The Seven Year Cycle Of Economic Crashes That Everyone Is Talking About

Large numbers of people believe that an economic crash is coming next year based on a seven year cycle of economic crashes that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. What I am about to share with you is very controversial. Some of you will love it, and some of you will think that it is utter rubbish. I will just present this information and let you decide for yourself what you want to think about it. In my previous article entitled “If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States“, I discussed many of the economic cycle theories that all seem to agree that we are on the verge of a major economic downturn in this country. But there is an economic cycle that I did not mention in that article that a lot of people are talking about right now. And if this cycle holds up once again in 2015, it will be really bad news for the U. S. economy.
Looking back, the most recent financial crisis that we experienced was back in 2008. Lehman Brothers collapsed, the stock market crashed and we were plunged into the worst recession that we have experienced as a nation since the Great Depression. You can see what happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the chart that I have posted below…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on September 2nd, 2014.

The Strong ‘Buy’ Signal In The Metals/Miners Got Stronger Today

One of the rules by which the elite aristocrats abide is they consider it rude to not issue a warning before they do something bad to us. They’re like criminals with manners. In other words, it’s gauche to flush the toilet while the serfs are in the shower without giving us a ‘heads up.’ – John Titus, engineer and attorney
What worries me the most in the midst of all of this geopolitical chaos going on right now is the message in this article written by Henry Kissinger and published by the Wall Street Journal: Henry Kissinger On The Assembly Of The New World Order.
The title alone in conjunction with the man writing it should be enough to frighten everyone into moving as much as they can OUT of the system and into precious metals. Kissinger must be seriously insane with the quest for complete global power to be consolidated into the hands of a few U. S. corporate and military complex elitists.
The foundation of his argument is based on the two assertions of ‘fact’ he makes which are probably the biggest lies ever told in the history of organized civilization:

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on September 2, 2014.

30 Million Americans On Antidepressants And 21 Other Facts About America’s Endless Pharmaceutical Nightmare

Has there ever been a nation more hooked on drugs than the United States? And I am not just talking about illegal drugs – the truth is that the number of Americans addicted to legal drugs is far greater than the number of Americans addicted to illegal drugs. As you will read about below, more than 30 million Americans are currently on antidepressants and doctors in the U. S. wrote more than 250 million prescriptions for painkillers last year. Sadly, most people got hooked on these drugs very innocently. They trusted that their doctors would never prescribe something for them that would be harmful, and they trusted that the federal government would never approve any drugs that were not safe. And once the drug companies get you hooked, they often have you for life. You see, the reality of the matter is that some of these ‘legal drugs’ are actually some of the most addictive substances on the entire planet. And when they start raising the prices on those drugs, there isn’t much that the addicts can do about it. It is a brutally efficient business model, and the pharmaceutical industry guards their territory fiercely. Very powerful people will often do some really crazy things when there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake. The following are 22 facts about America’s endless pharmaceutical nightmare that everyone should know…

This post was published at End Of The American Dream on September 2nd, 2014.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Nearly 2%

The Metals:
Gold dropped $24.54 to as low as $1262.76 by midmorning in New York before it bounced back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 1.72%. Silver slipped to as low as $19.093 and ended with a loss of 1.64%.
Euro gold fell to about 964, platinum lost $13 to $1406, and copper remained at about $3.15.
Gold and silver equities fell about 3% by late morning and remained near that level into the close.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 2 September 2014.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Cap, Cap, Pounce

Welcome to September. Ouch. The spotlight is now on silver, and less so on gold. Both metals took a hit that was fairly obvious starting late last night. I was surprised it did not go deeper. It is tough to make a real short term bullish case until we break this pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Big amount of silver get shoved around the plate at the Comex, so we will have to shift gears a bit and adjust to reports with much bigger numbers of ounces involved. Today was the first day. Let’s see how the rest of the month goes.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 SEPTEMBER 2014.

China Will Revise Its GDP Definition Until Its Hits Government “Growth Targets”, Goldman Explains

