‘Disorderly’ Correction of House Price Bubble in Canada Threatens ‘Financial Stability’: OECD

Jon Blogosphere, Economy, Geopolitics, Market Commentary, Real Estate

What happens ‘if the boom ends with a bang.’
In its economic outlook released today, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is generally gung-ho about the Canadian economy, and practically bubbling over with new enthusiasm for the global economy. It now expects global growth to accelerate from 2.9% this year to 3.3% in 2017 and to 3.6% in 2018. Call it the ‘Trump effect’ gone global.
But for Canada, despite its hunky-dory economy due to the ‘moderately expansionary policy stance in the 2016 federal budget,’ the OECD has a stark warning: ‘House prices, housing investment and household debt are very high, posing financial stability risks.’
The OECD’s chart shows the house price indices for Vancouver and Toronto, which make up about one-third of the national housing market, versus the index for the rest of Canada. Note the hook at the top of the red line: a feeble sign that house prices in Vancouver might be heading south:

This post was published at Wolf Street on November 28, 2016.