• Tag Archives CME
  • Falling Productivity of Debt, Gold and Silver

    Last week, we discussed the ongoing fall of dividend, and especially earnings, yields. This Report is not a stock letter, and we make no stock market predictions. We talk about this phenomenon to make a different point. The discount rate has fallen to a very low level indeed.
    Discount in stocks is how you assess the present-day value of earnings to occur in the future. For example, if the discount rate is 10%, then a dollar of earnings per share at Acme Piping next year is worth $0.90 today. At a 1% discount, it’s worth $0.99. As you look forward many years, the difference between these rates is very large.
    A buck of earnings at 10% discount = $1.00 + $0.90 + $0.81 + $0.73 … = $10.
    At 1% discount = $1.00 + $0.99 + $0.98 + $0.97 … = $100.
    A rising stock price is equivalent to a falling discount rate, assuming earnings are not growing commensurately. Our graph last week shows that they aren’t.
    The idea of commensurate is important in economics. Any economist can paint a rosy picture by, for example, showing rising GDP. If you object that debt is rising with GDP, the economist switches to a chart of debt/GDP. He will tell you that the solution is to grow GDP with the right fiscal and regulatory policies.
    However, we can look at how much additional GDP is added for each newly-borrowed dollar. This is called marginal productivity of debt. This shows a clear picture, a secular decline over many decades. To produce this graph, take change in GDP divided by change in debt.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Monday, 16 October 2017.


  • Looking For A Last Minute ‘Cheap’ Trade On A CPI Miss?

    Demand has exploded for a cheap options bet which stands to benefit should the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December tumble.
    As Bloomberg reports, the eurodollar call option involved expires Friday, so the biggest chance the wager has to profit lies with a weaker-than-forecast print on the September consumer price index, set for release at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
    The options position emerged Wednesday, and was added to dramatically on Thursday, CME open interest data show.
    Expectations are for a 0.6% rise in CPI MoM (Core CPI +0.2% exp) and the whisper number is for a 0.5% rise.
    The current odds for a Dec rate hike are 80.2%…

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 13, 2017.


  • OCT 11/WORK IN PROGRESS/COMEX DATA NOT PROVIDED BY CME

    GOLD: $xx
    Silver: $xx
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $
    silver: $
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1302.86 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1291.55
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $11.31 (premiums getting larger)
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1298.30
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.30
    Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.00 (PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1290.20
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.50
    LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1289.25
    NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1289.25
    For comex gold:
    OCTOBER/
    NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
    TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2329 FOR 232,900 OZ (7.241TONNES)
    For silver:
    OCTOBER
    1 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
    5,000 OZ/
    Total number of notices filed so far this month: 392 for 1,960,000 oz

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 11, 2017.


  • 3 New Intraday Lows at the London P.M. Gold Fix

    07 October 2017 — Saturday
    YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
    The gold price traded mostly sideways in Far East trading on their Friday, but developed a slight positive bias around the time that London opened. That lasted until shortly before the noon silver fix over there — and the price began to slide a bit. There was only a tiny price jiggle at the release of the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. in New York, but the price was pressured lower until the low tick of the day…and new intraday low for this move down…was set at the afternoon gold fix in London. It rallied sharply from there, before getting capped at the London close — and from that point chopped quietly, but unevenly higher for the rest of the Friday session.
    The CME Group reported the low and high ticks at $1,262.80 and $1,279.20 in the December contract.
    Gold finished the Friday session on its high tick of the day at $1,276.10 spot — and up $8.30 from Thursday’s close. Not surprisingly, net volume was over the moon at something around 352,000 contracts.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 8 October 2017.


  • Silver News: A New Administrator for the LBMA Silver Price Auction; Technological Breakthroughs

    The London Bullion Market Association recently chose a new administrator for its silver price auction, and scientists have discovered a variety of rice that accumulates and stores naturally occurring silver in the soil.
    The Silver Institute covers these stories, and highlights several other technological innovations involving silver, in its latest issue of Silver News.
    ICE Benchmark Administration will begin administering the silver benchmark and operating the auction underlying the London Bullion Market Association Silver Price in late September. IBA replaces a joint effort by CME Group and Thomson Reuters. IBA currently operates the London Gold Price benchmark.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 19, 2017.


  • The Forking Paradise – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

    Forking Incentives
    A month ago, we wrote about the bitcoin fork. We described the fork:
    Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance!

