Gold Will Be Safe Haven Again In Looming EU Crisis

– Gold will be safe haven again in looming EU crisis
– EU crisis is no longer just about debt but about political discontent
– EU officials refuse to acknowledge changing face of politics across the union
– Catalonia shows measures governments will use to maintain control
– EU currently holds control over banks accounts and ability to use cash
– Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial threat from EU
Editor: Mark O’Byrne
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When we talk about the Eurozone crisis we are usually referring to the Eurozone debt crisis. According to the OECD the debt crisis of 2011 was the world’s greatest threat.
In the years that followed, Germany, France and the UK led EU members in their efforts to stave off debt defaults from the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain and, of course, Greece. This was partly in order to protect the German, French and UK banks who had lent irresponsibly into the periphery EU nations and were very exposed.

This post was published at Gold Core on October 26, 2017.

Professor Claims Math, Algebra, And Geometry Promote “White Privilege”

A University of Illinois math professor believes that algebra and geometry perpetuate ‘white privilege’ because Greek terms give Caucasians unearned credit for the subject.
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But that isn’t the professor’s only complaint. She also believes that evaluations for math proficiency perpetuates discrimination against minority students, if they do worse than their white counterparts.
Rochelle Gutierrez argues in a newly published math education book for teachers that they must be aware of the identity politics surrounding the subject of mathematics.
‘On many levels, mathematics itself operates as Whiteness,’ she argues with complete sincerity, according to Campus Reform.
‘Who gets credit for doing and developing mathematics, who is capable in mathematics, and who is seen as part of the mathematical community is generally viewed as White.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 24, 2017.

Macron’s Call to Federalize Europe

France’s President Emmanuel Macron is calling for a radical restructuring of the whole EU. Macron has presented his map for the EU into 2024. He is proposing that the Eurozone budget must include a joint force for military operations. Macron intends to finance this new budget with its tax – the ‘EU tax’ he calls it.
Macron has looked at the numbers and see that France will go the way of Greece if something is not changed and soon. Macron hopes just to throw all the rotten eggs into one basket and hope nobody will notice. It’s the Three Musketeers – All for one; One for All just times 28.
Germany is still dominated by its misunderstanding of the Hyperinflation. Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis supports Macron’s federalist proposals on the euro single currency but believes only a real threat could make Germany budge on the issue. It has been Germany that opposed the consolidation of the debts to form the Euro. They are trying to remain isolated in their austerity posture refusing to budge on the debt consolidation, while at the same time they want the single currency to facilitate German exports eliminating foreign exchange risk among other members. They just cannot have it both ways.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Oct 22, 2017.

In The Shadows Of Black Monday – “Volatility Isn’t Broken… The Market Is”

Authored by Christopher Cole via Artemis Capital Management,
A full version of the article is available on the Artemis website.
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk
The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the infinite nature of creation from destruction. The sign appears across cultures and is an important icon in the esoteric tradition of Alchemy. Egyptian mystics first derived the symbol from a realphenomenon in nature. In extreme heat a snake, unable to self-regulateitsbody temperature, will experience an out-of-control spike in its metabolism. In a state of mania, the snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from its prey, and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing until it perishes. In nature and markets, when randomness self-organizes into too perfect symmetry, order becomes the source of chaos.
The Ouroboros is a metaphor for the financial alchemy driving the modern Bear Market in Fear. Volatility across asset classes is at multi-generational lows. A dangerous feedback loop now exists between ultra-low interest rates, debt expansion, asset volatility, and financial engineering that allocates risk based on that volatility. In this self-reflexive loop volatility can reinforce itself both lower and higher. In a market where stocks and bonds are both overvalued, financial alchemy is the only way to feed our global hunger for yield, until it kills the very system it is nourishing.
The Global Short Volatility trade now represents an estimated $2+ trillion in financial engineering strategies that simultaneously exert influence over, and are influenced by, stock market volatility. We broadly define the short volatility trade as any financial strategy that relies on the assumption of market stability to generate returns, while using volatility itself as an input for risk taking. Many popular institutional investment strategies, even if they are not explicitly shorting derivatives, generate excess returns from the same implicit risk factors as a portfolio of short optionality, and contain hidden fragility.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 21, 2017.

