SOMETHING BIG HAPPENED IN THE GOLD MARKET: Must See Charts

Something BIG happened in the gold market this year and very few investors understand the significance. While precious metal analysts debate whether the huge gold rally since the beginning of the year is sustainable, I am beginning to wonder if certain indicators are no longer reliable.
I’ll get into that in a moment, but wanted to share a few things as it pertains to my views on the precious metals.
A few weeks ago I was able to get away on a short vacation with my family. We stayed at a nice Bread & Breakfast and at night I enjoyed listening to several different guests talking about their jobs and past-times. In my experience, I have found out that the majority of people would rather talk about themselves rather than listen to others. This doesn’t bother me at all as I get to learn more things with my mouth shut than I do with it open.
Regardless, the most interesting chat I had was with the Bread & Breakfast owner’s son. He stated to talk about the Presidential race and it moved to different aspects of the economy and finance. It happens that the son went to college to study economics, so this was a huge treat for me as I had a good idea where this would lead.
Before I could mention the subject of precious metals, my wife (sitting next to me) asked the son, ‘If he had a nice chunk of change to invest, what would he invest in?’ I knew where my wife was going with this because she knows a lot about gold and silver due to my 15 years of boring her to death with all the details.
Anyhow, his answer was quite interesting. He said, ‘I would buy travel Visa’s’ I thought that was an interesting answer as I have never heard of it before. He explained why he would invest in that, then I asked him what he thought about the precious metals?? His answer was, ‘YOU CAN’T EAT GOLD.’ He did not have anything good to say about the precious metals…. LOLOL.
I didn’t find this surprising at all, as I’ve heard that KNEE-JERK response over and over from supposedly intelligent individuals. Actually the next day, I thought it might be a good idea for a promotional precious metals T-SHIRT by having on one side of the shirt printed with, YOU CAN’T EAT GOLD, and on the other side, YOU CAN’T EAT YOUR 401K.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on July 19, 2016.

Gold Gets $1,500 Vote this Presidential Election

Many political and social upheavals this year have contributed to gold’s continued bullish run. From the Fed’s quarterly passes on rate hikes toBritain’s exit from the EU, the year’s turmoil has helped keep the yellow metal at a 25% increase for 2016.
The upcoming presidential election may prove to be one of the biggest unknowns that keep gold prices headed north. DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’sforeign exchange strategist, Benjamin Wong stated:
The market has yet to deal with the political uncertainty going into the Nov. 8 presidential election … We remain bullish and gold carries an overweight rating.’
To their credit, DBS Group Holdings Ltd. called gold’s rally this year. Last October, the fund bet on gold gaining in 2016 based on its prediction the Fed would raise rates very slowly. Recently, it’s been actively advising investors to buy during any downturns in the price of gold.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 19, 2016.

Trump ‘Close Friend’ Unleashes Economic Reality Check: America Is “Lost In The Black Hole Of Entitlement”

On Monday, Thomas Barrack, a globe-trotting billionaire real-estate investor in Los Angeles who describes Trump as a “close friend,” published a 12-page treatise on the economy. As Bloomberg reports, it doesn’t mention Trump, but it’s a kind of defense of Trump’s critique of international trade.
The paper is in no way an official statement from the Trump campaign; it reflects only Barrack’s personal views. But Trump, a real-estate developer and reality-TV star with no experience in public service, relies on friends and family for advice more than many politicians do. Barrack is scheduled to speak at the Republican convention in Cleveland this week where Trump will be officially named the party’s nominee.
He contends the Western economic institutions — the system of free trade agreements, the central banks — were once effective but are now antiquated, contributing to growing inequality and resentment. He faults the U. S. for negotiating trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership to further national-security objectives while, in his estimation, ignoring the economic impact of lost jobs at home. He calls for the North American Free Trade Agreement to be renegotiated in unspecified ways. He says the current round of unconventional monetary policy is doing more harm than good, and that the U. S. government’s debt is unsustainable.
“Opaque global monetary policies combined with unfocused, poorly negotiated international trade agreements are undermining the entire project of globalization as proponents of these policies face a growing backlash among voters,” he writes.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

So What Did The ECB Buy? “In Short, Almost Everything”

