Precious Metals: Patience Is Golden

Without growth in Western gold ETF holdings, the ‘decent but not spectacular’ demand from China and India is not strong enough to move the gold price higher. Please click here now. The SPDR (GLD-nyse) fund gold holdings currently sit at about 843 tonnes. There has been very little change in the total tonnage for several months. That’s neutral for the gold price. Governments don’t like their citizens to own much gold. Restrictions they impose (like India’s import duty as a recent example) dampen demand enough so that the price rises very slowly most of the time. Economic growth in China and India are increasing demand (the love trade) and mine supply is contracting, but the process is essentially ‘Chindian water torture’ for investors who want to see the price skyrocket like it did in the late 1970s. Investors that want ‘big action’ in the gold price need to wait patiently for the US business cycle to peak. For the price of gold to really sizzle, the business cycle needs to have aninflationary peak. That hasn’t happened since the 1970s. Many gold price analysts have used overlap charts that suggest the gold market now is akin to the 1976-1978 period. I look at fundamentals first, and charts second. From an inflationary standpoint, the US economy looks more akin to the late 1960s than the late 1970s. The winds of inflation are beginning to blow, but they won’t become a hurricane for some time. Having said that, I’ve noted that the St. Louis Fed has calculated that the QE program would have sent the US inflation rate above 30% if money velocity had been at normal levels.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 November 2017.

A ‘Silver’ Lining In The Metals Market

First published on Sunday Nov 5 for members: Last weekend (Oct 28-29), I tried to explain why it looked as though the metals market has been telling different stories in the various charts I follow. And, in my mid-week update, I explained this a bit further:
When I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.
Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above. GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same ‘potential’ structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.
And, then we are left with the GDX. As long as the GDX remains below the 23.05 level, it still has a smaller degree set up to test the 22 region before a rally may ensue.
So, on Friday (Nov 3), GDX has now dropped down and provided us the lower low I was looking for this past week right into the support region I noted last weekend between 21.95-22.30. Moreover, both gold and silver have now pulled back from their rallies begun this past week, and have still retained a set up to rally in the upcoming week.

This post was published at SilverSeek on Thursday, November 9th.

NOV 9/GOLD WITHSTANDS ANOTHER ATTACK FROM THE BANKERS AS IT RISES BY $3.25/SILVER HOWEVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NIKKEI SWOONS 800 POINTS BEFORE BEING RESCUED BY THEIR PPT/SAUDI ARABIA, KUWAIT AND UAE ALL…

GOLD: $1287.00 UP $3.25
Silver: $17.00 DOWN 11 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1285.50
silver: $16.99
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1289.93 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1281.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.33(premiums getting LARGER AGAIN)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1293.60
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.70
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.90 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER AGAIN)
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1284.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.95
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1284.80
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1284.60
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 200 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 975 FOR 97,500 OZ (3.032TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
25,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 869 for 4,345,000 oz
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Bitcoin: BID $7119 OFFER /$7149 DOWN $328.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING; BID $7192 OFFER: 7217 // DOWN $265.00
end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1386 contracts from 208,500 DOWN TO 201,944 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER ROSE BY A RATHER LARGE 16 CENTS. THIS TIME WE HAD OVER 1000 EFP’S ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS IN SILVER FOR DECEMBER DUE TO THEIR ‘EMERGENCY SITUATION’ WHERE THEY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH METAL TO SERVE UPON OUR LONGS. OUR LONGS AT THE COMEX RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT AT A DIFFERENT EXCHANGE AND THAT NO DOUBT IS LONDON. THIS IS THE EARLIEST THAT I HAVE SEEN THAT EFP’S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AN UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH. GENERALLY IT IS GOLD THAT IS THE MEGA RECIPIENT OF EFP’S WITH SILVER MUCH SMALLER. SO NO DOUBT WE WILL SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF EFP’S ISSUED WITHIN A WEEK OF FIRST DAY NOTICE.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED DROP IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE 16 CENT PRICE RISE. COMEX LONGS EXITED OUT OF THE COMEX WITH OVER 1000 EFP’S ISSUED FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.009 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A TINY 453 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($8.35) WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING . WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING IN GOLD. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 536,390. NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. OUR BANKERS WERE MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN COVERING A TINY PORTION OF THEIR GOLD SHORTS.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE DECEMB CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($8.35). WE MAY HAVE HAD SOME BANK SHORT COVERING. WE CERTAINLY HAD NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERING THE GOLD COMEX AREA TO WHICH OUR BANKERS REGRETFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
we had: 2 notice(s) filed upon for 200 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
No changes in gold inventory at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 843.09 tonnes.
SLV
TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 9, 2017.