Previously we have commented that when all it takes for a country to “hit” its GDP target, is to adjust said definition by adding the benefit of estimated ancillary items as prostitution and drugs, GDP loses all relevancy and meaning in its transformation to an arbitrary, goalseeked policy measurement and validation tool straight out of China’s Department of Truth. After all how else would the Spanish political kleptocracy boast the “favorable” impact of its disastrous policies if it wasn’t for a slew of recent definitional revisions. And yet, all throughout our commentary we were doing so tongue-in-cheek: after all, it is taboo for the very serious economists to discuss the hilarious systemic failures that allow their most prized indicator of “growth” to become a mockery of fringe tinfoil blogs.
At least, it was taboo until now, because moments ago, in an example of “very serious phrasing”, none other than the bank that does god’s work on earth (especially when it means providing off balance sheet financing for the bank of the Holy Spirit), just reported that the reason why China will hit its growth target is because of, drumroll, its fudged GDP. Only Goldman is far more serious when it says all of this, with the result being just too hilarious for words: to wit: “In the coming months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics is to make adjustments to the methodology used to calculate GDP. These adjustments are likely to boost real GDP growth by 0.1-0.2pp, thereby making it easier for the government to reach its goal of ‘around 7.5%’ GDP growth in 2014.“
But wait there’s more, because the biggest adjusted “contributor” to China’s economy will be the retroactive benefit from R&D that previously was treated as a cost rather than an “investment.” Yup:research and development, which in China has a different name: Piracy and Reverse Engineering, only R&D is sexier than P&RE.
Which brings us to the question of the day: have we finally gone full econotard? Or is changing the rules to hit your target, while fabricating the dumbest possible adjustments, now considered very serious economic policy?
Full note from Goldman Sachs, whose humor value is far higher than the author intended:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

I Didn’t Believe the IRS Anyway

Lois Lerner’s emails are back from the dead – sort of. The former IRS official’s BlackBerry, however, is still long gone. The IRS intentionally destroyed it in June 2012 (after congressional staffers interviewed Lerner about the IRS targeting conservative groups) as the Deputy Assistant Chief Counsel acknowledged in a recent sworn declaration.
We’ve all met someone we just don’t trust but don’t know why. There’s often a pretty good reason to feel that way.
Has someone ever made an insincere attempt to flatter you? Their words might be complimentary, but their body language, tone, and/or context let you know the compliment is phony. Does this guy really think I’m that stupid?
So, up goes your trust wall. If he’ll lie about this, he’ll lie about anything.
The IRS debacle is a prime example of why we build trust walls. The emails Congress requested had (supposedly) been deleted when several hard drives crashed. I asked my colleague Alex Daley (our in-house technology guru) what the probability was of that happening. Here’s what he had to say:
Everyone who ever owned a computer knows that hard drives are finicky beasts. In fact, Google uses a LOT of hard drives and so they have published all kinds of research on their failure rates. The gist: there’s about a 1 in 36 chance a hard drive fails in any given month. The math says then that if the IRS was practicing good data center management practices – we have to assume, however silly it might seem, that the agency responsible for holding the most personal information on American citizens outside the NSA is following best practices – then the chance of seven hard drives failing at the same time and wiping out the data on them is about 1 in 78 billion.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 2 September 2014.

The Great U.S. Retirement Asset Bubble vs Physical Gold Investment

Americans are more deluded than ever as the total value of the U. S. Retirement Market hits a new record. According to the data released by the ICI – Investment Company Institute, total U. S. Retirement Assets in first quarter of 2014 are valued at a stunning $23 trillion, up from $22.7 trillion in Q4 2013.
Not only are U. S. Retirement Assets reaching new record highs, so is the sentiment by its member participants. This report put out by the ICI, ‘Our Strong Retirement System – An American Success Story’ stated:
Americans Report High Levels of Confidence in the 401(k) System
Americans have a very favorable view of the employer-sponsored 401(k) and other DC plans. Such confidence is a powerful indicator of the value American workers and retirees place on the 401(k) system.
In a survey of 4,000 households conducted for ICI in the winter of 2012/2013, 63% of respondents said that they have a ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ favorable impression of 401(k) and similar retirement accounts (see figure below).38 That support rose to 76% among households that held a DC plan account or an IRA.39 Americans have expressed similarly positive views in surveys conducted since late 2008, despite the stock market decline from late 2007 to early 2009.
It’s nice to know that Americans have a HIGH LEVEL of confidence in their 401K plans. Thus, it makes perfect sense that they continue to invest their hard-earned fiat money into a system that promises them GOLDEN RETURNS. Unfortunately, Americans have no idea whatsoever that they are throwing good fiat money (if there is such a thing) into one of the GREATEST PONZI SCHEMES in history.
I assumed that it was mostly the middle-aged and older Americans that continued to invest in the retirement system. Why wouldn’t they? They see retirement not too far around the corner so it only makes sense to continue contributing.
However, Main Stream Media has also bamboozled the younger folks, as they too have taken the Paper Retirement Asset System….. HOOK, LINE and SINKER. Here is another wonderful piece of propaganda from the same report linked above:

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on Sept 2, 2014.

Did Someone Pay Google News to Run This Group of News Stories?

