How Will Trump, Clinton and This Contentious Election Season Impact Gold?

This election season is shaping up to be an extremely contentious one, with emotions running high, rigged primaries, pending lawsuits, threats of violence and deep-rooted hatred between supporters of Trump versus Clinton. The stock market looks like another massive bubble waiting to burst and any number of black swan events could be the needle that finally the bubble and causes the phony recovery to come tumbling down.
In today’s article, we take a look at how the election season could impact your investments and which asset classes stand to benefit the most. We believe it is important to be positioned correctly well ahead of November and the chaos that could erupt following the Presidential election.

This post was published at GoldStockBull on August 10th, 2016.

Citi Lays Out The “Black Swans” That Donald Trump Would Unleash If He Becomes President

With less than 90 days left until the presidential election, Citi’s Dana Paterson writes that the “election risks clock starts now.” Here is how Citi previews the upcoming US election which “may generate extremely high uncertainty that likely will impose a significant drag on economic growth.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 11, 2016.

Brace Yourselves, America: The Next Huge Housing Bailout Could Be Coming

The failures of government intervention in the economy have made headlines yet again. Recent stress tests by theFederal Housing Finance Agency found something sinister brewing under the surface at notorious mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The results show that these puppet companies could need up to a $126 billion bailout if the economy continues to deteriorate.
That’s right – the two companies that were taken over by the government and that sucked $187 billion from the treasury could be entitled to more taxpayer money. The toxic home loans bought during the last crisis coupled with a lack of liquidity have suddenly become serious risk factors. The so-called ‘recovery’ that has been trumpeted for years by countless politicians and economists is falling apart in plain view. The media will do just about anything to assure the public that this is all isolated and overblown, but the canary in the coal mine has just dropped dead.
The tests ran a scenario eerily similar to warnings we’ve heard about what the economic future might hold:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 11, 2016.

How Donald Trump Can Win In A Landslide

I have worked with and for people like Donald Trump.
You see, such people have minds that move very fast through mountains of information and are satisfied if they capture about the most relevant 20% of the key points that convey 80% of the story. They then have no problem telling you how much they know about the subject, while messing up on the 80% of the points that tell only 20% of the story.
Their minds can move faster than their mouths at times; while delivering a message to an audience, they might forget about the specific angle that should be taken with that audience – not that the message is different, but that different points need be emphasized or minimized.
They will move to tangential subjects if asked – even if not as prepared on these; they do this for all of the aforementioned reasons, plus they believe they are the smartest person in the room.
Such people can be great successes at business – the most successful people focus on the 20% that give 80% of the value; handling the rest is why they hire others.
My advice to such people is always: stay on point. If Trump sticks to the following points, he will win the election and win it in a landslide. In each case, Trump’s message – when he stays on point – resonates with many Americans.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 11, 2016.

The More the Establishment Freaks Out Over Trump, the More Attractive He Becomes

Trump is attractive precisely because the Establishment fears and loathes him because 1) they didn’t pick him and 2) he might upset the neoconservative Empire that the Establishment elites view as their global entitlement. The Establishment is freaking out about Donald Trump for one reason: they didn’t pick him. The Establishment is freaking out because the natural order of things is that we pick the presidential candidates and we run the country to serve ourselves, i.e. the financial-political elites. Donald Trump’s candidacy upsets this neofeudal natural order, and thus he (and everyone who supports him) is anathema to the Establishment, heretics who must be silenced, cowed, marginalized, mocked and ultimately put back in their place as subservient debt-serfs.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2016.

The Choice of Two Evils

The elections are just insane. There is not much of a choice and nobody who really knows anything about anything is willing to stand for election. Those with experience will take a cabinet job for the sole perk of being able to sell their stock all tax-free and then resign in two years. Not bad. You work in Washington for two years and save a few billion in taxes for being Secretary of the Treasury while ensuring the game is rigged for your return.
From a governmental perspective, we are simply in the crash and burn mode. Hillary will probably be far worse for the banks will rule the day and she will sign all the tax increases the Democrats desire. Trump would not be able to prevent anything collapsing, but might keep the bankers in check.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 11, 2016.

