I described certain significant political cyclic effects in precious metals prices in previous blog essays.
(If you missed them: Gold & 2nd Term US Presidents ; War Cycles and The Price of Gold ; An In-Depth look at a Major Cycle in Spot Silver ; Silver Market Cycles )
In particular for those contributions I focused on the 2 year cycle which corresponds to congressional electoral process. I also looked at and emphasized the 4 year cycle which corresponds to US Presidential elections. A third period that I looked at carefully is the seven to eight year cycle which corresponds to the cycle of duration of reelected US presidents. This cycle, in it’s eight year version may correspond to a model used by Martin Armstrong which he classifies at 8.6 years and considers to govern or to track general economic confidence.
Among large cycles which I have not covered in this series of articles is a seasonal effect in pretty much all financial markets, and that could be described alternatively as a 1 year cycle, if one wished to do so, and that would be an accurate characterization of the seasonal effect.
Another cycle which I like to keep track of is a central bankers’ cycle which tends to come in at approximately five years length. Precious metals traders will be able to come up with some of the banking organizations five year deals, agreements, or plans. It is also common for sovereign states to operate economic plans and targets with this timespan, and large corporations are candidates too.
I thought I might show a picture of this 5 year cycle today, and also put several cycles together to see how they all interact with each other during Q4 2014.
So let’s take the five year swing to see what it does:
Now in order to be straight up about this, the existence of a five year cycle is a debatable point, and statistically it has a weak score. So this is an alleged cycle, or a possible cycle in the price of silver. You take a look, do your own examination of the facts, make up your own mind. I merely provide an illustrated interesting direction in which you might focus your gaze for a while to see whatever you can see.
Of course there a a lot of possible cycles in silver, so a question that regularly comes up is what are the others saying?
This post was published at TF Metals Report on September 21, 2014.