Red Flag on Recession Crops up in NY Fed’s Coincident Economic Index

Last time the index declined was in November 2009.
‘Our Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) for November show economic activity declining for the 3rd straight month in New York State, flattening out in New York City, and remaining essentially flat in New Jersey’: so the New York Fed.
The CEI for New York State fell at an annual rate of 1.9%, following a 1.1% decrease in October, and a 1.0% decrease in September. The index is still up 1.9% over the past 12 months, but is now below where it had been in June and is just above its level in May:

This post was published at Wolf Street on Dec 22, 2016.

Carl Icahn “Concerned” About “Lack Of Stock Selling” Last Few Weeks

Newly announced special advisor to Donald Trump on regulation, billionaire Catli Icahn, is worried. During a lengthy interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report,” Icahn was repeatedly asked if he was concerned about the market – which has shot up considerably since Trump won the presidency – “it’s nuts that the market’s up 12% in a couple weeks.”
*ICAHN: BECOMING MORE HEDGED AS STOCK MARKET RUNS UP *ICAHN: CONCERNED LACK OF STOCK SELLING LAST FEW WEEKS *ICAHN REITERATES CRITICISM LOW INTEREST RATES CAUSED BUBBLES *ICAHN: ILL THOUGHT-OUT TO KEEP INTEREST RATES SO LOW THIS LONG *ICAHN SAYS BE WARY, MANY UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD FOR STOCK MARKET *ICAHN: YEAH I’M CONCERNED ABOUT THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

Trumpocalypse? Suddenly Liberals Are The Ones Stockpiling Food, Guns And Emergency Supplies

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, many liberals all over America have suddenly become extremely interested in prepping. Fearing that a Trump presidency could rapidly evolve into a ‘Trumpocalypse’, a significant number of leftists are now stockpiling food, guns and emergency supplies. In fact, even though many had expected a sharp drop in gun sales following Trump’s victory, what actually happened is that fear of what is coming under Trump pushed background checks for gun sales to an all-time record high on Black Friday. The election of Donald Trump has awakened the left to a degree that we haven’t seen in decades, and some on the left are embracing hardcore survivalism without any apologies.
What is ironic about all of this is that on the other end of the political spectrum interest in prepping is probably the lowest that it has ever been in the history of the modern prepper movement. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about how it was like ‘a nuclear bomb went off in the prepping community’, and nothing has changed since that time.
In fact, since I originally wrote that article we have gotten some hard numbers that show how dramatically optimism about the future has surged among those on the right.
Just before the election, CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey found that only 15 percent of all Republicans believed that the economy would improve over the next year, but after the election that number skyrocketed all the way up to 74 percent.

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on December 22nd, 2016.

Red Flag For Markets: Pension Funds To Sell “Near Record” Amount Of Stocks In The Next Few Days

One of the recurring comments about the “Trumpflation” rally, which has sent US stock markets to constant record highs and pushed the Dow Jones just shy of 20,000 has been that there is virtually nobody selling. According to a poll released today by Reuters, which surveyed 45 fund managers and CIOs around the globe, investors’ equity holdings rose to six-month highs in December on bets that buying at all time highs would mean selling even higher.
“Be ready to buy dips,” Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London Asset Management, told Reuters however that has proven difficult in the past two months as there have been largely no dips to buy. As Carl Icahn lamented earlier on CNBC, “nobody is selling.”
However, according to a new analysis from Credit Suisse, a “seller” may emerge, and a very determined one at that.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

China “Shocked” By Navarro Appointment, As Trump Team Proposes 10% Import Tariff

As the FT first reported yesetrday, in a dramatic development for Sino-US relations, Trump picked Peter Navarro, a Harvard-trained economist and one-time daytrader, to head the National Trade Council, an organization within the White House to oversee industrial policy and promote manufacturing. Navarro, a hardcore China hawk, is the author of books such as “Death by China” and “Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World” has for years warned that the US is engaged in an economic war with China and should adopt a more aggressive stance, a message that the president-elect sold to voters across the US during his campaign.
In the aftermath of Navarro’s appointment, many were curious to see what China’s reaction would be, and according to the FT, Beijin’s response has been nothing short of “shocked.” To wit:
The appointment of Peter Navarro, a campaign adviser, to a formal White House post shocked Chinese officials and scholars who had hoped that Mr Trump would tone down his anti-Beijing rhetoric after assuming office.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

DEC 22/BITCOIN RISES TO $875 ON CHINA FEARS/PREMIUM OF GOLD AVERAGES $32.00/OZ ON THE TWO FIXES/FUN TO BEGIN AT 7:30 CET TIME WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF A BAIL IN AND NATIONALIZATION OF MONTE DEI P…

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1128.80 DOWN $2.30
silver at $15.82: DOWN 10 cents
Access market prices:
Gold: $1129.00
Silver: $15.80
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
THURSDAY gold fix Shanghai
Shanghai morning fix Dec 22 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1166.22
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1131.30 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $34.92
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1162.04
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1132.40 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
HUGE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $29.64
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on December 22, 2016.

