Planet Debt

Low Interest Rate Persons
She is a low-interest-rate person. She has always been a low-interest-rate person. And I must be honest. I am a low-interest-rate person. If we raise interest rates, and if the dollar starts getting too strong, we’re going to have some very major problems.
– Donald Trump
Two low interest rate persons! The Trumpsumptive president (Donald the Tremendous) can be seen here indicating the approximate size of the interest rate that will still keep us out of ‘major problems’.
BALTIMORE – With startling clarity, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee described himself – and Fed chief Janet Yellen. But he could have just as easily been talking about his rival in this year’s presidential elections, Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump had already gone broke – twice – by the time Bill Clinton took office. But then, the combination of lower interest rates and rising asset prices saved him.
And extraordinary abundance and prosperity of the Clinton years owes little to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton and much to the fact that Alan Greenspan had inaugurated his famous ‘Greenspan Put’ in 1987.

This post was published at Acting-Man on July 5, 2016.

Market Update for Purists

Net Lines
It’s that dreaded day after Independence Day. The weather is gorgeous and I don’t really feel like trading either. The thought of just phoning it in had occurred to me, but as the new month just rolled over I thought I may as well take another peek at our monthly charts. Which uncovered quite some interesting perspectives that I’m eager to share.
But no worries – we’re keeping it light and easy today. Consider this a purist’s approach to market analysis as we’re going to ignore everything but Net-Lines.
So what are Net-Lines? Before we get into the thick of it let’s quickly cover the concept of Net-Lines, which is purely price based and as such I don’t consider them ‘indicators’ in the traditional sense. There are in fact two types of Net-Lines, one for the buy and one for the sell side. The rules are pretty trivial:
Net-Line Buy Level (NLBL): Wait for three consecutive lower lows, then take the high of the first candle as your NLBL. The push above that high is your signal to go long.
Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL): Wait for three consecutive higher highs, then take the low of the first candle as your NLSL. A breach below that low is your signal to go short.
That’s pretty simple, isn’t it? No exotic mathematical formulas or price derivatives which may require a PhD in quantum physics to fully grasp. The whole idea here is to identify price inflection points as well as trending behavior. If you’ve been visiting the lair for a while then you know I have been using Net-Lines in the context of our market analysis for many years now.
So let’s get to the goods. Usually we focus on short term and daily charts but today we’ll be exclusively looking at monthly panels. The first one is the E-Mini and it’s the one that actually inspired me to write this post. If you look at the price action over the past five years then what do you see? A lot of red lines below it, correct. Those are monthly Net-Line Sell Levels and we’ve been trading above them almost the entire time. That is bullish of course.

This post was published at Acting-Man on July 5, 2016.

After Losing $100 Billion On Terrible Stock Investments, The World’s Largest Pension Fund Is Doubling Down

Back in December 2014, when we first learned that Japan was willing to risk hundreds of billions in Japanese pensions to boost and prop up the domestic stock market – the only true “”arrow of Abenomics – by shifting cash out of bonds and into stocks in the country’s gargantuan (and world’s biggest) $1.4 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, or GPIF, we wrote that “The GPIF Has A Warning For Japan’s Citizens: Abenomics Better Work, Or Your Pensions Are Toast.”
As the WSJ wrote then, “Japan’s $1.1 trillion government pension fund is betting that a long-term recovery and rising corporate profits will push Tokyo stock prices higher, helping the fund increase returns for the nation’s retirees. Mr. Abe has pushed for the fund to become a more aggressive and sophisticated investor. The fund decided in October to shift its portfolio to seek higher returns, slashing its target allocation to domestic bonds almost in half while nearly doubling that of domestic and foreign equities.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 5, 2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Gold Deliveries For July Getting Hot In New York

And here I thought that July would be a quiet month for gold here in NY.
You can see from the delivery report below that the metal is moving, at least in the sense of changing hands in ownership, if not actually going anywhere in the physical sense. And that assumes it is physical in the first place, and not some hypothecated illusion.
Gold is breaking out. Silver gave us a thrill over the holiday weekend with a run to 21, but has since backed off, but held on to the 20 handle, by its fingernails.
The Non-Farm Payrolls for June will be out at the end of this week. Along with a few other economic goodies that could open the door to further shenanigans.
The British pound dropped to a 30 year low against the dollar at 1.30. Thoughts of a trip to London are crossing my mind on this, but air travel has become so tedious as compared to prior days that I hate to subject ourselves to it. And the queen, while doing well, is still a bit on the fragile side, and requires more rest than usual.
Gold needs to hold prior resistance. Let’s see if it can do it. Silver needs to break out. And that looks promising.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 05 JULY 2016.

