• Are We There Yet? Here Is Howard Marks’ “Bubble Checklist”

    As first reported yesterday, in his latest nearly-30 page memo, a distinctly less optimistic Howard Marks – hardly known for his extreme positions – “sounded the alarm” on markets by laying out a plethora of reasons why investors should be turning far more cautious on the risk, and summarizing his current view on the investing environment with the following 4 bullet points:
    The uncertainties are unusual in terms of number, scale and insolubility in areas including secular economic growth; the impact of central banks; interest rates and inflation; political dysfunction; geopolitical trouble spots; and the long-term impact of technology. In the vast majority of asset classes, prospective returns are just about the lowest they’ve ever been. Asset prices are high across the board. Almost nothing can be bought below its intrinsic value, and there are few bargains. In general the best we can do is look for things that are less over-priced than others. Pro-risk behavior is commonplace, as the majority of investors embrace increased risk as the route to the returns they want or need. Among the items on Marks’ of the items, the one we focused on yesterday, had to do with Marks recurring warnings on ETFs and passive investing. To be sure, he also covered pretty much everything else from equities, to the record low VIX, to FAANG stocks, to record tight credit spreads, to EM debt, to PE and even Bitcoin.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.


  • Asian Metals Market Update: July-27-2017

    Factors which can affect markets
    Short covering and renewed building of long positions will be there in gold and silver if they continue to rise today and tomorrow. If gold rises after the US July nonfarm payrolls (on 4th August) then I expect it to rise to $1508.10 before the end of this quarter. Short term gold and silver are bullish. Medium term to long term will trend after the US NFP will be the key.
    Expectation that the pace of interest rate hikes will be slower than markets discounted resulted in a crash of US dollar and zoom of gold. Copper had already risen before the FOMC so the impact was not felt. Next in line is next week’s US July nonfarm payrolls. Interest rate chapter of the Federal Reserve is closed for now. Technically a higher close today and tomorrow in gold, silver, copper and crude oil can result in another five percent gains by next week.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on 27 July 2017.


  • ‘Low Inflation’ In Not ‘Good’ – It’s Pure Propaganda

    Analysts who advocate a monetary policy that targets ‘low inflation’ are the equivalent of chickens in the barnyard rooting for Colonel Sanders to succeed. This idea that a low level of inflation being good for the economy is beyond moronic.
    The fiat currency money system era was accompanied by the erroneous notion that a general increase in the price of goods and services is ‘inflation.’ But technically this definition is wrong. ‘Inflation’ is the ‘decline in the purchasing power of currency.’ This decline occurs from actions that devalue a currency. Rising prices are the visible evidence of ongoing currency devaluation.
    Currency devaluation occurs when the rate of growth in a country’s money supply exceeds the rate of growth in real wealth output. Simply stated, it’s when the amount of money created exceeds the amount of ‘widgets’ created, where ‘widgets’ is the real wealth output of an economic system.

    This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on July 26, 2017.


  • World Stock Markets, Gold, Boosted By Dovish FOMC Statement Wed. PM

    (Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight in the wake of a U. S. Federal Reserve meeting that produced a statement most of the markets deemed as leaning to the dovish side of U. S. monetary policy. Recent corporate earnings reports have also been mostly upbeat. U. S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher and record high openings when the New York day session begins.
    Gold is posting solid gains Thursday in the wake of the dovish Fed statement that pushed the U. S. dollar index to a 13-month low. Reports overnight said India is moving to make ‘paper’ gold (such as sovereign gold bonds) more attractive to its domestic investors, in order to reduce demand for actual gold bullion.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 27, 2017.


  • Krona Sinks After Swedish PM Refuses To Resign, Reshuffles Cabinet Over “Disastrous Leak”

    A brief (ECB/Fed-driven) sigh of relief yesterday in the Krona has ended as Sweden’s embattled PM has refused to resignover the government’s “disastrous leak” of the nation’s citizens’ information. Lofven has instead chosen to reshuffle his cabinet, ading “I don’t want political chaos in Sweden, that’s not what we need right now, I will take responsibility and ensure we don’t get a political crisis.”
    However, as Bloomberg reports, opposition members were already signaling they weren’t satisfied with the steps taken, and Lofven’s government remains far from secure.
    The prime minister said Home Affairs Minister Anders Ygeman and Infrastructure Minister Anna Johansson will leave the Cabinet, as parties representing a majority in parliament prepared no-confidence motions against them.
    Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist will stay, Lofven told reporters in Stockholm on Thursday, arguing the specific motion against him was ‘not serious.’
    The announcement follows speculation the prime minister would himself be forced to resign, or call an early election, in response to the deepening scandal. With the reshuffle, Lofven is buying himself time to negotiate with parliament.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.


