt with as follows:
    ‘You lying scumbags! You won’t get away with it. Real Americans are behind Trump and can see the truth. One day we will find you! Personally!’
    (Perhaps it’s time to move?)
    ‘Go [fornicate] yourself,’ thunders another reader, demanding of us the anatomically impossible – and thumbing a nose at our Presbyterian standard.
    A third consigns our poor soul to a signally abject fate: ‘Go to hell!’
    We reckoned yesterday about the possible impeachment of President Trump.
    We apparently gave some readers the impression we’re down on all fours with it… that we somehow have it in for Mr. Trump.
    Yet we plead innocent on every count. And we go to the gallows under protest.
    We have no heat against Trump.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Brian Maher ‘ May 18, 2017.


  • Cyber Wars Could Crash Markets and Threat To Humanity – Rickards and Buffett

    Cyber wars are a bigger threat to humanity than nuclear weapons, the world’s richest and most famous investor Warren Buffett, presciently warned a few days ago.
    ‘I do think that’s the number one problem with mankind,’ Warren Buffett warned during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting on May 6th.
    ‘I’m very pessimistic on weapons of mass destruction generally although I don’t think that nuclear probably is quite as likely as either primarily biological and maybe cyber,’ Buffett said during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ meeting. Unlike most of Buffett’s pronouncements, this clear and very strong warning was not reported widely.
    ‘I don’t know that much about cyber, but I do think that’s the number one problem with mankind’ said Buffett as reported by Business Insider UK.
    Last year, Buffett told CNBC – cyber, nuclear, biological and chemical attacks – posed a major threat to the economic well-being of Berkshire shareholders.
    Echoing Buffett’s cyber concerns, today one of the world’s leading experts on currency wars, financial warfare, cyber terrorism and cyber war, James Rickards has again warned that cyber attacks may have already compromised the U. S. national security and could turn a ‘bad day on Wall Street into a full blown crash’.

    This post was published at Gold Core on May 16, 2017.


  • Rickards: Trump Tax Plan is a ‘Sideshow’

    Jim Rickards joined Sky News Australia while speaking from New York City he delved into the expectations of the Trump tax plan proposals, what the political landscape shows the general public and how the market could react.
    When asked about his read on the proposed ‘largest tax reform in U. S history’ Rickards did not hold back. ‘In a carnival or circus you used to have something called a side show. It would have funny acts with sword swallowers, flame swallowers or living mermaids. I view this whole thing as a side show. I don’t think that analysts should take it very literally. I think it is very difficult for viewers outside of the United States to understand. Most democratically elected parliamentary systems operate under where when the Prime Minister directs something, if they have a working majority, it becomes the law. While there is usually some debate, the leadership typically gets what they want.’


    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 27, 2017.


  • Rickards: We Are Positioned for Systemic Crisis

    Jim Rickards joined Keith McCullough on HedgeyeTV to discuss the economy, his book Death of the Dollar and the systemic crisis risk in the market. Jim Rickards candidate interview on HedgeyeTV is truly a no-punches held back session of economic focus and uncovers what to expect in the future for finance.
    When Keith McCullough jumped into the question and answer segment, he began by asking about Rickards recent conversation with former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Rickards explained, ‘My question to him was, if there was an economic crisis tomorrow – what would the policy response be? Would the government simply go up to eight or twelve trillion on the balance sheets for the Federal Reserve? Would they turn to the International Monetary Fund and the special drawing rights (SDR)? The IMF has a clean balance sheet, they’re leveraged three to one and could print a couple trillion SDR’s. They could just flood the market with those. Geithner surprised me and said neither. That really surprised me coming from someone that worked at the IMF and is one of the few people that truly understands the SDR system.’


    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 24, 2017.


  • Jim Rickards: Implementing Trump’s Economic Plan is ‘Sheer Fantasy’

    Is the so-called Trump Trade about to unravel? Economic analyst Jim Rickards thinks so. The Trump Trade rests on the idea that the president’s proposed policies of lower taxes, infrastructure spending, Obamacare repeal, and decreasing government regulations will juice the economy. As a result, corporate earnings will increase and the stock market will rise with them.

    Indeed, with Trump’s election, the stock market took off on a bull run. Between Election Day and March 1, the Dow gained 15%, moving from 18,332.74 to 21,115.55. Some have dubbed it the ‘Trump Bump.’
    Ironically, on the campaign trail, Trump called the stock market a ‘big, fat, ugly bubble.’ He was right. Last spring, Yahoo Finance reported on analysis showing that 93% of the entire stock market move since 2008 was caused by Federal Reserve policy. Nothing has fundamentally changed. But once Trump took office, he immediately started taking credit for the stock market rally. Now we’re seeing signs that the Trump Bump may have – well – hit a bump.
    Stocks fell precipitously in late March, and some analysts see it as a sign the Trump Trade is unwinding. The Dow Jones lost 2% in March. It’s lost another 100 points since the beginning of April. Why?
    Part of it has to do with increasing geopolitical uncertainty. But it also seems the bloom is beginning to fall off the rose, and many have realized the Trump economic plan may never come to pass. There were hints of impatience even back in February when the market was hitting its peak.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on APRIL 12, 2017.