How Long Can Economic Reality Be Ignored? – Paul Craig Roberts

Trump and Hitlery have come out with the obligatory ‘economic plans.’ Neither them nor their advisors, have any idea about what really needs to be done, but this is of no concern to the media.
The presstitutes operate according to ‘pay and say.’ They say what they are paid to say and that is whatever serves the corporations and the government. This means that the presstitutes like Hitlery’s economic plan and do not like Trump’s.
Yesterday I listened to the NPR presstitutes say how Trump pretends to be in favor of free trade but really is against it, because he is against all the free trade agreements such as NAFTA, the Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic partnerships. The presstitutes don’t know that these are not trade agreements. NAFTA is a ‘give away American jobs’ agreement, and the so-called partnerships give away the sovereignty of countries in order to award global corporations immunity from laws.
As I have reported on many occasions, the Oligarchs’ government lies to us about everything, including economic statistics. For example, we are told that we have been enjoying an economic recovery since June, 2009, that we are more or less at full emploment with an unemployment rate of 5% or less, and that there is no inflation. We are told this despite the facts that the ‘recovery’ is based on the under-reporting of the inflation rate, the unemployment rate is 23%, and inflation is high.

This post was published at Paul Craig Roberts on August 10, 2016.

Trump as President Means a $500 Jump in Gold Prices

Regardless of their political leanings, serious buyers of gold and investors in all precious metals understand these are very unusual times. This reality is driving a great deal of discussion, particularly in a post-Brexit world.
Many respected analysts and pundits were proved wrong about the possibility of a successful leave vote coming out of the Brexit referendum. As a result, they are now particularly focused on trying to access the ultimate victor in the U. S. elections and what such an outcome will mean to financial markets generally, and gold specifically.
Of course, from the perspective of a long-term investor in gold, it is difficult, yet essential, to separate one’s political view from market factors that will determine gold prices. Regardless of those personal views, it is important to understand how the financial world will view the different outcomes and plan accordingly.
Considering the possible election of Donald Trump in November, there is a decidedly alarmist tint to many predictions. For example, a leading analyst at Dutch bank ABN AMRO sees gold hitting $1,850 or more under a presidency of The Donald. While she discounts that probability, Georgette Boehle of Amro opines, ‘…his rhetoric and possible policy actions could create domestic and international uncertainty at best, and upheaval at worst.’
However, even this pessimistic view of a Republican victory is not offset by a more positive opinion about a Clinton victory. Boehle sees a positive turn for gold regardless, noting the probability of greater inflation, a worsening currency situation, and inevitable negative interest rates.

This post was published at TruthinGold on August 10, 2016.

Gold & Silver Surge, USD Purge As Productivity Plunge Trumps Payrolls Pandemonium

It appears dismal productivity trumps euphoric payrolls data…
Silver has erased payrolls losses…
Gold is catching up…
Copper (and palladium at one year high as stronger Chinese car sales added to concerns over insufficient supply of the commodity used to reduce pollution from vehicles) are also surging…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 10, 2016.

Marc Faber Issues A Stunning Warning That A Gigantic 50 Percent Stock Market Crash Could Be Coming

Are we about to witness one of the largest stock market crashes in U. S. history? Swiss investor Marc Faber is the publisher of the ‘Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’, and he has been a regular guest on CNBC for years. And even though U. S. stocks have been setting new record high after new record high in recent weeks, he is warning that a massive stock market crash is in our very near future. According to Faber, we could ‘easily’ see the S&P 500 plunge all the way down to 1,100. As I sit here writing this article, the S&P 500 is sitting at 2,181.74, so that would be a drop of cataclysmic proportions. The following is an excerpt from a CNBC article that discussed the remarks that Faber made on their network on Monday…
The notoriously bearish Marc Faber is doubling down on his dire market view.
The editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said Monday on CNBC’s ‘Trading Nation’ that stocks are likely to endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.
‘I think we can easily give back five years of capital gains, which would take the market down to around 1,100,’ Faber said, referring to a level 50 percent below Monday’s closing on theS&P 500.
Of course Faber is far from alone in believing that the market is heading for hard times. Just recently, I wrote about how legendary investor Jeffrey Gundlach is warning that ‘stocks should be down massively’ and that he believes this is the time to ‘sell everything’.
And on Tuesday, Donald Trump told Fox News that the stock market is ‘a big bubble’…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on August 9th, 2016.

Is The Donald A Dollar Risk?