  • Bankers Ditch 7-Figure Salaries To Climb Aboard The ICO “Rocketship”

    In just a few short months, companies – many of dubious legitimacy – have raised more than a billion dollars through ICOs. Some of the better-hyped offerings in the field of 900 new coins that have been created this year managed to raise tens of millions of dollars in minutes. Investors, who were eager to throw money at the new coins, blindly hoping they would land on the next bitcoin or Ethereum.
    With all this money flying around, it’s no small wonder that bankers in New York, Hong Kong and London are abandoning seven-figure salaries to try their luck in the nascent ICO industry, according to Bloomberg. Stories like this have become commonplace with every passing fintech trend, as bankers, fearing the technology’s potential to disrupt the banking business and threaten their bonus pool, hoping to cash in on the next technology enabled ‘revolution.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 26, 2017.


  • Gold Cycle Outlook Cautiously Bullish

    I am cautiously bullish with today’s new high in Gold and GDX on day 13. Silver also made a new high on day 12 but is still lagging Gold out of the recent low. Note that I have used GLD and SLV in my charts today as the price prints for Gold and Silver on Stockcharts were bogus once again.
    Why cautiously bullish? During the long Bear from the secondary high in 2012, almost every Failed Gold Trading Cycle topped on day 10 or earlier. There were a couple that topped on day 11 and one on day 12 as I recall but day 12 was the longest uptrend we saw into a failed Trading Cycle. That said, I am still cautious as my charts will show that PM’s still have much work to do to break out of this sideways pattern that they have been in for much of 2017.
    Silver, which has already broken below its Dec 2016 YCL does give me some concern here. The Gold/Silver Ratio, as both Plunger and I have posted on, may be indicating that Credit Markets are nervous about something…

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Thursday, 27 July 2017.


  • Are Silver Prices Going Up in 2017?

    This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
    Silver prices today (Wednesday, July 26) are off 0.4% from the one-month highs seen yesterday, but they won’t stay down for long…
    Silver currently trades at $16.43 an ounce, down 0.4% from yesterday’s $16.50 close. That was the highest settlement since June 30, when the metal closed at $16.57, according to data from FactSet.
    The silver price has been volatile in July, with the metal falling 7.2% from $16.57 on July 1 to a 15-month low of $15.37 on July 7. It has since rebounded 6.5% to today’s price of $16.43.
    With volatile price swings this month, our readers want to know if silver prices will keep going higher in 2017. That’s why Money Morning Resource Specialist Peter Krauth – a 20-year veteran of the precious metals markets – is going to share with you his silver price prediction for the rest of the year.

    This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Alex McGuire ‘ July 26, 2017.


  • The Best-Paid U.S. Jobs Requiring No Bachelor’s Degree

    If you’re looking for a well-paid job but you don’t have the money, time and sheer patience required to complete a four-year bachelor degree, do not fear!
    ***
    As Statista’s Nial McCarthy points out, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, plenty of U. S. jobs require an associate degree (usually taking two years), a postsecondary nondegree certificate or a high-school diploma.
    Air-traffic controller offers the highest wages without a bachelor degree with the median annual salary coming to $122,410. Prospective applicants should keep in mind that the job still requires an associate degree.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 26, 2017.


  • Winning: U.S. Crushes All Other Countries In Latest Obesity Study

    When President Trump promised last fall that under a Trump administration America would “would win so much you’ll get tired of winning,” we suspect this is not what he had in mind. According to the latest international obesity study from the Organization For Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), America is by far the fattest nation in the world with just over 38% of the adult population considered ‘obese.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 26, 2017.


  • ‘Junk Equity’ Comes to Haunt $30-billion Startup

    Snap Inc. tried to turn Big Investors into zombies. It didn’t work. Snap Inc., the parent of Snapchat, was dealt another blow today. FTSE Russell, which owns numerous indices for stock markets around the world, including the US Russell 3000, 2000, and 1000 indices, said today that it would exclude Snap from its indices because of Snap’s share structure that denies public investors the right to vote.
    Though Reuters reported the story after the market had already closed, the shares of Snap fell 3.5% today to $13.40, a new all-time low.
    Shares are now 21% below the IPO price of $17. Back then, on March 2, Snap was considered ‘too big to fail.’ It would have such a massive market capitalization that it would be included in all major indices, including the S&P 500 and the MSCI USA Index. Fund managers would be forced to buy Snap shares to keep their funds in line with the indices. Given the relatively small number of shares traded, this buying pressure would push up the price even further. It was simply a matter of creating a lot of artificial demand.