‘Off The Grid’ Economic Indicators Suggest Current Expansion “Has Run Out Of Gas”

This last Morning Markets Briefing of 2016 is our quarterly look at ‘Off the Grid’ economic indicators.
Out key takeaway: the U. S. economy is still growing but in the late stages of the current cycle. Workers are quitting their jobs like it’s the peak of labor market cycle. Also, consumers register confidence more typical of peaks than troughs for this measure. Full sized pickup truck sales are running in line with prior periods of high demand. Used car prices are stable, but have not increased in 5 years. Food stamp enrollment hasn’t declined since May 2016. Gallup’s take on consumers’ daily cash spend is modestly higher than last year, but largely in line with the average of the last 3 years.
Bottom line: this data explains why markets are so enthusiastic about the novelty of Trump presidency, for the current expansion feels very much like it is out of gas.
‘After all, the chief business of the American people is business.’ That quote is not from President-Elect Donald Trump, but rather former President Calvin Coolidge. It is certainly his best known public statement and still cited to this day, a rare acknowledgment of a man whose nickname was ‘Silent Cal’.
Given that U. S. equity markets have rallied since Election Day on the hopes that Donald Trump will channel Coolidge’s sentiment (if not his moniker), let’s take a quick look at the origins and background of this hallmark observation and how some interpret it today:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

TRUMP FIRED THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA | Mike Rivero

The following video was published by FinanceAndLiberty.com on Dec 22, 2016
Mike Rivero from What Really Happened joins Silver Doctors to discuss what a Trump presidency will bring. Rivero says Trump by himself will not be able to bring change without the help of the American people. With Trump at the helm, the rigged election system can finally be fixed. With Trump at the helm, the alternative media can replace the mainstream propaganda.
The electoral college officially voted Trump to be the 45th president of the United States. Trump received over 300 electoral votes Monday. But there’s still nearly a month till inauguration. Stay tuned to hear how the CIA and others are trying to still stop Trump from becoming president…

Home Affordability Drops To 8-Year Lows As Mortgage Rates Surge

One week after Freddie Mac chief economist Sean Becketti warned that “if rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017“, mortgage rates continued their upward trend. According to the latest update from the mortgage giant, the 30-year fixed reached 31-month highs, touching level not seen since April 2014 in the week after the Fed hiked its interest rate for the second time in the past decade.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.3%, up from 4.16% last week, Freddie Mac said in a statement Thursday. The average 15-year rate climbed to 3.52%, the highest since January 2014, from 3.37%.
Mortgage rates have surged since October, when the 30 Year fixed was offered at 3.40%, tracking a jump in Treasury yields on expectations of rising inflation.
Freddie Mac’s chief economist Becketti was more sanguine after last week’s unexpected warning, saying that ‘a week after the only rate hike of 2016, the mortgage industry digested the Fed’s decision. Following Yellen’s speech last Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 10 basis points. The 30-year mortgage rate rose 14 basis points to 4.30 percent, reaching highs we have not seen since April 2014.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

Just Charts at 3:30 – O Holy Night

“Man’s maker became man that He, Ruler of the stars, might nurse at His mother’s breast; that the Bread itself might hunger, the Fountain thirst, the Light sleep, the Way be tired on its journey; that Truth might be accused of false witness, that the Teacher be beaten with whips, the Foundation of creation be suspended on the cross; that Strength itself might grow weak; that the Healer might be wounded; and that Life itself might die to live again.”
Augustine of Hippo
“Only the humble believe in him and rejoice that God is so free and so marvelous that he does wonders where people despair, that he takes what is little and lowly and makes it marvelous. And that is the wonder of all wonders, that God loves the lowly. God is not ashamed of the lowliness of human beings. God marches right in. He chooses people as his instruments and performs his wonders where one would least expect them. God is near to lowliness; he loves the lost, the neglected, the unseemly, the excluded, the weak and broken.”
Dietrich Bonhoeffer
Stocks are off in quiet trade.
Unemployment, income and spending data was worse than expected this morning.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 22 DECEMBER 2016.

Where Has All The Money Gone? Not To Wages For 82% Of The Population!

Where has all the money gone? MZM money growth has averaged 7.54% YoY since 1995, but hourly earnings for 82% of the population has only averaged 2.97% YoY since 1995.
Here is a chart of MZM Money growth YoY along with hourly earnings for the majority of the US population and 1-4 unit residential mortgage debt outstanding.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 22, 2016.

