Gold’s strong summer may be harbinger of things to come

We are now wrapping up one of the stronger summers in memory at USAGOLD and heading into the strongest time of year seasonally for gold and silver – September through February. Normally the summer months are the quiet part of the year, but 2016 has been an exception. The price of gold is up 9% since the beginning of June and silver over 18%. ETF gold inventories reached highs in July and August not seen since 2009, the year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the launch of the so-called credit crisis. Some see the stronger than usual summer showing for the precious metals markets as a harbinger of things to come.
Credit Suisse, for example, forecasts gold will be trading in the $1475 range in the fourth quarter of 2016, and see $1500 in the early part of 2017. Similarly, Deutsche Bank’s commodity desk believes gold should be trading now in the $1700 range based on the top four central banks’ aggregate balance sheet expansion – some 300% since 2005.
A large grouping of analysts compare stocks now with the market in the 2007-2008 time frame. The primary reason for the deja vu is that all the major indices once again appear to have been elevated in a Fed-induced price bubble. The list of famous names warning of a severe correction is long and grows by the day and with each new record high.
It includes:
Bill Gross (Janus Funds)
Carl Icahn (Icahn Enterprises)
Paul Singer (Elliiott Management)
Robert Schiller (Yale University)
Russ Kostereich (Black Rock)
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates)
Jeff Gundlach (Doubleline Capital)
Jim Cramer (CNBC)
David Stockman (former Budget Director)
Stanley Druckenmiller (Duquesne Capital)
Jacob Rothschild (RIT Partners)
. . . . . just to name a few. Even presidential candidate Donald Trump has joined the chorus of naysayers warning of a financial bubble.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 31 August 2016.

US Presidential Election – How Reliable are the Polls?

Is Clinton’s Lead Over Trump as Large as Advertised?
Once upon a time, political polls tended to be pretty accurate (there were occasional exceptions to this rule, but they were few and far between). Recently there have been a few notable misses though. One that comes to mind is the Brexit referendum. Shortly before the vote, polls indicated the outcome would be a very close one, while betting markets were indicating a solid win of the ‘remain’ vote. The actual result was around 52:48 in favor of ‘leave’, so this was quite a big miss.
Another case that confounded even the most seasoned forecasters was the race for the Republican nomination. See for instance this article by Mish from January, in which he rightly berates famous election forecaster Nate Silver for vastly underestimating Trump’s chances to win. Silver held them to be around 12% to 13% at the time, which turned out to be a miss of truly monumental proportions. He kept missing the mark for many more months to come (essentially until the point in time when Trump had made the transition to ‘inevitable nominee’).
We currently follow press coverage on the presidential election only cursorily, for lack of time, and also because it seems both very superficial and one-sided. The mainstream media bias in this election seems astonishingly blatant. To quote Stefan Molyneux, there is apparently no mud one cannot sling at the orange-haired maniac. We are of course well aware that Donald Trump has an uncanny ability to put his foot into his mouth, but it seems almost as if little else is discussed (skim through a few MSM articles at random and see how much you learn about his policy proposals – good luck).
On the other hand, it is not as if Hillary Clinton were widely considered an angel. The woman has spent decades mired in scandals, from her credulity-stretching career as a cattle futures trader in the 70s, to the Whitewater affair, Travelgate, the harassment of women pointing fingers at her philandering husband, to the recent questions about the Clinton foundation, the gigantic speaking fees she gets for mouthing platitudes at corporate gatherings for 20 minutes a stretch, the e-mail server controversy (and not to forget, her sociopathic streak)… and we’re sure we have left a few things out.
In short, she is just as polarizing a figure as Trump is widely held to be. Then there is the fact that Donald Trump continues to draw huge crowds wherever he goes to speak, a feat Hillary Clinton is not known for. Perhaps this is merely a sign that Trump voters are more energized for their candidate – but that seems quite an important factoid by itself. Remember the Brexit post mortem in this context: the ‘remain’ camp mainly failed because it was unable to create even the slightest bit of excitement for its cause.

This post was published at Acting-Man on August 30, 2016.

