“PADD 1 Is A Holy Mess” – Is This What Finally Drags Crude Oil Lower

Several months ago we reported that the next big threat to oil prices had nothing to do with oil fundamentals, either lack of demand or excess supply, or technicals, i.e., algo buying or selling, and everything to do with the upcoming glut of the most important crude byproduct: gasoline.
Sure enough, now that summer is here, this prediction is playing out just as expected and as Reuters reports, summer driving season is in full swing and American motorists are filling their tanks at a healthy clip, but that is not swelling the profit margins as much as usual at U. S. independent oil refiners such as PBF Energy and Valero Energy Corp.
How come? As it turns out, the optimism that refiners had in the spring that the gasoline excess would clear out has not materialized. During the first quarter earning season, refining executives shrugged off the industry’s lousy earning as an aberration that would be remedied this summer. ‘We still are bullish gasoline and bullish octane,” PBF CEO Tom Nimbley told investors in an earnings call back then. ‘The driving season really hasn’t hit that hard yet.’
It has now, and while Nimbley was right about the surging summer demand, refiner margins are still being squeezed as gasoline and diesel inventories stubbornly sit well above five-year averages. Historically, summer gasoline demand usually fattens margins for refiners with seasonally high levels for the crack spread, the premium of a barrel of gasoline over a barrel of crude oil. But not this year said analysts who expect the situation to remain bleak in the weeks ahead unless there are large drawdowns in inventories.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 7, 2016.