Weekly Gold Chart – Updated

I have posted this chart fairly regularly now for some time to give a more intermediate term look at the gold market for those who are interested. Not a single thing has changed for gold in over a year now. The metal is still trapped within a broad range defined on the chart. It is now working its way down toward the bottom of the range having failed to make any new weekly high. As a matter of fact, the pattern for gold has been one of LOWER HIGHS for over a year now within that range. That is suggestive of weakness. This week the HIGHER LOW was broken and while it is still not the end of the trading session for Friday, the metal is threatening to put in a LOWER LOW within the range compared to the May close. That is a sign that the odds favor a move down towards $1200 unless it swiftly reverses and regains the $1240 level in a convincing fashion.

This post was published at Trader Dan Norcini on Thursday, September 11, 2014.

Antidote to an Equity Realignment? Invest in Fundamentally New Industries

Professional Investors Are Preparing For A Stock Market Crash … It looks like a growing number of professional investors are preparing for a stock market crash, as hedge fund filings for the second quarter show a spike in defensive positions. In particular, legendary billionaire George Soros made a huge bet against the market. He increased his short position on the Standard & Poor’s 500 by a startling 605%. The 9.69 million new shares of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE Arca: SPY) put options gave Soros a total of 11.29 million shares and made it the biggest holding in his portfolio. – ETFDailyNews
Dominant Social Theme: This market is going down, down, down … Or maybe not …
Free-Market Analysis: According to this article, there may be a crash in the fall, but investors should protect themselves, stay in the market and treat a crash as a buying opportunity.
The market is having a long-term bull run, according to this article, and investors should be expecting to take profits for many years to come.
This may be an overly optimistic perspective about what’s going on. But that’s the takeaway …

This post was published at The Daily Bell on September 12, 2014.

RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence

Tale of Two Countries
Fearmongering in Scotland hits fever pitch as RBS and four other banks threaten to leave the country if Scotland votes “Yes” for independence.
In Spain, Catalans staged a huge protest in favor of independence. The Spanish government hopes Scotland will vote “No” even though it seeks to halt a Catalan vote altogether.
Let’s take a close look at these stories starting with Scotland.
RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes
On the fearmongering front, RBS warns it would relocate to England if Scots vote Yes.
Royal Bank of Scotland led a host of banks employing more than 35,000 people in Scotland who warned that they would relocate their headquarters south of the border in the event of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum next week.
‘RBS believes that it would be necessary to re-domicile the bank’s holding company and its primary rated operating entity (The Royal Bank of Scotland plc) to England,’ it said in a statement on Thursday.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Friday, September 12, 2014.

What If the Easy Money Is Now on the Bear Side?

Complacent melt-ups aren’t just boring–they’re not very profitable.
File this under Devil’s Advocate: what if the easy money in the stock market is no longer the “guaranteed” Bull melt-up but the Bearish bet on a sudden air pocket?Just as a thought experiment, put yourself in the shoes of the money managers who have the leverage to move the markets.
You probably know the drill: program your trading bots to recognize every technical trading scheme’s key support and resistance levels, and then unleash huge futures/options buys after hours or pre-open so the market jumps in the direction that makes you the most money. Unleashing a tsunami of buy orders forces Bears to cover their bets on a decline (shorts), goosing the market higher. The melt-up depends not just on trading bots hammering the market in the desired direction with massive buy orders–it depends on a supply of nervous Bears to cover their shorts by buying stocks. This buying triggers others’ trading bots to buy into the rally.
Short-covering is an essential source of the self-reinforcing buying that has kept the U. S. market melting up for years without any gyrations down of more than a few percentage points.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2014.

Panic On The Streets Of London … Can Scotland Ever Be The Same Again?

Panic On The Streets Of London … Can Scotland Ever Be The Same Again? There is now less than one week of campaigning remaining before the Scottish Independence Referendum, which takes place next Thursday, September 18.

