Dennis “Every Futures Broker’s Best Friend” Gartman Does It Again (Again)

While we haven’t heard the term “churn ’em and burn ’em” for a while, we can only assume that world-renowned newsletter-writer Dennis Gartman is long futures brokers (in commission terms) as in the space of just 3 trading days he has flip-flopped (once again) from “the most bullish I’ve been” to “you have to fade the oil market here” with WTI trading at almost the exact same price level. If you listen carefully, even CNBC’s Melissa Lee is starting to get the joke…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.

The Fed Just ‘Discovered’ Another $2.7 TRILLION In Debt: ‘Quietly Boosted Total Credit’

The people of the United States, misled by its politicians, and plundered by its financial institutions, are swimming in so much debt that no one will probably ever grasp the truly staggering amount – if indeed it can ever be fully calculated.
Forget paying it all back; the Federal Reserve isn’t even apparently aware of how deep the crisis goes.
Officially, the U. S. was already $59 trillion in debt in 2015, but now the number is significantly higher.
When the Fed is changed its method of tracking and reporting debt numbers, and replaced a single Credit Market Instruments chart with two separate charts for ‘debt securities’ and ‘loans,’ it suddenly reported an additional $2.7 trillion.

This post was published at shtfplan on October 12th, 2015.

Thousands Of Angry Unpaid Chinese Workers Protest Shocking Bankruptcy Of Major Telecom Supplier

When two weeks ago we reported what may have been the biggest layoff announcement in China’s current economic turmoil, after the second largest coal company Longmay Group announced it would lay off 100,000 – or about 40% of its entire workforce – while dramatic, the news did not shock too many. After all, China’s commodity fiasco (as a reminder, as we first reported, at current commodity prices more than half of Chinese companies do not generate enough cash flow to even cover their interest expense) is known to most and as such rationalization of this kind are only just starting: it is not exactly clear how China will deal with millions of suddenly unemployed workers, but it will only cross that bridge when it comes to it.
Far more disturbing was today’s news from China’s prosperous, and far more high-tech, city of Shenzhen, and specifically major telecom supplier Fu Chang Electronic Technology Co. (also known as Fosunny), which supplies parts to domestic telecommunication giants such as Huawei Technologies Co and ZTE Corp. as well as international telecom companies like Vodafone and AT&T.
The company made headlines last week after reports that it had told clients it was planning to list on the stock exchange. The news couldn’t have been more wrong because on Thursday, instead of going public, the company announced it would be going dark instead when it issued a statement saying it was ceasing operations due to liquidity problems resulting from legal and debt issues.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.

Here Is NIRP, Negative Interest Rates, Gold More Important Than Ever

Precious metals prices enter the new week looking to extend the rally that began Oct. 2nd. Silver has gained nearly 10%, and gold is up almost 3.5%. The notion that the Federal Reserve governors may have missed their window to raise interest rates is beginning to sink in with investors.
In fact, if the U. S. economy should fall into recession, investors may see central planners move from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) to the launch of negative interest rates.
The minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting reveal Janet Yellen and company are looking to the socialists in Europe for ideas, and central bankers there have already experimented with negative interest rate policy (NIRP).
Bottom line: You should soon expect to start paying interest for the ‘privilege’ oflending your savings to a bank!
This week, investors will be watching reports on inflation, retail sales, and industrial production. The prospect of recession continues to loom larger, despite a small rally in stock prices. For now, investors seem more focused on the delay in hiking interest rates than deteriorating fundamentals
Precious Metals: More Important Than Ever in Your Portfolio
Nobody is talking about it these days, but we still live in an inflationary age. Wall Street is fixated on the possibility of deflation as prices for crude oil fall and headline Consumer Price Index flat-lines. But the wheels of global inflation continue to turn.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on October 12, 2015.

Fed Officials Call For NIRP To Prop Up The Economy As The Collapse Accelerates – Episode 789a

The following video was published by X22Report on Oct 12, 2015
Central Bankers decide to impose stricter capital controls in Greece. Youth homelessness is on the rise in UK. Gallup reveals that Americans are using gas saving to purchase more gas and things they need not want. .1% of the US households have as much wealth as the other 90%. Central banks are selling treasury bonds at an accelerating pace. The FED is now calling for NIRP and a ban on cash. The TPP will increase the cost of drugs to the everyday person. The TTIP is pushing the privatization of water

Have We Reached “Peak Fedspeak”?

