• Tag Archives Consumer Confidence
  • Doug Noland: Arms Race

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Credit Bubble Bulletin . To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Bloomberg: ‘Treasuries Surge as December Hike Odds Drop After CPI Miss.’ Year-over-year CPI was up 2.2% in September, with consumer inflation above 2% y-o-y for six of the past 10 months. The Producer Price Index gained 2.6% y-o-y in September. Yet, apparently, the focus will remain on core CPI (along with core personal consumption expenditure inflation) that, up 1.7% y-o-y, missed estimates by one tenth and remained below 2% for the sixth straight month. Notably – analytically if not in the markets – the preliminary October reading of University of Michigan Consumer Confidence jumped six points to the high since January 2004. Or taking a slightly different view, Consumer Confidence has been stronger for only one month in the past 17 years. Current Conditions rose to the highest level since November 2000.
    Data notwithstanding, from Bloomberg: ‘Bond Shorts Experience the Agony of Defeat Yet Again.’ Ten-year Treasury yields declined nine bps this week to 2.27%, though I’m not sure this qualifies as a ‘defeat.’ In stark contrast to the fanatical gathering on the opposing side of the field, not a single central banker was spotted on the bond bears’ sideline.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Doug Noland ‘ October 14, 2017.


  • S&P Surges To Longest Record-High Streak In 20 Years As Dollar Spikes

    Despite a slump in consumer confidence, stocks just keep on chugging higher…
    Another Day, Another Record High – S&P up 8 days in a row (longest win streak in 4 years) and 6 record highs in a row (longest streak since 1997) and today was the best day in a month…
    VIX traded as low as 9.13 today…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 5, 2017.


  • Home-Buying Hope Crashes To 5-Year Low, Drags Consumer Confidence Lower

    Americans’ confidence in the economy has waned slightly following Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused more than $100 billion in damage, pushed up gas prices and spurred a jump in unemployment filings.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 29, 2017.


  • UMich Consumer Confidence Slides On Loss Of ‘Hope’

    University of Michigan’s headline consumer confidence index slipped lower in Septemeber (prelim) from 96.8 to 95.3 driven by a tumble in ‘expectations’ that offset a burst in ‘current conditions’ to its highest since Nov 2000!
    As Bloomberg reports, the figures are the first to broadly capture the effects of Harvey and Irma, which caused more than $100 billion in damage and sparked a jump in claims for unemployment benefits. According to the survey, 9 percent of respondents spontaneously said the storms would hurt the economy. The sentiment index was unchanged among consumers who didn’t mention the storms.
    Across all interviews in early September, 9% spontaneously mentioned concerns that Harvey, Irma, or both, would have a negative impact on the overall economy.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.


  • British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars

    – British people suddenly stopped buying cars
    – Massive debt including car loans, very low household savings
    – Brexit and decline in sterling and consumer confidence impacts
    – New cars being bought on PCP by people who could not normally afford them
    – UK car business has ‘exactly the same problems’ as the mortgage market 10 years ago, according to Morgan Stanley
    – Bank of England is investigating to make sure UK banks are not overly exposed…
    – Prudent British people buying gold with cash, not cars with debt
    by Jim Edwards, Business Insider UK
    ***
    British people have suddenly stopped buying cars.
    It’s not clear why. But a number of anti-car trends have hit Britain simultaneously – such as the rise of Uber and a decline in household savings – driving down car sales.
    The chart above of total car sales both old and new, from Barclays, says it all. On this chart, the grey-black line is the crucial one. The blue line (online sales) represents only a small number of purchases. Barclays

    This post was published at Gold Core on September 12, 2017.