  • Jim Rickards: The Numbers Impacting the Fed

    Jim Rickards joined Stephen Guilfoyle on The Street to discuss his latest take on the numbers that will move the Fed in through its decision making process. During the conversation Jim Rickards and Mr. Guilfoyle, also known as ‘Sarge’ on Wall Street, cover how the Federal Reserve will continue to push rates higher and potentially trigger a recession.
    To begin the discussion Sarge prompted Rickards’ on his read regarding the trajectory of monetary policy in the United States. Rickards noted, ‘I see the Federal Reserve raising rates in June – the market is getting there, they’re not quite ready yet though. The Fed is on track to raise rates four times a year until 2019 in order to get the Federal funds rate at 3.25%. The expectation is rate hikes in March, June, September, December in a sequence until 2019.’
    ‘There are only three reasons that the Fed might his a ‘pause button.’ There are only three reasons they would do so. First, if job creation falls below 75 thousand per month, which is a pretty low hurdle. Second, if the stock market fell out of bed and I don’t mean 5%. If the Dow was to fall more than 2000% that would cause the Fed to pause. The third thing would be disinflation. Inflation is currently moving toward the Fed’s goal but if it started to move the over way [you could see the central bank take a pause]. If you don’t see those things then expect the Fed to raise four times a year.’

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 10, 2017.


  • Jim Rickards: Safe Havens During the Financial Warfare Era

    Jim Rickards joined up with Stephen Guilfoyle, also known as ‘Sarge’ at The Street, to discuss his book The Death of Money and how investors can find a safe haven for their money in this modern era of financial warfare. The discussion hits at Rickards’ area of expertise as a currency wars analyst and covers what to expect from geopolitical interests in Russia, North Korea and beyond.
    Jim Rickards highlights that he was recently giving a seminar to the U. S Army War College and remarks that what he informed them of was that ‘there has really been some economic aspect to warfare but it now completely non-kinetic. It can be decisive and when you combine financial warfare with the emerging cyber techniques you get into cyber financial warfare.’
    ‘In one of the case studies I am analyzing is where Russia has invaded Crimea. We responded with economic sanctions. President Obama indicated that he was not going to war but would apply economic sanctions. However, Russian President Putin thinks of them as an act of war. When you degrade the capability of your adversary through economic means, that’s an act of war. They may respond in a ‘war-like’ way.’

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 7, 2017.


  • James Rickards, ‘Dr. Tail Risk,’ Takes Us on a Tour of ‘The Road to Ruin‘

    Meet James Rickards, ‘Dr. Tail Risk.’
    Some people loathe Jim Rickards. Some adore him, giving him a large cult following.
    Rickards was the general counsel of Long-Term Capital Management, a notorious precursor to the great financial panics of our era.
    Rickards is certain that another, bigger, world financial crisis is imminent.
    Rickards reports that he has been right in the past. He, also, has frequently been wrong … at least about its imminence.

    This post was published at Forbes


  • Jim Rickards: Debt, The Death of Money and Gold

    Jim Rickards joined Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog to discuss his book The Death of Money and the debt ceiling issues facing Trump and Congress. During the interview the two discuss everything from what to expect from Federal Reserve policy to gold prices in the coming months and years.
    To start out the interview Jim Rickards was asked on the national debt where he contends, ‘The debt ceiling is very important. The United States runs budget deficits year after year. In the last 50 years we have only had minimal surplus years under Nixon and Clinton. We currently have $20 trillion of debt. The Treasury cannot just borrow however much they want. The U. S Congress limits the Department of the Treasury’s ability to borrow, what is called the debt ceiling. When the Treasury wants to borrow more, you have to raise the ceiling ceiling by the legislative process – an act of Congress.’
    ‘Officially the existing debt ceiling ran out on March 15 and the Treasury cannot borrow any more money. Right now the Treasury is within tax season so it has positive cash flow. They have more in than going out and will not need to borrow at the exact moment. That is strictly temporary and a function of tax season in. Once we get through April, the shoe is on the other foot.’
    ‘They’re going to hit a ‘hard ceiling’ probably by August, if not sooner. Then the issue becomes whether Congress gives the Treasury the authority to borrow more money. The problem is when passing a debt ceiling bill, the ‘strings attached’ deals that come with them. You gain some members in doing deals and lose others. We saw that with the health fiasco and the repeal of Obamacare failed not because of Democrats but because of Republicans who could not agree amongst themselves.’

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on April 3, 2017.