A point BOE Governor Mark Carney made recently may be the biggest cog in the European Union’s wheel (or is it second biggest? Read on). That is, derivatives clearing. It’s one of the few areas where Brussels stands to lose much more than London, but it’s a big one. And Carney puts a giant question mark behind the EU’s preparedness.
Carney Reveals Europe’s Potential Achilles Heel in Brexit Talks
Carney explained why Europe’s financial sector is more at risk than the UK from a ‘hard’ or ‘no-deal’ Brexit. [..] When asked does the European Council ‘get it’ in terms of potential shocks to financial stability, Carney diplomatically commented that ‘a learning process is underway.’ Having sounded alarm bells about clearing in his last Mansion House speech, he noted ‘These costs of fragmenting clearing, particularly clearing of interest rate swaps, would be born principally by the European real economy and they are considerable.’
Calling into question the continuity of tens of thousands of derivative contracts , he stated that it was ‘pretty clear they will no longer be valid’, that this ‘could only be solved by both sides’ and has been ‘underappreciated’ by Europe . Carney had a snipe at Europe for its lack of preparation ‘We are prepared as we should be for the possibility of a hard exit without any transition…there has been much less of that done in the European Union.’
In Carneys view ‘It’s in the interest of the EU 27 to have a transition agreement. Also, in my judgement given the scale of the issues as they affect the EU 27, that there will ultimately be a transition agreement. There is a very limited amount of time between now and the end of March 2019 to transition large, complex institutions and activities…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 19, 2017.