Huge Gains Waiting in a Forgotten Corner of the Market

While every other investor on the planet is distracted by the S&P 500′s new highs, you have the opportunity to book serious gains in one forgotten corner of the market.
Metals are setting up to deliver traders and investors impressive returns. And I’m not talking about gold and silver. Instead, you need to check out the base metals. Sure, copper and aluminum are not as glamorous as gold and silver. But I doubt you’ll complain much when you see these powerful setups…
First, let’s take a look at these base metals through the PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Metals Fund (NYSE:DBB). DBB has enjoyed a massive rally since early June. Capitulation selling back in March did the trick. Now, I really like how this name has consolidated in the $17-$18 range. It looks like it’s ready to break higher any day now…

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 28, 2014.

How to Invest in Silver Today for Double-Digit Gains

If you’ve been watching silver for some time, you know it’s been in the doghouse.
After peaking at $49 back in April 2011 the white metal is down 60%, having languished between $19 and $22 for the past two years.
But a confluence of factors is building that make today’s silver prices look downright cheap.
Here’s how the bull is going to run – and how you can ride it all the way up from here…
The Pattern: Where Gold Goes, Silver Follows
To explain how the precious white metal behaves, I like to use the phrase: silver is like gold – on steroids.

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 29, 2014.

No Inflation Friday: 422% increase in price to leave the Land of the Free

Pop quiz: What do actor Jet Li, opera singer Maria Callas, writer T. S. Eliot, financier John Templeton, actress Elizabeth Taylor, and Queen Noor of Jordan all have in common?
They are all former US citizens who went through the formal process of relinquishing or renouncing their citizenships. (Liz Taylor actually restored her US citizenship in the late 1970s)
Until a couple of years ago, there wasn’t much of a fuss about this. It was a rare occurrence for someone to renounce his/her citizenship.
Fast forward a few decades. The US government is now flat broke (actually in the red to the tune of $17 trillion) and resorting to chasing people to the ends of the earth to get their fair share of your lifetime earnings.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on August 29, 2014.

Home-Flipping Collapses in San Francisco, Losses Spread

Home flippers are hardy folks who dive head-first into housing markets to buy homes at a discount from estimated market value, rehab them if they have to, trim the trees and cut the weeds out front, and flip the unit in less than a year, hopefully at a premium over estimated market value. If all works out, they’re rewarded with fat returns on investment.
It involves leverage, so some of the risks get shuffled off to the lender. It involves skills, connections, knowledge, and a good dose of luck. Above all, it requires the ability to buy low and sell high. To take home some serious dough, flippers need to purchase at double-digit discounts below ‘estimated market value’ (based on AVM) and add enough value to sell at a premium over estimated market value. In the intervening months, home prices must also jump. So double-digit home price increases over the last two years have made flipping a lot more profitable. And easier.
This is the magic mix. If the conditions are met, the equation works out. It not, it’s a leveraged bet that can go to heck in a hand basket.
But flipping has started to run out of air in much of the country. And in the multi-county metro area of San Francisco, flipping collapsed in the second quarter, and flippers for the first time in years, started wading into red ink.

This post was published at Wolf Street on August 30, 2014.

30 BLOCKS OF MURALS & CIGARETTE TAXES FOR THE CHILDREN

It’s that time of year again – when the little juvenile delinquents, future prison inmates, and functionally illiterate junior members of the free shit army pick up their ‘free’ backpacks and ‘free’ school supplies they will never use and shuffle off to the decaying prison like schools in the City of Philadelphia to eat ‘free’ breakfasts and ‘free’ lunches, while being taught government sanctioned pablum by overpaid mediocre union teachers.
It’s a repeat of every year for the Phila school district. As the school year approaches they are shocked to report a massive deficit and beg the State of PA for more funding. The $12,000 per child simply isn’t enough, even though Parochial schools provide ten times the education for $9,000 per child. The district has a slight $80 million deficit this year. Last year they had a $100 million deficit and the mayor proposed a soda tax to fill the gap. It was defeated, so they raised property taxes instead. Mayor Nutter’s name is fitting. He is just another in a long line of Democratic mayors who have ruled Philadelphia since the 1950′s and whose policies of welfare handouts for their voting base paid for by taxing the producers, has resulted in a population decline from 2.1 million in 1950 to 1.5 million today. Doug Casey captures the essence of Philly with this definition:
Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy)
: a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers. The liberal solution to an ever decreasing tax base and an ever growing level of benefits for the free shit army and government union drones, is to increase taxes on the few remaining producers. They then flee the city, leaving fewer producers to tax. Rinse and repeat. Your neighborhoods then look like this.

This post was published at The Burning Platform on 28th August 2014.

