• Tag Archives Canada
  • Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed

    Kenneth Rogoff, the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the central banks that the next recession they will have to resort to negative interest rates and they should prepare now. Despite the fact that negative rates have failed to work in Europe or Japan, seems to be nothing to really consider. So what after almost 10 years of failed policies at the European Central Bank, it will eventually work maybe in 12 or 13 years? It just requires patience? Well even a broken watch is correct twice a day for a brief moment in time.
    This is the problem with academics. They don’t get the calls for help. A friend in the central bank of Canada referred a major Canadian company to us.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 19, 2017.


  • Shorting Stocks Will Outperform The Market

    On December 1st, with a short-sell report I wrote on L Brands (LB) and published by Seeking Alpha that I used to launch the Short Seller’s Journal, I explained why L Brands was a great short idea at $96. Here was my rationale:
    L Brands (NYSE:LB) is a specialty retailer that operates the Victoria Secret and Bath & Body Works chains. It also operates La Senza, a Canada-based intimate apparel retail concept, and Henri Bendel, a highend accessory products brand. The stock has run from under $7 in March 2009 to its current (November 27) price of $96.68. In that time period, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 350%. But, in the context of rapidly slowing revenue growth, declining operating margins, increasing financial leverage and a likely pullback in consumer spending, LB’s stock is extremely overvalued relative to its underlying fundamentals and relative to its peers. In my view, LB represents a compelling opportunity to short the highly overvalued stock of a company operating in a business sector facing significant economic headwinds.
    Here’s how the LB short performed from 12/1/15 to present, after reporting an pre-arranged ‘beat’ of Wall St’s earnings estimates (the big game that has developed over the years is for management to ‘wink wink’ walk Wall Street’s robotic analysts’ quarterly estimates down to a level below the actual numbers the company plans to report) but was forced to warn about the rest of the year:

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 17, 2017.


  • Gold’s future confiscation is a growing reality, as currency confidence slides! – Part 6

    The subject of gold’s confiscation has come onto our screens again, but this time, being described as a ‘Myth’ in the future. This thought comes from Canada, a favorite place for U. S. citizens to store their gold in the hopes that it will be outside the reach of the U. S. Federal Reserve.
    We respond to the article that described it as a myth, because we are firmly of the opinion that as we move from dollar hegemony to a multi currency, world currencies will find themselves competing against each other [race to the bottom] and increase the prospects for the confiscation of gold held in storage companies and by dealers as well as making such dealing illegal again.
    This makes the confiscation of gold and eventually silver, afuture reality. It is impossible to give a date when this will happen making now a prudent time to act.
    a) Covered in the first part: In this article we will look at the real reasons why the U. S. confiscation took place and its broad objectives as well as the underlying principles behind the confiscation and how they can apply in the future.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 17 August 2017.


  • How to Cash In When the Fed’s Sweetheart Deal with the World’s Biggest Banks Turns Sour

    I recently showed you why ‘don’t fight the Fed’ is likely the most profitable investment advice you can get.
    Now I’m going to show you why it works so well.
    And while I do that, I’m going to blow the door off the hinges and expose how the Federal Reserve’s outsized influence and tight relationships with some of the planet’s biggest, most powerful banks can make or break markets…
    …and lead you to some of the biggest gains you’ve ever seen: 100% sure money.
    Meet the Fed’s ‘Accomplices
    Big surprise: the U. S. Federal Reserve does things a little differently than your ‘usual’ bank.
    You see, the Fed handpicks a small group of (very) privileged dealers to trade with.
    They are officially called ‘Primary Dealers,’ and today there are 23 of them. These banks are based in Canada, France, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and of course, the United States. The foreign banks the Fed deals with maintain a presence in New York City.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 10, 2017.


  • North Korea Releases Canadian Prisoner As Tillerson Talks Down “Imminent Threat”

    In two welcome signs of de-escalation after yesterday’s sudden spike in bellicose rhetoric, moments ago North Korea released a Canadian man from prison on humanitarian grounds, the Korean Central News Agency reported on Wednesday. He was serving a life sentence in the country for anti-state activities. As CGTN adds, Rim Hyon Su, also known as Rev. Lim Hyeon-soo was sentenced to life in prison with hard labor in December 2015.
    The release was expected following yesterday’s news that Canadian special envoy, Daniel Jean, national security advisor to the prime minister of Canada, and his party had arrived in Pyongyang on Tuesday.
    As the WSJ adds, and as we said yesterday, the release of Rev. Lim Hyeon-soo could also lower tensions between North Korea and the Western world. However, hours before Lim was released, North Korea and Donald Trump exchanged heated public threats, which unleashed a “risk off” shockwave around the globe.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 9, 2017.


