31/8/2014: Changes in Employment by Sector

Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of
Irish dependency ratio:Breakdown of population over 15 years of age by their principal economic status: employed, unemployed, in retirement, students, engaged at home, and ‘others’:Unemployment and Participation Rates:Duration of Unemployment, including distribution by Age Cohorts: Here is a summary of changes in employment by sector:

This post was published at True Economics on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

The Fall Is Golden For Bullion Bulls

September is the hottest month of the year for gold prices, rising on average 3% over the past 20 years. As the yellow metal tests hovers off 2-month-lows, Bloomberg notes that “Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks,” ahead of the festival period, which runs from late August to October (andis followed by the wedding season) when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. As GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne notes, “a lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength… They tend to buy and that creates momentum.”
Some color on the week’s Precious Metals Trading from Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney,
The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London’s bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London’s pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York.
It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/31/2014.

The Ultimate Demise Of The Euro Union

The European Union (EU) was created by the Maastricht Treaty on November 1st 1993. It is a political and economic union between European countries which makes its own policies concerning the members’ economies, societies, laws and to some extent security. To some, the EU is an overblown bureaucracy which drains money…and compromises the power of sovereign states. For others, the EU is the best way to meet challenges smaller nations might struggle with – such as economic growth or negotiations with larger nations – and worth surrendering some sovereignty to achieve. Despite many years of integration, opposition remains strong.
ACCORDINGLY, there are signs the EU is teetering on implosion.
Indeed the Euro zone break up is inevitable for numerous reasons.
Unpayable government debts and the massive bailouts in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland logically pave the road to an eventual EU break up.
While it’s convenient to have the one currency for 17 different nations, the nature of those national economies and their strength is quite different and problematic. Indeed and fact it favors wealthy countries like Germany and France at the expense of the PIIGS (i.e. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain).
Another issue is that while the 17 nations share the same Central Bank, they do not have a central control on government budgets, nor central political control.
Paul Griffiths, Colonial First State chief investment officer does not want to put a time frame on the euro zone being shrunk, but says it will eventually be very different from what it is today.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on September 1, 2014.

Eurozone Currency Dispute Intensifies: France Wants More ECB Action to Correct Overvalued Euro, Germany Doesn’t

The currency and fiscal battleground front lines in Europe remains the same. France wants QE, fiscal stimulus, and more leeway on meeting fiscal deficit targets. Germany doesn’t. And the fighting has strengthened.
The idea that ECB can produce nirvana by devaluing the euro is ridiculous. Yet, that’s the battle cry of the day.
Bloomberg reports France Asks for More Action From ECB to Correct Overvalued Euro.
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called for more action from the European Central Bank to lower the value of the euro, amid concerns the 18-nation region might be headed toward deflation.
‘The monetary policy has started to change,’ Valls said today in a speech made at the Socialist Party’s summer school in La Rochelle, France. While he called the ECB’s package of measures taken in June a ‘strong signal,’ he also said that ‘one will have to go even further.’
Valls’s comments come after ECB President Mario Draghi, who’ll meet French President Francois Hollande tomorrow in Paris, signaled that declining inflation expectations are pushing the central bank toward introducing quantitative easing. Policy makers will gather in Frankfurt on Sept. 4 for their monetary-policy meeting.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Dow, Gold and Silver…A Last Stand, A Fake Out And A Surge

The Dow hit a marginal new all time high during the last week. So let’s see where things stand there first.
DOW DAILY CHART

Before we get to the present, let’s take a quick look at the past. We can see the previous top in July was accompanied by triple bearish divergences in several indicators, being the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), Stochastic indicator and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. That led to a significant decline.
Then we had a rally that clipped the previous high by a mere two points. I thought this would be a bear rally but have been proven wrong. However, a profit was taken by identifying the previous top and the start of the rally. Some profit was given back re-shorting but the mistake was quick to be picked up so no major damage was done. It’s nice when you can be wrong and still make money! But that’s chump change as far as I’m concerned. I’m after the big plays.
So that brings us to the present.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on August 31, 2014.

Gold at $2000?

