North Korean Propaganda On Trump: ‘Garbage That Reeks Of Gunpowder To Ignite War’

After North Koreans heard from their state-run media (propaganda) that Donald Trump had said some harsh things about life in the isolated nation, they fired back. And many believe Trump will ‘ignite a war’ between the United States and their own country.
In a speech on Wednesday, President Trump called the isolated communist country ‘a hell that no person deserves.’
But the rebuttal from North Koreans was equally harsh. One woman, who CNN spoke to on the streets of Pyongyang called Trump’s assertion ‘foolish,’ ‘absurd,’ and another word CNN claims they cannot print. ‘The reality here is very different. We’re leading a happy life,’ Ri Yong Hui, a housewife in Pyongyang, told CNN.
North Korean state media reported that Trump had spoken on Thursday, but did not include concrete details of his speech, in which the President slammed Pyongyang’s human rights abuses.

This post was published at shtfplan on November 9th, 2017.

Psychological Warfare in the Precious Metals Markets

For almost a year now the PM stock indexes have been building out a triangle trading range that has yet to be determined if it is going to be a consolidation pattern or a reversal pattern. With big patterns one can lose sight of what is really there, as the longer a trading range develops the more trendlines one puts on a chart, and the more confusing things become.
Tonight I would like to show you, from a Chartology perspective, what the basic patterns are, from the short term to the longer term. The bigger a trading range the more chart patterns can develop before we see the final product. Sometimes it’s totally different from the early stages of the trading range. It’s important to clear ones mind of all the preconceived notions of what they think is happening to just what the charts are suggesting. It’s a hard thing for most investors to do because of all the things we read each and everyday which works on our subconscious. More than anything else we are playing a game of psychological warfare.
Lets start by looking at a short term daily chart for the HUI which is showing the H&S top we’ve been following since early October. The H&S top is pretty symmetrical and the breakout below the neckline was accompanied by a breakout gap. This is what we know to be true at this point in time. If the price action can trade back above the neckline then this scenario will be thrown out the window, but until that time the H&S top is valid. Also when the neckline gave way so did the 200 day moving average.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 November 2017.

Precious Metals Monthly Charts

The precious metals sector started September with a bang. Gold, which had already eclipsed $1300/oz, pushed to $1360/oz while Silver broke its downtrend line (from its late 2012 and 2016 peaks). Unfortunately, precious metals would soon reverse course and more. Gold ended September down nearly 3% and below $1300/oz. Silver lost 5% and its breakout. The gold mining indices (GDX, GDXJ, HUI) lost 7% to 8%. The monthly charts argue the major breakout from multi-year bottoming patterns will have to wait until 2018 at the soonest.
Gold’s bearish September reversal occurred at multi-year resistance. On a chart showing daily or weekly closing prices, Gold’s highest close in September occurred at the resistance line connecting its early 2014 and 2016 highs. In addition, Gold opened near $1330 (critical monthly and quarterly resistance), traded above it but then closed well below it. While it is difficult to see, Silver opened very close to key resistance at $17.80, traded up to $18.29 (near major monthly resistance) but closed the month well below $17.00. Silver failed in a resistance area that has been very important (note the arrows) for the past 10 years. Gold failed at a level that has been important since 2014.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 October 2017.

Major Gold-Stock Breakouts

The gold stocks are off to the races again, with big gains mounting. They just staged major breakouts, shattering a vexing consolidation that had trapped them for an entire year. Such momentum early in gold’s strong season is a very-bullish portent. As higher prices improve both technicals and sentiment, buying begets more buying. With gold-stock prices still quite low in secular terms, their upside remains huge.
Gold stocks are a small contrarian sector without a wide following. So their latest surge has surprised many investors and speculators. But it shouldn’t have. In the markets knowledge is profits, so staying informed about gold stocks’ fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment is crucial. The traders who did their homework this summer and bought in low when few others were willing are now sitting on fat unrealized gains.
Nearly every summer like clockwork, gold stocks slump to a summer-doldrums low. Gold miners’ profits and hence ultimately stock prices are driven by prevailing gold prices. And gold investment demand has always tended to slump seasonally in summers. On July 7th, the flagship HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index, which is closely mirrored by the leading GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, hit a demoralizing low of 178.9.
The gold-stock sector was down 1.9% YTD in a year where gold had rallied 5.4% over that span. That very day, I published an essay titled Gold Stocks’ Summer Bottom. I explained why summer gold-stock weakness is a great buying opportunity, concluding ‘So smart contrarians willing to fight the herd to deploy when it’s unpopular are subsequently richly rewarded when gold stocks’ seasonal rallies march much higher.’