  • De-escalation: Canadian Envoy Arrives In North Korea

    In the latest, and most tangible sign yet of ongoing attempts to de-escalate the conflict with North Korea, the state-run news agency KCNA reports that a special envoy of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived in North Korea on Tuesday, according to Yonhap.
    Daniel Jean, national security advisor to the prime minister of Canada, and his party arrived in Pyongyang, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, without elaborating further.
    The visit has drawn speculation that the envoy was to discuss the issue of Korean-Canadian pastor Lim Hyeon-soo detained in the reclusive regime. Lim has been held in custody by the North since he entered the reclusive country on a humanitarian mission in January 2015. In December the same year, the North’s highest court sentenced Lim to life in prison, citing his “subversive plots” against the Pyongyang regime.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 8, 2017.


  • Canada Looking to Tax Small Business 93%?

    The Finance Minister of Canada, Bill Morneau, has announced that the government is now targeting private corporations and fundamentally changing the way businesses are taxed. The Canadian government is focusing in on income sprinkling, earning passive investment income in a corporation, and converting a corporation’s ordinary income into tax-preferred capital gains. Effectively, the Canadian government is looking at itself first with no consideration whatsoever for the people or the economy. It is always about them just surviving. As for democratic processes, they rely upon tell the ignorant that they will get a free lunch if they tear those who create jobs into pieces.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 7, 2017.


  • China’s Minsky Moment Is Imminent

    Crescat Capital’s Q2 letter to investors shouold be retitled “everything you wanted to know about the looming bursting of the world’s biggest credit bubble… but were afraid to ask…” Don’t say we didn’t warn you…
    History has proven that credit bubbles always burst. China by far is the biggest credit bubble in the world today. We layout the proof herein. There are many indicators signaling that the bursting of the China credit bubble is imminent, which we also enumerate. The bursting of the China credit bubble poses tremendous risk of global contagion because it coincides with record valuations for equities, real estate, and risky credit around the world.
    The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has identified an important warning signal to identify credit bubbles that are poised to trigger a banking crisis across different countries: Unsustainable credit growth relative to gross domestic product (GDP) in the household and (non-financial) corporate sector. Three large (G-20) countries are flashing warning signals today for impending banking crises based on such imbalances: China, Canada, and Australia.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 6, 2017.


  • 2017 – The Year Without an Arctic Summer?

    They are calling this in the Year without an Arctic Summer. The Greenland Ice Sheet is gaining near record amounts of ice this year. Very little melting has occurred this summer, which is about to start coming to an end. Europe has been unusually cool once again after last year ice wiped out crops all the way down into Spain creating shortages of vegetables. With the sun activity declining and the North Pole reversing direction in 2000 heading toward Europe rather than Canada, things are not exactly supporting the Global Warming crowd. Since 1860, the magnetic pole shift has more than doubled every 50 years. That is rather significant. In geological terms, this is extremely rapid and could be the prelude to a pole shift nobody understands.
    Still, during the past 150 years, the pole shift has been in the same direction. The most astonishing fact is that since 2000, the magnetic North Pole has shifted nearly half of the total distance of the past 50 years! In other words, the pole shift has apparently picked up speed so much so that they have had to re-calibrate airports and their GPS signals so planes can still find them. Europe is getting colder. Friends in Scotland have relayed that had a spectacular summer this year – it lasted a whole two days! The earth is changing rapidly. We are overdue for a major pole shift (see Maya Report). The poles flip on the Sun every 11 years. We have no idea what the net result will be on Earth since the last flip was well before recorded history.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 6, 2017.


  • Gold’s future confiscation is a growing reality, as currency confidence slides!