QUESTION: Marty, do you think it is even possible for gold to close at $2,000 by year-end? This just seems to be the same story over and over again.
Thanks
SK
ANSWER: Sorry, no. Here is a chart of gold back to 1264. There is not even a pattern like that, which has EVER taken place. I am really at a loss why gold analysts keep proclaiming the same thing costing people their life savings. Pretending to be a forecaster to just talk people into doing something you would like to see is called manipulation. To keep a client base you have to have correct forecasts. Is this just a process of churning out novices and causing them countless losses to line the pockets of the pros?
Technically, this is the primary support channel in gold. It has not changed. These forecasts for gold are entirely out of context and ignore the entire world economic trends. You cannot even argue gold rises with war for that is not even true. Gold did not rally during World War II because it was fixed. Commodities did not rise because the government put in wage and price controls. This is not a simply if then do this formula. It takes a bit more – if then do this else do that.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 31, 2014.

Gold and silver set to shine as EU revs up sanctions on Russia and then what happens?

old and silver prices will likely head higher this week as the traditionally strong month of September is turbo-charged by the slide towards EU recognition of the war in the Ukraine, with Russia now being told to back off by next weekend or else.
Such threats have not worked in the past. But whether the 28-nation bloc can agree to anything strong enough to really deter Russia from its mission in Ukraine is doubtful.
New sanctions
Measures proposed range from taking away the hosting of the 2018 World Cup to switching off the SWIFT system of banking transfers. The EU will consider the immediate damage to its own business interests and also the probable Russian response, a crippling ban on EU car imports, for example.

This post was published at Arabian Money on 31 August 2014.

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be!

The ‘New’ Silver Fix and the Powers That Be! With Remarks On Texas Governor Rick Perry & Texas Gold! Accompanied by a Warning to Jewelers!
Presented August 2014 by Charles Savoie
Effective mid-month August 2014, the old silver ‘fix’ has been replaced by a new silver ‘fix,’ run jointly by the CME Group, owner of the COMEX, and Thomson Reuters. But has anything of real substance changed? It certainly has not. The new ‘fix’ was awarded by the LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, composed of neer-do-well entities including Barclays Bank, HSBC Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, and additionally Bank of Nova Scotia, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui & Company, and Paris based Societe Generale. For 116 months I’ve routinely made details available about a unique organization known to few as ‘The Pilgrims Society.’ Persons who haven’t become aware of this group can find details on Google search. If you especially want the monetary details relating to this group and precious metals, add my name to theirs in the search box or read ‘The Silver Stealers’ documentary. Therefore, I won’t go into another basic explanation of The Pilgrims Society here. The ringleaders of the megabanks above have all had heavy representation in The Pilgrims Society. The rest have been and remain represented in interlocking groups such as the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg conferences – groups founded by Pilgrims Society members. I am not among the commentators you can read the fastest, because of the nature of these presentations, in depth examinations must be made to substantiate my claims. However, just to make reference to this alleged ‘new’ silver fix, and how bogus it is, I offer this brief report. An oft repeated phrase most have heard, and which drives home how dismal this old world often is, has it that ‘the more things change, the more they remain the same.’ We will not get into a long documentary such as ‘Who Controls The Gold Stealing New York Fed Bank,’ released last February, but will let a few points suffice. This is a mere matter of a group of gangsters who tossed the ball to others in their racketeering organization. Mitsui Global Precious Metals, a Silver Users Association member, is a subsidiary of Mitsui & Company – a Trilateral Commission interest. The Mitsuis and the Rockefellers have been associates since before 1907 when the Japan Society was founded by Rockefeller-Vanderbilt liaison Lindsay Russell as another offshoot of The Pilgrims Society. The Japan Society in fact was forerunner to the Trilaterals, founded 66 years later, but represented an expansion into Britain and Europe, in response to Bilderberg not including Japanese industrialists and bankers. Meaning that Bilderberg is over-rated compared to the Trilaterals! However, they both sprang from this older organization which remains in the shadows.

This post was published at Silver-Investor on August 29, 2014.

