Where Are All The World’s Billionaires?

Billionaires are the richest of the rich. Many young entrepreneurs hope to one-day reach this ultimate financial milestone. But before these entrepreneurs are allowed to join this group, they first must ask how did billionaires acquire their wealth in the first place? Take a look at the map below to see the distribution of billionaires by country and type.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

Trump to Collapse the Dollar in 2017? Analyst Sees ‘Economic Crisis Coming’

The demise of the dollar and the collapse of the economy could impact us in a big way during 2017, or in the near future.
For better or worse, the age of Trump could soon become synonymous with financial crisis on a scale that has never before been seen.
The system is looking for a scapegoat, for someone to blame, as a massive debt bubble – across several industries – threatens to burst, and a host of other systemic financial problems threaten to collapse down upon us.

This post was published at shtfplan on December 29th, 2016.

The Political Left’s Shmoo Theory of Education

‘Uneducated’ is the favorite insult and excuse of the political left. In the past year alone, for example, a lack of education among voters has been used to explain each of the left’s electoral failures, as well as to dismiss criticisms of its people, policies, and institutions. These defenses are dubious to say the least. Yet setting aside the strategic choices of left-wing political groups, the obsession with un-education reveals that there are serious problems with the way education is understood by the intellectual classes.
Most importantly, the popular use of the word ‘education’ suffers from the same error as the mainstream economic use of the word ‘capital.’ This shouldn’t be a surprise, given that education is often metaphorically described as ‘human capital.’ The error is that both capital and education are thought of as a kind of ‘homogeneous blob,’ or ‘shmoo.’ A shmoo is elastic and can be molded by the user into any shape necessary, and it’s therefore equally serviceable in all possible uses. Anyone who wants to use it as a production input must simply decide how much to apply to a specific problem.
In reality, of course, capital and education are both highly heterogeneous. The structure of production is extremely delicate and difficult to organize, and so too is the structure of human knowledge.
Unfortunately, this fact escapes those intellectuals who concern themselves with other people’s lack of education: in current discourse, education is a homogeneous good acquired exclusively through obtaining formal degrees. To lack a college degree is to lack education, while the more degrees one acquires, the better educated one is. Importantly, all education is equally serviceable across all areas of expertise.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Dec 29, 2016.

Obama’s Vacation Costs Expected To Top $90 Million Over 8 Years

As the first family enjoys their 29th, and last, vacation on the taxpayer dime, we thought it would be appropriate to highlight just how much money the Obama’s have spent on expensive golf resorts, exclusive beach villas and African safaris over the past 8 years. Per a study conducted by Judicial Watch, taxpayers will have spent nearly $90 million on vacations for the first family after their current, annual trip to Hawaii wraps up on January 2nd.
Of course, with each trip to Obama’s home state costing $3 – $4 million a pop, it’s not difficult to see how the costs add up quickly. As McClatchy points out, the cost of Air Force One, fighter jet escorts, helicopters, cargo planes, secret service advance teams, etc. can get costly.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

The Central Banks Have Positioned The Economy To Collapse – Episode 1165a

The following video was published by X22Report on Dec 29, 2016
Trump announces that Sprint will bring back 5,000 jobs. Gold surges on a huge purchase of paper contracts. Mini bubbles are now ready to burst. NYC real estate is now declining rapidly, this is the beginning of the real estate market breaking apart. Italian banks are now seeing a bank run on their banks and they need more capital to keep the banks afloat. The entire economy is now setup for the economic reset. The central bankers are prepared and ready to throw the switch to bring the entire economy down.

Inside Another Record-Setting Streak For The S&P 500

The S&P 500 has now tied a record with 9 consecutive days trading within the range set 10 days ago; what are the ramifications of the streak and its resolution?
Last Monday, we noted that for the first time in the history of the S&P 500, the index put together 3 consecutive Inside Days. That is, for 3 straight days, the high-low range was inside the range of the preceding day. We have no record of that ever occurring since the inception of the index in 1950. As noted in that post, ‘the idea behind the supposed usefulness of such events is that it signifies a contraction in prices and indecision among investors. Trading textbooks would say that whichever way prices eventually break out of such a contraction (i.e., up or down), it is likely to determine the direction of the subsequent trend.’ While no signal works 100% of the time, a study into price behavior following historical Double Inside Days in the S&P 500 did provide evidence for the theory that the direction of the initial breakout is a good indicator of the direction of the subsequent trend.
Well, since the S&P 500 initially broke the Triple Inside Days by putting in a higher high on December 20, the suggestion was that more upside was to follow. That hasn’t panned out – yet. The index closed today roughly 1% below its ‘breakout’ close. So, it has work to do if it is going to perform according to the textbooks.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

Michael Moore Urges Civil Disobedience At Trump’s Inauguration, Warns “It’s Going To Be A Lot Worse”

