Forget Bitcoin (for a second) and look at the real markets.
Per Goldman Sachs research, current markets valuation for bonds and stocks are out of touch with historical bubbles reality: As it says on the tin,
‘A portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index stocks and 40 percent 10-year U. S. Treasuries generated a 7.1 percent inflation-adjusted return since 1985, Goldman calculated — compared with 4.8 percent over the last century. The tech-bubble implosion and global financial crisis were the two taints to the record.’
Check point 1.
Now, Check point 2: The markets are already in a complacency stage: ‘The exceptionally low volatility found in the stock market — with the VIX index near the record low it reached in September — could continue. History has featured periods when low volatility lasted more than three years. The current one began in mid-2016.’
This post was published at True Economics on Nov 29, 2017.