• Tag Archives Brazil
  • BRICS the Rise & Fall

    The first thing to go when a country is moving into economic crisis is the arts. This is intermixed with various social programs. As the economic crisis broadens, demand for taxing the rich rise. However, all this accomplishes is to cause capital to hide and hoard even more refusing to invest or spend and this then adds to the economic decline.
    The BRICS were touted as the new rage in the world economy. The BRICS were even holding their own summits and they were supposed to surpass the G7, were all the forecasts. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa became known as the ‘BRIC’ nations back in 2001 which was a term coined by of course Goldman Sachs.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Dec 27, 2017.


  • Gartman: “The Bear Market Is Upon Us We Fear “

    With the BTFD algos showing some uncharacteristic hesitancy this morning, Dennis Gartman’s overnight commentary may provide just the catalyst they need to do their sworn duty and ramp stocks into the green within minutes of the cash open for one simple reason: Gartman fears a bear market of “some serious vintage” is now be upon us.
    As excerpted from his latest overnight letter to clients:
    STOCK PRICES ARE UNIVERSALLY WEAKER THIS MORNING as all ten of the markets comprising our International Index have fallen and as two of the ten… the markets in Japan and in Brazil… have fallen by more than 1% with the former down 1.5% as we write and as we finish TGL and with the latter down a truly material 2.3%. In the end, our Index has fallen 86 ‘points’ or 0.7% and is down 175 ‘points’ from its all-time high of 12,012 on Thursday of last week, or 1.4% below that high.
    We note the ‘universal’ nature of the weakness for having all ten markets moving in the same direction is indeed quite rare and historically this occurs at major turning points; that is, the lows were made back in the spring of ’09 amidst panic, final liquidation of stocks when we had one or two days of universal weakness followed by a day or two of universal strength. That was a major turning point, obviously. Further, the interim lows made in January of this past year were accompanied by one day of ‘universal’ movement, and there are other examples that we can recall when prices moved in ‘universal’ terms and which marked major turning points. Today’s ‘universal’ weakness…only a week from the global market’s all-time high… is a harbinger of further material weakness we fear and sets the stage for the start of what we fear might well be a bear market of some serious vintage.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 15, 2017.


  • Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection

    – Internet shutdowns (116 in two years) show physical gold is ultimate protection
    – Number of internet shutdowns increased in 2017 as 30 countries hit by shutdowns
    – Democratic India experienced 54 internet shutdowns in last two years; Brazil 2
    – EU country Estonia, a technologically advanced nation, experienced a shutdown
    – Gallup poll shows Americans more worried about cybercrime than violent crime
    – Governments use terrorist threat as reason for internet kill switch powers
    – Own physical coins and bars rather than digital gold on a single platform
    Editor: Mark O’Byrne
    ***
    UNESCO is warning that the number of internet shutdowns is increasing worldwide. According to Statista.com when reporting data provided by digital rights platform accessnow.org, ‘internet access has been curbed 116 times in 30 countries since January 2016.’
    ‘Internet shutdown: An intentional disruption of Internet or electronic communications, rendering them inaccessible or effectively unusable, for a specific population or within a location, often to exert control over the flow of information.’ – Access Now.

    This post was published at Gold Core on November 13, 2017.


  • Hillary What Happened – She Rigged the Democratic Party

    Donna Brazile’s new memoir, Hacks, has exposed Hillary Clinton for what she really is – a corrupt manipulative politician. Bracile is the former Democratic party leader. Behind the curtain, she is known as a foul-mouth boldface liar. Now Brazile’s book, reveals that Clinton took control of the party long before deciding who would be the Democrat final candidate. This is what the Clinton’s have been known for – behind-the-scenes manipulation.
    Clinton knew that the Democratic party was heavily in debt. Brazile describes Hillary’s acquisition of the party as an extortion. The Party left behind by Barack Obama inherited $24 million debt of which $15 million was bank debt, and $8 million was owed by the party to suppliers who had not been paid. In real terms, the Democratic Party was bankrupt confirming what our models had been forecasting about the decline in that party.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Nov 7, 2017.