Yesterday for the first time, the various central banks of the Eurosystem disclosed which bonds the ECB had bought under its CSPP program. Specifically, we broke down the purchases of the Bundesbank, which revealed some of the most prominent public company debt issuers in Europe. However, we were curious to get a more detailed look at what Mario Draghi’s trading desk was spending their time BWICing all day. For that we went to the undisputed master when it comes to tracking what the ECB does in the bond realm (because the ECB is not buying equities just yet), BofA’s Barnaby Martin.
Here is the big picture as revealed in his report today titled “CSPP: Buying Frenzy” – “in just over a month of the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme, the ECB have bought 458 bonds, with virtually no stone left unturned. With the monthly run-rate of buying hovering around the 8.5bn mark, our conclusion for CSPP is, bluntly, that it is too big, too powerful and ultimately too bullish for spreads.”
But the best part was Martin’s answer to the key question: “So what did they buy?” His answer: “In short, almost everything.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

It Begins, The Declining Global Economy Is Being Blamed On The BREXIT – Episode 1026a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 19, 2016
European economic confidence plummets. Gallup reports that the confidence in the economy is declining rapidly. After revisions the US government makes it look like housing is recovering but when you look at the YOY it is declining, actually we are back to 1991 levels. Luxury housing in the South Hampton area plummets, sales decline and prices fall. The London housing market is declining and this has nothing to do with the BREXIT. The IMF is now blaming the global economic slowdown on the BREXIT. Obama is moving towards a government insurance system, this was his plan all along

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Summer Wind

“You will find that the truth is often unpopular and the contest between agreeable fancy and disagreeable fact is unequal. For, in the vernacular, we Americans are suckers for good news.”
Adlai Stevenson
Gold and silver were drifting largely sideways today in what can best be described as the ‘Summer trade.’
We may see a little more action next week with the option expiration. Or some exogenous event could certainly liven things up.
Positional trading is fine, but short term trading markets like these tends to exhaust the retail trader with commissions.
Put more simply, short term trading these dull markets is for suckers, and those who prey on them.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 19 JULY 2016.

WHITE HOUSE CLAIMS THAT STUDENT DEBT IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY

These days, student loan debt is probably one the most controversial and maligned issues in America. Pretty much everyone agrees that these debts are overwhelming young people, and preventing them from starting productive lives. That is, everyone except The Council of Economic Advisors, a research group that works for the White House.
The organization recently released a paper which argued that these student loans are actually beneficial to the economy. ‘Federal student loan programs help expand access to high-quality education, which has long-lasting benefits to individuals as well as the overall macroeconomy through higher labor productivity and faster GDP growth.’ The report goes on to claim that the Fed’s student loan program has helped build skills among workers, earning them more money and driving growth.
In reality, unless you earn a degree in a field that society needs, like say science, medicine, or engineering, you’re probably not going to earn enough money to justify your student loan.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on JULY 19, 2016.

JULY 19/SILVER COMEX RECORDS ITS HIGHEST EVER OPEN INTEREST AND YET SILVER REMAINS 29 DOLLARS BELOW ITS ALL TIME HIGH!/GOLD RISES AND REMAINS ROBUST DESPITE HIGH USA DOLLAR/SILVER FALLS SLIGHTLY/…

Gold:1331.50 UP $3.10
Silver 19.98 DOWN 7 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1331.50
Silver: 19.92
For the July gold contract month, we had a small 10 notices served upon for 1,000 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery: 5060 for 506,000 oz or 15.738 tonnes
In silver we had 239 notices served upon for 1,195,000 oz. The total number of notices filed so far this month for delivery: 2068 for 10,340,000 oz
I wrote this yesterday and it certainly holds for today:
‘It sure looks to me like the bankers are trapped in silver. The OI continues to either stay constant or rise. ‘
Silver today at the comex recorded an all time record for open interest and yet the price is 29 dollars cheaper. It defies commodity law!
Let us have a look at the data for today.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 307.70 tonnes for a gain of 5 tonnes over that period
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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY 1597 contracts UP to 219,101, AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD. THE OI ROSE IN CONTRAST TO THE PRICE OF SILVER WHICH FELL BY 5 CENTS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.095 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver we had 239 notices served upon for 1,195,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 1,662 contracts as gold rose in price YESTERDAY to the tune of $0.10. The total gold OI stands at 614,667 contracts.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD
we had no changes in gold inventory.
Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 965.22 tonnes
SLV
we had no changes into the SILVER INVENTORY TO THE SLV
Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 19, 2016.