Italy’s Solution for Unemployment = Pension Crisis

The high taxation in Europe has crippled the economy. Those in power have not yet figured out that 70% of employment is created by the small business owner who they consider the rich and thus the enemy. Nowhere has this been more the case in Italy, Greece, and Spain. Italy is the next on the list of this Year From Political Hell come May 2018 and with youth unemployment above 30% for the past six years, the solution is not to lower taxes, but to steal from pensions to pay benefits to the youth.
In 2015 alone, some 50,000 Italians under 40 years of age migrated elsewhere to find jobs. Nearly half of them had gone to university to get degrees to no avail. All the fancy papers to frame and hang on the wall are not worth the cost of a frame. Italy and Greece are bleeding as their young talent cannot find a job and are pouring out of the country. The loss of these people is being argued is costing Italy 1% per year in economic growth. The estimate is closer to a 2% loss on GDO for Greece.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Oct 16, 2017.

The Curious Case Of Missing The Market Boom

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
‘The Cost of Missing the Market Boom is Skyrocketing’, says a Bloomberg headline today. That must be the scariest headline I’ve seen in quite a while. For starters, it’s misleading, because people who ‘missed’ the boom haven’t lost anything other than virtual wealth, which is also the only thing those who haven’t ‘missed’ it, have acquired.
Well, sure, unless they sell their stocks. But a large majority of them won’t, because then they would ‘miss’ out on the market boom… Some aspects of psychology don’t require years of study. Is that what behavioral economics is all about?
And it’s not just the headline, the entire article is scary as all hell. It reads way more like a piece of pure and undiluted stockbroker propaganda that it does resemble actual objective journalism, which Bloomberg would like to tell you it delivers. And it makes its point using some pretty dubious claims to boot: The Cost of Missing the Market Boom Is Skyrocketing
Skepticism in global equity markets is getting expensive. From Japan to Brazil and the U. S. as well as places like Greece and Ukraine, an epic year in equities is defying naysayers and rewarding anyone who staked a claim on corporate ownership. Records are falling, with about a quarter of national equity benchmarks at or within 2% of an all-time high.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 14, 2017.

Schuble: Another Financial Crisis Is Coming Due To Spiraling Global Debt, “New Bubbles”

Following the disappointing for Angela Merkel and her CDU German election results, which propelled the populist AfD into Germany’s political establishment with 92 members of parliament, the first casualty was Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schuble, who in a few days will relinquish his long-held post and move on to the ceremonial role of Bundestag president. As part of his farewell tour, Schuble – like so many other former members of the establishment- took a parting shot at the system he helped create and warned that “spiraling levels of global debt and liquidity”, as well as “new bubbles” present a major risk to the world economy.
Speaking to the FT, the Europhile beloved in Germany for successfully steering one of the world’s largest economies for the past eight years, and who nearly led to Grexit in the summer of 2005, said there was a danger of ‘new bubbles’ forming due to the trillions of dollars that central banks have pumped into markets. Confirming another fear widely propagated by the Putin propaganda alternative media, Schuble also warned of risks to stability in the eurozone, particularly those posed by bank balance sheets burdened by the post-crisis legacy of non-performing loans, something we have warned about since 2012, and an issue which remains largely unresolved.
A strong advocate of fiscal rectitude and debt reduction, Mr Schuble dominated Europe’s policy response to the eurozone debt crisis and has been vilified in countries such as Greece as an architect of austerity. But he will mainly be remembered as the most ardently pro-European politician in German chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet, skilled at selling the benefits of the euro and of deeper European integration to an often sceptical German public.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 8, 2017.

Kyle Bass Sounds Off On “Worthless” Puerto Rican Debt, The Crypto “Gold Rush”, And Guns

With the dollar’s recent post-Fed bout of appreciation providing some much-needed relief for Haymarket Capital’s P&L, its founder Kyle Bass sat for an interview on Friday with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker. During the 20 minute discussion, Bass expounded on the importance of holding gold, his cautiously optimistic view on digital currencies, the misguided notion that holders of Puerto Rican debt will someday be made whole – oh, and Bass’s next big call: Long Greece – particularly the stocks and debt of Greek banks.
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A few weeks ago, Bloomberg view published a Bass-penned editorial in which the hedge fund founder and CIO called on the IMF to stop bullying Greece – publicizing the fact that he is now effectively long Greece. Greek government bonds have performed reasonably well so far this year: They’re up about 16%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 7, 2017.

