All you need to know about tomorrow’s general election in the UK, broken down into several parts.
From RanSquawk, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, and WSJ
Why has a Snap Election been called?
On April 18th PM Theresa May surprised many by calling for a snap election for June 8th . May stated that her reason in doing so was to ‘strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations’. While at the time that the snap election had being called, the Conservative party had a commanding 20ppt lead in the opinion polls, an opportunity that may not occur again. As such, a result of this size would make it harder for parliament to overthrow any deal May returns with from Brussels, potentially leading to a cleaner Brexit with the risk of a ‘no deal’ lower.
Polling Intentions
UK pollsters were originally predicting a landslide for PM May backin April, subsequently leading many to believe that the risk surrounding the election is relatively low, with the Conservative party seen increasing their current majority by some 75-125 seats. However, a notable shift in the polls has been observed since the release of both the Conservatives and Labour parties’ manifestos, moving in favour of the latter. In turn, this has resulted in some modest pullback from 2017 highs in recent weeks and somewhat elevating the risk regarding the election with some polls narrowing the Conservatives lead to as low as 4ppts. However, given the recent performance of UK pollsters over the 2015 election and EU referendum, they could be taken with a pinch of salt.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 7, 2017.
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