This Is What Hyperinflationary Collapse Looks Like

There was some good news for citizens of Venezuela yesterday, when the government – having mostly given up on trying to provide its citizens’ with even the most basic food needs – announced it has opened its border with Colombia for the second time this month to allow people to buy food and medicine unavailable at home in their country’s collapsing economy. Colombia’s government said 44,000 people crossed on Saturday to buy food, medicine and cleaning products and said it expected that number to almost double on Sunday.
Bus terminals were packed and hotels filled to capacity in the border town of San Antonio, with many traveling hundreds of miles to shop.
The result of the scramble to obtain much needed staples is shown in the photos below.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

Which European Bank is Most Exposed to Fallout in Turkey?

Doubling down on Emerging Market bets.
Once upon a time, Spain’s second biggest bank, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), was a distinguished member of the global club of systemically important financial institutions (SIFI). It was, officially speaking, too big to fail. That all changed in November last year, when it was decided that BBVA had ‘declining systemic importance.’ It lost its SIFI status and was relegated to mere mortal status, now presumably allowed to fail.
BBVA makes most of its money outside Spain. Its two main overseas profit centers are Mexico, where the bank owns a majority stake in the second biggest bank, Bancomer, and Turkey, where it recently consolidated its control of Garanti, the country’s third biggest bank. The acquisition of 40% of the bank’s shares gave BBVA control of the board and a huge presence in what was a very important – and lucrative – emerging market.
In the good times, BBVA’s investment in Turkey paid off handsomely. Even in the tumultuous first quarter of 2016, BBVA received 21% of its operating income and 13% of its net profits from Garanti’s operations. The country also accounts for roughly 5% of the group’s loans.
But now, the times appear to have changed. Friday’s failed but bloody coup d’etat has ramped up tensions in an already deeply divided nation. Deutsche Bank analysts revealed in a note on Monday that BBVA is the most vulnerable among all European banks to risks linked to political turmoil in Turkey. The next four most-at-risk banks: Italy’s embattled TBTF entity Unicredit, French behemoth BNP Paribas, Dutch giant ING, and the UK’s ultimate refuge of scoundrels, HSBC.
But it was BBVA that was hit the most in Monday’s trading, as its stock shed almost 3%. On Turkey’s stock exchange Garanti ended the day 7% down.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Don Quijones ‘ July 19, 2016.

S&P Cuts Deutsche Bank Outlook To Negative On “Challenging Operating Conditions”

It has been a while since investors focused their attention on the world’s “most systematically risky” bank, Deutsche Bank. Moments ago, S&P made sure to remind us that nothing is fixed, when it released a report saying that “Operating Conditions May Challenge Strategy Execution” but keeping the bank at a BBB rating.
The full report below:
Deutsche Bank Outlook Revised To Negative As Operating Conditions May Challenge Strategy Execution; Ratings Affirmed
We believe the difficult operating environment may challenge Deutsche Bank as it undertakes a material restructuring of its business model and balance sheet. We are revising our outlook on Deutsche Bank to negative from stable. We are affirming our ‘BBB /A-2’ issuer credit ratings on Deutsche Bank. The negative outlook reflects the possibility that we may lower the long-term issuer credit rating if market conditions challenge Deutsche Bank’s ability to preserve its capital and maintain its franchise while implementing its restructuring plans. LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) July 19, 2016–S&P Global Ratings said today that it revised the outlook on Germany-based Deutsche Bank AG to negative from stable. The ‘BBB /A-2’ global scale, ‘cnA ’ Greater China regional scale, and ‘trAAA/trA-1’ Turkey national scale issuer credit ratings were affirmed.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