    Article – Part 5
    The subject of gold’s confiscation has come onto our screens again, but this time, being described as a ‘Myth’ in the future. This thought comes from Canada, a favorite place for U. S. citizens to store their gold in the hopes that it will be outside the reach of the U. S. Federal Reserve.
    We respond to the article that described it as a myth, because we are firmly of the opinion that as we move from dollar hegemony to a multi currency, world currencies will find themselves competing against each other [race to the bottom] and increase the prospects for the confiscation of gold held in storage companies and by dealers as well as making such dealing illegal again.
    This makes the confiscation of gold and eventually silver, a future reality. It is impossible to give a date when this will happen making now a prudent time to act.
    a)Covered in the first part: In this article we will look at the real reasons why the U. S. confiscation took place and its broad objectives as well as the underlying principles behind the confiscation and how they can apply in the future. b)Covered in the first part: We will show how the confiscation of gold in 1933 wasnot a money supply issue, nor will it be in the future. c)Covered in the second part – We will highlight why such underlying principles are beginning to appear now, as this new global monetary system arrives on stage.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 August 2017.


  • Toronto Home Prices: Mean Reversion Alive and Well

    What soars up tends to crash down. Welcome to ‘free’ money driven asset moves.
    Watch Five Signs Canada Has Real Estate Mania
    What about all those supply shortages the realtors were talking about? Nothing like insanely high prices to bring supply on stream. In July Toronto new listings rose 5.1% and active listings were up 65% from a year earlier. See Toronto home prices suffer worst monthly decline in 17 years:
    Home prices in Canada’s largest city posted their biggest monthly drop in at least 17 years in July and sales plunged as government efforts to cool the market and the near-collapse of a mortgage lender made buyers leery.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/03/2017.


  • Chris Whalen: “Gundlach Isn’t Wrong, He’s Just Early”

    Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisers and a very well-known financial analyst (he was one of the original forecasters of Lehman’s inevitable demise) appeared on MacroVoices podcast this week to discuss the equity valuations, the path of the US dollar and DoubleLine Capital founder Jeff Gundlach’s declaration that the 35-year bull market in bonds is dead. Some of the key highlights:
    “Erik: I want to start with the US dollar because, you know, we’ve had quite a few guests talking up a secular bullish argument on the dollar and, boy, it really all sounds very compelling, but look at the chart. The dollar bulls – the chart is telling us dollar bulls that we’re wrong. So how do you see this playing out? What do you think is driving the weakness that we’re seeing in the US dollar? And does it represent a secular change in direction, or is this just a natural pullback in an ongoing bull market?
    Chris: Well, you know, it’s hard for analysts to get their hands around the dollar because the old relationships, particularly interest rates and trade balances, which used to give you a good idea of where a currency was going to go don’t seem to matter anymore. So the dollar was rising against major currencies after the financial crisis, and particularly over the last four or five years, in large part because people were fleeing whatever country they were in and going to the perceived safety of the United States. So Russian oligarchs, members of China’s communist party, they sent trillions of dollars to the United States over the past five years. Much of it went into American real estate. They also like Canada by the way, because both the US and Canada protect property rights, and they have a reasonable degree of confidentiality when it comes to investment flows. So if you’re a communist party cadre in China and you’ve stolen millions of dollars, you want a safe place to hide it.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 30, 2017.


  • The Bad Guys Are Cowering In The Corner As The Good Guys Clean House – Episode 1344b

    The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 30, 2017
    Trump and the good guys are now pushing the bad guys out, the elite are now panicking. A special counsel has been created to investigate Clinton, Comey and Lynch. US and Canada are telling its citizens to leave Venezuela. North Korea fired another missile, the bad guys want war and they are pushing the story that NK fired and ICBM and now its time to take action. The deep state is pushing the story that Russia is arming the Taliban, this is to push Trump into sending more troops. Russia invites BRICS to fight terrorism. The bad guys are still pushing their agenda they are training terrorists covertly in Jordan.


  • US Orders Venezuela Embassy Families Out As Crisis “Showdown” Arrives

    On Thursday, the U. S. government ordered family members of employees at its embassy in Venezuela to leave as the nation’s political crisis deepened ahead of a controversial vote critics contend will end democracy in the oil-rich country. Similarly, Canada warned its nationals against non-essential travel to Venezuela and urged citizens already there to leave. As well as ordering relatives to leave, the U. S. State Department on Thursday also authorized the voluntary departure of any U. S. government employee at its compound-like hilltop embassy in Caracas, where hyperinflation is about to hit 1,000%.
    Meanwhile, as France 24 notes, Venezuela careened towards a “showdown” on its streets Friday between anti-government protesters and security forces, raising international alarm at worsening deadly unrest. The opposition called fresh nationwide demonstrations to defy a new government ban on rallies ahead of a controversial vote Sunday to elect a body to rewrite the constitution.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 28, 2017.


