Gartman: “We Know For Certain That We Wish Not To Be Short Of Equities”

Exactly two weeks after Dennis Gartman staked his reputation that “the bull market has come to an end”, the “commodities guru” appears to be getting second thoughts, and as we writes in his overnight note, he no longer “wishes to be short of equities.” While it is unclear what that means for Gartman’s “reputation”, or if one even exists, here is how he frames his quandary:
STOCKS IN AROUND THE WORLD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE as seven of the ten markets comprising our International Index have risen in the course of the past twenty four hours; as two have fallen and as one finished its trading day unchanged. Thus, in the end, ahead of today’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming affair, stocks in global terms are up 0.25% for the day and are up 9.9% for the year-to-date.
Importantly, the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which had fallen below the important 20 level late last week and earlier this week to the level marked as that of ‘Extreme Fear,’ has turned higher and finished last evening at 22.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Gold Juniors’ Q2’17 Fundamentals

The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them. The juniors recently reported Q2 earnings, and enjoyed strong results.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends. Canadian companies have similar requirements. In other countries with half-year reporting, some companies still partially report quarterly.
The definitive list of elite junior gold stocks to analyze used to come from the world’s most-popular junior-gold-stock investment vehicle. This week the GDXJ VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF reported $4.0b in net assets. Among all gold-stock ETFs, that was only second to GDX’s $7.5b. That is GDXJ’s big-brother ETF that includes larger major gold miners. GDXJ’s popularity testifies to the great allure of juniors.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on August 25, 2017.

Gold Market Morning: August-25-2017: Gold and silver prices waiting for Jackson Hole today!

Gold Today – New York closed yesterday at $1,286.20. Londonopened at $1,285.95 today.
Overall the dollar was slightly weaker against global currencies before London’s opening:
– The $: was slightly weaker at $1.1799 after yesterday’s$1.1794: 1.
– The Dollar index was slightly weaker at 93.28 after yesterday’s93.31.
– The Yen was slightly weaker at 109.63 after yesterday’s 109.29:$1.
– The Yuan was slightly stronger at 6.6609 after yesterday’s6.6621: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was slightly stronger at $1.2822 afteryesterday’s $1.2807: 1
Yuan Gold Fix
New York closed at $3.20 lower than Shanghai’s yesterday’s close. Today sees Shanghai holding just $0.30 higher than yesterday, which was $3.75 higher than London’s opening. The global gold markets remain close to each other with Shanghai barely moving.
Silver Today – Silver closed at $16.95 yesterday after $16.95 at New York’s close, Wednesday.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 August 2017.

Frontrunning: August 25

Trump to push for tax reform passage by year’s end, says Cohn (FT) Bond Routs, Stock Surges: Jackson Hole Can Be Messy for Markets (BBG) Hurricane Harvey intensifies (Reuters) GOP Plan to Kill Estate Tax Sets Up Conflict Over Charitable Giving (BBG) ECB Is Set to Buy More Bonds (WSJ) U. S. Plans to Unveil New Round of Sanctions on Venezuela, Sources Say (BBG) U. S. Navy recovers second body in search for sailors missing after collision (Reuters) Britain will not pay ‘a penny more’ than it thinks right to leave EU: Boris Johnson (Reuters) Amazon Clobbers Grocers With Price Cuts at Whole Foods (WSJ) Samsung Heir Gets 5 Years for Scandal That Toppled a President (BBG) Auto Dealers Dogged by ‘Boys Club’ Showrooms Costing Them Sales (BBG) U. S. state election officials still in the dark on Russian hacking (Reuters) Band of Brothers Plotted Barcelona Terror (WSJ) U. S. fighter pilots in Afghanistan prepare for more air strikes (Reuters) China’s Aviation Push Lifts Aircraft Manufacturers (WSJ) Thailand’s ousted PM Yingluck has fled abroad: sources (Reuters) Centuries-Old Stolen Copy of Christopher Columbus Letter Recovered in U. S. (WSJ) San Francisco latest city to brace for protests (Reuters) Why Florida Farmers Want to Kill Nafta (BBG)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Mock Themselves and Don’t Realize It

In the world of social media, it’s easy to step in it without really realizing it. For example, the Federal Reserve found itself viciously trolled after its social media person put up a Facebook post warning about scammers.
Well, this week, the US Treasury secretary and the Senate majority leader stepped in it, but I don’t think they realize it yet.
Bear with me a minute and you’ll see what I mean.
By now, you’ve probably heard about Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s visit to Ft. Knox to check out the nation’s gold stash.
On his way, Mnuchin cracked a joke about the possibility of the gold not being there. Ha! Ha! Right?
Of course, it would be funnier if there weren’t an awful lot of Americans who actually wonder if the gold is really there. You’d think a politician would be better at reading the room. Apparently not though. Cracking that particular joke, at that moment, was kind of like spinning a yarn about the drunk uncle who couldn’t make it to the family reunion. The joke is kind of funny. You want to laugh. But at the same time, its a little uncomfortable. In the back of your mind you’re wondering – was that true?