    This post was published at Acting-Man on September 5, 2017.


  • A2A with Chris Powell of GATA

    Chris Powell and Bill Murphy formed the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee in 1998 and they’ve been stalwart allies in the fight against gold price suppression and manipulation ever since. What a pleasure it was today to get caught up with Chris and get his thoughts on the current state of the global market for gold.
    As you listen, you’ll quickly be reminded that Chris is still one of the most informed and well-spoken advocates for our cause. Over the course of this webinar, he addresses a number of current issues including:
    the most important lesson he’s learned in the 20 years he’s followed the gold market the strange occurrence of SecTreas Mnuchin visiting Ft Knox and the equally strange television interview of Terry Duffy, the CEO of the CME Group whether the US government would financially benefit from revaluing the price of gold how physical demand will paly a role in finally ending the tyranny of the central banks and bullion banks and much, much more!

    This post was published at TF Metals Report on Thursday, August 31, 2017.


  • Bitcoin Forked – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

    A Fork in the Cryptographic Road So bitcoin forked. You did not know this. Well, if you’re saving in gold perhaps not. If you’re betting in the crypto-coin casino, you knew it, bet on it, and now we assume are happily diving into your greater quantity of dollars after the fork.
    ***
    You don’t have a greater quantity of bitcoins; bitcoin has no yield. Bitcoin simply sells for a greater quantity of dollars now than it did before. But who wants to sell? Bitcoin is going to a million bucks – at least. So bitcoin, whatever it is, forked. Whatever forking is. To understand these two concepts, let’s consider an analogy.
    Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E. Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance!

    This post was published at Acting-Man on August 8, 2017.


  • Half Of Detroit’s Mayoral Candidates Are Felons

    Will voters in one of the most crime-ridden cities in the country be able to stomach voting for a convicted felon? Residents of Detroit are about to find out. Half of the candidates running in next Tuesday’s mayoral primary – the first since the city emerged from Bankruptcy protection in 2014 – have felony convictions on their records, according to an analysis of criminal records by the Detroit News.
    In what we must admit is a masterful attempt at spin, one political operative said the felony convictions make the candidates more relatable because they show the candidates have each “lived a little.”
    ‘Black marks on your record show you have lived a little and have overcome some challenges,’ said Bowens, a former press secretary to Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer and NAACP activist. ‘They (candidates) deserve the opportunity to be heard, but they also deserve to have the kind of scrutiny that comes along with trying to get an important elected position.’
    Michigan election law stipulates that convicted felons can vote and run for office as long as they are not incarcerated or guilty of certain fraud-related offenses, or crimes involving a breach of the public trust. The top two finishers in the primary will go on to face off against incumbent mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for reelection. Duggan has received endorsements from a host of powerful unions, including the Detroit Metro AFL-CIO and the powerful public employees’ union AFSCME.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2017.


  • Western Central Bank Fear Of Gold Is In The Air

    Ballooning open interest, heavy fix selling, aggressive post-settlement selling, flash crashes – this all seems a lot of bother. Perhaps the Other Side is afraid of something. – John Brimelow from his Gold Jottings report
    Wednesday evening at 7:06 EST, at one of the least liquid trading periods of the 23 hour trading day for Comex paper gold, a ‘motivated’ seller unloaded 10,777 August gold contracts into the CME’s Globex trading system, knocking the price of gold down $9 in 25 minutes. There were no obvious news or events reported that would have triggered any investor to dump over 1 million ozs of gold with complete disregard to price execution.

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 3, 2017.


  • Is the COMEX Rigged?

    The COMEX gold futures market and the London OTC gold market have a joint monopoly on setting the international gold price. This is because these two markets generate the largest ‘gold’ trading volumes and have the highest ‘liquidity’. However, this price setting dominance is despite either of these two markets actually trading physical gold bars. Both markets merely trade different forms of derivatives of gold bars.
    Overall, the COMEX (which is owned by the CME Group) is even more dominant that the London market in setting the international price of gold. This is a feat which financial academics ascribe to COMEX being a centralized electronic platform offering low transaction costs, ease of leverage, and ‘the ability to avoid dealing with the underlying asset’ (i.e. COMEX allows its participants to avoid dealing with gold bars). Because of these traits, say the academics, COMEX has a ‘disproportionately large role in [gold] price discovery’.
    Over 95% of COMEX gold futures trading is now conducted on CME’s electronic trading platform Globex, with most of the remainder done on CME’s electronic Clearport, where futures trades executed in the OTC market can be settled by CME. Next to nothing in gold futures is traded any more via pit-based open outcry.