    This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 26, 2017.


  • Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

    – ‘Mother of all debt bubbles’ keeps gold in focus
    – Global debt alert: At all time high of astronomical $217 T
    – India imports ‘phenomenal’ 525 tons in first half of 2017
    – Record investment demand – ETPs record $245B in H1, 17
    – Investors, savers should diversify into ‘safe haven’ gold
    – Gold good ‘store of value’ in coming economic contraction
    by Frank Holmes, U. S. Global Investors

    Gold’s medium- to long-term investment case, I believe, looks even brighter. Many unsettling risks loom on the horizon – not least of which is a record amount of global debt – that could potentially spell trouble for the investor who hasn’t adequately prepared with some allocation in a ‘safe haven.’
    According to the highly-respected Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt levels reached an astronomical $217 trillion in the first quarter of 2017 – that’s 327 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP). Notice that before the financial crisis, global debt was ‘only’ around $150 trillion, meaning we’ve added close to $120 trillion in as little as a decade. Much of the leveraging occurred in emerging markets, specifically China, which is spending big on international infrastructure projects.

    This post was published at Gold Core on July 27, 2017.


  • Scaramucci Implicates Priebus In Now-Deleted Tweet Following ‘Felony’ Leak Of Financial Disclosures

    White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci set of a firestorm of speculation last night with a now deleted tweet following a Politico article containing information he claimed was leaked – revealing his net worth at $85 million.
    ***
    Scaramucci stated that he “will be contacting @FBI and the @TheJusticeDept #swamp @Reince45,” oddly tagging White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 27, 2017.


  • The Globalist One World Currency Will Look A Lot Like Bitcoin

    This week the International Monetary Fund shocked some economic analysts with an announcement that America was “no longer first in the world” as a major economic growth engine. This stinging assertion falls exactly in line with the narrative out of the latest G20 summit; that the U. S. is fading away leaving the door open for countries like Germany and China to join forces and fill the power void. I wrote about this rising relationship between these two nations as well as the ongoing controlled demolition of America’s economy in my article ‘The New World Order Will Begin With Germany And China’.
    I find it interesting that the IMF is once again taking the lead on perpetuating the image of a failing U. S., just as they often push for the concept of a single global currency system to replace the dollar as the world reserve. The most common faulty counter-argument I run into when outlining the globalist agenda to supplant the dollar with the Special Drawing Rights basket system is that “the IMF is a U. S. government controlled organization that would never undermine U. S. authority.” Obviously, the people who make this argument have been thoroughly duped.
    The IMF is constantly and actively undermining America’s economic position, because the IMF is NOT an American controlled organization; its loyalty is to globalism as an ideology as well as the international financiers that dominate central banking. America’s supposed “veto power” within the IMF is incidental and meaningless – it has not stopped the IMF from chasing the replacement of the the dollar structure and forming the fiscal ties that stand as the root of what they sometimes call the “global economic reset.”

    This post was published at Alt-Market on Thursday, 27 July 2017.


  • 26/7/17: Credit booms, busts and the real costs of debt bubbles

    A new BIS Working Paper (No 645) titled ‘Accounting for debt service: the painful legacy of credit booms’ by Mathias Drehmann, Mikael Juselius and Anton Korinek (June 2017 provides a very detailed analysis of the impact of new borrowing by households on future debt service costs and, via the latter, on the economy at large, including the probability of future debt crises.
    According to the top level findings: ‘When taking on new debt, borrowers increase their spending power in the present but commit to a pre-specified future path of debt service, consisting of interest payments and amortizations. In the presence of long-term debt, keeping track of debt service explains why credit-related expansions are systematically followed by downturns several years later.’ In other words, quite naturally, taking on debt today triggers repayments that peak with some time in the future. The growth, peaking and subsequent decline in debt service costs (repayments) triggers a real economic response (reducing future savings, consumption, investment, etc). In other words, with a lag of a few years, current debt take up leads to real economic consequences.
    The authors proceed to describe the ‘lead-lag relationship between new borrowing and debt service’ to establish ’empirically that it provides a systematic transmission channel whereby credit expansions lead to future output losses and higher probability of financial crisis.’

    This post was published at True Economics on Wednesday, July 26, 2017.