Bond Yields Grind Higher As December Rate Hike Suddenly All Too Real

It’s different this time… The last two times that Fed hike probabilities (and thus timing of liftoff) surged, the long-end of the bond market rallied (suggesting a premature hike would slow the economy medium-term). The last few days, since The FOMC Statement, Treasury yields have surged (with the short-end underperforming) as 10Y tops 2.25% and 30Y nears 3.00%. As BofAML noted, “if The Fed hikes rates and the long end yield tumbles, that means policy failure,” and so we suspect, in all its confirming-bias perfection, the long-end is being sold to ‘convince’ the world that The Fed is right to raise rates.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/03/2015.