The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2017 YTD

While September and Q3 were the latest solid month for US risk assets, which ended the month and quarter at all time highs, across the globe returns were relatively more mixed for the sample of assets tracked by Deutsche Bank. That said, a large number of assets (21 of 39 in local currency terms) finished with a total return between -1% and +1% which in part reflects another month of incredibly low volatility with the VIX in particular spending much of it trading between 9.5 and 11.0. In the end, excluding currencies 19 out of 39 assets finished the month with a positive total return in local currency and USD hedged terms.
As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid reports this morning, in terms of the movers and shakers, commodities dominated the top of the German bank’s leaderboard with Wheat (+9%), WTI (+9%) and Brent (+8%) all finishing with a high single digit return. It’s worth noting however that this does follow heavy falls for the price of Wheat and WTI in August. Equities generally had a strong month, particularly in Europe where a slightly weaker euro (-1%) aided local currency returns. The DAX (+6%), FTSE MIB (+5%), Stoxx 600 (+4%), Portugal General (+4%) and IBEX (+1%) all finished firmer – the latter underperforming however reflecting elevated tension around the Catalan referendum. Returns in USD terms were 0% to +6%. It’s worth also noting the return for European Banks (+5% local, +4% USD) which got a boost from the slightly higher rate environment. There were two standout underperformers in equity markets however. The first was the Greek Athex which tumbled -8% in local terms although still remains up an impressive +19% YTD. The other was the FTSE 100 which fell -1% under the weight of a strong month for Sterling (+4%) following the BoE signalling an imminent rate hike as well as some progress around Brexit talks. Indeed in USD terms the FTSE 100 was up +3%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 2, 2017.

Germany’s Finance Minister Schauble Out, To Become Bundestag President

The man who made “nein” a household word everywhere, and especially Greece, will no longer be in charge of Europe’s biggest economy.
As part of the fallout from Sunday’s disastrous, for the CDU election, election which will see Merkel govern in a three-way coalition with the minor German parties, it was expected that Germany’s iconic finance minister Wolfgang Schauble would be kicked out of his post. It also means that Germany’s pro-business, low-tax FDP, whose support Merkel is likely to need, will be put in charge of the coveted finance ministry position.
That was confirmed moments ago by the German news agency dpa, which reported that Schauble is to step aside from the German finance ministry position he has held since 2009, to become president of the German Bundestag, or lower house of parliament.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 27, 2017.

Gold As The Monetary System’s Sun

For millennia, people believed that the sun revolved around the earth, appearing, as it did, on the eastern horizon in the morning and setting on the western horizon in the evening.
Greek astronomer Aristarchus of Samos is generally credited with the concept that the universe is heliocentric, with all the planets revolving around the sun. Yet it took a further eighteen centuries before Nicolaus Copernicus came along and convinced people that this was the case.
So, we can be forgiven if we educated modern-day people sometimes have difficulty in understanding that gold is the monetary sun.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 26, 2017.

8 Reasons Why Bill Blain Is Suddenly Very Worried About Germany

Blain’s Morning Porridge EXTRA: ‘WHAT ABOUT THE GERMANS’
It’s unusual for me to write a follow up to the Morning Porridge – but following some conversations and reading about the end of ‘Peak Merkel’, I fear I’ve considerably underestimated the risks raised by the inconclusive German Election.
We are now facing a period of intense political bargaining, weak government and even the potential of a second German vote.
As a result, the prospects for more volatile European peripheral markets, particularly Greece and Italy, are likely to be exacerbated, and we might well see some of the currency and European stock market froth blow away in coming days as the scale of the ‘German Problem’ becomes clearer.
My worst case Germany scenario is a second election early next year, political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out, and a scramble to build a new coalition government in her aftermath. The best case scenario isn’t much better: that Merkel manages to forge a new coalition, but it will be a long drawn out affair and the resulting administration will be vulnerable, weak and fraxious.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 25, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Ubi Sunt? Not With a Bang, But a Whimper

‘Love does not make you weak, because it is the source of all strength, but it makes you see the nothingness of the illusory strength on which you depended before you knew it.’
Lon Bloy
Stocks were a little wobbly today, although the VIX continued to be at quite low levels for this year at least.
The economic news is mixed, as usual.
The dollar gave a little of yesterday’s sharp rally higher back today. The rally itself was more technical than anything else, given the long decline that it has already seen. Certainly any notions of a hawkish Fed raising rates with enough fortitude to make a difference in the dollar is sheer fantasy.
The Fed may have one more rate increase in them for this year, but they are already on thin ice given the weak recovery and lingering lack of organic growth. The reasons are so obvious one really hates to keep repeating them. The economists certainly know them, but they are reluctant to discuss the Emperor’s nakedness. Alas, they are too often a craven careerist lot as a whole. But such are the times.
As my Greek attorney put it just today, “Hillary just wants to tweak the status quo because it works well for her and her donors Bernie wanted to change the status quo, so he was a threat to everyone but the public.”
Indeed. The credibility trap is alive and well, and crippling the impulse and efforts to reform.
Have a pleasant evening.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 21 SEPTEMBER 2017.

