How the Dakota Access Pipeline Fight Could Burn Oil Stocks

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
The controversy over the Dakota Access Pipeline poses a bigger threat to U. S. oil stocks than most investors realize.
That’s because the Dakota Access Pipeline fight has implications far beyond whether a single crude oil pipeline will be built or not. It now threatens current and future pipeline projects as well.
This isn’t just bad news for companies that build and operate pipelines, but for the oil producers that need a cheap, reliable way to transport their product to distant refineries.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by David Zeiler ‘ September 23, 2016.

Don’t Bet on Deflation Lasting Forever

More Mumbo-Jumbo
OUZILLY, France – Imagine the poor economist without a sense of humor. How he must suffer! This week was to be dominated by central banks. Two big ones – the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Fed – were to make important policy announcements.
The speculators placed their bets, front-running the news, and sat on the edge of their chairs. This week, the BoJ came out with more mumbo-jumbo. ‘Yield curve control,’ it promised. The central bank says it will target a 0% yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds.
It added that it would continue buying the nation’s stocks (by way of exchange-traded funds) and charging a negative interest rate of 0.1% on the accounts banks keep with it.
Japan’s stock market crashed in 1989. Since then, the no-luck Japanese have had sluggish growth, recession, and on-again/off-again deflation. For more than a quarter-century, the gears of Japan, Inc. have turned slowly. And not for lack of trying.

This post was published at Acting-Man on September 23, 2016.

Why Europe Secretly Roots For Donald Trump

Submitted by Matthew Karnitschnig via Strategic-Culture.org,
Careful observers of European politics might be forgiven for asking if – behind the exclamation of shock and horror over the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency – they don’t detect the occasional wry smile or hint of giddiness when the conversation turns to the U. S. Republican presidential candidate.
To be sure, hardly a day goes by without some senior European official voicing grave concerns over the possibility that Trump might win the elections. European Parliament President Martin Schulz warned recently that Trump ‘would be a problem not just for the EU but for the whole world.’
And yet, in some quarters at least, the Trump cloud carries with it at least a sliver of silver lining. No European politician will say so publicly, but to some on the Continent, Trump presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity for emancipation from American influence.
To varying degrees, America-bashing has been a mainstay on both the Right and Left of European politics for decades. From GMOs to Guantanamo, from the drone war to the death penalty, European politicians have rarely had difficulty finding reasons to rail against the U. S.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.

From Gold Trains to Gold Loans – Banca d’Italia’s Mammoth Gold Reserves

Italy’s gold has had an eventful history. Robbed by the Nazis and taken to Berlin. Loaded on to gold trains and sent to Switzerland. Flown from London to Milan and Rome. Used as super-sized collateral for gold backed loans from West Germany while sitting quietly in a vault in New York. Leveraged as a springboard to prepare for Euro membership entry. Inspired Italian senators to visit the Palazzo Koch in Rome. Half of it is now in permanent residency in downtown Manhattan, or is it? Even Mario Draghi, European Central Bank (ECB) president, has a view on Italy’s gold. The below commentary tries to make sense of it all by bringing together pieces of the Italian gold jigsaw that I have collected.
2,451.8 tonnes
According to officially reported gold holdings, and excluding the gold holdings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Italy’s central bank, the Banca d’Italia, which holds Italy’s gold reserves, is ranked as the world’s third largest official holder of gold after the US and Germany, with total gold holdings of 2,451.8 tonnes, worth more than US$ 105 billion at current market prices. Notable, Italy’s gold is owned by the Banca d’Italia, and not owned by the Italian State. This contrasts to most European nations where the gold reserves are owned by the state and are merely held and managed by that country’s respective central bank under an official mandate.
Italy’s gold reserves have remained constant at 2451.8 tonnes since 1999. Although the Banca d’Italia has been a signatory to all 4 Central Bank Gold Agreements and could have conducted gold sales within the limits of the agreements between 1999 and the present, it did not engage in any gold sales under either CBGA1 (1999-2004), CBGA2 (2004-2009), or CBGA3 (2009-2014), and as of now, has not conducted any sales under CBGA4 (2014-2019). With 2,451.8 tonnes of gold, the Banca d’Italia holds marginally more than the Banque de France, which claims official gold holdings of 2,435.8 tonnes.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 23 Sep 2016.

“FBI Is Handing Out Deals Like Candy” – Cheryl Mills And 2 Other Clinton Aides Get Immunity

We’re beginning to think the entire FBI investigation into Hillary’s private email servers was just a ruse to grant immunity to her entire staff. According to the AP, the House Oversight Committee has just learned that Hillary’s top aide, Cheryl Mills, was also granted immunity along with John Bentel (Director of the State Department’s Office of Information Resources Management) and Heather Samuelson (Clinton aide).
For those of you keeping count, we are now aware of a total of 5 immunity deals offered to people directly involved in the Hillary email scandal:
Cheryl Mills – Clinton’s top aide Heather Samuelson – Clinton aide
John Bentel – Director of the State Department’s Office of Information Resources Management
Bryan Pagliano – Clinton technology aide
Paul Combetta – Platte River Networks
The Chair of the House Oversight Committee, Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), expressed his complete disbelief over the number of immunity deals granted in this investigation. Per The Hill, Chaffetz said that he has “lost confidence in this investigation” noting that “immunity deals should not be a requirement for cooperating with the FBI.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.