NOV 7/THE HIGH SILVER OPEN INTEREST FORCES THE BANKERS TO INITIATE ANOTHER RAID TODAY/GOLD DOWN $4.75 AND SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/ITALY’S TARGET 2 IMBALANCE AT A RECORD 433 BILLION EUROS WHICH CAN N…

GOLD: $1275.40 DOWN $4.75
Silver: $16.95 DOWN 27 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1275.40
silver: $16.95
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1293.86 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.85
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $14.01(premiums getting smaller)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1285.00
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.00
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.00 PREMIUMS GETTING smaller)
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1276.35
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1276.30
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1275.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1276.95 ??
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 110 NOTICE(S) FOR 11000 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 966 FOR 96,600 OZ (3.004TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
35,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 863 for 4,315,000 oz
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Bitcoin: $7174 bid /$7199 offer up $244.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$7099 BID:7124. OFFER down $124.00
end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A HUGE 3562 contracts from 204 ,938 DOWN TO 208,500 WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 37 CENTS. THE CROOKS NO DOUBT ARE PULLING THEIR HAIR AS THEY ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS. THEY TRY TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR TORMENT WITH NO APPRECIABLE FALL IN SILVER OI. YESTERDAY HUGE NUMBERS OF NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ENTERED THE SILVER ARENA TO WHICH OUR BANKERS DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED.
RESULT: A HUGE SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX WITH THE CONSIDERABLE 37 CENT PRICE GAIN. NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA AND THESE GUYS WERE DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS. THERE WAS NO SHORTCOVERING YESTERDAY.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.042 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 35,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A LARGER THAN EXPECTED 8303 CONTRACTS WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD ($11.25) WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 537,727. NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($11.25). WE HAD ZERO BANK SHORT COVERING AS ANY OF OUR NEWBIE LONGS RE-ENTERED THE GOLD COMEX AREA TO WHICH OUR BANKERS DUTIFULLY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.
we had: 110 notice(s) filed upon for 11,000 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
A huge change in gold inventory at the GLD/ a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes
Inventory rests tonight: 844.27 tonnes.
SLV
TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 8, 2017.

NOV 6/GOLD REBOUNDS NICELY UP $11.25 TO $1280.15 BUT THE STAR OF TODAY IS SILVER UP 37 CENTS CLOSING AT $17.22 /SHANGHAI PREMIUMS TO NY PRICING IS $23.08/TROUBLE IN CHINA’S SHADOW BANKING SECTOR/…