Am I supposed to believe that Google News’ ‘Editors’ Picks’ section is picked for any other reason than money? Consider today’s ‘hot’ stories about India’s world of computers.
I don’t know who in the United States would regard these stories as news. But I can well imagine that some PR guy hired by a group of programming firms in India could earn his salary this week by persuading his employers that this in some way will generate income for the Society of Indian Programmers, or some such trade association.
This group of stories appeared about 4:30 a.m., EDT. It was gone by 5 a.m. So, hardly anyone saw these ‘picks.’ If some schnook in India paid money for this, he should be fired.
I look at this section of Google News every day with this question in mind: ‘Who have the folks at Google persuaded to pay good money to run stories in ‘Editors’ Picks’ today?’ This is because I cannot imagine blocks of stories like this being picked by editors for any reason other than cold, hard, digital cash.
Maybe MSNBC is overlooking a source of much-needed revenue

This post was published at Tea Party Economist on September 2, 2014.

The Eurozone Could Be A Problem For Stocks

A few weeks ago I asked a simple question: “Can The U. S. Economy Stand Alone?”
“The following chart is food for thought. There are extremely high expectations that the U. S. economy will achieve ‘lift off’ in terms of economic growth eventually achieving 3-4% annualized growth rates. The chart below shows the nominal GDP of the Eurozone and U. S.”

Is it possible, that in globally interconnected economy, the U. S. can stand alone?

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 02 September 2014.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Bubble On Through M&A’s and IPO’s

Stocks had a bit of a roller coaster ride today, with techs trying to take the lead on the upside. The markets are sloughing off quite a bit of exogenous risk. But that ought not to surprise us, because that is almost the very definition of a bubble in assets. The fundamentals and realities are ignored, as pieces of paper become increasingly traded on their own without regard to risks. September is going to be marked by the biggest IPO ever. The much awaited Alibaba will be rolling out between now and about September 20. The wiseguys are also going to taking a lot of M&A activity out of the trunks and planting them in the killing fields of a toppy market. Why not? Whether you are paying with cash or stock, your currency is debased. So barring any untoward events I would expect the markets to muddle through to the latter part of September, and then get set up for some sort of correction into October. It will probably not be severe, again unless it is driven by some geopolitical events, because of the midyear elections coming up. Unless of course the financiers decide to engage in some mild form of coup d’tat…

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 02 SEPTEMBER 2014.

Summarizing Morgan Stanley’s Entire “S&P At 3000 In 2020″ Report In One Sentence

Do you believe in miracles? Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker does, having given up on his sane bearish case long ago, he now predicts S&P to 3,000 because “if we get EPS growth of 6% per year from 2015-2020, that would drive S&P 500 earnings to near $170; a 17x multiple would translate into a peak level for the S&P500 near 3000 under this scenario.” So, just some simple math, eh? But he does add, “of course, no one can predict unforeseen shocks to the economy,” but they will never happen, right?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

Presenting the most pitifully capitalized central bank in the West [Hint: It’s NOT the Fed]

En route to South America
As the world’s top central bankers gathered at their annual jamboree recently, the governor of Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, undoubtedly received envious comments from his fellow money magicians for Canada’s perceived status as a global financial safe haven.
This newly found perception was perhaps best exemplified during a Bloomberg interview, when the CEO of RBC Wealth Management – the biggest financial institution in Canada said that ‘Canada is what Switzerland was 20 years ago, and the banks in Canada are what Swiss banks were 20 years ago.’
This is the new flavor of Kool-Aid. Canada is seen as the new banking safe haven and an ‘island of safety and stability’ because of its perceived sound fiscal position, commodity wealth and solid economic performance.
Now, anytime I see central bankers slapping each other on the back, I’m going to be skeptical. But here at Sovereign Man, our conclusions are all data driven… so we dove into the numbers.
First, the Big Daddy himself – Canada’s central bank.
Any strong, healthy banking system requires a central bank with a pristine balance sheet… specifically, substantial net equity as a percentage of assets.
So how strong is the balance sheet for Banque du Canada?

This post was published at Sovereign Man on September 2, 2014.

Volatile Day: Gold, Oil, & Bonds Dump As The Dollar Jumps

Today was a significant day for many markets. For the 7th time in the last 8 months, US Treasuries opened the month with weakness (30Y up 8.5bps, 2Y 3bps from Friday). Significant JPY and GBP weakness pushed the USD Index to fresh 14-month highs ( 0.25% on the week). USD strength smacked gold (-$20 to $1265), silver, and crude oil significantly lower (WTI under $93 and Brent testing towards $100, both down over $3). US equities decoupled (lower) from VIX and JPY-carry around the European close after hitting new all-time highs in the early session (over 2,006 for S&P Futs). Volume was better (but then it was a down day). Despite oil weakness, Trannies took off leading the day (with Dow and S&P closing lower from Friday). Credit traded with stocks for most of the day but ignored the late-day VWAP ramp in the S&P, closing at its wides. The ubiquitous late-day buying panic saved S&P 2,000… because it can.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