Trump Applauds Huma’s Decision To Dump “Pervert Sleaze” Weiner

Almost four years ago, in November 2012, long before Donald Trump was considered a legitimate presidential candidate, the republican tweeted something which in retrospect was quite prophetic: “Pervert alert – serial sexter @RepWeiner is making another step towards a comeback All girls under 18 should block him.”
Pervert alert – serial sexter @RepWeiner is making another step towards a comeback All girls under 18 should block him.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 28, 2012

Today, Trump’s skepticism was justified, when Huma announced her official separation from Weiner, which led to the Republican presidential nominee’s commendation of Abedin’s choice to separate from her husband. ‘Huma is making a very wise decision,” Trump said in a statement. “I know Anthony Weiner well, and she will be far better off without him.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 29, 2016.

Obama To Leave $20 Trillion Debt Crisis For Clinton Or Trump

President Obama is set to leave a massive near $20 trillion debt crisis for his successor – be that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
The U. S. national debt reached $19.5 trillion last week and has been increasing by roughly $1 trillion a year during his Presidency and during the so called ‘recovery’ as the U. S. government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor.
***
During Obama’s presidency, the total national debt has risen from $10.6 trillion to nearly $20 trillion – see Debt Clock here. There is also the not insignificant matter of the between $100 trillion and $150 trillion in unfunded liabilities – for medicare, medicaid and social security.

This post was published at Gold Core on August 29, 2016.

Is Google Censoring Search Results To Protect Hillary?

Just yesterday, we noted how the media coverage of Clinton and Trump’s health has become “outright bizarre” (see “American Electorate Loses As Partisan Media Coverage Of Candidate Health Turns Outright Bizarre“).
In that post, we pointed out the following tweet from a New York Times columnist who was not “enthused” by all the conspiracy theories surrounding Hillary’s health and suggested that “Google should fix this.”


This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 28, 2016.

American Electorate Loses As Partisan Media Coverage Of Candidate Health Turns Outright Bizarre

The recent media frenzy surrounding Clinton and Trump’s health records has accomplished little more than to, once again, expose a “press” that is becoming increasingly partisan with each passing day.
Right-leaning media outlets have spent countless hours reporting on the various health issues experienced by Clinton over the years and pointing to pictures of her falling down on the campaign trail or seemingly zoning out at times as evidence of her frailty. Meanwhile the left-leaning organizations have mostly dismissed the Hillary health concerns as conspiracy theories of right-wing nut jobs.
Like this tweet from a New York Times columnist calling on google to censor commentary on Hillary’s health…
Google should fix this. It shouldn’t give quarter to conspiracy theorists pic.twitter.com/kZLTI4JxlU
– Farhad Manjoo (@fmanjoo) August 21, 2016

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 27, 2016.

It Begins: Barney Frank Tells Yellen Not To Hike Before The Election, “It Risks Destabilizing Markets”

Even as speculation had built up that the “apolitical” Fed would not dare to hike rates ahead of the election to avoid a market swoon, one which would significantly boost Trump’s presidential odds, so far nobody – either on the left or the right – had suggested to Yellen not to hike rates before November 8, for one simple reason: it would immediately crush the scripted narrative of an independent Fed (something which Fed governor Lael Brainard apparently was unaware of when she donated repeatedly to the Hillary Clinton campaign), a narrative which benefits both republicans and democrats who can pretend they are busy in Congress simply by pointing at the all time high in the S&P500, which alas is simply a function of global asset bubbles.
However, that changed earlier today when, just one day after Janet Yellen’s closely watched Jackson Hole speech which may or may not have opened the door to a September rate hike, Barney Frank – one of the architects of the 2010 Dodd-Frank “Wall Street Reform” act – and a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton, told The Hill it would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the election.
Frank advised the Fed board not to risk destabilizing markets and perhaps the broader economy a few weeks before Election Day.’I think it would be a mistake to do it this close to the election,’ Frank told The Hill. ‘It will be interpreted, over interpreted.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 27, 2016.