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on September 8, 2017.

Gold: The Anatomy of the Bottoming Process

Tonight I would like to show you some short and long term charts for some of the PM stock indexes. In the very short term they have had a good run and are getting overbought and need to work off some of the bullishness. This is perfectly normal and should be expected. What we need to focus in on now is where we should look for support to keep the uptrend intact.
This first chart is a daily look at the HUI which shows us a one year support and resistance line. Two weeks ago already, the HUI broke above that very important S&R line telling us the bulls were in charge after the bears held resistance keeping the bull in check. Now we should look for that S&R line to reverse its role to what had been resistance, to now support. Critical support comes in around the 207 area which would be the backtest. The green circle shows where the 20 day ema crossed above the 50 day ema back in August for a buy signal.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Thursday, 7 September 2017.

Is The Precious Metals Sector Set-Up For A Big Run?

I had not noticed until I looked mid-day today (Thursday, Aug 24th) and saw that the HUI index was above 200. It ended up closing just above 200. I want to see it hold above 200 dma and move higher from there before I get excited. But the chart has become mildly bullish. GDX, which is a larger representation of the large-cap mining stocks, looks even more bullish that the HUI:

I’m not big advocate of using chart ‘technicals’ to forecast the next move in any market, but many traders, hedge funds and investors use them and they can become ‘self-fulfilling prophecies.’ You can see that GDX (same with HUI and GDXJ) has been trending sideways since early February in a pattern of rrowing volatility. Chartists look at this as a pattern that predicts a big move in either direction. I’ve drawn in a white downtrend line through which the GDX appears to have climbed over. It’s also now above its 50/200 dma’s (yellow and red lines, respectively). I’m not ready to declare a ‘break-out’ yet, but I’m feeling optimistic going into the eastern hemisphere’s biggest seasonal period for accumulating physical gold.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 27, 2017.

Should You Use Leverage With Precious Metals And Mining Stocks?

While I will maintain, until proven wrong by the test of time, that Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are nothing more than a temporary fad, investing with a long term outlook (20-30 years) gives the investor the best probability of generating life-style changing wealth.
William Powers, of MiningStockEducation.com, invited onto his podcast to discuss using leverage in precious metals and mining stock investing. We discuss greed/fear, using margin with mining stocks, volatility, options, futures and the leveraged ETFs.
The problem for most investors, and the reason many have not made a lot of money – or might have lost money – in the precious metals sector is the inability to invest with a long term perspective. Since 2001, gold has outperformed every asset class. The mining stocks, in general as measured using the HUI index, have outperformed the Dow/Naz since 2001.


This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 21, 2017.

Gold Miners’ Q2’17 Fundamentals

The gold miners’ stocks have spent months adrift, cast off in the long shadow of the Trumphoria stock-market rally. This vexing consolidation has left a wasteland of popular bearishness. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, bright fundamental sunlight dispelling the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ just-reported Q2’17 results prove this sector remains strong fundamentally, and super-undervalued.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, some companies still partially report quarterly.
The world’s major gold miners just wrapped up their second-quarter earnings season. After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by ever-shifting winds of sentiment.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index. GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition. This week GDX’s net assets are 19.9x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!
Being included in GDX is the gold standard for gold miners, requiring deep analysis and vetting by elite analysts. And due to ETF investing eclipsing individual-stock investing, major-ETF inclusion is one of the most-important considerations for picking great gold stocks. As the vast pools of fund capital flow into leading ETFs, these ETFs in turn buy shares in their underlying companies bidding their stock prices higher.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on August 18, 2017.

The New Silk Road will go through Syria — Pepe Escobar

Amid the proverbial doom and gloom pervading all things Syria, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune sometimes yield, well, good fortune.
Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as ‘The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction’.
And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.
Qin Yong, deputy chairman of the China-Arab Exchange Association, announced that Beijing plans to invest $2 billion in an industrial park in Syria for 150 Chinese companies.
Nothing would make more sense. Before the tragic Syrian proxy war, Syrian merchants were already incredibly active in the small-goods Silk Road between Yiwu and the Levant. The Chinese don’t forget that Syria controlled overland access to both Europe and Africa in ancient Silk Road times when, after the desert crossing via Palmyra, goods reached the Mediterranean on their way to Rome. After the demise of Palmyra, a secondary road followed the Euphrates upstream and then through Aleppo and Antioch.