GOLD: $1280.15 UP $11.25
Silver: $17.22 UP 37 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1282.00
silver: $17.22
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1291.77 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1269.00
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $22.77(premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1291.58
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1268.50
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$23.08 PREMIUMS GETTING HUGE)
CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1271.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1271.60
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1270.90
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1271.80 ??
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 27 NOTICE(S) FOR 2700 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 856 FOR 85,600 OZ (2.662TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
50,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 856 for 4,280,000 oz
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Bitcoin: $7361 bid /$7368 offer up $138.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$7099 BID:7124. OFFER down $124.00
end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1130 contracts from 206 ,068 DOWN TO 204,938 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 27 CENTS. THE CROOKS NO DOUBT ARE PULLING THEIR HAIR AS THEY ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS. THEY TRY TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR TORMENT LIKE THE RAID ON FRIDAY. A FEW NEWBIE SPEC LONGS LEFT THE SILVER ARENA AND THUS WE HAVE A VERY TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE 27 CENT PRICE LOSS. OUR BANKERS COULD HARDLY COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL DESPITE THE MANIPULATED CRIMINAL BANKER RAID WHICH HAD THEIR OBJECT OF THE EXERCISE TO CAUSE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES TO FALL FROM THE SILVER TREE. AS WE HAVE WITNESSED ON COUNTLESS OCCASIONS WITH RESPECT TO SILVER, IT FAILED MISERABLY.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.025 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 50,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 4,347 CONTRACTS WITH THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($8.65) WITH FRIDAY’S TRADING . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 529,124. NEWBIE LONGS EXITED THE ARENA TO WHICH THE BANKERS COVERED.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI WITH THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($8.65). WE HAD SOME BANK SHORT COVERING AS SOME OF OUR NEWBIE LONGS GOT STOP LOSSED OUT OF THEIR CONTRACTS.
we had: 27 notice(s) filed upon for 2700 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
A tiny change in gold inventory at the GLD/ a withdrawal of .29 tonnes to pay for fees and insurance
Inventory rests tonight: 845.75 tonnes.
SLV
TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.018 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 6, 2017.

Analyzing the Mainstream Analysts: Are SLV Holdings Really Plummeting?

It was a headline designed for shock value. The title screamed, Investors Dumping SLV at Fastest Pace in 6 Years!
The headline came from Bloomberg, the epitome of ‘mainstream’ news in my opinion. The article reported that investors were ‘dumping’ holdings in SLV, the largest silver exchange-traded fund. They claimed the silver market had been ‘hit by a gale force, spurring an exit from ETFs backed by the metal.’
As you might guess, we do a lot of reading around here. And this was the first I’d heard of a ‘mass exodus’ from SLV. Did I somehow miss this development?
It’s important, because if holdings in SLV were really cratering, it might be a sign that the market – or at least these types of investors – had changed their mind about silver. You might know that holdings in silver-backed ETFs have been stubbornly high for years, refusing to bow to any price pressures. During the crash of 2008, for example, holdings rose sharply in spite of the price falling off a cliff. Same thing happened in 2013 when the price cratered… holdings never really declined all that much, in spite of GLD shares dropping hard.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 2 November 2017.

NOV 1/SILVER IS THE STAR OF THE DAY:UP 2.8% OR 48 CENTS/A LONDON BASED COMPANY IS THE FIRST MAJOR TRADING COMPANY TO BE DINGED WITH ‘GHOST COLLATERAL’ COMING FROM CHINA/GOLD UP $6.60/AT THE COMEX…