  • NOV 3/POOR JOBS REPORT BUT THAT DID NOT MATTER AS THE CROOKS RAIDED GOLD AND SILVER/COMEX SILVER OI CONTINUES TO RISE WITH ITS LATEST READING OVER 206,000 CONTRACTS/AFTER THE USA FINISHED OFF ISI…

    GOLD: $1268.90 DOWN $8.65
    Silver: $16.85 down 27 cents
    Closing access prices:
    Gold $1270.00
    silver: $16.86
    SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
    SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1300.00 DOLLARS PER OZ
    NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1280.05
    PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $19.90(premiums getting larger)
    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1292.04
    NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.00

    This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on November 3, 2017.


  • The Curious Case Of Missing The Market Boom

    Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
    ‘The Cost of Missing the Market Boom is Skyrocketing’, says a Bloomberg headline today. That must be the scariest headline I’ve seen in quite a while. For starters, it’s misleading, because people who ‘missed’ the boom haven’t lost anything other than virtual wealth, which is also the only thing those who haven’t ‘missed’ it, have acquired.
    Well, sure, unless they sell their stocks. But a large majority of them won’t, because then they would ‘miss’ out on the market boom… Some aspects of psychology don’t require years of study. Is that what behavioral economics is all about?
    And it’s not just the headline, the entire article is scary as all hell. It reads way more like a piece of pure and undiluted stockbroker propaganda that it does resemble actual objective journalism, which Bloomberg would like to tell you it delivers. And it makes its point using some pretty dubious claims to boot: The Cost of Missing the Market Boom Is Skyrocketing
    Skepticism in global equity markets is getting expensive. From Japan to Brazil and the U. S. as well as places like Greece and Ukraine, an epic year in equities is defying naysayers and rewarding anyone who staked a claim on corporate ownership. Records are falling, with about a quarter of national equity benchmarks at or within 2% of an all-time high.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 14, 2017.


  • 9/10/17: BRIC Services PMI 3Q 2017: Another Quarter of Weaker Growth

    Having covered 3Q 2017 figures for BRIC Manufacturing PMIs in the previous post, let’s update the same for Services sector. BRIC Services PMI has fallen sharply in 3Q 2017 to 50.8 from 52.1 in 2Q 2017. This is the lowest reading since 2Q 2016 (when it also posted 50.8). The drivers of this poor dynamic are: Brazil Services PMI remained below 50.0 mark for the 12th consecutive quarter, rising marginally to 49.5 in 3Q 2017 from 49.0 in 2Q 2017. Current reading matches 1Q 2015 for the highest levels since 1Q 2014. Statistically, Brazil Services PMI has been at zero or lower growth since 1Q 2014. Russia Services PMI fell to 54.0 in 3Q 2017 from 56.0 in 2Q 2017 and 56.8 in 1Q 2017, indicating some cooling off in otherwise rapid expansion dynamics. The recovery in Russian Services sectors is now 6 quarters long and overall very robust. China Services PMI decline marginally from 52.0 in 2Q 2017 to 51.6 in 3Q 2017. This is consistent with trend established from the local peak performance in 4Q 2016. Overall, Chinese Services are showing signs of persistent weakness, with growth indicator falling below statistically significant reading once again in 3Q 2017. India Services sector has been a major disappointment amongst the BRIC economies, with Services PMI falling from 51.8 in 2Q 2017 to a recessionary 48.0 in 3Q 2017. The Services PMIs for the country have been rather volatile in recent quarters, as the economy has lost any sense of trend since around 4Q 2016.

    This post was published at True Economics on Monday, October 9, 2017.


  • 9/10/17: BRIC Composite PMI 3Q: Failing Global Growth Momentum

    Two posts above cover Manufacturing PMIs and Services PMIs for 3Q 2017 for BRIC economies. The following updates Composite PMIs performance. Global Composite PMI came in at 53.7 in 3Q 2017, matching exactly 1Q and 2Q 2017 readings and basically in line with 53.6 reading in 4Q 2016. In other words, Global Composite activity PMI index has been showing relatively robust growth across the two key sectors for the last 4 quarters running. In contrast to Global indicator, BRIC economies posted relatively underwhelming performance with exception of Russia. Brazil Composite PMI index stood at 50.0 (zero growth) in 3Q 2017, which is a marginal gain on 49.8 in 2Q 2017. This marks the first time since 1Q 2014 that Brazil Composite indicator reached above the outright contraction levels, but it is a disappointing reading nonetheless. For one, one quarter does not signal stabilisation in Latin America’s largest economy. Worse, Brazil’s economy has been performing poorly since as far back as 2H 2011. It will take Brazil’s Composite index to hit above 52 mark for 2-3 consecutive quarters to start showing pre-2011 levels of activity again. Russia Composite PMI, on the other hand, remains the bright spark in the BRIC’s dark growth universe. Although falling to 4 quarters low of 54.1 in 3Q 2017, the index remains in strong growth territory. 3Q 2017 marked 6th consecutive quarter of robust post-recession recovery, consistent with 2.5-3 percent growth in GDP, quite ahead of the consensus forecasts from the start of 2017. The last quarter also marks the sixth consecutive quarter of Russian Composite PMIs running above Global Composite PMIs. This means that for the last 18 months, Russia has been the only positive contributor to Global growth from amongst the ranks of the BRIC economies.

