Dutch Central Bank Warns Of Market Calm Before The Storm:

With one foot out of the door of Germany’s finance ministry, the former head of the German economy, Wolfgang Schuble, 75, delivered a fire and brimstone warning over the weekend, telling the FT in an interview that there was a danger of “new bubbles” forming due to the trillions of dollars that central banks have pumped into markets. Schuble also warned of risks to stability in the eurozone, particularly those posed by bank balance sheets burdened by the post-crisis legacy of non-performing loans, something we warned about since 2012, and an issue which remains largely unresolved.
Taking a broad swipe at the current financial regime – which he helped design – Schauble warned that the world was in danger of ‘encouraging new bubbles to form’.
“Economists all over the world are concerned about the increased risks arising from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt. I myself am concerned about this, too,” he said echoing the concern voiced just one day earlier by IMF head Christine Lagarde, who said the world was enjoying its best growth spurt since the start of the decade, but warned of ‘threats on the horizon’ from ‘high levels of debt in many countries to rapid credit expansion in China, to excessive risk-taking in financial markets’.
And while Schauble’s dramatic warning was not surprising – prominent economists have a habit of telling the truth once their tenure is over, and once they start selling books warning about all the consequences of policies they helped adopt – one day later a more surprising, and just as urgent warning was delivered by the Dutch central bank, DNB, which on Monday said that ultra-loose monetary policy in the euro zone has run its course, and excessive risks seem to be building up in financial markets making the financial sector vulnerable to a sudden correction.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 9, 2017.

Kyle Bass Sounds Off On “Worthless” Puerto Rican Debt, The Crypto “Gold Rush”, And Guns

With the dollar’s recent post-Fed bout of appreciation providing some much-needed relief for Haymarket Capital’s P&L, its founder Kyle Bass sat for an interview on Friday with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker. During the 20 minute discussion, Bass expounded on the importance of holding gold, his cautiously optimistic view on digital currencies, the misguided notion that holders of Puerto Rican debt will someday be made whole – oh, and Bass’s next big call: Long Greece – particularly the stocks and debt of Greek banks.
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A few weeks ago, Bloomberg view published a Bass-penned editorial in which the hedge fund founder and CIO called on the IMF to stop bullying Greece – publicizing the fact that he is now effectively long Greece. Greek government bonds have performed reasonably well so far this year: They’re up about 16%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 7, 2017.

Goldman Shuns JPMorgan’s Dimon – Plans Bitcoin Trading Operation

GOLDMAN SACHS SAID TO WEIGH BITCOIN TRADING OPERATION: WSJ
wait what… pic.twitter.com/WKyrfDIHca
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2017

While JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he “would fire” any employee found trading Bitcoin, Goldman Sachs’ leadership is embracing reality as WSJ reports the bank is weighing a new trading operation dedicated to bitcoin and other digital currencies.
On the heels of IMF Chief Christine Lagarde’s comments that:
“… the technology itself can replace national monies, conventional financial intermediation, and even puts a question mark on the fractional banking model we know today… So I think it may not be wise to dismiss virtual currencies.”
Bitcoin’s price has continued higher – erasing the losses from China and Jamie Dimon’s comments…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 2, 2017.

28/7/17: Climbing the Deficit Mountains: Advanced Economies in the Age of Austerity

Just a stat: between 2001-2006 period, cumulative Government deficits across the Advanced Economies rose by SUD 5.135 trillion. Over the subsequent 6 years period (2007-2012) the same deficits clocked up USD 14.299 trillion and over the period 2013-2018 (using IMF forecasts for 2017 and 2018), the cumulated deficits will add up to USD 8.197 trillion. On an average annual basis, deficits across the Advanced Economies run at an annual rate of USD0.86 trillion over 2001-2006, USD 2.375 trillion over 2007-2012 and USD 1.385 trillion over 2013-2017 (excluding forecast year of 2018).

This post was published at True Economics on Thursday, September 28, 2017.

Algeria Officially Launches Helicopter Money Amid Sliding Oil Revenue, Budget Crisis

One year ago, the imminent arrival of helicopter money among endless discussions of pervasive lowflation was all the rage within high-finance policy circles. Then, everything changed as if on a dime, and in recent months the dominant topic has been global coordinated tightening – and in some cases even revisions to central bank mandates and the lowering of inflation targets – perhaps as a result of central banks’ realization that monetizing debt by central banks leads to bad outcomes, not to mention global asset bubbles.
But not everywhere.
On Sunday, Algeria’s prime minister unveiled a plan to plug the country’s budget deficit as the the OPEC member state looks to offset lower oil revenue by directly borrowing from the central bank, while avoiding international debt markets. In other words, direct monetization of debt, which bypasses commercial banks as a monetary intermediate, and is better known as “helicopter money.”
According to Bloomberg, the five-year plan presented by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia aims to balance the budget by 2022, and reverse a deficit that ballooned with the plunge in global crude prices, which also cut foreign reserves by nearly half.
“If we turn to external debt, as the IMF suggests, we will need to borrow $20 billion a year to repay the deficit and within four years we will be unable to repay the debt,” Ouyahia said. ‘This is what made the government look at non-traditional financing.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 17, 2017.

