Goldman Prepares To Turn Bearish On Oil Again; Boosts 2016 Bond Default Target By 25%

Not content with releasing one bearish note per day, Goldman has upped the ante to two (or more).
Following yesterday’s scathing attack on the ECB by Deutsche Bank, Goldman felt the urge to chime in as well parallel to the German bank’s accusations that Goldman’s former employee, Mario Draghi is set to destroy the Eurozone with his monetary lunacy, and in a note by Huw Pill, Goldman said that “as the ECB shifts from a passive, intermediation-driven form of balance sheet expansion towards a more pro-active QE-driven policy, concerns about the impact on financial stability will inevitably and rightly rise.”
Of course, Goldman couldn’t completely run over its former managing director – just imagine the Goldman-related “discovery” that a criminal probe would reveal – and so it tried to mitigate its sharp assessment, saying “yet the ultimate objective of these ‘active’ central bank balance sheet policies is to revive aggregate demand and boost nominal growth. If successful, the beneficial effects of the macroeconomic improvement on financial stability would more than outweigh the short-run and partial implications coming from incentivising greater risk-taking.”
Right. The only problem is that 8 years later, there has been no boost in aggregate demand, in fact just the opposite, not to mention a total collapse in DB stock as a result of NIRP crushing the NIM carry trade, which is why so many banks and pension funds are now furious at the ECB.
However, it wasn’t just the ECB that Goldman took issues with. In a separate note by Goldman’s HY analysts, the firm announced that it has boost its 2016 default forecast by nearly a quarter, from 17% to 21%, and now expects a substantially greater amount of debt – mostly high yield – to default this year.
Here is Goldman’s math:

This post was published at Zero Hedge by Tyler Durden – Jun 9, 2016.


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