    This post was published at True Economics on Monday, October 9, 2017.


  • The Week’s Key Events: All Eyes On The ECB

    With the US markets closed today, market events this week will be dominated by G10 central bank meetings, among which the ECB stands out, but also notable will be the RBA, BoC and Riksbank. Consensus does not expect policy changes yet. There is also a busy calendar for the UK (PMIs, housing, IP and trade balance) along with GDP/IP releases elsewhere. In EMs, there will be monetary policy meetings in Brazil, Poland and Malaysia. Brazil BCB is expected to cut rates by 100bp.
    Central bank preview:
    The ECB remains trapped between a strong(er) EUR and a rapidly shrinking universe of monetizable bonds; as a result Draghi will emphasize the impact of a strong EUR on inflation dynamics but will refrain from disclosing the destiny of QE after the 2018 expiry. Given the recent EUR appreciation, the ECB will prefer waiting for the September FOMC before committing on QE. Most sellside desks call for the October meeting where BofA expects a 6m QE extension at 40bn/month. The RBA is also expected to remain on hold with communication potentially getting more interesting now that forecasts and Parliamentary testimony are out of the way. On the longer term, the domestic housing market in particular to have a more significant influence on monetary policy with the balance of risks favoring rates up. For the BoC, unexpectedly strong economic growth, below neutral o/n rates and the Fed on a hiking cycle means that the Canada should follow with a hiking cycle as well. This said, low inflation and inflation expectations along with CAD appreciation do not argue for urgency. As a result while some have said the BOC’s meeting is “live”, most expected the central bank to remain on hold in September and hikes +25bp in October.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 4, 2017.


  • Meet Soccer’s $600 Million Man (Or What Qatar Is Doing While Its Economy Collapses)

    Brazilian superstar soccer player Neymar (yes one name… on the right in the image below), just smashed all previous records for crazy spending by European football soccer teams.
    ***
    Dwarfing the money in America’s NFL, NBA, or MLB, the 25-year-old forward has agreed to join French side Paris St. Germain (PSG) for a stunning EUR222 million ($250 million).
    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, the previous record, set last season when Manchester United bought midfielder Paul Pogba from Juventus, was an already astronomical 105 million.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.


  • A Weaker US Economy Could Result in Strong Gold Rally

    One possible effect of the ‘America First’ approach the Trump Administration vowed to take was a weaker US dollar. Shortly after we wrote about this earlier this year, the dollar index began a steady march lower, retreating 7% in just five months, from 102 in March to its current level of 95.
    Not surprisingly, gold has risen almost 10% in US dollar terms during this time.
    ***
    As recently as six months ago, many investors expected the dollar to continue its rally of the past few years based on stronger economic growth, via Trump’s agenda items, and tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
    However, despite high expectations, so far Trump’s efforts to overhaul healthcare and reform taxes have fallen flat and have been short on substance. In addition, the continued investigation of Trump’s Russia ties has caused more investors to grow skeptical about the chances for meaningful reform, beyond unilateral executive action.
    In a surprise move, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just slashed its GDP growth forecast for the United States from 2.3% to 2.1%. It also cut its 2018 forecast from 2.5% to 2.1%. This type of revision hasn’t been seen anywhere in the world except for Brazil and South Africa, two deeply troubled economies.

    This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on July 28, 2017.