Trump Tower Meeting & Half Truths – Another Untold Story

Bloomberg News is reporting that there is an ongoing criminal investigation into a client of the Russian lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, who meet at Trump Tower with Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser, and Paul Manafort. The attorney Veselnitskaya also had a client with and undisclosed a U. S. criminal investigation into possible Russian money laundering, which began back in 2013 but went nowhere. The statute of limitations has run out by now, which is 5 years.
TheMoney laundering was that involving Hermitage Capital, which Edmond Safra was the main share holder. That was the company Safra and his Republic National Bank was trying to get me to invest in but I declined.
This involved the attempted takeover of Russia, Yeltsin was shown how to steal $7 billion from the IMF loans and wired the money to Geneva. Republic National Bank steered the wire through Bank of NY and then ran to the Feds to report Bank of NY did a $7 billionMoney laundering. The Feds rushed in and quickly found themselves trapped. I had a meeting with the prosecutors on that whole mess.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 16, 2017.

2,000 Years Of Economic History (In One Chart)

Long before the invention of modern day maps or gunpowder, the planet’s major powers were already duking it out for economic and geopolitical supremacy.
Today’s chart tells that story in the simplest terms possible. As Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes, by showing the changing share of the global economy for each country from 1 AD until now, it compares economic productivity over a mind-boggling time period.
Originally published in a research letter by Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan, we’ve updated it based on the most recent data and projections from the IMF. If you like, you can still find the original chart (which goes to 2008) at The Atlantic. It’s also worth noting that the original source for all the data up until 2008 is from the late Angus Maddison, a famous economic historian that published estimates on population, GDP, and other figures going back to Roman times.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 11, 2017.

“Dear President Trump: America Is In For A Rude Awakening In January”

Dear President Trump,
Over the last couple of years I’ve been all over TV… from Fox News to CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg. I’ve been telling our fellow Americans that the financial global elite was planning to issue their own globalist currency called special drawing rights, or SDRs.
And that those elites would use this new currency to replace the U. S. dollar as the global reserve currency.
I’ve even written about this extensively in my best-selling books The Road to Ruin and The New Case for Gold.
I’m sure some people in the mainstream media thought I was out of line – but the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have both confirmed this plan to replace the U. S. dollar is real. I’ve made this warning many times, but it seems to be falling on deaf ears. That’s why I’m writing directly to you.
Here’s the proof that the U. S. dollar is under attack, right in front of our eyes:
The UN said we need ‘a new global reserve system… that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency.’
And the IMF admitted they want to make ‘the special drawing right (SDR) the principal reserve asset in the [International Monetary System].’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 10, 2017.

So When Will China’s Debt Bubble Finally Blow Up?

The upside is fake stability. The downside is too ugly to contemplate.
Corporate debt in China has soared to $18 trillion, or 169% of GDP, the largest pile of corporate debt in the world, according to the worried Bank for International Settlements. The OECD has warned about it earlier this year. The New York Fed warned about this debt boom in February and that it could lead to a ‘financial crisis,’ but that authorities have many tools to control it.
The IMF regularly warns about China’s corporate debt, broken-record-like, and did so again a few days ago, lambasting the authorities for their reluctance to tamp down on the growth of debt. The ‘current trajectory,’ it said, ‘could eventually lead to a sharp adjustment.’
The Chinese authorities – the government and the central bank, supported by the state-owned megabanks – have allowed some bonds to default, rather than bail them out, to make some kind of theoretical point, and they have been working furiously on a balancing act, tamping down on the credit growth that fuels the economy and simultaneously stimulating the economy with more credit to keep the debt bubble from imploding. A misstep could create a global mess.
‘Everyone knows there’s a credit problem in China, but I find that people often forget about the scale; it’s important in global terms,’ Charlene Chu told the Financial Times. Back in 2011, when she was still a China banking analyst at Fitch Ratings, she went out on a limb with her radical estimates that there was much more debt than disclosed by the central bank, particularly in the shadow banking system, that banks were concealing risky loans in off-balance-sheet vehicles, and that this soaring opaque debt could have nasty consequences. Her outlandish views at the time have since then become the consensus.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Aug 17, 2017.