Introducing America’s Winningest Political Candidate: “Lesser Evil”

Why, I am constantly being asked by my overseas peers, do you Americans have such affection for a creepy old pretender, a political candidate who’s been around forever, and all he has done is have his way with you? Does the ‘me-or-else’ political ultimatum award Lesser Evil license to govern and rape? Whether dressed as Tweedledee or as Tweedledum, Lesser Evil righteously appears to so think; adding one more rosary bid in our march towards the 2016 presidential election… just as it happened in 2012 and, as I tap into my memory, to all other quadrennials before then.
Enter the protagonists this year playing the part of Lesser Evil: Clinton and Trump; both well experienced in deceit, one consistently showing signs of being a truly consummate sociopath, while the other disguises a different strain of the same affliction reasonably well. Both candidates pied-pipering away to their immutable, loyal following which approximate in each case almost a quarter of the electorate; leaving us, the remaining half-plus, trying to determine who of these two becomes our least distrusted psychopath to lead America in all domestic and foreign affairs: our faithful but not so beloved Lesser Evil, of course.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have party memberships which come close to having a reasonable cross-section of the population in the two critical areas that divide the nation: race and economics… not remotely! And that fact alone, like never before in America’s history, poses insurmountable problems in governing, and brings a constant impasse which does not lend itself to negotiation, much less compromise. It also adds serious impediments in selecting, or compromisingly-accepting, leadership that can be respected, if not accepted, by a society with a true common ground.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 26, 2016.

“The Great Unraveling” – Hilsenrath Slams The Fed: “Years Of Fed Missteps” Foster US Populism, Disillusion

For years we have argued that the main reasons for rising social anger, populist sentiment, and general disillusion with the US economy boils down to one thing: the Federal Reserve, which as we have argued since 2009, has approached the crisis aftermath in a wrong way, generated unprecedented wealth inequality through its monetary policy favoring a tiny fraction of the population – those invested in risk assets – and instead of reflating another debt bubble, should have allowed the system to undergo a debt purge and start afresh.
For this we have been branded perpetual conspiracy theorists and permabears.
Moments ago, none other than the WSJ’s Fed “whisperer”, Jon Hilsenrath admitted these allegations have been correct in an article titled “Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington“, and which as the WSJ notes “helps explain one of the US’s most unpredictable, populist political years.”
In other words, it is the Fed’s policies that have led to the current failed economic regime (as noted again yesterday by Citi’s Matt Kingand today by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh), and which are responsible for the rise of such candidates as Donald Trump. Which, incidentally, is also something we have predicted over the years would happen. As such we are delighted that one of the most popular establishment Fed watchers now agrees with our assessment.
This is what Hilsenrath writes:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2016.

Legend Says Forget The Pullback – Gold Is Headed To $1,600 And Here Is The Big Surprise From China!

As we approach the end of August in what has been a wild summer of trading in the gold and silver markets, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece about central banks heading toward trouble as gold is headed to $1,600 but here is the big surprise from China.
Gold’s Surge To $1,600
By John Ing, Maison Placements
August 25 (King World News) – In the ultimate reality show, America’s political scene has become a reality drama and to no surprise, reality TV star Donald Trump has capitalized on the public frustration, however his solution, is to build a wall. Ironically, Mr. Trump is viewed as the candidate representing change and Hillary Clinton does not. Despite behind in the polls, Mr. Trump may still win. Although if he can’t build a ‘coalition of the willing’ within his own party, how is he going to unify a divided America?
Brexit illustrated that anger and the fickleness for change can alter the status quo, no matter the economic cost. Life here seems to be mimicking art. Indeed while it was outlandish six months ago to expect Mr. Trump to win the nomination of his party, here he is in a fight to become president of the greatest country in the world. And along the way there have been accusations that Mr. Trump and his buddy Russian President Vladimir Putin are intertwined as in a John le Carr novel. We just don’t know who’s a bad guy or who’s a good guy.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on August 25, 2016.