Filmmaker Michael Moore is calling for mass demonstrations and disruptions to the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
The outspoken liberal filmmaker suggested on Facebook his “5 Things You Can Do Right Now About Donald J. Trump,” outlining a plan for sustained resistance to Trump’s agenda.
It’s been seven weeks since Hillary beat Trump by nearly 3 million votes but lost the presidency to him. So if your head is still spinning from that mindf***, or you can’t quite believe a malignant narcissist will now sit in the Oval Office, or if you are simply still working your way through the 17 stages of grief, then I am here to say to you, “There’s no crying in TrumpLand — Let’s get to work!” All hands on deck! Brush your yourself off and let’s get busy because: a) All hope is not lost; b) There are more of us than there are of them; and c) The roadside is littered with the ended careers of self-absorbed, narcissistic politicians whose arrogance led them to do things that caused their early resignation or impeachment. Don’t think that can’t happen here.
I do not say these things because I am filled with optimism. In fact, I think the first thing we all have to do in order to move on is to admit out loud what we already think privately: As bad as we know it’s going to be, it’s actually going to be worse. A lot worse. Now cheer up and read on…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

DEC 29/TOSHIBA BRINGS A BLOODBATH IN TOYKO AS IT HAS FALLEN 50% IN 3 DAYS AND THIS TIME IT HAS TAKEN TWO BANKS WITH THEM/ITALIAN GOVERNMENT FURIOUS WITH THE ECB FOR REVEALING A RUN ON THE MONTE D…

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1156.40 UP $17.00
silver at $16.16: UP 17 cents
Access market prices:
Gold: $1158.40
Silver: $16.18
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
THURSDAY gold fix Shanghai
Shanghai morning fix Dec 29 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1161.18
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1141.90 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $14.93
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1160.85
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1148.85 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
HUGE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $12.00
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Fix: Dec 29: 5:30 am est: $.1145.90 (NY: same time: $1146.50 5:30AM)
London Second fix Dec 29: 10 am est: $1145.80 (NY same time: $1138.60 ??? 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
end

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on December 29, 2016.

Can The Canadian Oil Industry Recover In 2017?

Even with oil barely over half of what it fetched in June of 2014 and the active drilling rig count doing better than (December 20, 2016 – 257, December 16, 2014 – 420; source JWN Rig Locator) compared to two years ago, it is obviously reckless to declare next year a success while it hasn’t even started yet.
However, it appears 2017 will provide significantly better times than the two previous years perhaps not by design but by exception. It won’t be as bad as 2016 because oil and gas prices are higher and it looks to be headed in an opposite direction from 2015 which was characterized by continuous contraction. Historically, most times this industry looks forward with even modest optimism it has been incorrect. The herd always seems to be going in the wrong direction. Super.
However, the recent OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation meetings have placed a floor under oil prices. Bloomberg News ran a headline December 18 declaring, ‘OPEC Deal Makes Oil Investors Most Bullish Since Slump Began’. It reported about the weekly data from the U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission where speculators report trading positions. The last time this many traders were going ‘long’ on crude was July of 2014. Meanwhile, the shorts continue to retreat. One New York hedge fund manager said, ‘There’s been a full embrace of the OPEC, non-OPEC deal. They are being given the benefit of the doubt. The consensus is supplies will tighten quickly and as a result investors are positioning for higher prices in the near term.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

Copper Leads the Way Lower for Bond Yields

Just a week ago, China was facing a banking system crisis that necessitated an injection of 375 billion yuan ($53 billion) into the money market, and that was after the prior week’s injection of 250 billion yuan ($36 billion). But now, after Christmas has passed, the crisis seems to be abating. That is good news for bond prices worldwide, including in the US.
And the resolution was foretold by copper prices, which is the really cool part of this.
This week’s chart compares spot copper prices to the yield on the Chinese 10-year government bond. There is an obvious correlation, which is nice to know, but that is not what is interesting. Finding two data series which behave exactly like each other is terribly boring. There is no insight there. The fun comes when there are two data series that are almost the same, but one is slightly different, and that one gives insights about the other.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 12/29/2016.