This post was published at Asia Times

The New Silk Road Will Go Through Syria

Authored by Pepe Escobar via Asia Times,
China and Syria have already begun discussing post-war infrastructure investment; with a ‘Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction’ held in Beijing
Amid the proverbial doom and gloom pervading all things Syria, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune sometimes yield, well, good fortune.
Take what happened this past Sunday in Beijing. The China-Arab Exchange Association and the Syrian Embassy organized a Syria Day Expo crammed with hundreds of Chinese specialists in infrastructure investment. It was a sort of mini-gathering of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), billed as ‘The First Project Matchmaking Fair for Syria Reconstruction’.
And there will be serious follow-ups: a Syria Reconstruction Expo; the 59th Damascus International Fair next month, where around 30 Arab and foreign nations will be represented; and the China-Arab States Expo in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui province, in September.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Gold-Stock Inflection Nears

The gold miners’ stocks remain deeply out of favor, largely shunned by traders. Since this sector just spent the better part of a year grinding sideways, such bearish sentiment isn’t surprising. But with a giant technical formation nearing a major inflection point, things look to be coming to a head in gold-stock land. A big breakout is nearing, and gold stocks’ deep undervaluation relative to gold argues it will be to the upside.
Every investor’s portfolio should always include a core position in gold bullion. As a rare asset that tends to move counter to stock markets, gold acts like insurance. It rallies strongly when stocks and bonds are falling in serious corrections or bear markets, mitigating overall portfolio losses. Gold certainly has risks of its own, but they pale in comparison to the additional layers of risk heaped on by gold-mining stocks.
Gold miners face major financing, operational, geological, and geopolitical risks that gold doesn’t. Even when gold is thriving on strong investment demand, individual gold miners’ stocks greatly underperform if their mines suffer troubles. Thus gold-mining stocks must offer ultimate returns well beyond gold’s own, to compensate investors for bearing these miners’ big additional risks stacked on top of gold’s own risks.
Miners’ gains do amplify gold’s underlying gains during gold bulls, as evidenced in the flagship HUI gold-stock index. Gold stocks’ last secular bull ran for 10.8 years between November 2000 to September 2011. During that span the HUI skyrocketed 1664.4% higher, driven by gold’s own parallel 602.9% bull market! That made for 2.8x upside leverage for gold stocks relative to gold, right in line with historical ranges.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on June 9, 2017.

A Bumper Under that Silver Elevator – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

The Problem with Mining
If you can believe the screaming headline, one of the gurus behind one of the gold newsletters is going all-in to gold, buying a million dollars of mining shares. If (1) gold is set to explode to the upside, and (2) mining shares are geared to the gold price, then he stands to get seriously rich(er).
As this book attests to, some people have a very cynical view of mining… We would say there is a time for everything. For instance, when gold went from $270 to $320 in 2001-2002, the HUI index went from 35 points to 150 points, in a show of rather noteworthy outperformance (something similar happened in 2016). The ‘sweet spot’ for gold mining shares is usually early in gold rallies, before input prices catch up (empirically, gold has a habit of leading price moves in the main mining inputs) [PT]

This post was published at Acting-Man on May 15, 2017.

Gold Miners’ Q1’17 Fundamentals

The gold miners’ stocks have been slammed by a sharp gold pullback in recent weeks, spawning today’s bearish sentiment. Traders often get caught up in the emotional swings generated by this volatile sector. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, revealing gold mining’s hard fundamental realities which dispel the obscuring sentiment fogs. The major gold miners’ profitability actually just exploded higher in Q1!
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. Some companies in other countries with half-year reporting instead of quarterly even follow suit.
So the world’s major gold miners are just wrapping up their first-quarter earnings season. After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there’s no gold-stock data I look forward to more than the miners’ quarterly financial and operational reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index. GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition. This week GDX’s net assets are 36.2x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on May 12, 2017.

