Earlier this month, JPMorgan’s Jan Loeys revealed that the bank is underweight equities ‘for the first time this cycle.’
Why? Well, allow Jan to explain it to you:
The fundamentals of growth, earnings and recession risk have not improved, and if anything have worsened. We remain wary of the near-empty ammo box of policy makers. Our 12-month-out US recession odds have risen to 1/3. But even with no recession this year or next, we see US earnings rising only slowly by low single digits and see little to boost multiples. The eventual recession should bring US stocks down some 30%, creating a strong downward risk skew to returns over the next few years.
That came just a day after Mislav Matejka suggested one reason to avoid buying this market: namely that even as equities were down 3% on the year going into March, multiples were actually higher than they were on January 1.
On Monday, we get the latest from Matejka. His advice: fade the ECB. To wit:
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 03/14/2016.