The Unexpected Strikes Chicago Again
It was another disastrous month for the Chicago PMI. Economists expected a bounce back from last month’s unexpected dip into negative territory. Instead the numbers reflect what’s best described as a two-month crash.
The Econoday Consensus Estimate was a guess of 50 in a range of 48 to 53. The actual reading of 42.9 was far below any economist’s estimate.
The December Chicago PMI tumbled to a reading of just 42.9, down 5.8 points. The reading was a fresh 6-1/2 year low and the seventh contraction this year. It also was far below expectations of a breakeven reading of 50.
The biggest contributor to the decline was a 17.2 point plunge in order backlogs, to 29.4, marking their eleventh consecutive month in contraction. December’s reading was the lowest since May 2009. The index also was depressed by ongoing weakness in new orders, which contracted at a faster pace, down 5.3 points to 38.8, the lowest level since May 2009. Both production and employment fell into contraction.
This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on December 31, 2015.
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