Are We Months or Years From a US Recession?

Jon Economy, Market Commentary

The latest data for the Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) came out today and appears to indicate that there is still no imminent risk of recession with forward-looking indicators showing positive, though weak, growth.
If we assume that the Conference Board US LEI continues to weaken from its current 1.1% year-over-year growth rate, historically speaking the average time it takes before we see a recession is 9 months, which would put us on track for August 2017, ranging from as short as 3 months (February 2017) to as long as 18 months (May 2018).

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/18/2016.