The forthcoming global crisis

The global economy is now in an expansionary phase, with bank credit being increasingly available for non-financial borrowers. This is always the prelude to the crisis phase of the credit cycle. Most national economies are directly boosted by China, the important exception being America. This is confirmed by dollar weakness, which is expected to continue. The likely trigger for the crisis will be from the Eurozone, where the shift in monetary policy and the collapse in bond prices will be greatest. Importantly, we can put a tentative date on the crisis phase in the middle to second half of 2018, or early 2019 at the latest.
Introduction
Ever since the last credit crisis in 2007/8, the next crisis has been anticipated by investors. First, it was the inflationary consequences of zero interest rates and quantitative easing, morphing into negative rates in the Eurozone and Japan. Extreme monetary policies surely indicated an economic and financial crisis was just waiting to happen. Then the Eurozone started a series of crises, the first of several Greek ones, the Cyprus bail-in, then Spain, Portugal and Italy. Any of these could have collapsed the world’s financial order.

This post was published at GoldMoney on September 21, 2017.

Suddenly, ‘De-Dollarization’ Is A Thing

For what seems like decades, other countries have been tiptoeing away from their dependence on the US dollar. China, Russia, and India have cut deals in which they agree to accept each others’ currencies for bi-lateral trade while Europe, obviously, designed the euro to be a reserve asset and international medium of exchange.
These were challenges to the dollar’s dominance, but they weren’t mortal threats.
What’s happening lately, however, is a lot more serious. It even has an ominous-sounding name: de-dollarization. Here’s an excerpt from a much longer article by ‘strategic risk consultant’ F. William Engdahl:
Gold, Oil and De-Dollarization? Russia and China’s Extensive Gold Reserves, China Yuan Oil Market
(Global Research) – China, increasingly backed by Russia – the two great Eurasian nations – are taking decisive steps to create a very viable alternative to the tyranny of the US dollar over world trade and finance. Wall Street and Washington are not amused, but they are powerless to stop it. So long as Washington dirty tricks and Wall Street machinations were able to create a crisis such as they did in the Eurozone in 2010 through Greece, world trading surplus countries like China, Japan and then Russia, had no practical alternative but to buy more US Government debt – Treasury securities – with the bulk of their surplus trade dollars. Washington and Wall Street could print endless volumes of dollars backed by nothing more valuable than F-16s and Abrams tanks. China, Russia and other dollar bond holders in truth financed the US wars that were aimed at them, by buying US debt. Then they had few viable alternative options.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on SEPTEMBER 15, 2017.

“Ole Miss Goes Bananas”: Dear Parents, How’s This For A $40K A Year Education?

What new college campus PC outrage could top ESPN’s decision to remove an Asian announcer named Robert Lee from calling a UVA game? One might reasonably think, impossible! But campus snowflakes have done it again, and this time it’s a single discarded banana peel which sent a college fraternity event hosting campus “leaders” into meltdown and general panic.
As one prominent columnist put it, “Ole Miss Goes Bananas” – we truly wish this was merely an over the top parody featured in The Onion, but unfortunately the triggered victims’ tears are all to real. The Daily Mississippian broke the story this week, which quickly went viral:
This weekend, leaders from Ole Miss Greek life convened upon Camp Hopewell in Lafayette County for a three-day retreat designed to build leaders and bring campus closer together. The retreat was cut short Saturday night, however, after three black students found a banana peel in a tree in front of one of the camp’s cabins.
The students shared what they found with National Pan-Hellenic Council leaders, sparking a day’s worth of camp-wide conversation surrounding symbolism, intended or not. In the midst of the open and sometimes heated discussion, senior accounting major Ryan Swanson said he put the banana peel in the tree when he could not find a trashcan nearby.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 2, 2017.