Soaring Direct Demand for 7Y Treasury Suggests Great Rotation May Be Ending

While we previously observed the dramatic plunge in repo rates for 5 Year Treasuries, which after yesetrday’s stellar auction turned even more “special” hitting a near record -250 bps for off the run issues in repo this morning…

… the 7 Year has been far less subdued, without a clear short interest pressing the bond heading into today’s auction.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

Lots Of Divergence, But Need Buying Trigger

As I have now been publishing my analysis on markets for a bit over 5 years, I have seen these set ups quite a number of times on many different time scales. You see, the metals complex has now dropped for months and even deeper than we had initially expected back in September when we began looking down after the first corrective bounce. And, we have been dropping since that time with positive divergences developing on most of the charts we track.
When we have seen these same set ups in the past, the longer and deeper they go, the stronger the reversal we usually see. Again, this is an exercise in probabilities, and the probabilities suggest that the market will likely turn up in a very strong manner after this type of positively divergent decline.
The best example of this same scenario that I can remember was back in 2011. The stock market had just seen a strong rally off a major bottoming in 2011, but was dropping during the month of November, which made many people believe the prior rally was going to be completely nullified. I remember this period of time well since I was calling that drop in November a corrective pullback, which I believed was setting up a strong rally. Many were fighting me on that perspective at the time, believing that the market was going to be dropping much, much lower. In fact, when you look at the pattern, it even looks a lot like the current gold pattern, and the sentiment is clearly in line with that time period as well.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 December 2016.

Will Trump Bring Inflation to America’s Shores?

Something is brewing in the economy. Since the election of Donald Trump, interest rates have spiked, copper prices have surged, and various sectors of the stock market have swung ‘bigly’ on speculation of what ‘Trumponomics’ will bring.
Scores of triumphant Republican commentators are already painting a bullish picture of the Trump economy. The GOP – which will control the White House, Congress, and most state governments – has a rare opportunity to implement a pro-growth agenda.
Republicans squandered their last great window of opportunity. George W. Bush and his Congressional allies grew government spending at a faster clip than the economy and saddled the country with trillions of dollars in new debt.
It’s too early to tell whether Republicans will finally get serious about fiscal responsibility. No one knows exactly how Donald Trump will govern or how the economy will perform under his presidency. But one trend that is now being signaled by markets is a pick-up in inflation.
Bonds and Base Metals Are Signaling Future Inflation
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note spiked from 1.9% on Election Day to as high as 2.5% by Christmas. For the bond market to move that far that fast is unusual. In fact, it was the sharpest yield surge in 15 years.
What may be worrying the bond market is the potential for the government’s borrowing needs to grow under the Trump presidency. Rising debt means rising credit risk and inflation risk, which means higher bond yields.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 December 2016.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 10K

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 265,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 275,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 263,750.
There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 95 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. [See full report] Today’s seasonally adjusted 265K new claims, down 10K from last week’s number, was slightly worse than the Investing.com forecast of 264K.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 12/29/2016.

Dan Loeb Will Pay More Than $2 Million To His New 32-Year-Old Head Quant

It was some time back in 2009 when we first predicted that in a world in which central banks have taken away the “fun” from fundamental analysis (having effectively nationalized capital “markets”), that in the not too distant future quants – or “traders” whose only value added is to react rapidly after the news and/or be the fastest to chase any given momentum wave – would be paid far better than plain-vanilla fundamental analysts – those who use conventional financial analysis to make price forecasts, and whose work has traditionally been highly prized by hedge funds, yet are now on their way to becoming obsolete in the New Normal.
For the likes of Dan Loeb, and his Third Point, once a staunchly fundamental-analysis only driven hedge fund, that time has arrived.
According to Bloomberg, Dan Loeb will pay Matt Ober, a quant, pardon “data scientist” who left WorldQuant for Third Point more than $2 million according to a breach of contract claim filed by his former employer.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.

Gold Market Morning: Dec-29-2016 — Gold and Silver base-building

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,140.90 28th December after closing at $1,132.00 on the 27th December. London opened again at $1,148.50 today.
Overall the dollar is weaker against global currencies today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.0450: 1 from $1.0436: 1 yesterday.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 102.91 from 103.21 yesterday.
– The Yen was stronger at 116.45: $1 from yesterday’s 117.77 against the dollar.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.9366: $1, from 6.9578: $1, yesterday.
– The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.2259: 1 from yesterday’s $1.2226: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Compare the close in New York at $1,140.90 against Shanghai’s $1,175 yesterday [the SGE only gives the Fix the day after now], then London’s opening of $1,148.50. Allow $5 for the difference in the quality of gold being priced in Shanghai and you can see that Shanghai is leading the way now, significantly! With few sales and no purchases from or into the gold ETFs in the U. S. in the gold price continues to reflect the dollar’s moves but with Chinese demand now having a direct input as gold flows from the sellers of gold ETFs to Shanghai. The price difference between New York and Shanghai is at $30 and between London and Shanghai at $22.
For New York to have the dominant impact on the gold price sales from the gold ETFs have to continue to be substantial on a daily basis.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 December 2016.

Relationship Between The Dollar And Inflation Expectations Has Completely Reversed Since Summer

At least since 2003 (which is when our data on TIPS begins), the dollar and breakeven inflation expectations have had a negative relationship. Said differently, when the dollar strengthens (as it has done recently) inflation expectations tend to fall and vice versa. (note: the USD index is inverted in all the charts below)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 29, 2016.