GOLD: $1276.60 UP $6.60
Silver: $17.18 UP 48 cents
Closing access prices:
Gold $1275.00
silver: $17.13
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1283.60 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1269.60
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $14.00(premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1297.34
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1274.50
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$22.84 PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
CHINA REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING OF GOLD!!!!
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1279.25
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.00
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1277.05
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1273.30 ??
For comex gold:
NOVEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 186 NOTICE(S) FOR 18,600 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 709 FOR 70,900 OZ (2.205TONNES)
For silver:
NOVEMBER
140 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
700,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 567 for 2,835,000 oz
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Bitcoin: $6517 bid /$6527 offer up $86.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$6581 BID:6601. OFFER UP $146.00
end
Today gold had a pretty good day rising by $6.60 but it was silver that was star of the show rising by 48 cents or 2.8%. This time around silver rose for no apparent reason. It is obvious that its huge 196,000 short comex contracts are having its effect on our bankers. As I have outlined to you for the past few months, the banks are desperate trying to cover but to no avail. They have en masse decided to run to higher ground where they will regroup and try again. If the silver price runs away from them like the Bitcoin price, our banker friends will implode.
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A LARGE SIZED 2419 contracts from 196 ,434 UP TO 198,853 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TRADING IN WHICH SILVER FELL BY 13 CENTS. THE CROOKS ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS SO THEY CONTINUE TO TORMENT.
RESULT: A GOOD SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX WITH THE 13 CENT PRICE LOSS. OUR BANKERS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.993 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 142% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 140 NOTICE(S) FOR 700,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2419 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($6.15) . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 531,918.
NO EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPCOMING NOVEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($6.15). THERE CERTAINLY WAS NO SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS WITH THE RAID YESTERDAY
we had: 186 notice(s) filed upon for 18,600 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
Strange! with gold up $6.60 today, we had a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from inventory at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 849.59 tonnes.
SLV
STRANGE: WITH SILVER DOING WELL THESE PAST THREE TRADING DAYS AND ESPECIALLY TODAY WITH A HUGE GAIN OF 48 CENTS, WE HAD NO DEPOSIT GAIN IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.155 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 1, 2017.

Gold Prices Slip in Big Week for Central-Bank Policy, Trump Campaign Managers Arrested

Gold prices inched lower on Monday morning in London ahead of a busy week for central bank policy meetings, plus Donald Trump’s pick for the next head of the US Federal Reserve writes Steffen Grosshauser at BullionVault.
After the European Central Bank slowed its QE stimulus growth last week, the Bank of Japan will announce its latest policy on Tuesday, followed by the Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.
No change to the US and Japanese benchmark rates is expected, but the UK is set to raise rates from the current all-time low of 0.25% according to consensus forecasts.
“Gold continues to face strong headwinds from US economic growth, an equity rally boosted by tax reform and a potentially more hawkish Fed,” says the latest weekly note from Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi’s Jonathan Butler.
“President Trump is said to favor existing governor Jerome Powell, widely seen as a relatively dovish continuity candidate. [But] the surprise outcome would be the announcement of Prof. John Taylor…[and] likely see a rally in Treasury yields and the Dollar, and damage gold.”
The largest gold-backed ETF trust fund vehicle, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD), saw outflows of 2.4-tonnes last Friday after being unchanged at 853.1 tonnes for eight days.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/30/2017.

2017 Was The Year Of Gold’s Consolidation, So What Will 2018 Present?

One of the most frustrating charts to trade during 2017 has been almost any chart in the metals complex. In fact, if you speak to most metals investors, you would almost think that they have incurred a huge loss in 2017.
But, that is far from the truth. In fact, since we caught the low around 107 in the GLD at the end of 2016, we have seen it rally almost 20% off those lows when it struck its 2017 high back in early September. As I write this article, we are still 13% off those lows.
Even though we still have seen a nicely positive year for GLD to date, the sentiment is one of despondency and despair. You see, the complex has had multiple opportunities to strongly break out during 2017, but has failed to reach escape velocity despite several set ups to do so. And this has likely caused the negative sentiment pervasive through the market, despite the positive return year. In fact, the best categorization of the sentiment I am seeing in the market is indifference.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 October 2017.

How High Can The Metals Continue To Push?

First published on Sunday Oct 15 for members: Despite my warnings of caution in the metals complex over the last month, we expected to see a rally begin over the last two weeks. Thus far, the market has complied rather well. But, the question is how high can we continue to rally? And, based upon the market’s answer in the coming month, it will either set up a more bullish corrective pullback into year end, or a much deeper pullback, especially in the miner’s complex.
I want to repost my analysis from last week, as it is still quite applicable:
As I explained in greater detail last weekend, if the GDX is able to make a higher high in the 26 region in the coming weeks, then it leaves the door open that green wave (2) may not break below the July lows. However, if the market is unable to develop a higher high over that struck in September, and then breaks below the low made before the current rally began, it opens the door to the GDX dropping down towards the 17 region before year end to complete a much more protracted wave ii, as presented in yellow on the daily GDX chart.
My preference still remains that GDX, silver and GLD all make a higher high in the coming weeks, which would put a more bullish stance upon the complex (even though another drop will likely take us into the end of the years), I really have nothing to which I can point that would suggest this will occur within a high degree of probability.
So, as I have noted several times over the last few weeks, I have turned extremely cautious of the complex, at least until it proves itself with a higher high being struck in the coming weeks. Until such time, I am going to be more protective of my positions.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 20 October 2017.