This post was published at Schiffgold on AUGUST 25, 2017.

“Today Is The Day” – One Trader Takes A ‘Dark Side’ Stab Ahead Of J-Hole

Today is the day. Both Draghi and Yellen speak later at Jackson Hole. Although expectations for market moving news have been damped down, the market might be getting a little too complacent.
Over the past month or so, bond markets have been drifting higher on the assumption the Fed would take a dovish wait-and-see approach to the introduction of quantitative tightening (widely expected to be started in September.) On the other side of the Atlantic, investors are increasingly pricing in a slower tapering to the ECB’s quantitative easing program, believing Draghi would rather overshoot than risk pulling a Trichet by tightening and then be forced to quickly resume easing.
Have a look at the movement over the past three months of the Fed Funds futures’ curve:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Calling Mitch McConnell’s Debt Ceiling Bluff

Sotto Voce Declarations
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell woke up on the wrong side of the bed on Monday. Who could blame him? His summer vacation’s been ruined. President Trump’s been riding him all month like a pack mule.
The spoiler of Mitch’s summer vacation. People should generally avoid finding themselves on the receiving end of the master Tweeter’s fire and fury mode if they suffer from conditions such as geographic distance insufficiency or complete lack of nuclear deterrent syndrome. [PT] What’s more, on Monday McConnell had to rise early and put on his suit and tie like an ordinary working stiff. While his Congressional cohorts were busy vacationing in their summer recess, McConnell had important business to tend to that couldn’t wait until the return of Congress on September 5. Namely, he had to make a public display of unity in his home state of Kentucky with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
Following a social media lambasting of a deplorable taxpayer by Mnuchin’s new bride, and Mnuchin’s visit to Fort Knox to confirm the ‘gold is safe,’ it was finally time to get down to business.

This post was published at Acting-Man on August 25, 2017.

Next Stop, Recession: The Financial Meteor Storm Is Headed Our Way

Many of those about to be vaporized did not grasp the fragility of the “prosperity” they assumed was both solid and permanent.<
Business-cycle recessions are not just inevitable, they are necessary to flush bad debt and marginal investments/projects from the system.
The next recession–which I suggested yesterday has just begun–will be more than a business-cycle downturn; it will be a devastating meteor storm that destroys huge chunks of the economy while leaving other sectors virtually untouched.
The dynamic that’s about to play out is simple: wages for the bottom 95% have gone nowhere for 17 years, while costs have soared far above official inflation for everyone exposed to real-world costs.
We have filled the widening gap between stagnant household income and rising expenses with debt. This stop-gap works for a while, but eventually the cost of servicing debt consumes the entire budget, leaving little to nothing to save or invest.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on THURSDAY, AUGUST 24, 2017.

Four Factors that Could Help Sustain a Gold Bull Run

Gold has entered a bull market.
This according to an article in CityA. M., a London business daily.
The authors cite four factors that could help support a sustained gold bull run.
Global Interest Rates Will Stay Low
Despite talk of monetary tightening in the US, interest rates worldwide remain low, and in many cases negative. Worldwide, economic growth remains relatively sluggish. Inflation is not hitting the central bankers’ target. In fact, Jim Rickards recently argued that the Fed won’t even continue with its interest rate normalization.
The Fed will not hike rates again this year. Once the market wakes up to the reality of a prolonged ‘pause’ by the Fed, they will conclude correctly that the Fed is once again attempting to ease by ‘forward guidance.’ This relative ease will keep the dollar on its downward trend and be a boost to the dollar price of gold. The Fed will not hike rates regardless of the strong jobs report. The reason is that strong job growth was ‘mission accomplished’ for the Fed over a year ago. Jobs are not the determining factor in Fed rate decisions today. The determining factor is disinflation.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on AUGUST 25, 2017.