Holmes – Anticipate Before You Participate: Patterns in Trading

Frank Holmes, CEO of U. S. Global Investors in San Antonio writes: The primary unit of time measurement for high-frequency traders might be the microsecond, but for normal retail traders, it’s vital to know the best months, days and even half-hours of the day to make market transactions.
Consider Black Friday, the most active shopping day of the year. Let’s say a 60′ 1080p plasma HDTV normally goes for around $900 but, on Black Friday, is discounted to $500. That’s a 44 percent savings. If you had a desire to own this TV and were somehow guaranteed a way to bypass the rabid mobs, you’d be careless to spend $900 on it the day before.
Likewise, you’d be at a disadvantage to buy or sell a security without first conducting some level of research to determine the optimal time, statistically speaking, to make a transaction. At the very least, you should know when not to make a transaction.
Fortunately, much of this research has already been conducted. My friend Jeffrey Hirsch, following in the footsteps of his late father Yale Hirsch, has for years edited the invaluable Stock Trader’s Almanac, which is updated annually. The book is notable for finding reliable patterns in market trends and behavior, on both the macro and micro scale. It also gave birth to such well-known investing adages as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ and the ‘January Barometer.’
Thirty-five years ago when I was just getting started in the investment business, I asked Yale how he managed to arrive at his findings. He told me that his background in music composition enabled him to ‘hear’ melodies, if you will, in four-year presidential cycles, seasonal cycles, weekly cycles and more. This interdisciplinary approach of combining music and finance should inspire all investors to leverage their own unique skills, talents and backgrounds to seek patterns in the market that others might overlook.
If you don’t already own a copy of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, I urge you to make a special trip to the bookstore. You can also visit the book’s website and sign up for a free seven-day trial. The site provides a wealth of helpful and fascinating information for investors to peruse.

This post was published at GotGoldReport on Saturday, August 30, 2014.

Financial Astrology – Crude Update

The Markets
The bullish trend we were expecting in the middle of August gained additional strength in last weeks trading session. The technical long term trend is for the Nasdaq has realigned to the upside and joins the DJIA. The Nasdaq has done a ‘whipsaw’, as Jeff likes to call it, giving a signal that is bullish for all the indexes. Jeff often sees this type of market being followed up by a very big bullish breakout. We could see this type of move next week or in the second week of September. We will continue to hold our long positions, trim profits, and add to our longs as new setups materialize. I will continue to advise caution in the first week of September, however, by mid September we will likely see another very strong move up on the indexes.
Oil ($WTIC)
Saturn and Mars will make a conjunction in the sky this week, will likely see a rebound with oil prices moving higher. A bullish move is likely into mid October.

This post was published at ZenTrader on August 30, 2014.

31/8/2014: Irish Dependency Ratio Rises in H1 2014

Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of
Breakdown of population over 15 years of age by their principal economic status: employed, unemployed, in retirement, students, engaged at home, and ‘others’:Unemployment and Participation Rates:Duration of Unemployment, including distribution by Age Cohorts:

This post was published at True Economics on Sunday, August 31, 2014.

Prepare For Longterm Instability and Hardship

Unlike the normal business cycle that allows for a recession every few years to clear out the mal-investments and keep the system functioning properly, the current cycle has been artificially induced with money that has unseated the foundation of good financial practices and caused a series of bubbles that must pop at some point. When this happens the business cycle will be heavily damaged and will take many years to reestablish some type of normalcy.
If you think of a cycle as a pendulum swinging back and forth, you must realize that the further it swings to one side, the further it will swing to the other to balance itself. That is what we must realize with the current bubble boom in the financial sectors. The further out of balance they get, the further they will need to swing back to preserve equilibrium. When these bubbles finally pop, the offsetting swing will be monumental. A normal recession of a few years will be exaggerated to a multi-year disaster.
These are the type of conditions that usher in depressions of long duration. This bubble induced mania is far beyond anything experienced in human history and will result in an equally disastrous financial contraction destroying paper assets and making hard assets desirable and difficult to acquire in the aftermath.
In this type of situation, hard assets and a wide knowledge base are as good as it gets. The ownership of capital equipment that produces necessary consumer goods and the ability to finance yourself internally combined with sufficient knowledge to use these resources will provide a safe harbor to get through the difficulties that arise. Becoming your own bank requires the ability to store financial assets such as precious metals and diamonds that have universal value. This is one of the few ways to store wealth that can survive such market destruction.