Huey’s Looking Haggard, But…

HUI is torn, frayed and downright bearish. What’s more, it’s been bearish since it started to drop from the SMA 200 failure point.
In NFTRH, we managed bounce #1 (off the Dec. low) as just that, a bounce. Then we managed bounce #2 as just that, a bounce. It doesn’t take a trained eye to see why; only a rise above the October high would have set an uptrend for bounce #1 and a rise above the February high would have set an uptrend for bounce #2.
It didn’t happen and any pumping done by the gold ‘community’ since last summer has really been just wishful thinking because the sector has been in ‘bounce only’ mode (of interest to traders), as I’ve parroted to subscribers over and over again. In fact, we’ve noted the failure to join gold and break to new highs in both the miners and silver as a negative divergence for the entire sector. Gold of course, was busy getting caught up with the Gassing, Tomahawk and MOAB war/terror trade, a canard that, along with the pestilence fear trade, never ends well.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 5 May 2017.

Gold-Stock-Bull Upside Targets

The get-no-respect gold-stock sector is in a strong young bull market. Past gold-stock bulls have grown to utterly-massive proportions before giving up their ghosts, greatly multiplying the wealth of contrarian investors and speculators. Today’s gold-stock bull is very likely to grow vastly larger before fully running its course. Fundamental gold-stock-bull upside targets reveal the lion’s share of gains are still yet to come.
A little over a year ago in January 2016, a monstrous gold-stock bear finally climaxed. The gold miners’ stocks fell to fundamentally-absurd 13.5-year secular lows as measured by their leading index, the HUI NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. Out of those dark depths of despair, a new gold-stock bull was stealthily born. And it soon started flexing its muscle, rocketing 182.2% higher in just 6.5 months by early August!
Nearly tripling your capital in a half-year is one heck of a ride, leaving gold stocks really overbought. So they naturally corrected. But that selling was soon greatly exacerbated by a series of low-probability events including a gold-futures-driven mass stopping and the post-election Trumphoria stock rally hammering gold. So the HUI’s normal and healthy correction ballooned into a huge 42.5% rout over 4.4 months.
That understandably fueled excessively-bearish psychology that still persists. But this extreme sector pessimism is really distorting the big picture, blinding traders to vast opportunities. Despite that outsized correction, the HUI still blasted 64.0% higher in 2016! That’s certainly the best-performing sector in all the stock markets. And the gold stocks are no slouch in 2017 either, up 17.0% year-to-date as of this week.
In less than 15 months, the gold-mining stocks as measured by the HUI have soared 111.8% higher! In any other sector, such huge gains would be widely celebrated. But not in gold stocks, which remain too contrarian to warrant a second glance from Wall Street. Yet despite this young bull’s already-impressive magnitude, it still remains a baby in gold-stock-bull terms. A doubling for gold stocks is just getting started.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on Adam Hamilton April 14, 2017.

Gold-Stock Breakouts Near

The gold-mining stocks’ usual volatility has proven outsized so far this year, spooking investors. A fast initial surge in a new upleg was soon fully reversed by a sharp major correction, which spawned much bearish sentiment. That combined with the great distraction from the Trumphoria stock-market rally has left gold stocks unloved and overlooked. But their outlook is very bullish, and major upside breakouts near.
It’s hard to find bargains in today’s extreme stock markets. They’ve been radically distorted by the post-election euphoria centered on universal hopes for big tax cuts soon. Nearly every sector has been bid up to dizzying valuations. Except gold stocks, which everyone still hates. They may very well be the last remaining contrarian sector in these crazy markets, and thus a great buying opportunity for smart traders.
Gold stocks have been left behind by the wild Trumphoria stock-market rally over the past 5 months. As of the middle of this week, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index is up 10.0% since Election Day. But the gold stocks as measured by their flagship HUI index are down 1.1% over that span. The gold stocks have really suffered since the election, which explains the stubbornly-bearish sentiment plaguing them today.
But perspective is everything in the markets, and that post-election snapshot is very misleading. So far in 2017, the HUI has rallied 12.5% to easily best the S&P 500’s 5.1% gain. And despite the post-election gold-stock carnage, the HUI still rocketed 64.0% higher in full-year 2016! That trounced the S&P 500’s mere 9.5% gain. Gold stocks stealthily remain one of the top-performing sectors in all the stock markets.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on April 7, 2017.