OCT 2.2017/CHINA IS ON GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY AND THUS THE CROOKS WILL RAID ALL WEEK/SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD OR SILVER LEFT THE GLD OR SLV: I WONDER WHY?/BILL HOLTER’S IMPORTANT PAPER..A MUST READ…

GOLD: $1274.25 down $8.25
Silver: $16.60 down 8 CENT(S)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1271.10
silver: $16.60
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $n/a DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $n/a
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.24 (premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $n/a
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $/na
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$13.00 (PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $not important
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $not important
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1283.10
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1283.10
For comex gold:
OCTOBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 2800 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 439 FOR 43900 OZ (1.3654 TONNES)
For silver:
OCTOBER
19 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
95,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 304 for 1,520,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 2, 2017.

SEPT 28/GOLD RISES BY $1.55 TO $1286.00/SILVER UP 3 CENTS/UBS AGREES WITH US THAT THE USA WILL NOT IMPLEMENT ANY MEANINGFUL TAX REFORM/CHINA ORDERS ALL NORTHERN KOREAN COMPANIES AND PERSONNEL OUT…

GOLD: $1286.00 UP $1.55
Silver: $16.82 UP 3 CENT(S)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1287.50
silver: $16.87
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1293.84 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.30
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.54 (premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1291.23
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.90
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.32 (PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1284.30
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1282.30 ???
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1283.35
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1284.00???
For comex gold:
SEPTEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 484 NOTICE(S) FOR 48400 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 577 FOR 57700 OZ (1.7947 TONNES)
For silver:
SEPTEMBER
37 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
185,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6,575 for 32,875,000 oz
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end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY 1909 contracts from 186,997 DOWN TO 184,997 WITH THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 9 CENTS ). AGAIN TODAY, IT SURE LOOKS LIKE WE GOT A SMALL AMOUNT OF BANKER SILVER SHORT COVERING AT THIS WEEK IS OPTIONS EXPIRY ON THE LONDON/OTC MARKET AND WE ALWAYS ON THE RECIPROCAL END OF RAIDS
RESULT: A SMALL FALL IN OI COMEX WITH THE 9 CENT PRICE FALL. IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAD A SMALL AMOUNT OF BANKER SHORTS COVERING. THE BANKERS AGAIN ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER RAID TODAY AND FAILED AGAIN.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.924 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 132% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 78 NOTICE(S) FOR 390,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A LARGE 9752 CONTRACTS WITH THE FALL in price of gold ($13.65 DROP) WITH YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 539,885. WE ARE NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK SO IT IS NOT A SURPRISE THAT THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR RAIDING. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE CONTINUAL RAIDS HAS THE OBJECT OF INTEREST BEING SILVER AND NOT GOLD AS WE STILL WITNESS STUBBORN LONGS REFUSE TO BUDGE FROM THEIR SILVER TREE.
Result: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI WITH THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($13.65).
we had: 484 notice(s) filed upon for 48400 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD: WOW!!
Tonight , NO CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD:
Inventory rests tonight: 864.65 tonnes.
SLV
Today: a no changes in inventory:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 28, 2017.

