Ahead of Sunday’s first round of the French election, we have previously provided several perspectives on the political and economic outcomes, including a permutation matrix of all six possible outcomes in terms of “high” vs “low market risk” (from BofA), why the market may be too complacent about a Le Pen – Melenchon result (candidate approval variance is within the polling error), and that European stocks have completely failed to price in any adverse outcome (as DB observed yesterday).
So with markets now closed, and all bets off, if only for the next two days until the results emerge, here is a complete guide to the first round of the first elections, compiled based on research reports by Deutsche Bank and Citigroup.
Guide to the French elections first round, from Deutsche Bank and Citi
Summary:
The first round of the French Presidential elections will be held on Sunday 23rd April. Most polling stations will close at 7pm local time but some will remain open until 8pm local time. The first exit polls should be published at 8pm but may have to be taken cautiously. By midnight local time we could expect to have a clear picture of who would make it to the second round. Since publication of our initial comprehensive piece on the French elections, the polls for the four major candidates have narrowed considerably and Mlenchon has replaced Hamon on the left wing. The narrowing of the polls and the historical error in actual voting relative to polls makes any of the six outcomes involving the four major candidates possible.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 22, 2017.
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