The U. S. dollar will weaken sharply if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore. But it’s less clear if the sell-off has legs beyond his potential inauguration in January.
Given some of the pronouncements made during his campaign to date, markets will rightly be concerned about the direction of Trump’s policy. But, without taking a view on whether he actually intends to preside as indicated, the reality is that he’ll be severely constrained in his ability to dictate policy.
Recent polls show that a Trump victory isn’t the base case. But, with three months until the election, its worth evaluating what could be the initial impact of a Trump victory.
There’s a valid risk that the credibility of the greenback as the world’s reserve currency may be undermined amid fears that Trump may rip-up or ignore previous treaties and trade agreements.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 9, 2016.

Gold Stocks Versus Bullion: Inflation 101

Gold price bulls and bears may all be getting a bit frustrated now, as gold refuses to follow their predicted paths, and simply meanders sideways. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Gold is well-supported in the current price zone. Institutions are buyers on minor dips, but the next major move to the upside is unlikely to happen without a significant fundamental catalyst. Janet Yellen makes an important speech at Jackson Hole later this month. For decades, I’ve viewed the August 7th – October 31st time period as US stock market ‘crash season’. If Janet causes the stock market to stumble with stronger words about a possible rate hike in September, that could quickly send gold towards my $1432 target. The US election, French election, and an Italian referendum are also potential price drivers. The current global macro situation is a good one for gold price enthusiasts, but in terms of time a bit of patience is required. Please click here now. Goldman’s view of what Donald Trump brings to the table (more government spending) may not sit well with members of his fan club, but the entitlements funding nightmare is something that neither US candidate seems to want to address with any degree of seriousness. It’s impossible to significantly reduce government spending’s horrifying drag on the US economy without facing that entitlements nightmare directly, and taking the brutal action needed to cut the fat. So, I’ve categorically stated that the election of Hillary Clinton is good news for gold, and the election of Donald Trump is great news for gold. In France, ongoing terrorist attacks have destroyed Hollande’s chances of getting elected again, and the opposition nomination takes place in November. Hollande is one of the most prolific spenders in the Western world, and whoever takes over his position takes over what is really an economic disaster zone.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 August 2016.

Trump Vows To “Jump Start” Economy With “Tax Revolution”; Is Interrupted At Least 14 Times

Donald Trump says his economic plan represents "biggest tax revolution" since Reagan era — ABC News (@ABC) August 8, 2016

In his first comprehensive speech laying out his vision for the US economy, Donald Trump presented a tax-slashing agenda which would seek to cut regulations, while blaming Hillary Clinton for America’s economic woes in a highly touted address Monday at the Detroit Economic Club. ‘Americanism, not globalism, will be our new credo,’ Trump declared, saying his plan represents the “biggest tax revolution” since the Reagan era. “I want to jump-start America,’ the GOP presidential nominee added in another line that brought both applause and boos from the crowd.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 8, 2016.

ZZZZZZZZZZZ….

Wake the fuck up! Today we turn from the sordid dumbshow of Election 2016 to the parlous mysteries of finance and economics behind our sick politics. Most of the commentary in the mainstream special needs news media is based on the incorrect notion that the current disposition of things is sure to continue and therefore all we have to do is manage the familiar dynamics of the operating system in place. For instance, Grand Vizier Paul Krugman in today’s New York Times pimping for the US to issue ever-greater debt to repair US infrastructure. Does it seem like a sound idea? Borrow tons more money to get American running gear back in order so we can return to a growth economy. (There’s even a Trumpian gloss to it.)
Here’s the catch: the ‘growth economy’ of which they chatter is done. You can stick a fork in it. The techno-industrial fantasia is drawing to a close. We are heading into a long term contraction of activity, productivity, and population and the salient question is how disorderly will the long emergency of the journey be to that new disposition of things?
The wish to keep all our rackets running is understandable. They have provided a lot of comfort, convenience, and luxury. But we are no longer in Alexander Hamilton’s world of cornucopian American abundance, just needing to borrow a little from the future to get at the gargantuan riches of a wilderness empire. We’ve been there and done that, and our present-day techno-narcissistic wish to replace all that spent material abundance with a Pokemon Go virtual reality economy is sure to lead to epochal disenchantment.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 8, 2016.