  • Deflation and the Markets; are deflationary forces here to stay

    Machines are worshipped because they are beautiful and valued because they confer power; they are hated because they are hideous and loathed because they impose slavery. Bertrand Russell
    Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U. S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop. While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs. As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come.
    Machines are faster, cheaper and don’t complain; at least not yet. So from a cost cutting and efficiency perspective, there is no reason to stick with humans. This, in turn, will continue to fuel the wage deflation trend. Sal Guatieri an Economist at the Bank of Montreal in a report titled ‘Wage Against the Machine,’ states that automation is responsible for weak wage growth.
    ‘It’s unlikely that insecurities from the Great Recession are still weighing, given high levels of consumer confidence,’ he wrote. ‘However, automation could be a longer-lasting influence on worker anxieties and wages. If so, wages could remain low for a while, restraining inflation and interest rates.’
    Guatieri goes on to state that ‘The defining feature of a job at risk from automation is repetition’. This puts a lot of jobs at risk, many of which fall under the so-called highly skilled category today; for example, Accountants, Lawyers, Radiologists, X-Ray technician, etc.
    North American business order record number of robots
    In 2016, they order 35,000 robots, 10% more than in 2015. But that is nothing compared to China, which ordered 69,000 robots in 2016, South Korea ordered 38,000 and Japan for its small size ordered 35,000 robots. This proves that jobs are not going overseas but are being taken over by machines. Nothing will stop this trend; a trend in motion is unstoppable.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 8 September 2017.


  • Indicators Are All Over The Place Warning That The Economy Is About To Implode – Episode 1344a

    The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 30, 2017
    UMich consumer confidence implodes and it is the lowest since before the elections. Another indicator that we are in a recession, Americans are saving the least amount of money and this is a sign that we saw leading up to the last two recessions. The US government is working their magic they are going back and revising the GDP data. BofA is warning that the market is cracking and falling apart. The sales of RV’s is booming, this indicator occurred during the last couple of recessions.


  • UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election As Trumphoria Fades

    Despite a rebound in business survey hope, a number of consumer confidence measures have been tracking lower in recent months as Trumphoria fades. July’s final UMich consumer confidence data confirms this trend printing at 93.4 – the lowest since Oct 2016. While current conditions rose to the highest since July 2005, the biggest driver of the overall decline was a tumble in the ‘expectations’ index.
    Although a slight improvement on the early month preliminary print, the trend remains lower…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 28, 2017.


  • IMF Sharply Lowers US Growth Forecasts As Hopes For Fiscal Boost Fade

    Bullish traders who insist that US economic fundamentals remain rock-solid despite tepid growth, inflation and other signs the postelection ‘Trump bump’ in consumer confidence is already beginning to fade should take a look at the International Monetary Fund’s latest batch of quarterly forecasts for global growth.
    The fund left its all-world forecasts for 2017 and 2018 unchanged from its previous quarterly update, which was released in April: It anticipates 3.5% and 3.6% growth, respectively.
    However, those numbers mask a sharp decline in the fund’s forecasts for US growth, which have been lowered sharply to reflect expectations that President Donald Trump’s promised fiscal expansion package likely won’t arrive until next year, according to a report published by the IMF. In an update that shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been following US macro data since the start of the year, the fund revised its forecasts for 2017 and 2018 down 0.2% to 2.1% and 0.4% to 2.1%. It continues to expect the US economy to expand by 1.6% in 2016.
    The fund said its decision to lower US growth forecasts reflects in part the weak growth experienced during the first quarter. But what it calls the ‘major factor’ behind the revision, especially for 2018, is the assumption that ‘fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of U. S. fiscal policy changes. Market expectations of fiscal stimulus have also receded.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 24, 2017.


  • UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election As ‘Hope’ Disappears

    Following the biggest 2-week plunge in Bloomberg’s index of economic comfort in 6 years, UMich reports a big disappointment in the preliminary print for June. At 93.1 (below the 95.0 expectation), this is the weakest print since Oct 2016 – before the election.