China’s July Leverage Data Comes in Hot, Drawing Rebuke From IMF

It is often difficult to ascertain the actual level of credit and liquidity in China, as the ‘shadow banking’ segment is near $8.5 trillion strong. But China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) data, released Tuesday, attempts to do just that. China’s Leverage data came in hotter than anticipated, a Bernstein report noted. While the number decreased, it was due, in part, to a drop in shadow bank lending. But China’s Leverage reduction last month is not enough to satisfy the International Monetary Fund, which warned China is on a ‘dangerous trajectory,’ as debt is being used to engineer growth to an unhealthy degree, a charge China denies.
China’s Leverage TSF number hotter than anticipated, raising concern at the IMF
Amid deleveraging impacting corporates, state-owned enterprises and individuals, China was anticipated to have seen a July drop in TSF to nearly 1,000 billion yuan. That number came in at 1,220 billion yuan, down 32% on a month over month basis, as Chinese loan data in July is typically weaker than June. The problem for certain analysts is the loan data was 22% above consensus estimates, pointing to a growing leverage problem.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/16/2017.

IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro and apologises for the immolation of Greece

The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.
This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions.
It describes a ‘culture of complacency’, prone to ‘superficial and mechanistic’ analysis, and traces a shocking breakdown in the governance of the IMF, leaving it unclear who is ultimately in charge of this extremely powerful organisation.
The report by the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) goes above the head of the managing director, Christine Lagarde. It answers solely to the board of executive directors, and those from Asia and Latin America are clearly incensed at the way European Union insiders used the fund to rescue their own rich currency union and banking system.
The three main bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland were unprecedented in scale and character. The trio were each allowed to borrow over 2,000pc of their allocated quota – more than three times the normal limit – and accounted for 80pc of all lending by the fund between 2011 and 2014.

This post was published at The Telegraph

A Weaker US Economy Could Result in Strong Gold Rally

One possible effect of the ‘America First’ approach the Trump Administration vowed to take was a weaker US dollar. Shortly after we wrote about this earlier this year, the dollar index began a steady march lower, retreating 7% in just five months, from 102 in March to its current level of 95.
Not surprisingly, gold has risen almost 10% in US dollar terms during this time.
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As recently as six months ago, many investors expected the dollar to continue its rally of the past few years based on stronger economic growth, via Trump’s agenda items, and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
However, despite high expectations, so far Trump’s efforts to overhaul healthcare and reform taxes have fallen flat and have been short on substance. In addition, the continued investigation of Trump’s Russia ties has caused more investors to grow skeptical about the chances for meaningful reform, beyond unilateral executive action.
In a surprise move, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just slashed its GDP growth forecast for the United States from 2.3% to 2.1%. It also cut its 2018 forecast from 2.5% to 2.1%. This type of revision hasn’t been seen anywhere in the world except for Brazil and South Africa, two deeply troubled economies.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on July 28, 2017.

Goldman’s Clients Are Confused About Inflation: Here’s Why

In his latest weekly kickstart, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin (who has maintained his year end S&P price target of 2,400 of -3% from current levels), says that the one topic most confusing (and important) to Goldman’s clients in the past week, was what happens to inflation next: “the US inflation outlook and its equity investment implications were key topics of discussion during recent visits with clients in Boston, Chicago, and New York. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data released [on Friday] showed a year/year inflation rate of 1.5% in 2Q. Wednesday’s Fed statement acknowledged that inflation was running ‘below’ its 2% target, a revision from the ‘somewhat below’ description used previously.”
Kostin points out that while fixed income managers have always had to take a view on inflation, now that the Fed’s “reaction function”, to use an IMF-ism, is entirely driven by concurrent and future inflation expectations, and as a result “equity investors must also take a stand and position portfolios accordingly. The anticipated path of inflation is an important determinant of the trajectory of Fed policy tightening. Bond yields will be affected in turn via expectations of future hikes and the term premium, and stock prices by extension will be influenced through the equity risk premium.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 30, 2017.

