Can The Permian Push Oil Prices Down To $40?

Two analyst firms have revised upwards their production growth forecasts for the Permian, expecting oil output there to be 300,000 bpd higher by the end of this year. The firms are none other than Wood Mackenzie, whose analysts expect 300,000 bpd more in Permian output by end-2017 – a 200,000-bpd increase to its year-end forecast – and Rystad, which sees the cumulative increase for June-December at 300,000 bpd.
That’s the kind of consensus market players like to see, especially when it comes a couple of days after reports that investors are pulling out from the Permian after Pioneer Resources reported the share of natural gas and gas liquids in its overall output has been rising at the expense of oil. Investors love their crude, after all, and are much less excited about gas.
Amid the worry, which some say is not as widespread as it may seem, the upbeat forecasts of these analysts were certainly welcome. Indeed, EIA data shows that the Permian continues to be the leader among the shale plays in terms of production growth. This month, output there is seen to rise by 64,000 bpd from July, to 2.535 million bpd. To compare, the second-fastest output growth is forecast for Eagle Ford, at a distant 27,000 bpd this month. In fact, the Permian should account for over half of the total U. S. shale oil output increase in August from July. The figure stands at 113,000 bpd. Related: Oil Rises, But Saudis Face Daunting Dilemma

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 15, 2017.