Chinese Commodity Crash Continues, But Pigs Are Flying

When it comes to keeping track of China’s economy, one can listen, and ignore, the official goalseeked and made-up-on-the-fly data released by the government, or one can simply observe the price dynamics of the all-important Chinese commodities sector (because with fixed investment accounting for well over 50% of GDP, the marginal price of the commodities that are used in capital investment tell us all we need to know about the true state of the Chinese economy). It is here where we find that contrary to the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite, which has been trading exclusively on the coattails of the mostrecent unofficial QE by the PBOC, commodity prices in China are actually crashing across the board, which in turn suggest that the real GDP is most likely anywhere between 20% and 60%, if not more, below the “official” 7.5% GDP print.
Here are the charts, alongside some commentary from Bank of America:
Last week, Qinhuangdao (QHD) 5,500k thermal coal price was at RMB480/t, unchanged from the week prior. QHD coal inventory decreased to 5.6mt, down 0.5% wow.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

Gold Seasonality Chart Points To Strong Gains September Through February

The month of September has historically been the strongest for precious metals. Since the start of the current bull market, gold has averaged a gain of 2.6% during the month of September. This is typically followed by a smaller gain of 0.8% in October and then a few more strong months in November, January and February. Taken together, we are exiting the weakest seasonal period for gold (Spring-Summer) and entering into the strongest seasonal period (Fall-Winter).
The following chart has been updated to include data through September of 2014:

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 2, 2014.

Angelo Mozilo Responds To Charges:: ‘No, No, No, We Didn’t Do Anything Wrong’

If Angelo Mozilo’s lawyers are to be believed, the former orange head of Countrywide can not be sued by the government (for civil purposes obviously, no former banker in the US can ever be held criminally liable under the Obama administration) because he is, well, sick. However, the same disease apparently does not prevent the 75 year old from giving 30 minute telephonic interviews, such as this one he granted to Bloomberg’s Max Abelson before Labor Day from his 12,692-square-foot house in Santa Barbara, California.
A brief tangent: “interviews with Mozilo, 75, and three friends show what retirement looks like for a chief executive officer linked to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Remaining out of public view like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s Richard Fuld or Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns Cos., Mozilo has submitted plans for Old West-style offices in California, taught students in Italy about finance, invested in a building in the Arizona desert that houses a Taco Bell and written about his life so that his grandchildren will ‘know the truth.“
So what is the truth?
Here are some of the choice excerpts from the man who is “baffled by a new effort to punish him, proud of past triumphs and incensed by criticism.“

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 09/02/2014.

The Sky Is Falling on Chinese Corporations

The four largest banks in China, the banks that have to officially show big profits and profit growth no matter what because they’re an integral part not only of the government but also of China’s miraculous debt-driven expansion, are showing officially tolerated signs of increasing stress. For perspective, in 2009, following the Lehman moment, as other banks were collapsing and were bailed out, the profits of these four banks grew even then, if only by a combined 2.9%.
These four mastodons – Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China – admitted to 384.7 billion yuan ($62.6 billion) of bad loans on their book at the end of June, a 13.2% jump from just six months earlier. The jump in bad loans ranged from 11% at Agricultural Bank of China to 17% at Bank of China.
If we suspend our disbelief in Chinese numbers, bank numbers in general, and Chinese bank numbers in particular, for a very brief moment and accept them temporarily as if these bad-loan numbers were actually something close to reality, rather than something ludicrously beautified, they would amount to about 1% of total lending by these banks. And it’s gnawing at their profits: their relentless state-mandated rise slowed to 9.6% over prior year.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ September 2, 2014.

Time to scale into gold

Gold had a horrendous year in 2013 disappointing many of its supporters; however, 2014 started brightly bringing with it much hope for an attempt at achieving new record highs. Gold prices moved quickly from the $1200/oz level to flirt with $1400/oz by mid-March. The summer brought some confusion with gold rallying and falling without much in the way of conviction in either direction. As optimists we can argue that the summer doldrums arrived to take the steam out of the market and that better times lie ahead. The pessimists suggest that gold is struggling to gain some traction and will head lower in the near future, so we will take a brief look at some of the factors that affect gold’s movements.
Factors for consideration regarding the purchase of gold:
Back in June 2006 we listed some the reasons for buying gold as follows;
‘ No new large discoveries of gold deposits dampening supply
‘ Lack of previous investment for gold exploration
‘ It takes up to 10 years to bring a new mine to production

This post was published at TruthinGold on September 2, 2014.