Potential Bottoming Patterns in the Precious Metals Complex…

There is a combo chart for the PM complex I’ve been following, on the short term 10 month daily look, which shows a potential H&S bottom forming. I put a neckline symmetry line on the charts to get a feel for where the low for the right shoulder may form. Some are fairly parallel to the neckline like GLD, SLV and the HUI with GDXJ and SIL being the most unparalleled. The CDNX is showing the most weakness as it probably has to do with some of the small cap energy companies.
GLD is trading the closest to the neckline so it may give an early heads up for the PM stock indexes. Keep in mind these potential H&S bottoms won’t be complete until the necklines are broken to the upside.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Wednesday, 22 March 2017.

The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run Is Greatly Exaggerated

A few analysts are once again beating the drums for much lower gold and silver prices – supposedly just around the corner. They mistake the testing of a recent breakout for a turnaround in the main trend. In the process they are sowing confusion. Here are some charts that show the main trend, along with reasons why the price of gold and silver is on track for a sharp rise, thanks to bullish fundamentals.
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In view of the fact that we expect mining stocks to lead the way, we will start with the HUI index of gold miners. Price has just finished a test of the January 2017 breakout. The green arrow points to confirmation of the uptrend that began at the blue arrow. This is referred to as an ‘ABC bottom’. The target for this breakout is 365. The supporting indicators are positive with room on the upside.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Tuesday, 21 March 2017.

Gold Sector: Positioning and Sentiment

A Case of Botched Timing, But…
When last we wrote about the gold sector in mid February, we discussed historical patterns in the HUI following breaches of its 200-day moving average from below. Given that we expected such a breach to occur relatively soon, the post turned out to be rather ill-timed. Luckily we always advise readers that we are not exactly Nostradamus (occasionally our timing is a bit better). Below is a chart of the HUI Index depicting the action since the January 2016 bear market low, with lateral support/resistance lines relevant to the recent action.

This post was published at Acting-Man on March 17, 2017.

Gold Miners’ Q4’16 Fundamentals

March 10, 2017
The gold miners’ stocks have corrected hard in recent weeks, hammered by a gold pullback driven by soaring Fed-rate-hike odds. Like any considerable selloff, this has spawned serious bearish sentiment. But the gold miners’ underlying operating fundamentals remain quite strong, proving the recent selling was purely psychological. This sector’s just-reported fourth-quarter results are impressive, very bullish.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by securities regulators, these quarterly results are exceedingly important for investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities. They serve to re-anchor perceptions.
After spending decades intensely studying and actively trading this contrarian sector, there is no gold-stock data I look forward to more than their quarterly reports. They offer a true and clear snapshot of what’s really going on, shattering all the misconceptions bred by the ever-shifting winds of sentiment. If you have capital deployed in this sector but don’t watch the quarterlies, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.
Normally quarterlies are due 45 calendar days after quarter-ends, in the form of 10-Qs required by the SEC for American companies. But after the final quarter of fiscal years, which are calendar years for most gold miners, that deadline extends out up to 90 days depending on company size. The 10-K annual reports required once a year are bigger, more complex, and require fully-audited numbers unlike 10-Qs.
So it takes companies more time to prepare full-year financials and then get them audited by CPAs right in the heart of their busy season. As a gold-stock trader this additional Q4 delay is irritating, since the data is getting stale by Q1’s end. But as a CPA and former Big Six auditor of mining companies, I have some understanding of just how much work goes into an SEC-mandated 10-K annual report. It is enormous!
This extended Q4-reporting window naturally delays the analysis of Q4 results. While I can start digging into the first three quarters’ results 5 or 6 weeks after those interim quarter-ends, I have to wait longer for the fiscal-year quarter-ends. Thankfully the great majority of gold miners have reported by 8 or 9 weeks, so we don’t have to wait until early Q2 to analyze Q4 results. The elite gold miners’ Q4’16 was very interesting.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Its composition and performance are similar to the benchmark HUI gold-stock index. GDX utterly dominates this sector, with no meaningful competition. This week GDX’s net assets are 53.6x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!
Being included in GDX is the gold standard for gold miners, as it requires deep analysis and vetting by elite analysts. And due to ETF investing eclipsing individual-stock investing, major-ETF inclusion is one of the most-important considerations for picking great gold stocks. As the vast pools of fund capital flow into leading ETFs, these ETFs in turn buy shares in their underlying companies bidding their prices higher.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on Adam Hamilton /.