The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis

That China is a widely accepted global outlier in the context of credit, debt and leverage, look no further than the latest Financial Stability Report from the IMF, which in no uncertain terms lays out where China can be “found” relative to its G-20 peers in the following chart:

Yet according to the IMF, China’s bleak picture is based on a relatively rosy estimate of the country’s non-financial debt to GDP at approximately “only” 242%.
The reality, however, is that China’s true leverage picture is far worse, and while there are far more aggressive and pessimistic estimates in the public domain, we have chosen the latest number calculated by Victor Shih from the Mercator Institute for China Studies, who in a just released report calculates that total non-financial credit in China stood around 254 trillion RMB as of May 2017, equivalent to 328% of 2016 nominal GDP, or nearly 100% higher than the official IMF estimate. This is also 34% increase as a share of GDP compared with the end of 2015.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 23, 2017.

 

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