Ex-CIA, Ex-Goldman, Anti-Trump Republican Launches Independent Presidential Bid

On the day that Trump is set to unveil his economic plan, as Hillary’s post-convention bounce fades in the polls, Buzzfeed’s McKay Coppins reports that Evan McMullin – a CIA veteran and Goldman Sachs alum – is preparing to launch an indepedent presidential campaign. Several key players in GOP’s anti-Trump movement are behind thisstunt effort…
Opposing @realDonaldTrump is about putting principle over power, a virtue some in Washington are too quick to abandon. #NeverTrump
— Evan McMullin (@Evan_McMullin) May 7, 2016

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 8, 2016.

Laurence Kotlikoff for President

The Next President’s Debt Burden
According to the Department of Commerce, U. S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016. This, unfortunately, isn’t indicative of the sort of robust economic activity that will grow the economy out of debt. In fact, as growth is stagnating, deficits are increasing.
***
The U. S. fiscal year 2015 budget deficit was about $439 billion. For fiscal year 2016, the federal government is projected to run a deficit of $616 billion. The upsurge, of roughly $177 billion, amounts to about a 40 percent deficit increase from 2015 to 2016.
Presently, the federal debt is well over 100 percent of GDP. Obviously, 1.2 percent GDP growth is wholly inadequate to shrink the debt. To the contrary, 1.2 percent GDP growth in the face of a projected $616 billion deficit will further increase the debt as a percentage of GDP.
As far as we can tell, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump is talking about the U. S. debt problem. What’s more, they’re economic platforms both include massive spending programs. The difference, of course, will be made up with debt. But how much debt can the next president really add?
George W. Bush doubled the federal debt from $5 trillion to $10 trillion. Barack Obama’s on target to double the federal debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion. It is unlikely the next president will be able to double the debt from $20 trillion to $40 trillion.

This post was published at Acting-Man on August 8, 2016.

The Most Cynical Take On Friday’s Jobs Number: “The Fed Will Not Hike In September With Trump In The Race”: Citi

If traders have a feeling that there is a prevailing sense of blase disenchantment involving not only US macro data but the overall market, you are not alone. Here is arguably the best, and thus most cynical take, of Friday’s impressive seasonal adjustment factor payrolls report, from Citi’s Brent Donnelly:
Summer apathy and generally high frustration levels related to poor returns, extreme bearishness and existential questions around the death of price discovery due to central bank meddling.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 7, 2016.

“Sell Everything”… But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?

Many of the smartest investors out there hate stocks. Since May, we’ve heard negative equity calls from Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross. Wall Street lore says ‘Never argue about markets with a guy who is much richer than you’. So we’ll take the discussion in a different direction: what do they know?
Successful investors are always more plugged in than the market as a whole – hence their success. And while we can only guess at the lynchpins of their negative take on stocks, we do have some idea of how significant they must be. For example, in 2016 the S&P 500 is up 5.9% on a price basis after 1) the Brexit ‘Leave’ vote, 2) dramatically disappointing Q1 and Q2 U. S. GDP, 3) a correction of 20% in oil prices, 4) a Fed that has incorrectly calibrated its public stance on monetary policy, 5) Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president, and 6) the U. S. 10 Year Treasury at near record low yields.
None of that has been enough to spook U. S. equity markets. So whatever the big boys think they know, it must be really bad. But what is it, and why is it so hidden from view?
‘Someone is getting this information before you.’ If you’ve ever worked at a hedge fund, you know this is the worst thing you can hear. It means you are behind the curve, providing yesterday’s news into an investment process meant to predict the future. ‘Titanic sinks!’ or ‘man lands on the moon!’ are the more playful retorts you’ll get from co-workers. But it all means the same thing: up your game, or get a white box from the mail room.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 7, 2016.

DONALD TRUMP WARNS OF ‘VERY SCARY SCENARIOS’ FOR STOCKS AHEAD

I’m not sure Trump is aware of this Jubilee year, but he certainly understands that the stock market is at a highly dangerous level.
‘Interest rates are artificially low,’ Trump told Fox in an interview, HERE. ‘The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.’
That is absolutely true and unheard of to be acknowledged by a front-running Presidential candidate.
He then warned of ‘very scary scenarios’ ahead for investors.
It’s an obvious-enough warning. Central bankers continue to build a pyramid of debt by printing trillions in aggregate. Since 2008 and the beginning of the current slump/depression, they’ve printed well over $50 trillion. The money hasn’t helped the economy… in fact it has made it worse. But it’s sent stocks and bonds into the stratosphere.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on AUGUST 5, 2016.