Existing home sales came in a bit under Bloomberg Econoday Consensus, down 3.4% in October. Year-over-year trends are weakening.
Sales of existing homes are not a source of strength for the economy, down 3.4 percent in October to a slightly lower-than-expected annualized rate of 5.36 million. Year-on-year, sales are up only 3.9 percent which is the lowest for this reading since January. Weakness is split roughly even between single-family homes, down 3.7 percent in the month to a 4.75 million rate, and condos, down 1.6 percent to a 610,000 rate.
Lack of homes on the market, in a reflection of price weakness, remains a major factor holding down sales. Supply relative to sales is at 4.8 months, up slightly from the prior month but still below the 5.2 months of October last year. A reading of 6.0 months is considered a balanced market. The number of homes on the market, at 2.14 million, is actually below the 2.24 million this time last year, an unwanted surprise that the National Association of Realtors, which compiles the existing home sales report, calls “disturbing”.
Price data for October are once again weak, down 0.9 percent for both the median (at $219,600) and the average (at $262,800). Year-on-year, the median is up 5.8 percent with the average up 3.4 percent.
Regional sales data show a sharp decline in the West, down 8.7 percent in the month for a year-on-year gain of 2.7 percent. The South, which is the largest housing region, also shows weakness, down 3.2 percent for only a 0.5 percent year-on-year gain. The Northeast and Midwest were little changed in October with year-on-year appreciation very solid for both, in the high single digits.
This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 23, 2015.
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