Is The US Gov Pushing Fake Economic Data To Keep Everyone In The Dark? – Episode 1159a

The following video was published by X22Report on Dec 22, 2016
Initial jobless claims spike to 6 months high. Income and savings are declining all at the same time. The existing homes sales are completely inconsistent with the hard data, fake data is being pushed to the American people. Freddie Mac reports homes are out of reach of everyday people. Durable goods decline. Q3 GDP was revised even higher, it is now at 3.5%. The US Gov used manipulation and revisions to get GDP to this point. Italy begins the bail-in, this will spread and it eventually these banks will be shutdown for a bank holiday.

Trump’s Economic Team is a Gathering of Goldbugs

According to Paul Krugman, Trump was installed by Putin and his economic team is a ‘gathering of goldbugs.’ I’m sure he meant that last part in a condescending way, although I view it as flattery.
We all know that John Paulson has been bullish on gold and predicted the price of gold would rise in proportion to Bernanke’s dollar printing. Apparently Mnuchin, Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, is guilty by association. As Krugman pointed out:
Treasury goes to a guy with little public profile, but hangs out with John Paulson (who is also close to Trump). Budget director appears to be John Bircher and conspiracy theorist. Birchers want return to gold and silver, Mulvaney seems to agree.
Mick Mulvaney is Trump’s pick for Budget Director. He gave a speech at the John Birch society in which he criticized the Federal Reserve and said they ‘effectively de-valued the dollar and choked off economic growth.’ Krugman also derided Mulvaney because he praised bitcoin as a currency that is ‘not manipulatable by any government.’

This post was published at GoldStockBull on December 20th, 2016.

Market Mixed as Holiday (and Data) Calls

The Dow 20,000 celebration remained on ice Wednesday, just as it did on Tuesday. That ice, however, hasn’t melted. Expectations are still high that the party will happen before the end of 2016, but just how much of a gap will need to be closed before the ball drops in Times Square remains the question.
Right now, it’s 58.04 points to be precise, and judging by the futures trade this morning, it should be a little more when the cash market opens.
The major indices all drifted lower on Wednesday in a trade that had holiday-mode written all over it. Trading ranges were narrow as neither buyers nor sellers exhibited much conviction; moreover, trading volume at the NYSE was much less than average at 687 million shares.
Friday’s volume totals could very well mark a low for the year since a lot of remaining participants are apt to check out following today’s big batch of economic data while those left behind will be responsible simply for house-sitting.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 12/22/2016.

Saudis Forecast $51 Oil In 2017 Rising To $65 By 2019; Will Spend 20% Of Total Budget On Military

After suffering two record budgets shortfalls in 2015 and 2016 as a result of plunging oil prices, and which nearly brought both Saudi Arabia’s economy and banking sector to a standstill, not to mention billions in unpaid state worker wages at least until generous foreign investors funded the Kingdom’s imminent cash needs with its first, and massive, bond sale ever, today Saudi Arabia released it budget outlook for the next year.
And while the Saudis believe the country’s budget deficit will fall modestly next year even with an increase in spending, it is still set to be a painful 8% of GDP suggesting the Saudi cash burn will continue even with some generous oil price assumptions.
The budget deficit for 2017 is expected decline 33% to 198 billion riyals ($237 billion), or 7.7% of GDP, from 297 billion riyals or 11.5% of GDP in 2016 year and 362 billion riyals in 2015, the Finance Ministry said in a statement on its website on Thursday. In 2016, the finance ministry said its spending of 825 billion riyals ($220 billion) was under the budgeted 840 billion, and the 2016 budget deficit came to 297 billion, below the 362 billion in 2015.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 22, 2016.

2017 Stock Market Forecasts: What Wall Street Won’t Tell You

Investors beware.
Every year in December, Barron’s publishes 2017 stock market forecasts from a group of Wall Street’s most prominent analysts. Every year the mainstream financial media makes a big fuss over them.
This year’s version came out Dec. 17, with a consensus 2017 stock market prediction for a gain of 5.2% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
But anyone who trusts these stock market predictions enough to base investment decisions on them is almost always disappointed.
You see, despite the polished reputations of these Wall Street stars, their stock market forecasts tend to be off. And not by a little…
Why Wall Street’s 2017 Stock Market Forecasts Are So Dangerous
Statistician Salil Mehta has studied these stock market forecasts for years. And he’s found these supposedly ‘expert’ predictions to be less accurate than random guessing.
Mehta, who once served as director of research and analytics for the U. S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program and for the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, points out that over the past 17 years, the Wall Street experts have predicted a decline just 8% of the time individually. (The consensus forecast has an even worse track record: zero percent.)

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on December 22, 2016.