    This post was published at Bullion Star on 18 Jul 2017.


  • CME Group CEO: Gold Extremely Undervalued; Should Be $5,000 to $6,000 Per Ounce (Video)

    In his Gold Videocast last week, Peter Schiff made the case that silver is extremely undervalued, especially when compared with gold.
    In a recent interview with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business, CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy says gold is undervalued as well. He said he believes realistically, gold should be at $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce.
    And at some point, the price will catch up with reality.
    If you look at the price of gold today, just around $1,200 an ounce, and if you look at back in the early 80s. it was trading around $800 an ounce. So, if you adjust for inflation, you should have gold at around $2,000 or $3,000 an ounce, and if you look at what’s gone on in the world, it should probably be at $5,000 or $6,000 an ounce.’
    Duffy said he thinks the main reason gold and silver remain undervalued has to do with the fact that most people misjudge and downplay the amount of instability and economic chaos in the world. But at some point, the blinders will fall off.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 17, 2017.


  • Video – ‘Gold Should Probably Be $5000’ – CME Chairman

    Video – ‘Gold Should Probably Be $5000’ – CME Chairman Duffy
    – Fed has caused ‘frustration’ and ‘confusion’ in market place
    – ‘If you adjust for inflation, you should have gold somewhere around 2 to 3,000 per ounce’
    – ‘If you look at what is going on the world, gold should probably be $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce’
    – ‘Lot of us are so jaded about what is going on in the world, it is like yesterday’s newspaper in five minutes’
    – ‘One day you will not be able to dismiss them and you will see a huge move in the precious metals’
    – Gold ‘coins are probably of more value than anything else’ – CME President Duffy on Bloomberg in 2013

    This post was published at Gold Core on July 13, 2017.


  • Bearish Bets on Gold, Silver Spike as Sentiment Turns Negative

    Gold and silver prices fell to new multi-month lows versus a strengthening US Dollar at the start of European trade on Monday, hitting 4-month and 16-month Dollar lows respectively.
    Priced in the Euro both precious metals fared worse still, dropping to their cheapest since February and March 2016.
    With gold and silver hitting US Dollar lows of $1205 and $15.21 per ounce respectively at 8 AM London time, world-leading base-metals platform the London Metal Exchange this morning launched its& new LME precious contracts, aimed at “modernising the gold and silver markets” currently centered in the UK capital, and also set to compete with dominant US-based futures and options exchange the CME Group’s Comex products.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/10/2017.


  • CME Stays Silent on Cause of COMEX Silver Price Glitch

    Silver futures prices on the COMEX futures trading platform briefly plummeted at approximately 7:06am Singapore time yesterday, with the price for the front month (most active) September silver contract falling from a US$16.06 quote down to a low of US$14.34 all within a 1 minute interval. The futures price then recovered nearly all of its losses in the subsequent 2-3 minute period. High to low, this COMEX silver futures contract saw its price fall by just over 10.7%, before rebounding nearly 11%.
    During this time when the COMEX price crashed, there was nothing fundamentally happening in the wider financial markets, or indeed in the physical silver market, to justify these price gyrations in COMEX silver futures prices. Which all goes to show that the COMEX ‘paper’ futures silver prices is completely detached from the physical silver market, and that COMEX silver futures prices have no anchoring in the real silver market.
    This price movement in the September 2017 silver futures contract (contract code SIU7 aka SIU17) can be seen in the below 1-minute tick candlestick chart from CME. Times in the chart are New York Time (NYT), which is 12 hours behind Singapore.

    This post was published at Bullion Star on 7 Jul 2017.