State Street: “Move Over Zero Hedge, There Is A New Bear In Town”

By Mr. Risk – State Street Global Markets
Unleash Volatility Beast
Thanks for nothing, central banks!
If central banks provided the prototypical inflection point, risk assets should get destroyed next week. Feast your eyes on a compendium of volatility charts. The beast wants out. Keys to watch: DXY, EURAUD, and 10-year yields. Move over ZEROHEDGE. There is a new BEAR in town, * * *

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.

Market Talk – September 23, 2016

Today was the first day that the Nikkei cash has had to reflect upon the FED’s decision, as was closed Wednesday for a national holiday. Todays trading result was a small decline (-0.3%) which on the heels of the 2% rally Wednesday was quite refreshing. The other core markets also saw a small decline with the shanghai and Hang Seng both closing -0.3%. In late US trading we continue to see small selling but with volume very light and the weekend upon us, it is hardly worthy of discussion. The Shanghai continues to play at the 3k mark but with many markets making similar holding patterns it is only time before we make a decisive break.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 23, 2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – No One Left To Blame

Gold and silver ended the day largely unchanged, digesting the rally that followed the FOMC announcement on Wednesday.
Gold and silver both look to be coiling for a move. They may go lower again to touch that support line, and if they do the point at which they find support may be revealing.
Or not. We may finally get the long anticipated breakout higher.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 23 SEPTEMBER 2016.

Trump Victory Predicted By Professor Who Has Called Every Presidential Race Since 1984

American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, has accurately predicted every U. S. presidential election since 1984 and now he’s calling 2016 for Trump. Lichtman uses a system he calls the “Keys to the White House” which he developed after studying every election cycle from 1860 through 1980.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” are the following 13 true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the re-election of the incumbent party, in this case, Hillary. If, however, the answer to six or more of the 13 keys is “false” then the incumbent loses.
Here is how Lichtman answered his “13 Keys to the White House”:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Lichtman Answer: False – “They got crushed.”
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Lichtman Answer: True
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Lichtman Answer: False

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.

SEPT 23/MILD RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER METALS/HUGE WHACKING ON OUR GOLD/SILVER EQUITIES AS BANKERS THREW ANOTHER TEMPER TANTRUM/GERMAN POLITICIANS ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT DEUTSCHE BANK/POOR RETAIL S…

Gold $1337.20 up $3.20
Silver 19.73 down 29 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1337.50
Silver: 19.67
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON .
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on September 23, 2016.

New York Big Winner In 2015 Real Median Household Income Derby, Virginia and Maryland Big Losers

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Back to the phenomenal Real Median Household Income report from the US Census Bureau for 2015. If you recall, it rose by the most in history, 5.2% from 2014 to 2015. [It’s suspicious] Particularly when the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Disposable Personal Income (DPI) per household grew by only 2.8% from 2014 to 2015.
Bear in mind that the Census Bureau changed its measure of household income in 2014 to make income growth look better. Starting in 2014, the Census Bureau began to ‘collect the value of assets that generate income if the respondent is unsure of the income generated.’ And the government started to use ‘income ranges’ as a follow-up for ‘don’t know’ or ‘refused’ answers on income-amount questions.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ September 23, 2016.

Like Everything Else, History Repeats (Almost Exactly) Because Power Truly Corrupts

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,
With both the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve this week undertaking policy considerations at the same time, it is useful to highlight the similarities of conditions if not exactly in time. As I wrote this morning, what the Fed is attempting now is very nearly the same as what the Bank of Japan did ten years ago. In the middle of 2006, after more than six years of ZIRP and five years of several QE’s, the Bank of Japan judged economic conditions sufficiently positive to begin the process of policy ‘exit’ by first undertaking the rate ‘liftoff.’
If you read through the policy statement from July 2006 it sounds as if it were written by American central bank officials in July 2016. Swap out the year and the country and you really wouldn’t be able to tell the difference.
Japan’s economy continues to expand moderately, with domestic and external demand and also the corporate and household sectors well in balance. The economy is likely to expand for a sustained period… The year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices is projected to continue to follow a positive trend. With incoming data judged as meeting predetermined criteria (they were somewhat ‘data dependent’, too), the Bank of Japan voted to raise their benchmark short-term rate but were careful, just like the Fed since December, to assure ‘markets’ that it would be a gradual change only in the level of further ‘accommodation.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.

Traveling Circus

Submitted by Paul Brodksy Of Macro Allocation.com
After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.
Central banks in G7 economies have been carrying a heavy load for a very long time, especially noticeable to all since 2009. Zero and negative sovereign interest rates, asset purchase programs and whack-a-mole currency devaluations have avoided a counterfactual that would have included credit exhaustion, debt deflation and economic contraction.
Their now conventional unconventional monetary policies have been overlaid by communications policies that have fostered a narrative of economic normality and cyclicality. It all seems rather disingenuous given their successful coup de march, and maybe a bit delusional too given their serious demeanors discussing Philips curve stuff in the face of balance sheet time bombs.
And now…central banks seem exhausted too, not only in terms of being able to stimulate consumption and levitate asset prices, but also in terms of their communications policies that suggest they can.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 23, 2016.