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 30, 2014.

PENANCE. THE WEEKEND VIGILANTE AUGUST 30, 2014

It’s my fault.
Those who have been reading some of my internet scribblings over the past months or years know I’ve been going down a very interesting path. Having graduated with a Masters degree from the school of hard knocks in Austrian Economics and political “science” over the last decade I’ve begun to dig even deeper into an understanding of the very question of life. Heck, we’ll see if I am still alive by the end of this blog entry. Yes, I am serious about that (I think I will be… but I’ll explain below why I haven’t killed myself yet).
I also want to state that I am not drunk and am just a few sips in to a glass of red wine right now and won’t be drunk by the end of this article. This is all coming straight from my heart after a year of looking in the mirror daily and asking myself who is this person and does he deserve to be here and after spending most of the day today meditating in my underwear and a lot of eye water .
This may get wacky or weird by the time I’m done writing. But before I drizzle digital ink upon you I do want to clarify a few things about the Galt’s Gulch Chile (GGC) clusterfuck.
It appears that many people have taken Wendy McElroy’s and my writings as being that GGC was and is an outright scam, all the money has been stolen and fuck you very much. That is not the case at all if everything I currently know about it is true. I have a fairly high degree of certainty that GGC owns the property where it has been selling lots and that that property has water rights. This is information I have been told by GGC’s past lawyer about a year ago… which was also the last time I had any access to information to anything related to GGC. It has more or less been verified by others investors over the course of the last year as well.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on August 30, 2014.

Odyssey Marine Releases Preliminary List of Numismatic Items Recovered from S.S. Central America

Central America was a 280-foot steamship that carried passengers and bullion from Panama to ports on the Eastern seaboard of the United States.
The ship sank after it was caught in a September 1857 hurricane. More than 420 of the 550 people on board died. The sinking was the worst shipwreck in American history–a short-lived distinction as the sinking of the S.S. Sultana in 1865 took the lives of more than 1,500 people.
As CoinWeek reported earlier, the April 15, 2014 reconnaissance dive turned up five gold ingots and two $20 double eagle gold coins. Recovery efforts were threatened after a legal claim filed on behalf of the Columbus-America Discovery Group. Odyssey Marine continued their recovery efforts throughout the proceedings and a U.S District Court in Virginia dismissed the case.
In the report, recovery work that took place between April 15 and May 8, 2014 yielded more than 800 gold coins and a cache of nearly 10,000 silver coins, including 8,931 dimes. However, the company’s most recent communication to CoinWeek reveals that the firm’s efforts have turned up and extensive accumulation of gold and silver objects.

This post was published at CoinWeek

Sprott’s Thoughts: Rick Rule—A Briefing on Private Placements

Some investors are able to participate in private placements, where a company raises money by offering new shares. For U.S. investors to participate in a private placement, they must be suitably qualified for the offering. Suitability depends on the exemptions under the Securities Act of 1933 through which the company is able to offer new shares. This loosely means that the investor must meet a certain threshold of net worth, income, or investable assets in order to participate.
Private placements may be done by private or publicly trading companies. When a public company issues shares in a private placement, the new shares are not freely tradable, but must be held for a specified period of time, and must have their trading restriction lifted by the issuer’s legal counsel before they can be sold.
Rick Rule believes that if you’re able to take part in these transactions, they could be attractive ways to take advantage of a recovery in natural resources

This post was published at Sprott Global

Brazil’s economy falls into recession, latest figures show

Brazil has fallen into recession, just a month before the general election, latest figures show.
Economic output, GDP, fell by 0.6% in the three months to June, worse than analysts had predicted, and revised figures for the first quarter of the year also showed a fall of 0.2%.
A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The news will be damaging for the government of President Dilma Rousseff.