The pro-union ‘no’ vote campaign is back in the lead this week after the latest opinion poll from pollsters YouGov put them at 52%, marginally ahead of the pro-independence ‘yes’ campaign.
The referendum question being asked is simply ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’
After being ahead significantly since the outset of the independence campaign, the pro-union side was abruptly shocked last weekend when the pro-independence side took the lead based on an opinion poll result, also from YouGov, released on Saturday, September 6.

This post was published at Gold Core on 12 September 2014.

Currency turbulence

You’d think that the US dollar has suddenly become strong, and the chart below of the other three major currencies confirms it. The US dollar is the risk-free currency for international accounting, because it is the currency on which all the others are based. And it is clear that three months ago dollar exchange rates against the three currencies shown began to strengthen notably. However, each of the currencies in the chart has its own specific problems driving it weaker. The yen is the embodiment of financial kamikaze, with the Abe government destroying it through debasement as a cover-up for a budget deficit that is beyond its control. The pound is being poleaxed by a campaign to keep Scotland in the union which has backfired, plus a deferral of interest rate expectations. And the euro sports negative deposit rates in the belief they will cure the Eurozone’s gathering slump, which if it develops unchecked will threaten the stability of Europe’s banks. So far this has been mainly a race to the bottom, with the dollar on the side-lines. The US economy, which is officially due to recover (as it has been expected to every year from 2008) looks like it’s still going nowhere. Indeed, if you apply a more realistic deflator than the one that is officially calculated, there is a strong argument that the US has never recovered since the Lehman crisis.

This post was published at GoldMoney on 12 September 2014.

Gold engagement ring from 17th Century discovered lying in field by pensioner

A gold engagement ring from the 17th Century has been unearthed by a pensioner with a metal detector – more than 300 years after it was lost. 
Tom Ross, 69, was sweeping his metal detector over a ploughed farmer's field near Newtownabbey in County Antrim, Northern Ireland, when he stumbled across the item.
The rare 'posy' ring, which dates back to the late 1600s and is 85 per cent gold, bears the Old English inscription 'I noght on gift bot gifer', or 'Look not on the gift, but the giver'. Also known as a 'betrothal' ring, it pre-dates the custom of proposing with an engagement ring, but essentially served the same purpose.
Men and women exchanged the items from the 1500s onwards to symbolise their future commitment to each other.

This post was published at Daily Mail

China gold group, WGC ink co-operative agreement

The World Gold Council (WGC), the London headquartered market development organisation for the gold industry, and the China Gold Association have signed a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation Agreement’, at the official launch of the China Gold Congress & Expo 2014 in Beijing.
The aim of the agreement is stated to be to enhance the global understanding of the gold market and supply chain and China’s role within it through the exchange of research, data insights and developing innovations for gold in investment, technology and jewellery.
One hopes that this may give WGC researchers perhaps a better understanding of the Chinese gold supply and demand situation than seems to be the case at present where known import figures, stated gold demand figures and published data out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange seem to suggest a wide disparity in apparent demand in particular. However given the China Gold Association’s ties with the Chinese government, as will have any Chinese trade organisation, which may have an agenda to only let Western organisations, like the WGC, know what it wants them to know, then the co-operation agreement might not actually provide a great deal of new information on these disparities, although any such regular contact should be helpful.
It is also highly unlikely to throw any new light on whether the Chinese Central Bank is surreptitiously increasing its gold reserves without reporting them to the IMF – as many Western analysts believe – or not. We will almost certainly have to wait until the Chinese government deems it politic to announce any reserve upgrade, if any, before we know for sure.

This post was published at Mineweb

How important is the financial sector to Scotland’s economy?

Scotland has a long, rich history in the financial sector. Royal Bank of Scotland has been based there for nearly 300 years, while money manager Standard Life has had its headquarters in Scotland for 189 years.
But several Scottish-based financial institutions have now said they will relocate to England if Scottish voters back the break-up of the UK in next week's referendum on independence.
Uncertainty over the currency an independent Scotland would use, who would be the lender of last resort for Scottish banks and who would regulate them have led to concerns of "capital flight" – where deposits are moved out of the country.
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond denied uncertainty in the markets was caused by the Scottish government's stance on a shared currency, and instead blamed "the unreasonable posture of the UK government who have refused to discuss this at any stage throughout the last two years".