Here’s Why Existing Home Sales Are In Unsustainable Path

The NAR reported a decline of 3.2% in existing home sales in July. This was the seasonally adjusted fudgepack number. It prompted the Dow Jones flagship Wall Street Journal to trumpet:
U. S. Existing Home Sales Fall for First Time Since February
I prefer to look at the actual data, using the annual rate of change as the basis for comparison. To see whether momentum is slowing or growing, we can compare the annual growth rate of the current month to recent past months. Actual sales in July fell by 6.7% year to year.
So far, so good.
However, there were calender factors involved. July 2015 had 22 business days available for closings versus only 20 in July of this year. While some of those closings would still have been squeezed into last month toward the end of the month, some adjustment to the number would be necessary. On that basis it’s likely that the number of closings on a rolling 4 week or 31 day basis would not have been materially different this year versus last year. Compared with a year to year change of 1.7% in June, it appears that the growth in sales volume has merely stalled, not plunged.
That is supported by the June year to year contract data, which the NAR calls ‘pending home sales.’ Contracts were flat in June. That would normally mean flat growth in closings in the ensuing month.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Lee Adler ‘ August 24, 2016.

Trump Slams Clinton Foundation As “Most Corrupt Enterprise In Political History” After Latest Donor Revelations

Yesterday’s report that more than half, or at least 85 of 154 people from private interests who met or spoke to Hillary Clinton while she led the State Department, donated at least $156 million to her family charity or pledged commitments with at least 16 foreign governments donating as much as $170 million, has become the latest goldmine for Donald Trump and Republicans who finally have a break in the anti-Trump news cycle to pounce on.
“It is now clear that the Clinton Foundation is the most corrupt enterprise in political history,” Trump said in a statement, reiterating a claim he made earlier in the week. “We’ve now learned that a majority of the non-government people she met with as secretary of state gave money to the corrupt Clinton Foundation. … It was wrong then, and it is wrong now — and the foundation must be shut down immediately.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 24, 2016.

Gerald Celente Predicts Trump Wins White House

The following video was published by Greg Hunter on Aug 23, 2016
On the 2016 election, a surprising turn around for Trump. Trends forecaster Gerald Celente explains, ‘We now forecast Trump will win. First, we had Clinton. Trump is his own worst enemy. . . . What’s going to determine the election, we believe, is the debates. These debates will determine it more than they did with Kennedy and Nixon. You are going to see viewer turnout on this break records, maybe even Super Bowl records. It’s going to come down to the debates if Trump doesn’t destroy himself and/or there is not a wild card event. In the absence of that, Trump has a shot at winning this.’

Media Worried Too Many Americans Will Question Legitimacy Of 2016 Election, Blame Trump

2016 is the year many, many Americans began to question whether or not our elections, and to a lesser extent, our democracy (insert ‘it’s a constitutional republic, big difference!’ here) are rigged. As I’ve argued many times in the past year, there is plenty of evidence suggesting these skeptical Americans are, indeed, onto something with their suspicions.
But the corporate media has come out in defense of America’s ‘democracy’ – and political elites are defending the system, too. In the wake of Trump’s recent rhetoric regarding the ‘rigged’ system, the ruling class of the United States is peddling the fiction that somehow Trump’s irresponsible sensationalism is solely to blame for the newfound feelings of illegitimacy plaguing our elections.
Take, for example, Monday’s POLITICO piece entitled ‘What if Trump won’t accept defeat?’:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 23, 2016.

Whirled Politics: Would you rather be Trumped or Pillaried?

I’ve never seen anything so surreal as the United States’ current political circus of unelectable and undelectable candidates offered as each party’s top of the crop. I can’t stop wondering if the Trump is Clinton’s decoy, gathering all the Republiducks into one place so the Democats can slaughter them. Yet, as surely as Trump looks like he’s trying to throw the election, Hillary looks like she’s going to fall over unconscious from a brain aneurysm on the dawn of election day … or on midnight after the votes are in and counted, depending on which conspiracy you like best.
Equally weird is the certain fact that the Democrat’s Chosen One was assured her party’s worship through inside engineering. I’m not surprised such maneuvering happens inside political parties but that, after it came fully into the open, Hillary seems more likely to win.
That she was able to take the Democrat who was most to blame (and who resigned because of it) and raise her quite publicly and immediately to the top of her campaign goes to show how voters believe this is just the way party politics works all the time. Hillary made that move openly, knowing that most people in her party couldn’t care less about such things. She even got a big bump in popularity after the move. That’s how little such shenanigans mattered to her supporters.
The Trump – What a card!
That the irony is everywhere is unsettling. If I were writing a novel, I couldn’t pick a better name for an unlikable, self-aggrandizing, megalomaniac presidential candidate than ‘Trump.’ He has the sole virtue of sounding anti-establishment at a time when people crave a strongman who can save the nation from its own craven greed now that it has lived for decades above its means.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 23 August 2016.