  • Venezuelans Are Now Paying 1000 Times More For US Dollars Than They Did In 2010

    The hyperinflationary-hell in Venezuela’s currency is deepening as a crippling dollar shortage and a threat of oil sanctions (amid President Maduro’s attempts to rewrite the constition to maintain his grip on power) take their toll on the economy.
    Venezuela’s Latin American neighbors urged President Nicolas Maduro to refrain from actions that might exacerbate the country’s political crisis in a disappointment to some regional governments that favored more direct and forceful criticism. As Bloomberg reports, Mercosur, South America’s largest trade bloc, called on ‘the government and the opposition not to carry out any initiative that could divide further Venezuelan society or aggravate institutional conflicts,’ in a joint statement issued at the end of a summit in Mendoza, Argentina. Member countries Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay were joined by Chile, Colombia, Guyana and Mexico in signing the statement.
    International condemnation of the Maduro government’s plan to rewrite the country’s constitution to maintain its hold on power is gathering pace after the U. S. said it would impose sanctions on Venezuelan officials if Maduro goes ahead.
    As we noted earlier in the week, The Trump administration is mulling over sanctions against senior Venezuelan government officials, and additional measures could include sanctions against the country’s oil industry, such as halting imports into the U. S., according to senior Washington officials who spoke to media.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 22, 2017.


  • Doug Noland: Yellen on Inflation

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Credit Bubble Bulletin . To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Global Markets rallied sharply this week. The DJIA rose 223 points to a record 21,638. The S&P500 gained 1.4% to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq100 (NDX) surged 3.2%, increasing 2017 gains to 20.0%. The Morgan Stanley High Tech Index rose 3.4% (up 24.6% y-t-d), and the Semiconductors surged 4.7% (up 21.8%).
    Emerging markets were notably strong. Equities rallied 5.0% in Brazil, 5.5% in Hong Kong, 5.1% in Turkey, 2.5% in Russia, 2.2% in Mexico and 2.1% in India. The Brazilian real gained 3.2%, the Mexican peso 3.0%, the South African rand 2.7% and the Turkish lira 2.3%. Global bond markets also rallied. Yields (local currency) dropped 27 bps in Brazil, 18 bps in South Africa, 16 bps in Turkey and 22 bps in Argentina. Here at home, five-year Treasury yields dropped eight bps (to 1.87%). U. S. corporate Credit also enjoyed solid gains. Across global markets, it appeared that short positions were under pressure.
    Markets reacted with elation to Janet Yellen’s Washington testimony – widely perceived as dovish. In particular, the chair’s timely comments on inflation were cheered throughout global securities markets. A headline from the Financial Times: ‘Fed Chair Yellen’s Inflation Concern Buoys Markets.’ And Friday afternoon from Bloomberg: ‘S&P 500 Hits Record as Inflation View Turns Iffy’.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Doug Noland ‘ July 15, 2017.


  • The G20 Beyond the Public Agenda

    Since its beginning in 1999, the G20 had been a mere finance ministers’ meeting. But when the Panic of 2008 hit, President George W. Bush and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France were instrumental in changing the G20 to the leaders’ meeting it is today.
    The Panic of 2008 was one of the greatest financial catastrophes in history. In the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, attention turned to a previously scheduled G20 meeting of finance ministers in November.
    At the time, the G7 was the leading forum for economic coordination, but China was not in the G7 and its help would be needed to bail out the global economy.
    Once China was included, the door was open to other large emerging markets economies, such as India and Brazil. The guest list was expanded and the G20 leaders’ summit was born.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 8, 2017.


  • This Region Is China’s Next Target For Resource Deals

    South Africa’s chamber of mines officially filed suit this week to block the country’s challenging new mining charter. But elsewhere in the world, some of the biggest investors in natural resources are ramping up their financial commitments – to a new target region for mining and energy deals.
    Latin America.
    Specifically, Brazil. Where government officials announced that a major new infrastructure fund backed by China will begin accepting investment proposals this week.
    The $20 billion fund was unveiled late last year. With Chinese backers committing $15 billion of the total funds, and the balance provided by Brazilian and international banks.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 29, 2017.


  • “Brazil Now Facing A Major Crisis”: Police Says It Has Evidence President Temer Received Bribes

    Update: and right on time, the Brazilian house speaker confirmed that the worst case scenario – for Temer – is on the table:
    BRAZIL NOW FACING MAJOR CRISIS: HOUSE SPEAKER MAIA BRAZIL JUDGE REJECTS TEMER CRIMINAL COMPLAINT VS JBS’S BATISTA * * *
    Almost exactly one month after Brazil’s stock market crashed, and the Real plunged after the country’s never-ending political drama made a triumphal return following accusations that president Michel Temer had encouraged a “hush money” bribe to former House Speaker Eduardo Cunha in return for not getting dragged into the Carwash scandal, on Tuesday afternoon, Brazil’s federal police force said it has found evidence that the embattled president received bribes to help businesses, Brazil’s O Globo reported.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 20, 2017.