This post was published at BBC

Foreclosure Activity Rises for Second Straight Month in August: RealtyTrac

U.S. foreclosure activity jumped in August for the second consecutive month as banks started the process on more properties and scheduled more housing auctions, industry firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
Overall, 116,913 properties were at some stage of the foreclosure process, which includes foreclosure notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, the group said.
That pushed overall activity up 7 percent from July, it said. From a year ago, foreclosure activity was down 9 percent.
Lenders started the foreclosure process on about 55,000 properties in August, up 12 percent from July, but unchanged from a year ago. It was the second consecutive month in which foreclosure starts were up month-over-month.

This post was published at Money News

American credit-card debt hits a post-recession high

U.S. consumers may be relying too heavily on their plastic.
Americans added $28.2 billion to their credit cards in the second quarter of 2014, the largest amount in the last six years and nearly 200% more than in the second quarter of 2009, when the economy emerged from the depths of the Great Recession, according to new research from personal finance website CardHub.com. After paying off $32.5 billion owed during the first quarter of 2014, consumers ran up roughly 86% more debt during the following quarter.
The average household’s credit-card balance now stands at $6,802, up slightly from $6,628 in the first quarter, but still down from $8,431 at the end of 2008. By the end of the year, this figure is expected to exceed $7,000, reaching levels not seen since the end of 2010. U.S. consumers will be roughly $1,300 away from the credit card debt “tipping point,” where minimum payments become unsustainable and delinquencies skyrocket, the report says.

This post was published at Market Watch

Why the Safe Gains in US Stocks Are Behind Us

Looking at the Big Picture Step back. Look at the big picture. Stocks are near record highs. Investor sentiment has never been more bullish. The VIX, which shows the options market’s expectation of 30-day volatility in stocks, is near record lows.
But the US stock market – broadly measured by the S&P 500 – is ‘above the line’ of our Simplified Trading System (STS). It’s trading above 20 times reported earnings. The index could go much higher. But our simple approach tells us that the safe gains are behind us. It is better to be out than in.

Yesterday, we imagined a man who had lived and invested throughout the entire 20th century. Today, we meet a man, in the flesh, who almost did that … a man 42 years older than we are. He makes 66 seem like childhood …
Irving Kahn is 108, to be exact. Born in 1906, he began investing before the 1929 Crash. He spotted the anomaly… and decided to take advantage of it. He sold US stocks short.
‘I borrowed money from an in-law who was certain I would lose it but was still kind enough to lend it. He said only a fool would bet against the bull market.’

This post was published at Acting-Man on September 11, 2014.

