Can Investors Trust the New Gold Fixing?

Statistical Analysis of the New Gold Fixing
Since 20 March 2015 a new gold price fixing organized by the London Bullion Market Association has been in operation. It has replaced the previous price determination process, which was in place for more than a century and became subject to criticism as it was highly vulnerable to manipulation. Has manipulation now ceased?
There are two gold price fixings in London, an AM one and a PM one. Statistical studies have shown evidence of price anomalies around these points in time during the previous fixing process that suggested price manipulation was taking place. I have first drawn attention to the anomalies surrounding the fixings in 2002. At the time I introduced an examination method designed to uncover price manipulation based on creating an average of intraday price performance. This study showed regularly repeating price declines around the time of the fixing.
We want to examine now whether anything has changed with respect to price manipulation since the introduction of the new fixing process. The chart below shows the average intraday price performance of all days since the introduction of the new fixing until early October, this is to say over a time period of approximately six months. The right hand scale shows the price, the x-axis scale the time of the day (US EST).

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 22, 2015.