Stock Market Tops & Gold Manipulation Suits

Mainstream press pundits are themselves surprised at the bull market the world has seen in stocks, and many are beginning to note that, soon enough, investors themselves will grow wary about investing in the stock market.
The price of gold bullion since March has come down approximately $100 per ounce, and since 2011 the price has fallen from nearly $2,000 an ounce to its current price of approximately $1,300. The story is similar for silver, which fell from its high of $49 in April 2011 to today’s price of $19.50. Many analysts on mainstream press have indicated that the gold bull market is through, but the evidence points towards the contrary.
Behind the headlines of a record breaking stock market, news about suspected gold price manipulation has caught the attention of many. As the New York Times writes of an ongoing hearing regarding the claims:
At a 40-minute hearing, lawyers for more than 20 plaintiffs gathered in Federal District Court in Manhattan to coordinate their linked lawsuits against the five banks that make up what is known as the London gold fix. The suits, filed by hedge funds, private citizens and public investors like the Alaska Electrical Pension Fund, contend that the banks have used their privileged positions as market makers to rig the price of gold to their benefit.

This post was published at GoldSilverBitcoin on August 28, 2014.

The Paper Armageddon Portfolio, One Year Later

As some of you may recall, I published an article here at TFMR one year ago in August of 2013 titled The Paper Armageddon Portfolio. In this piece I outlined a rationale for investing in certain sectors from a ‘hard assets/tangible value’ perspective that would reflect the TFMR understanding of the ongoing Keynesian process of QE, artificially low interest rates, market manipulation, and dollar devaluation. Within those sectors, I selected multiple stocks from companies I felt would outperform the sector as a whole. The general idea was to come up with a list of companies who were poised to not only survive the current debt creation/paper ponzi economy, but would potentially offer solid returns in the coming paradigm where tangible and productive assets will be worth far more than today’s paper promises. So one year later I thought it would be worthwhile to check back in on this investing thesis to see how these picks and sectors fared and to discuss what we might learn from their performance over the last year.
The article I originally posted is here, but to summarize, I outlined four sectors oriented around hard assets and/or the real-world production of tangible goods. The four I chose were 1. Farmland, 2. Timber and grazing, 3. Energy and commodities, and 4. Railroads (which I surmised would be poised to grow in a high fuel costs/post-Petrodollar environment, and to take market share from the currently dominant but fuel inefficient trucking industry).
Let’s assume that, as I recommended in the article, Turdites looked at this list and spent a few weeks doing their own research and due diligence on these companies, then chose to invest a few weeks later. Here is a breakdown of the 1 year performance of these individual stocks I chose within these sectors in my original list. Each entry shows ticker symbol, price change over the last year, % gain, dividend yield, then what a $10,000 investment in that stock would be worth today, and finally how much dividend one would have been paid:

This post was published at TF Metals Report on August 29, 2014.

august 29

Gold closed down $2.90 at $1285.80 (comex to comex closing time ). Silver was up 13 cents at $19.40
In the access market tonight at 5:15 pm
gold: $1287.00
silver: $19.46
Today is first day notice and also the last day for options on the OTC. GLD : a slight loss of .6 tonnes of gold (probably to pay for fees etc)
SLV : no change in silver inventory at the SLV/now 331.528 million oz
Today we have commentaries concerning the Ukraine, Russia, Japan, Germany and the EU, Italy and the terror of ISIS.
On the physical side of things, we have a great commentary from Koos Jansen on silver as this metal has volume in China exceeding that of the comex. Also the Shanghai Silver Exchange has only 3.3 million oz of inventory left having depleted over 29 million oz over one year. Once depleted where do you think China will go to, in order to feed its burgeoning demand? We will discuss these and other stories
So without further ado………………
Let’s head immediately to see the data has in store for us today.
First: GOFO rates/
All months basically remained the same. Again, they must have found some gold to lease..
London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.
August 29 2014
1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate
.088000% .1020000% .1200% .1500% .228000%
August 28.2014:
1 Month Rate 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month Rate 1 yr rate
08800% .104000% .12000% .1500% .224000%
end
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

This post was published at Harvey Organ on August 29, 2014.

Largarde under Criminal Investigation for Corruption in France

Christine Lagarde has long been suspected of corruption yet of course the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) board proclaimed they firmly stand behind her because she has raised the stature of the IMF to a world player once again thanks to Obama and their joint agenda to raise our taxes to 80% and confiscate 10% of everyone’s bank account to pay for the bankers. Christine Lagarde is facing a criminal investigation in France that is tied to a political corruption probe dating from 2008.
The allegations by French magistrates earlier in the week placed Lagarde squarely under formal investigation for ‘negligence’ after questioning her in Paris for a fourth time.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on August 29, 2014.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Cap ‘n Coil

Nothing really happened of note in the Comex warehouses for gold. Silver is seeing the usual movements, in and out, with CNT providing quite a bit of the action. We are now trading the metals for September, which is an active month for silver and not gold. US markets will be closed on Monday for Labor Day. There was commentary overnight about the Coppock indicator which is signaling an intermediate bottom in the price of gold and most likely for silver as well. You can read it here. In my opinion any chart or technical signals are subject to some form of confirmation. The metals need to break out of their doldrums.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 29 AUGUST 2014.