One of the things you may have noticed about last month’s ‘most important’ Fed meeting in recent memory is that the market has completely lost track of the narrative.
Indeed, keeping up with the various competing dynamics that constant central banker meddling has helped to create is nearly impossible and now that the FOMC has admitted that it’s at least partially (and probably wholly) market dependent, the reflexivity problem (or, the ‘removing of the fourth wall’ to quote Deutsche Bank) clouds the picture so much that it’s no longer even clear that there is a correct interpretation.
Of course the FOMC doesn’t do itself any favors when Fed presidents (and most especially Janet Yellen) do so much speaking that you’d think they were on tour promoting a book. Between the convoluted, self-referential reaction function and the cacophony of speakers, the market just simply can’t process it all and with that, we bring you the following from RBS’ Alberto Gallo who asks if perhaps we have reached ‘peak Fed speak’.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:
Gold: $1164.90 up 8.60 (comex closing time)
Silver $15.86 up 5 cents.
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold $1163.90
Silver: $15.86
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 1 notices for 100 ounces Silver saw 33 notices for 165,000 oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 207.65 tonnes for a loss of 95 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest rose by a considerable 18 contracts despite the fact that silver was up by only 5 cents on Friday. I guess in silver nobody of importance wants to leave the arena. The total silver OI now rests at 159,302 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .797 billion oz or 114% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI rose to 433,793 for a gain of 4611 contracts. We had 63 notices filed for 6300 oz today.
We had no changes in tonnage at the GLD / thus the inventory rests tonight at 687.20 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. It sure looks like 670 tonnes will be the rock bottom inventory in GLD gold. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV / Inventory rests at 315.152 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 12, 2015.

And What’s Going to Happen at the Next Recession?

The Government’s strange and awesome powers
By Larry Kummer, Editor of the Fabius Maximus website: Six years after the recession ended, we are due for another recession. Many experts say that the government is ‘out of bullets’ to fight the next severe downturn. That’s quite false because 2008 marked the start of a new era in which our leaders manage the business cycles using strange and awesome tools. We’ll learn the long-term effects of these tools slowly, probably only decades later.
‘All is not lost until you run out of airspeed, altitude, and ideas.’ – Pilots’ wisdom.
Expect the next recession
Free market economic systems produce greater growth than any other system yet tried. Business cycles – and recessions – are a price we pay for the growth. They’re unpredictable, literally so: the consensus of economists has never predicted one. They can destroy years of growth, and change the course of nations. The 2008 crash did both, as shown by this slide from a typically excellent analysis by Brad DeLong.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Fabius Maximus ‘ October 12, 2015.

Mark Dice: Man on the Street Has No Idea What Silver Is Worth

Mark Dice is at it again with one of his ‘man on the street’ interviews that never fail to expose how naive and ignorant the American public is. This time he walked around with a 100 ounce silver bar, and offered to give it away to anyone who could guess how much it was worth. They could win it, even if their estimate was off by 50%. If you’ve seen any of his othervideos, you probably already know what happened next.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on October 12th, 2015.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Lazy Holiday Trade – Daffodils In Search of Grace

“If someone cannot feel the power of God when they look upon the stars, then I doubt whether they are capable of any feelings at all.’
“Our Lord’s love shines forth as much in the simplest of souls as it does in the most highly gifted, as long as there is no refusal offered to his grace.”
Marie-Franoise Thrse Martin de Lisieux
Today was Columbus Day in the US and Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Plus the weather in the northeastern US was absolutely gorgeous, typical of early Autumn.
So needless to say the adults were occupied with other things than equities, the bond markets being closed and the economic news and the banks taking a day off.
Gold rallied up and then fell back a bit from the high as did silver.
These two precious metals are at very key overhead resistance levels. 1166 for gold and 16 for silver are two areas to watch. You can see why on the charts.
The better miners are showing quite a few interesting potential chart formations as well. IF they work then things could get interesting. But that is a big IF, related to the remarks about the bullion prices above.
The Bucket Shop was very quiet last Friday. The only interesting thing is the buildup of gold bullion in their Hong Kong warehouses, notably Brinks.
Other than that, it is status quo, with a slow bleed of bullion out of the West, flowing towards the East.
Speaking of Western ghost towns, Mitsui is said to be pulling out of the precious metals trade in New York and London. Who wants to stand around watching some lame wiseguys shifting the pea under the shells for the bewilderment of the tourists?
As for me, I spent some time outside putting the final touches on a ‘dog ramp’ that my son and I built for the old family pooch. She is starting to have trouble navigating the back steps up and down at night.
So, all in all, it was a good day.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 12 OCTOBER 2015.