Futures Flat On Russia Sanctions Round 3 Day

While today’s key news event will be the preannounced latest, third, round of anti-Russian sanctions and the Russian retaliation, the reality as DB notes, is that the market seems to be seeing “some fatigue” in this story with the ECB, Scotland and next week’s Fed meeting taking center stage. As a result, and ahead of expectations of change in Fed language which should carry a more hawkish tone, the dollar has been bid up some more overnight, leading to fresh multi-year highs in the USDJPY, and the now-paired TSY trade, with 10Y yields up to 2.57%, although this may now be in short-term oversold territory. The latest Scottish poll appears to have dented some of the “Yes” momentum, with 52% of the polled saying they would vote No in the referendum, although right now neither side has a clear majority when factoring in the undecideds: which means it will come down to the wire next week, with clear implications for Europe’s secessionist movements if the Yes vote still manages to prevail, not to mention massive ramifications for the UK.
Overnight in Asia, China’s latest lending data was released. China’s credit growth rebounded sharply in August following a weak July. New loans in August came in at RMB702.5bn up from RMB385.2bn in July and was around market consensus. M2 was up 12.8pct yoy, lower than the 13.5yoy growth in July (and consensus) but this was previewed by Premier Li’s speech earlier this week. Markets are range bound in the Asia with the Nikkei up 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.2% although the Hang Seng is down -0.3%. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.2% to 146. Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, Hang Seng down 0.3%, Kospi up 0.4%, Shanghai Composite up 0.9%, ASX down 0.3%, Sensex up 0%
European equities trade mixed, with minor outperformance in both the FTSE-100 and the IBEX-35 as recent independence campaigns from Scotland and Catalonia lose some steam. Yesterday’s YouGov poll showed Salmond’s Independence bid only briefly holding the lead over the ‘No’ vote, as unionists reclaimed the top spot just six days away from referendum polling. Nonetheless, Spain’s IBEX-35 has suffered throughout the week on Catalonia’s break-up bid, with today’s upside only trimming the weekly losses to 2.2%. 14 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise. 55.7% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 41.2% decline. Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 0.2%, CAC 40 -0.2%, DAX -0.3%, IBEX 0.3%, FTSEMIB 0%, SMI -0.3%.
Looking to the day ahead, in Europe we have the Spanish August inflation read (expected in at 0.1% MoM), Italian and euro area July Industrial Production (expected in at -0.2% and 0.7% MoM). In the US we have August Retail Sales reads with the advanced MoM expected in at 0.6%, the September UoM Confidence read (expected at 83.3) and July Business Inventories data (expected in at 0.4%). In geopolitics, today sees the strengthened EU sanctions on Russia take effect. Implementation had been delayed in light of the ceasefire announcements last week but yesterday leaders and diplomats agreed to now bring them in. The US looks set to follow suit and President Obama yesterday said he would provide more details today. We seem to be seeing some fatigue in this story with the ECB, Scotland and next week’s Fed meeting taking center stage. However the regions problems are clearly yet to be resolved and the aim of bringing in the new sanctions today is to keep up pressure on Russia (BBC). Russia has said it is preparing its own sanctions in response.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/12/2014.

Ed Would Say, ‘Enjoy The Big Shoe!’ …Are You Choosing To?

Here is a graph showing the price of gold FINALLY reaching GOLD’s ‘Long-Term Line of Support’ for London PM Gold! One would expect that gold would begin its upward climb but usually the ‘Masters of Manipulation’ step in to quell gold’s direction. Now we will just have to sit back, watch the ‘big shoe’and continue stacking at these prices!

If you have NOT already divested of your accumulation of this quarter’s worthless paper by locking in with SPOT at $18.69 and Silver Eagles at $20.99 or Silver Buffalo’s at $19.54 be sure to lock in A. S. AP. Rule of thumb is to pay as little as you can over SPOT and with ratio’s at 66:1 silver is by far the favorite to increase in value!
Also check your current dealers BBB rating and scroll down to read any complaints, most customers see the rating and fail to do so. Customers have reported to me that more than a handful of big name dealers whom they have dealt with in the past have had their BBB ratings revoked for a myriad of reasons such as baiting and switching to numismatics of questionable value, non-shipment or shipping that has taken several months. Some are being sued for conflict of interests, closing, filing for bankruptcy or they have been reported to ‘Rip-Off Reports’ for their misdeeds. Bigger isn’t necessarily better and besides they usually require a booklet of information on you their customers.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 11, 2014.

How to Make Goods More Expensive: Target Truckers

Enduring the bureaucratic and regulation-ridden work environment, US truckers work tooth-and-nail to keep supply chains moving and on schedule. Because of regulatory interference, US trucking outfits are among the few remaining industries that are still largely run and/or owned by mom-and-pop operations. According to theAmerican Trucking Association, nearly 70 percent of all goods moved in the US are transported on trucks. That comes to almost $670 billion in real, physical goods, from durable and manufactured goods, to finished parts for assembly, to consumer goods.
There are about 3.5 million truck drivers in the US, and of those, 1 in 9 are owner-operators. Trucking represents 84 percent of all commercial transport revenue, and 68 percent of all freight tonnage in America. Rail, on the other hand, makes up less than 6 percent of freight tonnage transport.
In 2009, $33.1 billion was paid by commercial trucks for federal and state highway taxes. It makes up roughly 5 percent of GDP, and 1 out of 13 private sector employees are involved in the trucking industry, not just drivers but office staff, warehouse, and engine and truck manufacturers. Go one step more and include accountants, attorneys, insurance companies, and other related services.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Friday, September 12, 2014.