Brexit Blowback – The Panic Will Start With Property

The situation is grave. That’s why I don’t say this light-heartedly, but I think it should be said nevertheless.
George Soros made it clear in ‘The Alchemy of Finance’ (1987) that the debt situation had already become quite unsustainable after 1982, and has been sustained only by a symbiosis of governments, central banks and commercial lenders, acting in a balance-of-fear type of environment. The banking system has been on the brink of collapse since then.
Finding this out must make one slightly depressed, looking at the mountain of debt we have managed to amass mostly after the 1980s. PWC measured UK total debt to be 500% of GDP in 2012, no soul has had the courage required to measure it since.
The problem lies mostly with the human tendency to avoid short-term pain. Any top politician, or central banker, who would come out now would most likely cause a crisis. And proving a counter-factual is very hard, as we know, so this person (or institution) would need to take an unbearable amount of blame. Many still blame the Fed for what happened in the 1930s! Sure, mistakes were made, but mistakes will always be made.

This post was published at Zero Hedge by Cathal Haughian via BeforeTheCollapse.com Jul 5, 2016.

“The Dominoes Are Fallling”: Three Largest UK Property Funds Freeze $12 Billion In Assets, More To Come

As first reported last night, and following up this morning, in an episode painfully reminiscent of the Bear hedge fund “freezes” that preceded the bank’s 2008 collapse and the great financial crisis, first the UK’s Standard Life halted trading in its property fund, followed hours later by both Aviva and M&G which likewise announced they are suspending trading in their own portfolio funds. And, as Bloomberg summarizes, three of the U. K.’s largest real estate funds have frozen almost 9.1 billion pounds ($12 billion) of assets after Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union sparked a flurry of redemptions.
These were the first major dominoes to fall as a result of the confusion resulting from the Brexit vote. M&G Investments, Aviva Investors and Standard Life Investments halted withdrawals because they don’t have enough cash to immediately repay investors. About 24.5 billion pounds is allocated to U. K. real estate funds, according to the Investment Association.
The rush by private investors to withdraw money prompted M&G, which held 7.7% in cash before the vote, to suspend its 4.4 billion-pound Property Portfolio fund and Aviva Investors to freeze its 1.8 billion-pound Property Trust on Tuesday. Standard Life halted trading on its 2.9 billion-pound U. K. real estate fund on Monday. The cash position for Aviva and Standard Life’s funds at the end of May was 9.3% and 13.1% respectively.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 5, 2016.

JULY 5/GOLD ON A TEAR!!SWISS BONDS ARE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY FROM 40 YRS OUT/ITALIAN BANKS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE/RENZI ORDERS THAT SHORTING OF MONTE DI PASCHI IS NOT ALLOWED/DEUTSCHE BANK CONTINUES …

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold: $1,356.40 UP $19.70 (comex closing time)
Silver 19.87 UP 33 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1357.00
Silver: 19.97
And now for the July contract month
For the July gold contract month, we had a huge 1,019 notices served upon for 101,900 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery: 4019 for 401900 oz or 12.50 tonnes
In silver we had 326 notices served upon for 1,630,000 oz. The total number of notices filed so far this month for delivery: 682 for 3,410,000 oz
Let us have a look at the data for today
Starting last night on several occasions the bankers tried knocking gold down . At first gold was whacked to 1238.00 but it quickly recovered and by comex trading time it was already in positive territory. Not to be undone, the bankers again whacked gold down to 1244 and again like the Duracell battery rabbit, the gold price rose again. It was the high open interest on gold (as well as silver) that are bothering our bankers. Both gold and silver are within spitting distance of their all time highs in OI Tomorrow’s OI reading (for today’s trading) will be astronomical especially for gold and I can see another raid coming as the bankers are getting quite desperate.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 293.85 tonnes for a loss of 9 tonnes over that period
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In silver, the total open interest rose by a considerable 3139 contracts up to 214,668, AND STILL CLOSE TO AN ALL TIME RECORD. THE OI ROSE AS THE PRICE OF SILVER GALLOPED HIGHER BY 96 CENTS IN FRIDAY’S TRADING. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.073 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 153% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China). The bankers are running FOR THE HILLS as they saw silver jump immediately into the $19 handle today.
In silver we had 326 notices served upon for 1,630,000 oz.
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY A WHOPPING 19,580 contracts with gold’s RISE in price ON FRIDAY to the tune of $18.30.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD
Surprisingly we had no changes in gold inventory./
Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 953.91 tonnes
SLV
No changes in silver inventory at the SLV
Inventory rests at 333.544 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 5, 2016.

Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s Stock Price Down 99.7% Since May 2007 (Massive And Growing Non-performing Loans)

Bloomberg had an interest piece on the EU’s inflexible bank rules regarding Italian banks.
Italy’s non-performing loans at over 20 percent of GDP and the country’s public debt at over 130 percent of GDP, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is running out of time. An EU-approved plan earlier this year to restructure the banks through the state-backed rescue fund Atlante has stalled. With only 4.25 billion euros ($4.8 billion), against 360 billion euros of troubled loans, the rescue fund always looked too small; it has failed to attract sufficient private money. Should Italian depositors lose confidence in their banks, still a very real possibility, the chaos would not only risk a financial collapse in Italy, but would spread through the euro zone. Shares in troubled lender Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is down 20 percent this week, with Italy’s La Stampa newspaper reporting Tuesday that the government is considering a new rescue plan.
Renzi would like to aid the banks without forcing investors to share losses – politically explosive, given that 45 percent of bank debt is held by ordinary Italians – but European Union state aid rules prevent that. He requested a six-month waiver of EU rules that require investors to be ‘bailed-in’ for state aid to be given except in exceptional circumstances.
Yes, Italy’s Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is down 20% this week and, brace yourself, 99.7% since May 2007. As I have said before, many EU banks have never recovered from the credit bubble of the 2000s and the resulting financial crisis of 2008/2009.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ July 5, 2016.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker Fears Being ‘The Counter-Indicating Idiot’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker had a tough year thus far. Scratch that, a tough five years. Parker’s portfolio performance in 1H 2016 was “our worst in more than a half decade” and as all good investment managers do, he hopes for a strong 2H. His hope also has been clearly thought out, as Parker framed his hope parallel to that experienced by desperate golfers who shank the front 9 and hope to bank on the back 9. We just hope his bet on financials won’t make him the “bulge bracket…counter-indicating idiot” he fears becoming (we don’t expect him to improve on Dick Bove’s performance), which might be tough considering that his “MOST Strategic Portoflio” has underperformed the S&P by 5.3% YTD:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 5, 2016.

Elite Prepping Private Compounds As Tech Takes Over: ‘Facebook Could Throw An Election… It’s Scary’

The future is what they filter.
Silicon Valley has taken over, though ultimate control remains in the hands of bankers.
We have reached the point where Facebook is so powerful, experts admit it could rig an election just by geofiltering where voting reminders appear. Google search results can have a similar diminishing effect on democracy. These new elite have control of the information that our society is made up of.
You will vote for those whom they have selected, and you will read views which have been promoted. As the London Telegraph reports:
[Facebook shrugged off] controversy after being accused of deliberately suppressing conservative views in its trending topics section. ‘At the end of the day, there’s nothing restraining Zuck’s vision. One of the jokes we had was that Facebook could throw an election by showing reminders to go vote in certain districts but not others. That’s the level of control it has. It’s scary.’
And if those results aren’t credible, or popular, there could quickly be riots spreading across the country – for instance, both if Donald Trump wins the election, or if he has been cheated out of winning. Regardless of the politics involved, Facebook or Google could swing an election by perhaps 20 points.
That’s a tremendous amount of power that has scarcely been considered, and hardly accounted for. Their is little reason to trust the electoral process, as well as many other institutional processes, when corporate money and social programmers are involved.
The innocent image of quaint kids in hoodies making big money distracts from the underlying quest for power.

This post was published at shtfplan on July 5th, 2016.

IT’S HAPPENING: FIRST ROBOT-POWERED BURGER JOINT THROWS MINIMUM WAGE ARGUMENT OUT THE WINDOW

Eight out of the top ten jobs that employ the majority of Americans currently have a more than 90 percent probability of being replaced by robots in the coming years. People who don’t want to open their eyes to the futuristic reality of robot job takeovers might want to look elsewhere than this article. It’s happening right now.
Via BizPacReview:

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on JULY 5, 2016.