Why Oil Is Tumbling: Oil Hedges Were Just Rolled Over

One year ago, when oil prices first cracked and tumbled from $100 to a level some 60% lower, it took the US oil industry about 9 months to fully feel the pain and proceed with cash-saving production cuts as a result of extensive oil-price hedges that had been put on at the historical price, cushioning the blow from the price collapse driven by a drop in global oil demand coupled with a surge in Saudi oil production. The impact of these hedges was largely muted by the summer of 2015 when we first saw a notable decline in US oil production which had recently hit record levels.
And with oil volatility surging in recent months, oil producers needed to take advantage of a rally, technical or otherwise, and an oil vol lull to reestablish hedges, even if it meant at far lower prices than recent benchmarks.
This is precisely what happened in the past week following one of the most torrid surges in the price of oil seen in recent years.
So ahead of looming re-determinations, crude oil producers which piled into this decidely technical-driven rally to hedge aggressively in order to show a more stable asset base for creditors, but more importantly, to offload further price decline risks to their counterparties. Today’s reversal off $50 along with a surge in oil volatility suggests hedging activity has been aggressive, as further confirmed by Reuters..
And as a result of a new bevy of hedges put on around $50/barrell which coupled with the recent decline in the oil VIX leading to slightly cheaper hedges, firms can once again continue to produce at even lower prices as they have rebased their hedges thereby buying themselves a few more months of production at even lower prices – offsetting Saudi record production pressures. The biggest loser in this US hedging effort – the dwindling Saudi budget. The biggest winners: oil majors and other companies who rolled hedges for another 6-9-12 months, allowing crank up the production spiggot to max and generate an incremental burst in both cash flow, and production.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.

If You Thought China’s Equity Bubble Was Scary…

Don’t look at their corporate bonds…
As Bloomberg details, as the rout in Chinese stocks this year erased $5 trillion of value, investors fled for safety in the nation’s red-hot corporate bond market. They may have just moved from one bubble to another.
The risk of a downward spiral in debt prices has increased after investors took on leverage to amplify their returns, according to Ping An Securities Co. The monthly volume of bond repurchase agreements — a form of borrowing used by investors to increase their buying power — has jumped 83 percent from January to 39 trillion yuan in September, according to data from the Chinamoney website.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.

Backwards Capitalism: Unprofitable Companies Outperforming For Last 15 Years

Many portfolio managers have spent hours backtesting numerous variables looking for the holy grail of capital markets. Theoretically, profit margins should be the ultimate driver of returns. Indeed, they are. However, which direction the profits are driving the stock price is another matter.
Zero Hedge recently featured a study by Convergex’ Nick Colas that showed how the most unprofitable biotech companies had the highest returns.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 10/12/2015.

Hillary Clinton, Dead Rats, Toilet Paper Politics

To some, TPP stands for Trans Pacific Partnership (an alleged free trade agreement). To me it’s synonymous with toilet paper, with a dangling P at the end that stands for politics.
I will get around to “dead rats” in a bit. First let’s discuss how Hillary Clinton fits into the picture.
45 times Secretary Clinton Pushed TPP, She Doesn’t Now
CNN reports 45 times Secretary Clinton pushed the trade bill she now opposes.
The Slate reports Hillary Clinton Comes Out Against TPP, at Least Until the Democratic Convention.
Hillary Clinton, who as Secretary of State in 2012 said the Trans-Pacific Partnership ‘sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field,’ has… come out against TPP.
‘I’m continuing to learn about the details of the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, including looking hard at what’s in there to crack down on currency manipulation, which kills American jobs, and to make sure we’re not putting the interests of drug companies ahead of patients and consumers. But based on what I know so far, I can’t support this agreement,” said Clinton.
Hmmm. I have two questions.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on October 12, 2015.