This post was published at BBC

Doug Noland: Pondering the Summers of 2012 and 2014

The gulf between inflating global securities prices and deteriorating fundamental prospects widens by the week.
I’d been awaiting a German response to all the Draghi Q.E. jubilation. It is notable that it came from Finance Minister Schaeuble and not Bundesbank President Weidmann. Expectations for aggressive ECB monetary inflation do come at the same time as the anti-German “austerity” movement becomes increasingly clamorous. At the end of the day, I still don’t see how the French, Italians and Germans (among others) share a common currency. The cultures – the views on so many things, including how wealth is created (and shared), how economies should function, and how monetary and fiscal affairs must be managed – are inconsistent and often conflicting. At some point, somebody – the “periphery” countries, the French and Italians, or perhaps the German people – will say “enough is enough – this is not sustainable.”
In this age of monetary inflationism, the Germans provide a veritable oasis of sanity. At its best, “monetary policy can only buy time.” At its worst – the current reality – over time it buys problematic out-of-control Bubbles. Why would European banks partake in higher risk lending for business investment when they can make seemingly risk-free profits buying sovereign bonds? For that matter, why would American CEOs invest in plant and equipment at home when so much “wealth” is created buying back their stock? Meanwhile, two years of massive global monetary stimulus has prolonged historic investment booms in China and throughout much of Asia. This has exacerbated Bubbles, while only worsening the global pricing backdrop and capital investment environments elsewhere. Global imbalances have worsened.
Monetary policy promised way too much back in 2012. As I’ve written repeatedly, at this stage of a most spectacular and protracted Credit cycle, monetary inflation can only make things worse. Where does it end? And not for a minute do I believe the alarming rise in geopolitical risk and instability is unrelated to years of prolonged global monetary disorder. Mismanagement of the world’s reserve currency is replete with huge consequences. Mismanagement of all the world’s major currencies is a complete fiasco.

This post was published at Prudent Bear

Labor Day 2014: Economic solutions already here for full employment, zero public deficits and debts

Labor Day is an Orwellian holiday: US ‘leaders’ psychopathically pretend to care about American labor while lying about a real unemployment rate of close to 25% (the so-called ‘official’ rate excludes under-employed and discouraged workers).
Along with unemployment, Americans receive policy enabling oligarchs to ‘legally’ hide $20 to $30 trillion in offshore tax havens in a rigged-casino economy designed for ‘peak inequality.’ For comparison, $1 to $3 trillion ends global poverty forever, saving a million children’s lives every month from slow and gruesome death (here, here). And, as always, US ‘leaders’ lie-begat Americans intounlawful Wars of Aggression (in comparison, 11 days of US war cost would pay for all tuition of US college students).
Americans could have full-employment and zero public deficits and debt with monetary and credit reform.
These solutions are obvious upon a few moments of your attention. See for yourself:
What is monetary and credit reform?
Since the 1913 legislation of the Federal Reserve, the US has had a national ‘debt system;’ the Orwellian opposite of a monetary system. What we use for money is created as a debt, with the consequence of unpayable and increasing aggregate debt. This is a description of the simple mechanics of adding negative numbers. Although it’s taught in every macroeconomics course in structure, the consequences of increasing and unpayable debt are omitted (unpayable because it destroys what is used for money, and eventually the debt becomes tragic-comic in amount).

This post was published at Washingtons Blog on August 30, 2014.

30/8/2014: Both Unemployment and Participation Rates Fell in Q2 2014

In the previous post, I covered duration of unemployment across age cohorts data for Q2 2014. This time around, let’s take a look at labour force participation rates and unemployment rates. As noted earlier, there are some good news in the latest QNHS data. And this theme continues with unemployment rate statistics. Official unemployment rate has declined from 12% in Q1 2014 to 11.5% in Q2 2014 (seasonally-adjusted basis). Thus, Q/Q unemployment rate dropped by a substantial 0.5 percentage points, which is faster than the 0.2%points decline in Q1 2014 compared to Q4 2013. It is worth noting that in Q2 2013, Q/Q decline in seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was shallower 0.1 percentage points. Overall, over H1 2014, unemployment rate declined by 0.7 percentage points compared to the end of 2013. Over the same period of 2013, decline was 0.6 percentage points. Without seasonal adjustment, things are slightly different. Y/Y Q2 2014 unemployment rate is down 2.1 percentage points and in Q1 2014 the same decline was 1.7 percentage points. These rates are faster than the rates of y/y declines in unemployment for the same period of 2013. All of which is good news as illustrated by the chart below:

This post was published at True Economics on Saturday, August 30, 2014.