  • Gartman: “The Time Has Come To Be Short Of Oil Once Again”

    When we pointed out yesterday that “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman remained bearish of oil, we quoted him as saying that “it has been our intention all along to await the opportunity to sell crude oil short on protracted rally and we are getting that rally as we write. We can be patient a while longer.” His patience lasted less than 24 hours, because one day later – as oil is on the cusp of extending its bullish run for a near record 9th consecutive day – Gartman this morning that “the time then has come to be short of crude oil once again.”
    The section of note:
    CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE and have now risen for 8 or 9 days in a row, depending upon when one has marked the close. Going by the CME’s official closes, yesterday was the 8th day in row higher and the ‘bounce’ from the lows made two weeks ago amidst what was then panic liquidation has now taken the market to an almost equally over-bought, hyper-extended level to the upside. We have maintained that the ‘bounce’ would take crude back to The Box marking the 50-62% retracement in nearby WTI crude to somewhere between $47.00-$48.15 and for all intents that was satisfied yesterday when the high of $47.07. Note then the chart of nearby August WTI and note The Box.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 4, 2017.


  • Gold’s ‘Bearish Bulls’ Addressed, Now What?

    [as to the article’s title, I don’t have a firm, paint-by-numbers answer, but I surely do have strategy… ]
    An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (said with admiration) came up with the term ‘bearish bulls’ recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, especially heading into this week as the dreaded ‘GDXJ rebalance’ and then next week’s FOMC loomed.
    On the former, some bounce opportunities were created in oversold companies involved in the rebalance (with bearish bulls’ short covering providing the accelerant) and on the latter, I very much expect the Fed to raise the Funds Rate next week; and so does the futures market. From CME Group…

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 June 2017.


  • Deutsche Bank Trader Admits To Rigging Precious Metals Markets

    After months of “smoking guns” and conspiracy theory dismissals, a Singapore-based Deutsche Bank trader (at the center of fraud allegations) finally confirmed (by admitting guilt) what many have suspected – the biggest banks in the world have conspired to rig precious metals markets.
    The Deutsche Bank trader, David Liew, pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago to conspiring to spoof gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures, according to court papers. Bloomberg notes that spoofing involves traders placing orders that they never intend to fill, in an attempt to manipulate the price.
    Following an introductory period that included orientation and training, LIEW was eventually assigned to the metals trading desk (which included base metals and precious metals trading) in approximately December 2009. During the Relevant Period, LIEW was employed by Bank A as a metals trader in the Asia-Pacific region, and his primary duties included precious metals market making and futures trading.
    Between in or around December 2009 and in or around February 2012 (the “Relevant Period”), in the Northern District of Illinois, Eastem Division, and elsewhere, defendant DAVID LIEW did knowingly and intentionally conspire and agree with other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) traders to: (a) knowingly execute, and attempt to execute, a scheme and artifice to defraud, and for obtaining money and property by means of materially false and fraudulent pretenses, representations, and promises, and in furtherance of the scheme and artifice to defraud, knowingly transmit, and cause to be transmitted, in interstate and foreign commerce, by means of wire communications, certain signs, signals and sounds, in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1343, which scheme affected a financial institution; and (b) knowingly engage in trading, practice, and conduct, on and subject to the rules of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (“CME”), that was, was of the character of, and was commonly known to the trade as, spoofing, that is, bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution, by causing to be transmitted to the CME precious metals futures contract orders that LIEW and his coconspirators intended to cancel before execution and not as part of any legitimate, good-faith attempt to execute any part of the orders, in violation of Title 7, United States Code, Sections 6c(a)(5)(C) and 13(a)(2); all in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 371.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 2, 2017.


  • Hong Kong needs around-the-clock gold trading

    The HKEX has presented proposals for two new gold futures products, to be launched as early as July, which would trade 16 hours a day. But brokers say that might prove too short.
    “The gold market trades around the clock. This is why our customers are trading at CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in the United States, which trades 23 hours a day,” said Alfred Yeung Ping-kwan, founding chairman of Glory Sky Group, which trades gold and stocks for investors in Hong Kong.
    HKEX this month said it would start offering two new gold futures contracts — one in U.S. dollars the other in yuan — with physical delivery.

    This post was published at South China Morning Post


  • Are Interest Rates Going Up in June 2017?

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Thanks to the unemployment rate reaching a 10-year low in April, it’s likely that interest rates are going up in June 2017. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a gauge of the market’s expectations, there’s now a 78.5% chance the Fed will raise interest rates at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.
    The Fed wants to raise rates at the June FOMC meeting so it can stay on track with the goal it set in December 2016. At the time, officials said they wanted a total of three interest rate hikes in 2017. Interest rates were raised in March, which means we need two more rate hikes before the end of the year.
    There are only four FOMC meetings after June, so the Fed is running out of opportunities…

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on May 23, 2017.