Economists in Fantasyland: Economists See 20% Chance of Recession That’s at Least 20% Likely Already Here

Jon Blogosphere, Economy, Government

Economists have a perfect track record of 100% failure in ability to predict a recession. In a recession that’s at least 20% likely to have already started, Economists See 20% Chance of US Recession this Year.
A Financial Times survey of 51 economists, conducted in the days after the Fed’s January meeting, underscores the impact of the past month’s severe market turbulence and a string of lacklustre economic reports out of the US and China.
The fear that the world’s largest economy – considered the lone engine of global growth – is on the verge of recession has intensified. In the FT’s December survey economists had put the odds of a US recession at 15 per cent during the next two years. Now, they see a one-in-five chance of recession in the next 12 months.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Sunday, January 31, 2016.