Germany’s New Political Party Is Just Another Big-Government Party

The German election is a month away and with that also from a real rarity: a party getting into parliament which is on the “right” of Angela Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian partner, the CSU. Over the last decades, this has been a no-go zone in German politics, too severe were the memories of the Nazi era. But come September, the Alternative fr Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), or AfD, will set a landmark, beating the five percent threshold to get into parliament in all likelihood (currently they are polling between seven and ten percent).
As we have seen throughout the years, those considered as ‘right-wing populists’ in the mainstream are by no means a homogeneous group, from Brexiteers in the UKIP and on the fringe of the Tories as somewhat favorable examples to more frightening ones like Marine Le Pen in France. But what kind of party is the AfD?
The AfD was founded in 2013 by a bunch of economics professors – at first they were mockingly called’Professorenpartei’ (‘professor’s party’) – who were fed up by the crisis in Greece and demanded a German exit from the Eurozone. Among them were economists like Joachim Starbatty and Roland Vaubel, known in Germany for their free-market ideas. The goal was to found a party which would reconcile the cultural conservatism that was lost in the conservative CDU and the liberal economic policies that were lost in the classical-liberal party, the FDP. However, the AfD focused increasingly on refugees instead of the euro, which led to the departure of many of its founding members in 2015, including the leader up to that point, Bernd Lucke.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on August 30, 2017.

It’s Goldman vs JPMorgan As ISDA’s Noble Indecision Roils CDS Market

Several years ago, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, or ISDA, lost much of its credibility when during the peak of the Eurozone debt crisis, it first refused to determine that CDS on Greece had been triggered (i.e., that an event of default had taken place) only to eventually concede – following substantial outside pressure – that Greece had, in fact, defaulted (if only on bonds not held by a certain central bank), but not before penning a “petulant” blog post in which it claimed amusingly that the “credit event/DC process is fair, transparent and well-tested”. The fiasco prompted many, this site included, to dub sovereign Credit Default Swaps as “Schrodinger’s CDS”, contracts which may or may not pay out in case of a default, depending on which way the political winds were blowing at any given time.
Fast forward to today when not only is ISDA in hot water again, but the entire corporate CDS market has been roiled by another indecision by ISDA, which said “it was unable to determine” if Singapore-listed Noble Group, formerly Asia’s largest independent commodity trader was in default or not, creating a vacuum similar to what happened with Greece 5 years ago, and which, according to the FT, has resulted in mass confusion in the corporate bond and CDS market. What is more striking, however, is that this is “the first time ISDA has dismissed a question of default without making a ruling either way.”
Specifically, on August 9, ISDA ruled the following:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 28, 2017.

Greeks Rejoice – Government Scraps Controversial Wine Consumption Tax

While austerity still reigns supreme over Greek society, amid resurgent refugee arrivals, still near-record high youth unemployment, record-high suicide rates, and a constant brain-drain exodus of young talent, this weekend saw a brief silver lining as the government decided to scrap the controversial special consumption tax on wine.
The measure, which not only did not meet revenue targets, but actually boosted illegal trade in wine and grapes, will be halted by the end of the year.
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As KeepTalkingGreece reports, inaugurating the Wine Days of Nemea 2017 in one of wine producing regions of Greece, Minister for Rural Development, Vaggelis Apostolou said that the ministry is working on the legislation to scrap the special consumption tax on wine and it is expected to be ready before the end of the year.’It is a commitment by prime minister Alexis Tsipras that the tax will not exist in the new year,’ Apostolou stressed.
Finance Ministry sources told daily Efimerida Ton Syntakton that the special consumption tax on wine caused more damage to the sector of wine producers than it brought revenues to the state.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 28, 2017.

AUGUST 24/TWO HUGE WHACKS ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY BUT OUR PRECIOUS METALS ARE STILL RESILIENT: GOLD DOWN ONLY $2.15 AND SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/GREECE HIT WITH A HUGE INFLUX OF MIGRANTS FROM TURKEY/…

GOLD: $1286.85 DOW $2.15
Silver: $16.98 DOWN 9 CENTS
Closing access prices:
Gold $1290.40
silver: $17.08
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1294.05 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1287.80
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $6.25
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1293.21
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.60
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$3.61
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1285.90
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1286.20
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1289.00
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1289.10
For comex gold:
AUGUST/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 4584 FOR 458,400 OZ (14.258 TONNES)
For silver:
AUGUST
28 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
140,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1132 for 5,600,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on August 24, 2017.