Jeff Gundlach Explains Why He Is Now “100% Net Short”

In his latest interview on RealVision conducted last Friday, Doubleline’s Jeff Gundlach recapped the major points of his relatively bearish worldview, which are increasingly prioritizing political risk, with the ‘T-word’ now a factor for stocks, as the election gets closer and the potential for a President Trump.
Gundlach has been calling a Trump victory since the start and he outlines the likely market impact, as well as an economic bounce from the fiscal stimulus and the bond market shenanigans that might follow. With a long term need for l governments to really tackle the global debt problem against the backdrop of entitlement, the only play for serious investors here is defensive and Gundlach is more focused on where he can make money and for that he has the gold miners in his sights.
Here is a brief summary of his key points:
Trump is elected, leading to more debt, and an even greater fiscal stimulus: “I think Trump’s going to win largely because there are many, many– people have used the Brexit analogy and I think it’s apt. Where people were almost afraid to say that they were for Brexit and then they ended up voting for it… Trump is the gateway to fiscal stimulus. He’s absolutely promising to build roads and airports and walls, and I have observed that one thing I think we all know is that Mr. Trump is pretty comfortable with debt.” Negative interest rates damage the real economy as they require higher savings, and are deflationary: “You want to fight deflation with deflation. But they don’t seem to understand that you do not increase consumption with negative interest rates, at least for a significant fraction of the population. You increase savings, and you necessitate savings because the 60-year-old man that wants to retire at age 70– maybe an old school thought– I need to save a million dollars and maybe I can make 5%, $50,000 a year. Little social security if I get it. I can get by.” On the downside risk return skew in holding Treasuries, which may go from 1.25% to 1.00%, versus making 10% on gold miners: “If you go 1% on Treasuries, you’ll make about three points on the 10-year. That happens over the course of a year, you make 4.3%. I just think there’s a lot of ways of higher probability of making 5% or 6% through rank speculations on volatile asset classes. Like at this point, I would even add gold miners. I actually said this in an interview with Barron’s on June 27, I think it was.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 22, 2016.

EU Globalists are About to have their Doors KICKED Down!

A Very Bad Year for Globalism
2016 is one of the worst years for the globalist agenda in decades. Think about it: first Trump wrecked most of their US candidates, then Brexit tore the EU plutocrats a new orifice, and there’s still over 4 months left to go!
Every time that globalism has been defeated, it has been at the hands of nationalist and populist revolts among the ‘peasantry’, and another such defeat is now looming for them in Europe, and they know it! In today’s article I’ll tell you what will likely happen in their next defeat, and what’s more, I’ll give you the date on which it will occur.

This post was published at The Wealth Watchman on AUGUST 22, 2016.

“Regretful” Trump Reaches Out To Latino Leaders: “No, I Am Not Flip-Flopping”

Donald Trump exclaimed “I’m not flip-flopping on immigration, we want to come up with a really fair but firm answer,” this morning after meeting with his newly announced Hispanic advisory council this weekend in an effort to figure out a ‘humane and efficient’ manner to deal with immigrants in the country illegally.
It appears Trump’s pivot at the end of last week – showing a softer, seemingly apologetic “regretful” side – is continuing, having told black Americans “what have you got to lose”…
Black Americans – who appear hell bent on electing four more years of Obamanomics – have seen black income inequality soar and black youth unemployment unchanged since the first black president came to office…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 22, 2016.

“It’s Not Some Barbarous Relic” – Trump Adviser Urges Return To Gold Standard

Q&A with Dr. Judy Shelton, the only female economist advising the Trump campaign.
Donald Trump is no policy wonk.
He is pitching himself as the best man for the presidency based on his track record as businessman, and his ability to surround himself with the ‘best’ people – not on his knack for writing white papers. This, of course, means that it is important for voters to understand whom he is surrounding himself with, and what sort of ideas they hold.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 21, 2016.