SEPT 27/GOLD DOWN $13.65 TODAY YET GLD INVENTORY ADVANCES BY 8.57 TONNES/SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/AGAIN AT THE COMEX, THE AMOUNT OF SILVER INCREASES:…

GOLD: $1284.45 DOWN $13.65
Silver: $16.79 DOWN 9 CENT(S)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1282.85
silver: $16.78
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1304.39 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1295.15
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.24 (premiums getting larger)
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1300.85
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1294.55
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.30
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1291.30
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.60 ???
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1282.55
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1283.40???
For comex gold:
SEPTEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 93 FOR 9300 OZ (0.2892 TONNES)
For silver:
SEPTEMBER
78 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
390,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6,538 for 32,690,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 27, 2017.

SEPT 19/GOLD AND SILVER HOLD: GOLD UP 15 CENTS AND SILVER UP 10 CENTS/GLD INVENTORY ADVANCES ANOTHER 2.07 TONNES/GIANT EARTHQUAKE HITS CLOSE TO MEXICO CITY/HURRICANE MARIE, A CAT 4 IS HEADING STR…

GOLD: $1307.50 UP $0.15
Silver: $17.24 UP 10 CENT(S)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1311.00
silver: $17.30
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1313.30 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1307.00
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $6.30
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1315.17
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1308.60
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$6.57
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1308.45
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1308.70
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1309.60
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1310.30
For comex gold:
SEPTEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 54 FOR 5400 OZ (0.1679 TONNES)
For silver:
SEPTEMBER
133 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
665,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5,810 for 29,050,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 19, 2017.

Gold Investment Resuming

Gold has surged dramatically to major breakouts since its usual summer-doldrums lows. That’s naturally rekindled interest in this leading alternative investment, despite the record-high stock markets. Investors are starting to return to gold again to prudently diversify their stock-heavy portfolios. That’s very bullish for gold, as investment capital inflows can persist for months or even years. This shift is most evident in GLD.
The American SPDR Gold Shares is the world’s leading and dominant gold exchange-traded fund. Since its birth way back in November 2004, it has acted as a conduit for the vast pools of stock-market capital to migrate into and out of physical gold bullion. The marginal gold investment demand, and sometimes supply, via GLD can be big and varies wildly. Thus GLD-share trading is often gold’s primary short-term driver.
The definitive arbiter of global gold supply and demand is the venerable World Gold Council. It publishes highly-anticipated quarterly reports called Gold Demand Trends. They offer the best reads available on global gold fundamentals. At first glance, it’s not apparent why gold-ETF demand plays such a massive role in driving gold’s price action. But digging a little deeper makes this crucial-to-understand relationship clearer.
According to the WGC, over the past 5 years from 2012 to 2016 jewelry demand averaged about 54% of overall global gold demand. Total investment demand including physical bars and coins in addition to gold ETFs averaged just 26%. Breaking that category down further into bars and coins separate from ETFs, they weighed in at averages of 28% and -2% of world gold demand respectively over the past 5 years.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on September 15, 2017.

SEPT 13/ANOTHER RAID WITH GOLD DOWN $4.20 AND SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS ON NEWS OF TRUMP’S SUPPOSED TAX REFORM COMING ON SEPT 25/USA THREATENS CHINA WITH REMOVAL OF THE SWIFT PAYMENT SYSTEM IF THEY DO …