    UMich point sout that overall, the recent data follow the same pattern repeatedly recorded around past cyclical peaks: expectations start to post significant declines while assessments of current economic conditions continue to reach new peaks. To be sure, the data do not suggest an impending recession. Rather, the data indicate that hopes for a prolonged period of 3% GDP growth sparked by Trump’s victory have largely vanished, aside from a temporary snap back expected in the 2nd quarter. The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2% GDP growth in 2017.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.


  • US Consumer Comfort Still Can’t Break The 50 Barrier

    Talk about a barrier option!
    US consumer comfort still hasn’t broken the 50 barrier which was last achieved in November 2006.
    The reason? Real median household income peaked in 1999-2000, hit a lower local peak in 2007 (about the same time as a bump-up in consumer confidence in 2006 – RMINC is for the entire year).

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 30, 2016.


  • UMich Consumer Confidence Slips To 7-Month Lows As Hope Fades

    Despite modestly beating expectations, UMich consumer sentiment for June dropped to 95.1 – the lowest since Nov 2016 – led by a collapse in ‘hope’ for the future.
    Inflation expectations for the medium-term fell very modestly but both short- and medium-term remain near record lows.
    Personal finance expectations improved in June as did the percentage of Americans expecting higher incomes. However, the percentage of Americans who expect a comfortable retirement dropped notably… and the percentage of Americans who expect the country to have contonuous good times for the next 12 months also tumbled.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 30, 2017.


  • U.S. Economy at Risk from Trump’s Poll Numbers

    A new poll is out from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago. It doesn’t bode well for Donald Trump’s presidency nor for the U. S. economy. Despite Wall Street’s century-old propaganda campaign to convince Washington that it controls the levers to economic growth in the U. S., and thus must be placated on its every desire, informed citizens understand that economic power rests in the hands of the consumer in a nation where two-thirds of GDP is consumer spending.
    Likewise, consumer confidence in the President of the United States impacts one’s willingness to open the purse strings and buy. The thinking is: if the country is headed in the wrong direction, how safe is my job? Perhaps I should stop spending and put money away for a rainy day.
    The new poll shows that 64 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Trump is doing. Particularly troubling for a democracy, 65 percent say he doesn’t respect the country’s institutions and traditions. On specific issues, 66 percent disapprove of his handling of health care; 64 percent disapprove of his handling of climate change; 63 percent disapprove of his handling of foreign policy; 60 percent disapprove of his handling of immigration and 55 percent disapprove of how he’s handling the economy.

    This post was published at Wall Street On Parade on June 15, 2017.


  • Wealth Paradox Not Effect

    US Household Net Worth rose to a record $94.8 trillion in Q1 2017. According to the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1), aggregate paper wealth rose by more than 8% year-over-year mostly as the stock market shook off the effects of ‘global turmoil.’ It was the best rate of expansion since the second quarter of 2014 just prior to this ‘rising dollar’ interruption.
    At such a high level, though, the ratio of net worth to spending has skyrocketed. That means the so-called wealth effect doesn’t appear to have any effect whatsoever. In Q1 1995, Household Net Worth was a quaint $27.3 trillion compared to $7.6 trillion in (nominal) Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers. That’s a ratio of $3.60 in ‘wealth’ for every $1 in (nominal) spending. The latest estimates now suggest $4.85 in ‘wealth’ for every $1 in (nominal) spending.
    There isn’t even a detectable relationship between growth of net worth and consumer confidence. The theorized channel between asset prices, primarily, and economic growth in boosted ‘aggregate demand’ is through the mood of households. Investors are largely consumers even if clustered toward the upper income strata, so economists believe that higher asset prices increase their confidence so as to loosen their purse strings even if otherwise they might be more cautious about spending.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 9, 2017.


  • The Entire System Is Ripping Itself Apart And It’s Going Unnoticed – Episode 1293a

    The following video was published by X22Report on May 30, 2017
    Eurozone economic confidence declines and the economies of the European nations has not improved since the great recession. Consumer confidence is declining. Personal spending tumbles on a year to year basis. Millions of Americans just got a boost int their credit scores, and the central bank is hoping this will allow more people to go into debt. Case Shiler is reporting a surge in home prices in their 20 cities. The corporate debt bomb is ticking and it worse than ever. Trump calls for nuclear option so the government is not shutdown. In Dubai a gold backed cryptocurrency has been launched.


