The View From 2017’s Bridge: What Clive Hale Learned This Year

Authored by Clive Hale via The View From The Bridge blog,
As long time readers will know we do not put much credence in end of year forecasts; nor in fact forecasts in general; the Fed and the Met Office being stand out examples.
As an alternative to what is going to happen in 2018 (“Markets will fluctuate”…attrubuted to J. P. Morgan) we have put together some memorable quotes we have picked up dutring the course of 2017.
Firstly the reality about forecasting –
“Forecasts are financial candy. Forecasts give people who hate the feeling of uncertainty something emotionally soothing.” Thomac Vician Jnr student of Ed Seykota.
And equally damning is this – The Illusion of Certainty
“Many of us smile at old fashioned fortune tellers. But when the soothsayers work with computer algorithms rather than tarot cards, we take their predictions seriously and are prepared to pay for them.” – Gerd Gigerenzer
“Our industry is full of people who got famous for being right once in a row.” Howard Marks
And then we have forecasts with added hubris for good measure…
“Inflation is not where we want it to be or where it should be” Mario Draghi

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 18, 2017.