  • Fading Further and Further Back Toward 2016

    Earlier this month, the BEA estimated that Disposable Personal Income in the US was $14.4 trillion (SAAR) for April 2017. If the unemployment rate were truly 4.3% as the BLS says, there is no way DPI would be anywhere near to that low level. It would instead total closer to the pre-crisis baseline which in April would have been $19.0 trillion. Even if we factor retiring Baby Boomers in a realistic manner, say $18 trillion instead, what does the world look like with that additional $3.6 trillion of American income?
    It is the one that is currently being described, that which earlier this year was supposed to set up the bond market for a 1994-style ‘massacre.’ Reflation was not just some nebulous idea, though it arose out of nothing but faith, rather it was the belief in a realistic trajectory back to $19 or even $18 trillion in income (maybe $17 trillion). At that level of future income, a lot of deficiency about the current economy would quickly vanish.
    That would apply, of course, to far more than domestic circumstances. The rest of the world would be awash in US demand in terms of actual spending (the strong consumer in fact rather than just constant description). The feedback and spillover effects would restart what are now painfully broken foreign economies (not just in Brazil).

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.


  • Around the world, beer consumption is falling

    THE world appears to have passed peak booze. The volume of alcoholic drinks consumed globally fell by 1.4% in 2016, to 250bn litres, according to IWSR, a research firm. It is the second consecutive year of decline, and only the third since data started to be collected in 1994. The drop-off is caused by people drinking less beer, which accounts for three-quarters of all alcohol drunk by volume. Worldwide beer consumption shrank by 1.8% to 185bn litres last year. Yet because the drinking-age population of the world grew by 1% in that time, beer consumption per drinking-age adult declined even more, by 3.2%. The overall decline is almost entirely because of downturns in three of the five biggest markets. China, Brazil and Russia accounted for 99.6% of the global decrease in the volume of beer drunk in 2016.
    Both economics and changing tastes play a part. China overtook America to become the world’s biggest market for beer by volume in 2001. It now quaffs a quarter of all beer. But consumption per person peaked in 2013 and dropped further last year. One reason is that Chinese drinkers are turning away from cheap local brews towards premium products and imported beers. Beer’s appeal is also waning among older drinkers. Over-30s are moving to wine and over-40s favour baiju, the national spirit. Elsewhere, recessions have hit beer-drinkers’ pockets. In both Brazil and Russia, consumption by the average adult fell by 7%.
    Beer-drinking patterns also change as countries grow richer. In a study in 2016, Liesbeth Colen and Johan Swinnen of the University of Leuven examined the effects of income growth and globalisation on beer consumption in 80 countries between 1961 and 2009. They found that as GDP per person increased in poorer countries, beer became more popular. But when it reached around $27,000 per person, consumption began to fall again.
    For decades, consumers in emerging markets have driven beer sales ever upwards. The latest figures suggest that the froth is coming off.

    This post was published at The Economist


  • “If You Blinked, You Missed The Euro Correction”

    As SocGen’s Kit Juckes writes in his daily FX note, the currency market has been a “mess to end May”, noting that the month is ending on mixed note, but the themes of the month are pretty clear: the Euro and its satellite currencies were the big winners this month, benefitting from decent economic data, reduced political risk and a focus on the ECB’s timorous exit from crisis policy settings. The big losers were the Brazilian real (politic) and Sterling (politics). In between that lot, the ZAR benefited from political optimism, NZD from higher milk prices, AUD suffered from weak iron ore prices and JPY has held up reasonably well, just as the dollar has struggled somewhat under the weight of depressed bond yields.
    Looking at the Euro specifically, Juckes writes that the common currency rally is being slowed down by the build-up of big long positions, the gap between how far the currency has gone and the move in relative yields, and the rhetoric of the ECB President. All of which argue for buying a corrective dip which hasn’t really happened yet. The pull-backs so far have been modest, testimony to the underlying strength of the upward trend. EUR/JPY has disappointed of late, after rallying sharply from mid-April to mid-May, but it remains the most attractive Euro long other than EUR/GBP.
    Further, the SocGen strategist higlights the importance of politics as a market driver which “can’t be overstated.”

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 31, 2017.