IMF cuts 2017 growth forecasts for U.K. and U.S.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the U.K. economy this year after a weak performance in the first three months of 2017.
In its first downgrade for the UK since the E.U. referendum in June last year, the IMF said it expected the British economy to expand by 1.7% this year, 0.3 points lower than when it last made predictions in April.
The Fund raised its forecasts for the U.K. after the Brexit vote as a result of the much stronger than envisaged activity in the second half of 2016. In October 2016, it pencilled in growth of 1.1% for 2017, raising this forecast to 1.5% in January this year and to 2% in April.
Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor, pointed to a marked change in early 2017. He said the U.K.’s growth forecast had been lowered based on its ‘tepid performance’ so far this year, adding: ‘The ultimate impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom remains unclear.’
The IMF left its growth forecast for the U.K. in 2018 unchanged at 1.5% but said one key risk facing the global economy was that the Brexit talks would end in failure.

This post was published at The Guardian

The Elites Are Jumping Ship As The Financial Collapse Draws Near

It’s easy to think of the political and financial elites who run our world as lofty and all powerful. They command dangerous governments that can wield devastating weapons, central banks that treat our economy like a rigged casino, media conglomerates that pacify the minds of the public, and unbelievably wealthy corporations that have concentrated wealth to an unprecedented degree.
However, they’re certainly not invincible, and the systems of control that they’ve created are rapidly diminishing. Most notably, they seem all to aware of the fact that the global economy is headed for a crash. On the rare occasion where you can catch one of the elites in a moment of candor, they’ll tell you that the party is almost over.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is a bona fide member of the global power elite (a former deputy director of the IMF and president of the Harvard Management Co.). Yet he writes in a fairly accessible style on the popular Bloomberg website. When El-Erian talks, we should all listen.
In a recent article he raises serious doubts about the sustainability of the bull market in stocks because of reduced liquidity resulting from simultaneous policy tightening by the Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England.

This post was published at shtfplan on July 27th, 2017.

The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin

This week the International Monetary Fund shocked some economic analysts with an announcement that America was “no longer first in the world” as a major economic growth engine. This stinging assertion falls exactly in line with the narrative out of the latest G20 summit; that the U. S. is fading away leaving the door open for countries like Germany and China to join forces and fill the power void. I wrote about this rising relationship between these two nations as well as the ongoing controlled demolition of America’s economy in my article ‘The New World Order Will Begin With Germany And China’.
I find it interesting that the IMF is once again taking the lead on perpetuating the image of a failing U. S., just as they often push for the concept of a single global currency system to replace the dollar as the world reserve. The most common faulty counter-argument I run into when outlining the globalist agenda to supplant the dollar with the Special Drawing Rights basket system is that “the IMF is a U. S. government controlled organization that would never undermine U. S. authority.” Obviously, the people who make this argument have been thoroughly duped.
The IMF is constantly and actively undermining America’s economic position, because the IMF is NOT an American controlled organization; its loyalty is to globalism as an ideology as well as the international financiers that dominate central banking. America’s supposed “veto power” within the IMF is incidental and meaningless – it has not stopped the IMF from chasing the replacement of the the dollar structure and forming the fiscal ties that stand as the root of what they sometimes call the “global economic reset.”

This post was published at Alt-Market on Thursday, 27 July 2017.

The Elites Are Privately Warning About A Crash “Russia Hack” Evidence

Many everyday citizens assume powerful global financial elites operate behind closed doors in secret conclaves, like the scene of a Spectre board meeting in the recent James Bond film.
Actually, the opposite is true. Most of what the power elite does is hidden in plain sight in speeches, seminars, webcasts and technical papers. These are readily available from institutional websites and media channels.
It’s true that private meetings occur on the sidelines of Davos, the IMF annual meeting and G-20 summits of the kind just concluded. But the results of even those secret meetings are typically announced or leaked or can be reasonably inferred based on subsequent policy coordination.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 25, 2017.

Greece Approved for $1.8 Billion Conditional Loan From IMF

The International Monetary Fund agreed to a new conditional bailout for Greece, ending two years of speculation on whether it would join in another rescue and giving the seal of approval demanded by many of the country’s euro-area creditors.
The Washington-based fund said Thursday its executive board approved ‘in principle’ a new loan worth as much as $1.8 billion. The disbursement of funds is contingent on euro-zone countries providing debt relief to Greece.
‘As we have said many times, even with full program implementation, Greece will not be able to restore debt sustainability and needs further debt relief from its European partners,’ IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a statement. ‘A debt strategy anchored in more realistic assumptions needs to be agreed. I expect a plan to restore debt sustainability to be agreed soon between Greece and its European partners.’
IMF officials estimate that, even if Greece carries out promised reforms, the nation’s debt will reach about 150 percent of gross domestic product by 2030, and become ‘explosive’ beyond that point. European creditors could bring the debt under control by extending grace periods, lengthening the maturity of the debt or deferring interest payments, the IMF said in a report accompanying the announcement.

This post was published at bloomberg