Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners
Forget the Known Unknows, its the shocking surprises that are going to get us
‘Bubbles don’t grow out of thin air, they have a solid basis in reality. But, reality is distorted by misconception..’ And it’s a bad start to the week as my Bloomberg obliquely gave the finger by refusing to log me on.
Markets don’t care about my travails. They continue on their unstoppable upward trajectory. (Remember that word – trajectory, often parabolic. Look it up.) Lots of folks warning about complacency, but markets pay no heed. They prefer the global unlimited growth vibe..
Now, I know I sound like a broken record with my boring repeated warnings the market has gone overly frothy. I could counter with arguments about low volatility and short-tops painting a weakening technical picture. I could make arguments about how the short-term and long term business cycles all converge on weak indicators – I could even give you a lengthy discussion on how the Kondratieff ultra-long cycle says ‘run-away!’ I could refer to volume of money issues, or QE concerns. I could even point you to some astrological stuff…
Or I could point out what a worrying place the markets are. After reading through all the news this morning it strikes me we’re in thrall to a host of known unknowns.
If you want to worry, then pick your choice: it’s a delightful smorgasbord of things to go bump from the anniversary of the Hurricane and Crash of 87, the right-wing in Austria, noise about Tax reform in the US, Norte Korea, Kurds vs Iraq/Turkey, Catalunya vs Spain, UK vs Everyone, Trump vs the Universe, and everything in between. (In my own case, tomorrow is exactly a year since the unpleasantness with my primary pump – just doesn’t feel like it’s going to be a lucky week!).
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 16, 2017.
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