Global Stocks Rise Ahead Of Much Anticipated Speeches By Yellen, Draghi

Global markets are stuck in a holding pattern with S&P futures up modestly after fluctuating overnight, as European and Asian shares rise with oil while the dollar has dipped lower ahead of the biggest central bank event of the year: the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium where Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will speak at 10am and 3pm ET, respectively. Meanwhile, world stocks drifted toward their best week in six on Friday, as a near three-year high in emerging markets shares and a roaring rally in industrial metals bolstered the year’s global bull run.
US futures got a marginal boost by comments from Gary Cohn before the FT shortly after 5am ET, pushing back against suggestions he will leave the White House and confirming another push for tax reform.
European Stocks were mixed for much of the morning session before edging higher, with gains for miners eclipsing retailer declines in the wake of Amazon’s announcement it would cut Whole Foods prices on Monday in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.
As discussed over the past week, the only show in town over the next couple of days is the Yellen and Draghi show at the Jackson Hole symposium (today’s agenda here). They talk at 10am and then 3pm (EST/NY time). As for Yellen it seems the swing factor is whether the Fed is placing greater weight on very loose financial conditions and financial stability concerns over any supposed short term soft inflation numbers. Deutsche Bank yesterday published a piece re-visiting Yellen’s July 2014 speech on ‘Monetary Policy and Financial Stability’ as a benchmark for assessing any changes in her views on the topic. The bank suggests that there is an interesting parallel between today and mid-2014 when Yellen delivered that speech. Then, as now, financial conditions were very loose. Yet despite easy financial conditions at the time, Yellen’s speech concluded that the nature and magnitude of financial stability considerations as of mid-2014 were insufficient to justify tighter monetary policy. The key question for markets is whether enough has changed since July 2014 for Yellen to reach a different conclusion and send a more hawkish signal about the future monetary policy path at Jackson Hole?
‘Will financial-stability concerns prompt the Fed to hike, even when inflation is so low? This is what the market wants to know,’ John Cairns, a strategist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, wrote in a client note. ‘With little else to focus on, the market has morphed the symposium into a colossus. Risks are two-way: Yellen could take the hike off the table, or reaffirm it.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: August-25-2017

Investors are cautious in gold and silver bullish bets. US budgetary woes, Jackson hole news and view has resulted in more and more fence sitters at the moment. Silver and copper comex September futures are expiring next week. Positions and rebuilding has started. Volatility will rise in silver and copper till next week. Copper has had a technical breakout and looks set for very big gains. Industrial metals are benefitting from automotive sector technology changes and lack of major slowdown news around the globe.
Next week there are market moving US economic data releases.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 25 August 2017.

Durable Goods Orders Plunge In July After Boeing Hangover

July Durable Goods Orders plunged 6.8% MoM (much worse than the -6.0% expectation), more than erasing June’s aircraft-order-based 6.4% jump. This is the biggest drop since Boeing’s reaction in Aug 2014.
Just as we saw in 2014, this is simply the hangover from Boeing’s June orders with non-defense aircraft new orders down 70.7% month-over-month.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Will Trump’s Debt Dance Cap Jackson Hole’s Dollar Love

With Janet Yellen due to speak in under 3 hours, here are some observations from how the day may proceed courtesy of David Finnerty, an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg.
***
Macro View: Trump Debt Dance to Cap Dollar Love at Jackson Hole
The dollar needs some love, but politics are going to keep it starved of affection, even as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance Friday at Jackson Hole and the looming September Fed meeting have made some of my colleagues anticipate that central banks will reassert their preeminence.
All investor eyes will initially be on Yellen’s speech for clues on monetary policy normalization, a key question for policy hawks and dollar bulls. However, the topic of her speech is financial stability, so there’s a good chance market participants will be disappointed, leaving the dollar to languish at present levels.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.

– Bundesbank has completed a transfer of gold worth 24B from France and U. S.
– Germany has completed domestic gold storage plan 3 years ahead of schedule
– In the 7.7 million plan, 54,000 gold bars were shipped and audited
– In 2012 German court called for inspection of Germany’s foreign gold holdings
– Decision to repatriate from Paris and New York was ‘to build trust and confidence domestically’
– 1,236t or 37% of German holdings remain in New York Fed facility
– Bundesbank wants to hold gold bullion
– U. S. government declines to audit gold reserves … doesn’t want world to realise gold’s importance in the global monetary system
Editor: Mark O’Byrne
Last Monday, U. S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin feigned to inspect the U. S. gold reserves in Fort Knox and joked flippantly that he assumed it was there.
A day later the Bundesbank, announced that they had repatriated much of their gold reserves from the U. S. and France. Coincidence or coordination?

In 2013 the Deutsche Bundesbank announced plans to store half of its gold reserves in Germany. At the time, only 31% was stored in the country. The Gold Storage Plan involved bringing gold home from both Paris and New York.

This post was published at Gold Core on August 25, 2017.