Chinese Gold Demand 1163 MT YTD. Silver Surprise

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which equal Chinese wholesale demand, accounted for 35 metric tonnes in week 33 (August 4 – 8). Up 7.25 % w/w, additionally the largest amount withdrawn in 8 weeks. Year to date 1163 tonnes have been withdrawn, for which I estimate 723 tonnes had to be net imported into the mainland.

Premiums have kept up just above zero…

This post was published at Bullion Star on 25-August-2014.

Your Wall Street Slumlord Arrives in Europe – Goldman and Other Financial Firms Launch ‘Buy to Rent’ in Spain

Liberty Blitzkrieg was early in reporting on the trend of financial firms entering the U. S. residential real estate market with ‘all-cash’ bids for tens of thousands of homes with the intention of turning former homeowners into permanent sources of rental income. The first of many pieces I published on the topic was in January 2013, titled: America Meet Your New Slumlord: Wall Street.
Now that the financial oligarchs have had their way with the U. S. property market, to the point that average citizens can’t even afford to own a home (Zillow recently showed that 1 in 3 homes are unaffordable), it appears they have turned their sights overseas. What better market for bailed-out bankers to feast on than Spain, with its 50% youth unemployment rate and a continued depressed real estate market.
We learn from Bloomberg that:

This post was published at Liberty Blitzkrieg on Aug 29, 2014.

“Sand Is The New Gold”?

Thanks to the growing use of fracking, or extracting oil and natural gas from shale formations, shares of U. S. companies which supply sand to energy producers are surging, and as Bloomberg reports, it does not look set to stop anytime soon. ‘Sand is the new gold,’ says Ivaylo Ivanov, founder of Ivanhoff Capital, as Ole Slorer, a New York-based analyst at Morgan Stanley, expects demand for fracking sand in 2016 will be 96 percent higher than last year’s level.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

The “Real” Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains At A Recessionary Level

Earlier this month, Retail Sales missed expectations for the 3rd month in a row, essentially flat on the month. As Doug Short rhetorically asks ‘how much insight into the US economy does the nominal retail sales report offer?’ With the release of the CPI data, we can judge this in ‘real’ terms (adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population)… and thepicture is anything but healthy.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

Who Is Short Treasurys? (Spoiler: Pretty Much Everyone)

Once upon a time, news and fundamentals mattered.
Then the Fed came and ever since then the main question has been where the highest concentration of shorts is, just to squeeze the margin call daylights out of them, and generate alpha (a strategy we highlighted back in 2012).
And while shorting crappy, illiquid stocks has not worked for a long, long time because under ZIRP capital is misallocated with reckless abandon usually ending up promptly in the most worthless companies, it was not until the past year when the shorting brigade decided to assault the most liquid, allegedly, instrument: the US Treasury bond itself.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Hubris R’ Us

The SP 500 futures managed to close at exactly 2000.00. Cute. There was a remarkable amount of complacency in the US trade today as the summer help took the markets into a three day weekend with plenty simmering on the geopolitical stove. As you know, today was the end of the month. Next week the pros come back from vacation and we may see a different tone to the daily trade

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 29 AUGUST 2014.

Stock Markets in their Third Bubble Since 2000

The S&P 500 just passed the 2,000-point psychological threshold, an absolute record for that index, created in 1950 and comprising the 500 largest companies traded on the U. S. stock market, thus being more representative than the famous Dow Jones Industrial Index, with its 30 companies. This new record would seem to show that the U. S. recovery is under way… but let’s step back a little in order to evaluate these numbers.
As can be seen on this 1950-end of 2013 graph (reaching 1,600 points), the S&P 500 has been quite erratic since the 2000s, with two bubbles that burst! But let’s get back to the ’80s… Back then was the triumph of Ronald Reagan’s ‘conservative revolution’, which led to a vast liberalisation of the economy with whole sectors being allowed to compete (air transportation and telecoms, notably), while at the same time income tax was reduced, thus encouraging wealth creation. Sound growth takes place and the United States comes out of the ’70s crisis on the way to two wealth producing decades.
In all logic, the S&P 500 starts to rise in 1982, with the 1987 October crash being just a glitch quickly forgotten. But, starting in 1995, the trend picks up, with the start of the ‘internet bubble’. Much hope is placed in the nascent network and heads are spinning a little too much. The bubble burst, beginning of 2000, and the S&P 500 went from a peak of 1,527 to a trough of 800 in 2002, almost down by half.

This post was published at Gold Broker on Aug 28, 2014.

5 Things To Ponder: Labor Day Edition

The financial markets are set to wrap up the month with roughly a 3.5% gain, depending on where today’s action ends, which is historically on the positive end of returns for the month. The histogram below shows the annual percentage change for the month of August. Since 1930, there have been a total of 47 positive months versus 38 negative (55% win ratio) with an average return of 1.47%. However, if we strip out the 37.7% gain in 1932, the one outlier, the average monthly return falls to just 1.04%.

This post was published at StreetTalkLive on 29 August 2014.