Gold Sentiment Plunges to Summer 2013 Levels

Newsletter Writers Turn Very Bearish This is a little addendum to our recent gold update. Shortly after we had posted it, Mark Hulbert published an article at Marketwatch regarding the recent moves in the Gold Newsletter Writer Sentiment Index (HGNSI). Note here that this sentiment measure must be seen in the context of market action. As we have pointed out previously, there have been a number of very significant ‘misses’ of this indicator, especially in early 2003 and early 2004, when following its message would have been a grave mistake.
However, there is also the fact to consider that today’s gold-focused newsletter writers are probably not the same bunch that was active 10 years ago. Many of those who were active in 2003 had survived a 20 year long bear market, so their collective judgment was at times actually quite good.
To Mr. Hulbert’s credit, we must concede that his indicator has worked better in recent years, and his interpretations of it in the course of this year have largely been on the mark. That’s actually a good thing, as the indicator is currently showing an extreme in negative sentiment.
Here is the chart:

Hulbert Gold Newsletter Writer Sentiment Index – currently it stands at – 40.6%

This post was published at Acting-Man on September 11, 2014.

Bankers Trying to Manipulate Elections in Scotland for Profit

Several of the bankers are threatening to leave Scotland if they vote for separation. These sly bankers said the same shit when the UK did not join the Euro. What these crafty untrustworthy people are really saying is they have UK debt and they fear it will collapse if Scotland leaves. In truth, they are part of the government scare-team and any bank that threatens that should be thrown out of Scotland anyhow. This is not what is good for Britain or Scotland, this is all about the banks not losing money on their bond holdings. Typical abuse of position and any bank taking that position does not deserve a license.
If Scotland stays out of the EU and UK, and it moves away from Marx and toward Adam Smith, it will become the new Switzerland for the 21st century and then watch all the bankers trying to get into to Scotland. I would void any banking license of a bank that puts out this outright propaganda for they are once again trying to manipulate society to line their pockets.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on September 11, 2014.

Same $#!%, Different PIIGS

Desperate governments call for desperate measures.
Unfortunately for us, citizens often end up paying for the mistakes of their governments. That’s not how it should be but, sometimes, that’s how it is. If and a when a government is no longer able to meet its obligations, capital controls, broad wealth confiscation measures, and other extreme burdens are often considered.
Spanish bond yields just fell to their lowest levels in history but does that mean that your money is safe there? Absolutely not. It means that investors are complacent, not that Spain’s political risk has diminished.
Portugal is in the same boat. While its borrowing costs continue to fall, its prospects for economic growth and its financial position continue to worsen. If you’ve got assets in Portugal then now would be a good time to contemplate how safe they really are. Unless you like bail-ins, that is.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/11/2014.

1.8 Million Protest in Spain Demanding Separation Like Scotland

This was the largest demonstration in the history of Barcelona with 1,8 million people showing up exceeding all previous records. Demonstrators were waving independence flags and wearing yellow-and-red shirts with the phrase ‘Now is the time’ shouting’Independencia!’ as they swarmed into the semiautonomous area in northeastern Spain that hails Barcelona as its capital. What is clear, we are seeing the beginning stages of what we have warned about – the rise of civil unrest that leaded to nations dividing or being overthrown in revolutions. What has taken place in Scotland is by no means going unnoticed.
‘Independence, independence’, has been the new cry of the people today in Spain in the center of the Catalan capital. Two main roads that converge at a place filled over a distance of seven miles with people. Here, a ‘V’ for ‘Victoria’ (Victory) was formed.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sept 11, 2014.

In Venezuela First They Came For The Toilet Paper; Then They Came For The News Paper…

Bidet sales across Venezuela are set to soar as just months after running out of toilet paper, AP reports that Venezuela’s oldest newspaper is shutting down due to falling advertising, mounting inflation and a lack of basic materials. In addition, at least nine Venezuelan regional newspapers have stopped circulation because of the shortages. Of course, this is likely great news for President Maduro who can now manage his people’s minds direct from his Twitter feed… welcome to socialist utopia.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/11/2014.