Confidence In The Economy Slumps To Multi-Year Lows: Gallup

When we reported yesterday that “After Eight Years Of “Hope And Change”, Voters Are Angry” we pointed out one of the counterpoints presented by AP, according to which it is confusing why the US population would be angry when “the economy is growing, jobs are being created and unemployment is low.” We countered by observing that unemployment is low only because 94 million Americans are out of the labor force for reasons of their own choosing, while the jobs being created are mostly all in the minimum wage space, with an emphasis on waiters and bartenders.
Which leaves the economy, which to be sure, if only relies only on (double) seasosnally-adjusted government data and conflicted (seasonally-adjusted) manufacturing service sentiment surveys, is certainly in an upswing.
Yet one place which fails to corroborate the recovering economy are the monthly Gallup surveys, and especially the most recent one released earlier today, according to which Americans’ confidence in the economy remains weak, with Gallup’s U. S. Economic Confidence Index at -17 last week, consistent with levels seen since mid-June. This is in contrast to the stronger confidence levels seen for most of the first half of the year, when the index averaged -12. At -17, this reading is tied for the worst economic confidence reading recorded in the last few years, and suggests that Americans’ take on the economy is getting worse, not better.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

“Whatever It Takes” Has Failed – European Economic Confidence Crashes To 4-Year Lows

If the premise of central-banking largesse is to maintain (or inspire) economic confidence, then Mario Draghi’s smoke and mirrors have officially failed. This morning’s ZEW data on German and European Consumer confidence is a disaster. Both the current situation and expectations for Germany tumbled but most worryingly, the ‘hope’ for European economic growth has crashed to its lowest since Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” in the summer of 2012.
How long before “whatever it takes” morphs into shock and awe “helicopter money”? How else will Europe afford all the immigrants?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

Turkey Denies Reports Of Explosion, Says Building Caught Fire, Blaze Under Control

#Turkey #UPDATE Black clouds imerge as a huge explosion rocked the city of #Ankara pic.twitter.com/2HcYYbsuoX
— GlobalIntelInsight (@global_awar) July 19, 2016

Update: A huge fire erupted in a residential building in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Tuesday, an official said as cited by Reuters. Earlier Sky News Arabia reported that a huge blast had hit the city.
Images of a massive black cloud of smoke rising above Ankara emerged on social media, as the city recovers from Friday’s attempted coup.
The incident reportedly happened near one of the city’s universities.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

Gold Market Morning: July-19-2016 — Gold and silver prices base building!

Gold Today -Gold closed in New York at $1,329.30 on Monday after Friday’s close at $1,328.50. In Asia, the gold price tried to rise slightly again. The arbitrage potential remains very small at the moment.
– The $: rose slightly to $1.1058 down from $1.1054.
– The dollar index rose to 96.77 from 96.58 Monday.
– The Yen was slightly weaker at 106.11 from Monday’s 105.66 against the dollar.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.6920 from 6.6980 Monday.
– The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.31.67 down from Monday’s$1.3274
Yuan Gold Fix
The Chinese gold market tried to rise again but closed only slightly changed in Shanghai. The arbitrage ‘spread’ is very small, at the moment.
It is becoming clearer to all in the financial world that very low interest rates will remain at these levels or lower for the next decade or so. Inflation is trying to rise in the U. K. and other countries but is struggling to do so, in others.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2016.

BofA Finds Something Odd: With The S&P At Record Highs, Traders Have Never Been More Nervous

A strange paradox emerges when flipping though the latest BofA Fund Managers’ Survey: with the S&P trading at all time highs, it appears that nobody trusts this market. Two specific indicators point to this. The first one is that as BofA’s Michael Harnett points out, July cash level are now at 5.8%, up from 5.7% in June and the highest since Nov’01.
But more notably is that at least according to the survey respondents, investor buying of protection against sharp decline in stock market at record high, something which would not be happening if the market was “normal” and if traders expected a continuation of the recent upward trend in stocks. It may also explain why the levitation continues to be on virtually no volume – simply said, nobody, except algos, squeezed shorts and the occasional stock buyback order, are participating!

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2016.

British Pouring Up to Half of Their Net-Worth Into Gold Post-Brexit

The Japanese economy is a mess.
The Japanese are buying gold.
The Chinese economy is a mess.
The Chinese are buying gold.
And the United Kingdom has been thrown into a sea of uncertainty in the wake of the Brexit vote. So what are the British people doing?
Buying gold.
According to a Reuters report, gold dealers in the UK report an extraordinary interest in gold post-Brexit – much of it from first-time buyers. The Pure Gold Company CEO Joshua Saul said British customers are pouring large portions of their wealth into the precious metal:

The speed at which people are purchasing gold is unprecedented. We are seeing people convert as much as 40 to 50% of their net worth into physical gold, (compared to) 5 to 10% in the past.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 19, 2016.