  • How I Know Facebook Is LYING

    Not difficult to figure out folks, but I think you should buy the stock because lying firms are great investments.

    In other words Zuckerpig (and Sandberg) claim that 83% of all persons over the age of 15 between the US and Canada (Canada has about 30 million adults) are active monthly on Facebook.

    This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2017-07-26.


  • IMF Sees U.S. Fading as Global Growth Engine

    The world is leaning less on its biggest economy to sustain the global recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund.
    The fund left its forecast for global growth unchanged in the latest quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook, released Monday in Kuala Lumpur. The world economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, up from 3.2 percent in 2016, and by 3.6 percent next year, the IMF said. The forecasts for this year and next are unchanged from the fund’s projections in April.
    Beneath the headline figures, though, the drivers of the recovery are shifting, with the world relying less than expected on the U.S. and U.K. and more on China, Japan, the euro zone and Canada, according to the Washington-based IMF.
    The dollar fell to its lowest in 14 months last week as investors discounted the ability of President Donald Trump’s administration to deliver on its economic agenda after efforts by the Republican Senate to overhaul health care collapsed.
    ‘U.S. growth projections are lower than in April, primarily reflecting the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary going forward than previously anticipated,’ the IMF said in the latest report.

    This post was published at bloomberg


  • Canadian Trading Trends: What Makes Markets Tick

    Everybody wants to make a buck on the markets. The problem for so many of us is that the financial markets can be confusing and intimidating at times. The S&P/TSX is the premier stock exchange for Canadians. It lists a large selection public companies and the market capitalization was reported at $2.2841 trillion as at 30 March 2017.
    There are multiple indices on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) including the S&P/TSX Completion Index, the S&P/TSX 60 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Recently, the Toronto Stock Exchange hit an 8-month low. This presents many challenges to Canadian investors are looking to profit off the appreciation of stocks.
    Why are Markets Bearish in Canada? It’s important to understand that the Canadian economy is driven largely by commodities, notably crude oil. On Friday, 7 July 2017, the TSX plunged to a near 8-month low at 15,027.16. This was driven by multiple factors including weakness in oil prices and a desire for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Investors don’t miss an opportunity to make a buck on the markets. Since then however, the TSX has rallied. By Monday 17 July, 2017 the TSX was trading at 15,175.76 and is on a gradual uptrend. This is also being fuelled by rising oil prices, spurred by strong demand from China.

    This post was published at ZenTrader on July 24, 2017.


  • Yield Curve Not Suggesting Imminent Market Peak, Recession

    One of the most frequently cited predictors of a recession is when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates. This is referred to as an “inversion of the yield curve” and typically happens when bond investors have a negative outlook on the economy. If you’re not familiar with the basics of the yield curve, please see What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us about the Future? for more background.
    Here is what the Federal Reserve Bank of New York says on their website regarding the Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator:
    The yield curve has predicted essentially every U. S. recession since 1950 with only one “false” signal, which preceded the credit crunch and slowdown in production in 1967. There is also evidence that the predictive relationships exist in other countries, notably Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
    Currently, the yield curve for the US is flattening – and not inverted – so there is no imminent signal that the US economy is facing a recession.
    The big question is timing.

    This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/19/2017.


  • Why Global Warming is Good

    One of my greatest concerns with all this Global Warming nonsense is that nobody seems to ever plot weather against the rise and fall of civilization. When you do, you arrive at a strikingly different perspective of global warming. The greatest advancements in civilization have ALWAYS taken place during periods of global warming. When the temperatures drop, crops fail, death becomes widespread, and society seems to barricade itself in withdrawing from trade.
    History is constantly being re-written as new discoveries are made, The global warming period that allowed the rise of Rome included the warming of the seas to the point that the Romans did sail to Canada where Roman swords have been discovered in addition to sending ambassadors to China.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Jul 20, 2017.