Markets Quieter, Awaiting Yellen, Draghi Speeches Today In Jackson Hole

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
(Kitco News) – Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight and U. S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are near steady in pre-U. S.-day-session trading. Gold bulls still have the near-term chart advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
Many markets have been quieter most of this week, ahead of the highly anticipated annual world central bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that began Thursday and ends Saturday. Featured speakers at the three-day event include Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to speak this morning at 10:00 a.m. EDT. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is slated to speak this afternoon at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
Traders and investors will closely examine these Jackson Hole speeches and other central bankers’ remarks for any clues on future monetary policy moves by the world’s major central banks. There are ideas the central bankers will mention generally very low inflation worldwide, which could be extrapolated to mean keeping very accommodative monetary policies in place longer.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 25, 2017.

“Sticking The Arson Charge On A Couple Of Patsies”

Authored by Bryce McBride,
Imagine a situation where the owner of a long-established building supply company sees his profits turning into losses with no way to turn things around.
The owner has two options.
The honest option is to acknowledge the situation and shut down and sell his inventory of goods, his buildings and his equipment. With some luck the sale will earn enough to fund a modest retirement. The dishonest option is to continue to operate on the good name of the business in order to acquire lumber and hardware from suppliers on credit, and then sell the goods privately and deposit the proceeds in an offshore bank account. Finally, when his suppliers lose patience and threaten legal action the owner will arrange for the business to suffer a fire.
The fire serves two purposes.
First, it directs attention away from the owner’s poor management as the cause of the firm’s difficulties. Clearly the fire destroyed the business, not the owner. Second, it obscures the owner’s fraudulent sale of inventory in the months leading up to the fire and so protects his ill-gotten wealth. The ashes in the lumber shed could just as easily be from the firm’s declared or actual inventory. With a full fire insurance payout based upon his declared inventory of lumber (and equipment and buildings) the owner will be able to settle with his suppliers and, with the remainder of the insurance settlement and the money squirreled away in his offshore account, enjoy a very comfortable retirement.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.

Australian Senator Wear Burqa to Demonstrate a Point

Australian Senator Pauline Hanson entered the Senate in a burqa. While others immediately condemn her for anti-Muslim stunts, what about women’s rights? Did that die with the Sixties? Hanson has said that ‘these people’ who wear burqas ‘should go to a country that suits their needs.’ Should the West change its culture to accommodate those who marry off 12 year old-girls? Where is the line? If discrimination is bad, then we should have no rules and let everyone do as they please, walk naked down the street or have sex on the public beach when crowded. Drive drunk while their at it.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 25, 2017.

Conspiracy Theorists Can Relax! Steve Mnuchin Peers Through Ft. Knox Window And Confirms Gold Is Still There!

Imagine it was 1937 and you stored your gold with someone… let’s call them Uncle Sam.
After about 20 years you told Sam that you’d like to see the gold and make sure it was still there. He said sure; you can come and take a quick look. And you did… and you were satisfied that it looked like the gold was still there.
Decades then went by… more than 40 years in fact… and you told Sam that you’d like to make sure the gold is still there.
He replied, ‘Sure, but you can’t count it or touch it or anything. You can just look through the window and see it is still there.’
‘Oh, and another thing,’ said Sam, ‘We get to select the person who can take a quick look.’
You’d start to get quite suspicious, wouldn’t you? It had been more than 40 years since you were even allowed to see the gold and more than 60 years since the last time Sam allowed you to count it.
‘Who do you select to take a look for us?’ you asked, eyebrows furrowed.
‘Steve Mnuchin,’ said Uncle Sam.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on August 24, 2017.

Samsung Billionaire Heir Sentenced To 5 Years In Jail For Bribery

The billionaire Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman and heir, Lee Jae-yong, was sentenced to five years in prison for paying bribes worth 8.9 billion won ($7.9 million) to a friend of then-president Park Geun-hye to win her support for the merger of two Samsung affiliates. The sentence marks a “watershed moment” for the country’s decades-long economic order dominated by powerful, family-run conglomerates.
Lee Jae-yong, Samsung Group heir arrives at Seoul Central District Court
to hear the bribery scandal verdict on August 25, 2017
The six-month trial over a scandal that brought down the then president, Park Geun-hye, concluded with a ruling that Lee had approved Samsung Electronics’ plan to send 7.3 billion won to Choi Soon-sil, Park’s longtime friend, through a German shell company, and to offer horses to her daughter, in anticipation of favors from Park. The court also found that Lee made an improper payment of 1.6 billion won to Choi through a sports center controlled by her. The merger of the two Samsung companies, which narrowly won shareholder approval with the backing of the National Pension Service, strengthened Lee’s control over the group. The court also found Lee guilty of hiding assets abroad, embezzlement and perjury.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 25, 2017.