It’s Time to Give a Little Thought to Silver

In a CNBC interview last week, PureFunds CEO Andrew Chanin pointed out that a lot of people don’t really think about silver.
Well, it might be time to give the white metal a little thought.
Silver has risen along with gold since the Brexit vote, and it went into hyper-drive Sunday. The metal rose 8.6% in the two days, peaking at over $21 an ounce for a time on Monday before falling back on profit-taking. It was the biggest two-day gain for silver since 2011.
Chinese demand was a major factor driving the silver price spike, according to Mining.com:
Silver prices hit a two-year high Monday…as the precious metal continues to gain from the safe-haven rally following the UK referendum, driven mostly by a sudden jump in Chinese demand. Asian buyers scooped up vast volumes of physical silver overnight, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most actively traded silver futures contract, hitting its 6% daily maximum at opening to reach 4,419 yuan ($663) a kilogram. Precious metals have risen on anticipation of further monetary stimulus measures from central banks in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 5, 2016.

Asian Metals Market Update: July 5, 2016

There can be profit booking before the US jobs numbers on Thursday and Friday. Nothing extra ordinary has happened over the weekend. No new political developments or surprises can be an excuse for gold and silver to see a correction. The next ten trading sessions is very crucial for gold and silver. They need to break and trade over $1360 and $2152 for another five percent rise before the end of July. Momentum is bullish for gold and silver. But I will prefer cautious optimism in gold. However I will still prefer to use sharp declines to invest in silver. Silver is still undervalued as compared to its precious metals counterparts.
This is the first time that the world has experienced Islamic terror strikes in the holy month of Ramadan. Generally the world peace is at its highest in Ramadan. Safe haven demand whether for the US dollar or precious metals will be there. There should now be a big jump in physical gold and silver demand all over Asia and Europe. Tiny gold and silver retail demand should far outstrip HNI (high net worth individuals) demand. Gold and silver discounts should move into premium as the month progresses.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 5 July 2016.

Turning Lemons into Lemonade as 30-Year T-Bond Yield Falls to All-Time Low

‘I certainly see low bond yields, and I see an environment [where] that’s likely to continue into the future.’
– James Bullard, President, St. Louis Federal Reserve
Back in 2000, only 4.2 million (about 12%) of Americans aged 65 and up were working. Today, about 9 million (18.8%) of older Americans are working – that’s more than at any time since the turn of the century.
Interestingly (or sadly, depending on your view), the trend for the rest of the American population is almost the mirror image. The employment/population ratio of the adult population has not rebounded from the last two recessions.
As of May, the employment/population ratio was 59.9%; that’s below the 62.5% we saw in May 2008 and the 64.5% of May 2000.
Why are so many older Americans working? You could point your finger at several reasons – inadequate savings, the weak economy, and longer life expectancies – but I think one of the biggest reasons is the Federal Reserve’s war on savers.
I’m talking about ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), which has pushed the return on traditional savings vehicles – like bonds and CDs – to almost nothing.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JULY 5, 2016.

Domino #3: M&G Suspends Trading In $6 Billion UK Property Fund

Things are getting bad fast in Britain…
Domino #1: *STANDARD LIFE INV PROPERTY DROPS 15%; TRADING IN FUND SUSPENDED
In a stark flashback to the catalytic event that ultimately brought down Bear Stearns in 2008, and subsequently unleashed the greatest financial crisis in history, last night we reported that Standard Life, has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds for at least 28 days after rapid cash outflows were sparked by fears over falling real estate values.
As we further noted, citing an analyst, ‘given the outflows the sector seems to be experiencing, this could well put downward pressure on commercial property prices,’ said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. ‘The risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property, until such time as sentiment stabilises.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 5, 2016.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: July-05-2016 — Holiday over, U.S. will drive gold and silver prices!

Gold Today -Gold closed in London at $1,344.90 on Monday after Friday’s New York close at $1,343.70. In Asia the gold price stayed in line with London’s gold price, also adjusting for a weaker Yuan.
– The $: slipped to $1.1156 down from $1.1124.
– The dollar index moved lower to 95.54 from 95.73 yesterday.
– The Yen was stronger again at 101.70.
– The Yuan was almost unchanged at 6.6661 from 6.6663 on Monday.
Yuan Gold Fix
We do expect a ‘shunt’ effect in New York as the three global gold markets return to a common view on the gold price. We expect the view that caused New York to take gold and silver prices higher on Friday, ahead of the long weekend; will return to move prices up today. Shanghai pulled the gold price back ahead of New York’s re-entry after Independence Day to a level not far from the close of last Thursday.
The Yuan continues to weaken, as the Yen strengthens.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 5 July 2016.