  • Global Markets Mostly Weaker; Fed-Speak, U.S. Jobs Data In Focus This Week

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    (Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly near steady to weaker Tuesday, after the long U. S. holiday weekend. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the U. S. day session begins. Gold prices are modestly lower in pre-U. S. trading after poking to a four-week high overnight. The gold bulls still have some near-term technical momentum as prices are in a fledging uptrend on the daily bar chart.
    In overnight news, the Euro zone May consumer confidence index came in at -3.3 versus -3.6 in April. The May reading was in line with market expectations.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on May 30, 2017.


  • Deutsche Bank Downgrades European Banks To Underweight

    In what some may find an amusing change in outlook by the bank that less than a year ago was on insolvency’s door, its stock at record lows, this morning Deutsche Bank downgraded its peers, other (ostensibly more sound) European banks, to underweight from benchmark on expectations that fading euro-area growth momentum will weigh on the sector over coming months.
    At the same time, DB strategist Andreas Bruckner also Upgraded energy to overweight from underweight as recent USD weakness points to near-term upside for oil. He also upgraded construction materials to overweight from underweight as the recent correction has gone too far given sector is already priced for severe slowdown in global growth and a sharp rise in U. S. credit spreads even as they have tightened.
    The German bank also downgrades tech to benchmark from overweight given fair price after outperformance and USD weakness, DB notes however that within tech, Deutsche Bank prefers semiconductors.
    It also downgraded airlines to benchmark from overweight, and downgrades consumer durables to underweight from benchmark on expected slowdown in global PMI momentum, fading U. S. consumer confidence and high valuation. Finally, it reduced its underweight in mining as sector is below fair value estimate.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 30, 2017.


  • Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: US Industrial Production In Focus

    It is a relatively quiet week for economic news in the and Eurozone with focus turning to UK data, Japan 1Q GDP, inflation in Canada & Australia’s employment report. Norway GDP should show continued improvement and the Riksbank proposal on a new policy target will also draw interest. In EM there are monetary policy meetings in Chile, Indonesia, Mexico and Poland.
    The start to the week is even more quiet today with no significant data to highlight, while in the US the May empire manufacturing reading is due along with the NAHB housing market index for May.
    On Tuesday, with little of note in Asia it’ll be straight to Europe where the final April CPI revisions are due in France along with the April CPI/RPI/PPI data docket in the UK. Euro area Q1 GDP and March trade data follows, while the May ZEW survey is also due in Germany. In the US tomorrow we’re due to receive April housing starts, building permits and industrial production data.
    We’re kicking off Wednesday in Japan where the March industrial production print is due. In the UK we’ll get March and April employment data, while April CPI for the Euro area is also due.
    There is no data of note in the US on Wednesday.
    Thursday kicks off in Japan again with the Q1 preliminary GDP report, while in China we’re also due to get April property prices data. In France on Thursday we’ll get Q1 employment data while in the UK we’ll get April retail sales. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook for May and Conference Board’s leading index for April.
    It’s a quiet end to the week on Friday. In Germany we get April PPI while in the afternoon session we get the flash consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in May. There is no data in the US on Friday.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 15, 2017.


  • Consumer Confidence ‘Steady’ Despite Weak Wages, No Spending, Slow Growth

    Apart from stagnant wage growth, dismal economic growth, and tumbling spending growth, Americans remain ‘confident’ according to University of Michigan. Current conditions fell very modestly but ‘hope’ rose to its highest since January. Inflation expectations were steady (near record lows) but buying climates improved MoM.
    It seems UMich respondents do not care about wage growth (just the Nasdaq)…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 28, 2017.