GOLD: $1324.40 DOWN $4.20
Silver: $17.79 DOWN 4 CENT(S)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1323.20
silver: $17.78
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1336.44 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1332.55
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $3.89
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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1334.59
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1331.55
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$3.04
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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1332.25
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1332.20
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1327.55
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1328.65
For comex gold:
SEPTEMBER/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 54 FOR 5400 OZ (0.1679 TONNES)
For silver:
SEPTEMBER
264 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
1,320,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4,898 for 24,490,000 oz
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end
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A RATHER LARGE 1031 contracts from 187,176 DOWN TO 188,207 DESPITE THE DROP IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 1 CENT(S). WE HAVE NOW HAD THREE DAYS OF TORMENT AND YET THE SILVER OPEN INTEREST HARDLY BUDGES. THE LONGS ARE REMAINING STOIC AND REFUSE TO GIVE IN TO THE ANTICS OF THE BANKERS.
RESULT: A STEADY RISE IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT PRICE LOSS.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.941 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 134% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 264 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,320,000 OZ OF SILVER
In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A MONSTROUS 6,487 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS in price of gold ($2.95 LOSS YESTERDAY). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 580,606. NO WONDER THAT WE ANOTHER FLASH CRASH AND ANOTHER DAY OF TORMENT FROM THE BANKERS.
Result: A LARGE INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($2.95). THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. NO DOUBT THAT ANOTHER FLASH CRASH WAS ORCHESTRATED TODAY DUE TO THE HUGE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD AND THE STEADY RISE IN OI IN SILVER
we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD:
Tonight , we had a huge change in gold inventory last night: a huge addition of 4.14 tonnes of gold.
Inventory rests tonight: 838.64 tonnes
SLV
Today: no change in inventory.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.088 MILLION OZ

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 13, 2017.

Preliminary Bout Done, Main Event Soon To Come In The Metals

First published on Sun Sep 3 for members: While the metals refused to offer much in the way of a pullback last week, they sure did provide us some nice sideways consolidations. In fact, they held support almost to the penny, and then continued higher on Friday (Sep 1).
And, while everyone seems so skittish to be bullish, the metals are still setting up to leave the station with many disbelievers watching on the sidelines. But, as I noted in my trading room this past week (of (Aug 28-Sep1), ‘In metals, you may get scared, you may freak out, you may lose your mind . . . but as long as support holds, there is no reason to lose your position.’
Allow me to show you what I mean from the example of our trading support and resistance over the prior week using the GDX. Once the GDX broke out, I put out a chart showing the support we then had to hold to keep pressure to the upside (GDX1). Moreover, I even highlighted the next target should support hold. In GDX2, you will see that the market held the top part of the support box, and then continued to our higher target, and even slightly exceeded our target by a few cents. So, in GDX3, I raised our support region to point to where I thought the market will likely pull back after striking our target.
Well, for the next two days the market tested our support region, the initial test shown in GDX4, wherein I added our next target for the smaller degree move. And, as we can see in GDX5, the GDX rallied to our next target on Friday, before beginning another pullback, as expected, during the rest of the day on Friday. And, we basically had the same tracking we did on a micro basis with the GLD all week, as it held our noted support in the 124 region.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 8 September 2017.

A Massive Surge In GLD “Inventory”

Yesterday saw the 2nd-largest one day surge in GLD “inventory” in the past five years. What does this signal, if anything at all?
I think most everyone here knows how I feel about the GLD. It’s a scam. It’s a sham and it’s a fraud. Oh sure, there’s almost certainly some gold held in the HSBC vaults but how much is truly, 100% allocated to just the GLD? Recall the whole charade from back in 2011 when Bob Pissonme of CNBS was allegedly driven in circles for hours before being allowed into the super-secret vaults that house the GLD’s gold: Meh, whatever. There’s no sense in relitigating this nonsense today. What is curious sometimes is the timing of the the Authorised Participant (Bullion Bank) alleged additions and withdrawals. Most recently we noted a stretch of 16 consecutive withdrawals over the period from June 26 through August 7. The total amount of “gold” withdrawn from “inventory” over that time was 66.81 metric tonnes.

This post was published at TF Metals Report on Wednesday, September 6, 2017.

GLD Assets Spike Higher

A late-August surge in gold prices has finally attracted traders back into SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest of the gold bullion ETNs. This week’s chart looks at total assets held in the GLD Trust, which issues or redeems shares as needed in order to keep the share price as close as possible to the net asset value. Those shares are backed by actual gold bullion, and so issuing more shares means more gold in their vaults. Data are available
A number of assets held by GLD tend to fluctuate in step with gold prices.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/31/2017.